Zambian Kwacha Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    The overall trend of the exchange rates throughout the given timeline seems to demonstrate a slight increase. The starting value of ZMW starts from 0.05852 and over time, it increases, reaching its height at 0.05860, then a drastic drop is seen down to 0.05742 followed by an increase and a steady state around 0.05756. Therefore, although the data points fluctuate, there's a minimal increasing trend.

    Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    From the given data set, it's challenging to identify any clear seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates due to the short timeframe. The data provided is for a single day, where the influence of seasonality or recurring patterns tends to be negligible. These patterns might be caught if the data spans across multiple months or years. However, certain periods of modest regularity are noticed. For instance, the exchange rates showed mild stability around the values 0.05855 and 0.05757.

    Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on trend or seasonality

    There is an apparent outlier in the dataset where the ZMW dropped dramatically from 0.05859 to 0.05762. This point does not fit the overall slight increasing trend and observed rate fluctuation throughout the data, and may be the result of an error or an unusual event not captured in this data.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Yesterday

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Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The data set shows that the ZMW exchange rate primarily fluctuates between the values of 0.05875 and 0.05888 over the course of the given time period. There appears to be a slight increase at around the 06:20 timestamp to a peak of 0.05887 at 07:00, then a gradual decrease until a low of 0.05875 at 23:15, following which it stabilizes again to around 0.05876. The data seems to reflect a relatively stable rate with minor fluctuations throughout the timestamps.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    From an initial analysis of the data provided, there isn't a clear evidence of strong seasonality or recurring patterns in the data. However, a slight increase in the exchange rate can be noticed toward the early hours of the timestamp interval, peaking usually around 07:00, followed by a gradual decrease and stabilization until the end of the interval. This kind of pattern seems to repeat across the data but would need further statistical analysis to confirm any seasonality.

    Observation of Outliers

    Given the minor fluctuations in the range of the exchange rate throughout the period under review, it's hard to establish significant outliers. The exchange rate seems to lie predominantly within the range of 0.05875 and 0.05888. The peaks reached in the early hours at around 07:00 could be considered as potential outliers, but their recurrence might also suggest them as part of a larger trend rather than isolated incidences.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    Upon analysis of the time series data, the overall trend observed in the exchange rates is that the value declines in the first half of the data set, reaching a low around the 2024-02-16 10:00:03 mark, and then begins to rise, reaching a high towards the end of the data set on 2024-02-20 12:00:03. After this point, the rates start to decline. There is a clear downward trend in the first half and upward in the second half.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    No clear seasonality or recurring patterns can be identified in the given dataset. The rise and fall in the exchange rate do not appear to be cyclical or follow a repeating pattern. Certain short-term increases or decreases are observed throughout the period, but these are inconsistent and do not indicate a seasonal cyclical pattern. Observations for a more extended period would be required to make a definite statement on the presence or absence of seasonality.

    Outliers in the Exchange Rates

    There are some interesting observations to be made regarding potential outliers. Between 2024-02-13 08:00:04 to 2024-02-16 06:00:02, there is a sharp rise in the exchange rate. Its value abruptly rises well beyond the trend observed in the surrounding timestamps, suggesting this period as an outlier. Another notable instance is between 2024-02-20 06:00:02 to 2024-02-21 06:00:02, where the rate similarly rises drastically compared to its value at neighboring timestamps.

    Note

    No external events such as market opening/closing hours, weekend/holidays, or key financial news and reports have been considered in this analysis. The analysis is made solely based on the time series data provided.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Upon examining the provided dataset, it can be observed that there is a general upward trend in the ZMW currency exchange rate from the beginning of 19th Feb 2024 to around 20th Feb 2024. Specifically, it starts around a rate of 0.05445 and increases till it reaches a high of about 0.0595. Post that, it may be observed that the exchange rate seems to go through a period of fluctuation but generally maintains at the high level until about the end of 20th Feb 2024. Starting 21st February 2024, the exchange rate began to decrease with slight fluctuations, dropping to approximately 0.05902 by 22nd February, after which it saw another minor increase to about 0.05909. Post this there is a sharp decrease in the exchange rate, reaching a low of around 0.05865 by 23rd February 2024. Hence, overall the exchange rate initially shows an upward trend, maintains around its peak for a short period, and then declines.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, the data does not provide a long enough timescale to conclusively determine any such patterns. Monthly or yearly time series data would be more suitable to identify seasonality. However, if we ignore the timescale and just analyse the dataset purely by comparing the values, we notice a repeated pattern of growth followed by a decline and flattened period at different points during these few days, creating a wave-like pattern. This could demonstrate that the market for this currency pair tends to be volatile in the short term.

    3. Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

    Specifically speaking of outliers, there is a sudden jump in the exchange rate between 06:00:02 to 07:00:02 on 19th February 2024 from 0.05445 to 0.05893 which is a significant increase compared to the rest of the data points. Aside from this, no other significant outliers can be observed in this dataset.

    It should be noted, however, that in a high-frequency time series like this, lack of data for certain periods (for example, the intervals between 07:00:02 and 09:00:03 on February 19th and 21st) might result in outliers appearing more dramatic when they may be a part of the normal trend not visible due to data gaps.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Upon the analysis of this time series data, it's clear that the exchange rates for the ZMW currency is relatively stable. The smallest value of the exchange rate in this period is 0.05859, and the maximum value is 0.05899. Over the provided time frame, the ZMW exchange rate does not appear to exhibit a pronounced increasing or decreasing trend but rather moved around a relatively tight range.

    Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    There doesn't seem to be an obvious seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates within the period in consideration. While there may be minor differences in the rates at different timestamps, these changes do not form a discernible pattern or cycle that repeats over a certain period. Therefore, the exchange rate changes appear to be more random than seasonal.

    Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

    After going through the data, it doesn't seem like there are any extreme outliers where the exchange rate sharply deviates from the overall trend. This suggests that the exchange rates have been relatively consistent and within a predictable range throughout the period in question.

    Please note that this analysis is based only on the available data provided and doesn't consider any external factors, such as news events, that might have an impact on the exchange rates.