Zambian Kwacha Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analysis

The provided series of data represents changes in the ZMW exchange rate at different timestamps on April 25, 2024.

Overall Trend

The exchange rate seems to be modestly decreasing over the given timestamp. The exchange rate starts at 0.05248 at the beginning timestamp (00:00:02) then sees a moderate decrease and arrives at 0.05188 by the last timestamp (23:55:02).

Seasonality or recurring patterns

On a closer examination of the data, it appears there's no clear seasonality or recurring pattern. The highest frequency of changes in the exchange rate appears more random and does not demonstrate a cyclical pattern within the given timestamp. This might suggest the presence of various influencing factors, or that the time frame analyzed is too short to exhibit clear seasonality.

Outliers

Most of the exchange rates in the dataset stayed within a narrow range. The major outlier is the sudden dip to 0.05192 at 06:20:02, which quickly recovered to the initial range. It also worth mentioning the slight spike of the exchange rate to 0.05214 at 08:15:02.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Based on the time series data provided, a comprehensive analysis of the Zambian kwacha (ZMW) exchange rate was done, taking into consideration the trend, seasonality, and any outliers. Here are the major findings.

1. Trend Analysis:

The overall trend of the ZMW exchange rate during the period shown exhibits minor fluctuations. It started at 0.05308 and ended at 0.05248. Thus, it shows a slight downward trend overall. The peak value lies at 0.05317 while the lowest value is at 0.05236. The exchange rate appears to be slightly volatile but within a very narrow range.

2. Seasonality:

As for seasonality, in this particular dataset and the given timestamp, there doesn't appear to be a strong or repetitive pattern. The rate generally fluctuates around a specific range, indicating there may not be a significant seasonal variance within the course of a day.

3. Outliers:

Upon reviewing the data, there does not seem to be any significant outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what is generally observed in the trend. The biggest drop in exchange rate occurs from 0.05317 to 0.05239. However, this drop is still relatively small and might be due to routine transactions.

In summary, the ZMW exchange rate during this time period shows a minor downward trend, no significant seasonal patterns, and no significant outliers. Given the context and constraints, this analysis excludes potential impacts of external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Comprehensive Analysis of Exchange Rate Data

First things first, it is essential to mention that the timestamps given are in a five-minute interval. The data suggests the observations were made 24/7 as we see timestamps for all hours and days during the presented period. Now, here are the detailed analysis findings:

1. Overall Trend Analysis

The overall trend of the exchange rate data shows a fluctuation range. However, towards the end of the dataset, there's a slightly lower range. No significant increase or decrease trend is noted over the time frame provided. The rates remain relatively consistent within the range 0.05285 to 0.05314.

2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Given the short period of the dataset (only from 2024-04-23 00:00:02 to 2024-04-23 23:55:02), it's challenging to identify any seasonal patterns. Recurring daily patterns could only be effectively identified with data over a more extended period. However, the dataset shows small fluctuations between certain ranges within short periods throughout the day, which could be a sign of intraday trading volatility.

3. Outliers and Large Fluctuations

Within the given dataset, the rates seem to remain within a consistent range without large spikes or drops, indicating low volatility. After scanning through the dataset, no significant outliers were identified in this exchange rate. The observed rates were overall stable and stayed within a narrow scope.

In conclusion, this analysis provides insight into the currency exchange rate's behavior during a single day. The fluctuating yet stable range suggests controlled trading activity. For a more comprehensive understanding of the exchange rate's behavior, more elaborate data for an extended duration, including days, weeks, and months, would be required. The observed movement and fluctuations could be due to regular market trading activities, which inherently have a level of volatility.

Summary of Last Month

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

The provided dataset depicts the exchange rate fluctuation of a specific currency (ZMW) over time. By analyzing this dataset, we can derive some insights on its performance trends, potential recurring patterns, and any notable outliers. Here is the detailed interpretation:

Trend Analysis

Over the considerable period captured by this data, there seems to be a slow but overall reduction in the ZMW exchange rate. The rate starts at an initial value of 0.0535 and gradually reduces to a final recorded value of 0.05308. This trend might imply that the forex market for ZMW has experienced a slight depreciation over this period. However, the marginal rate of decrease is quite small suggesting a reasonable level of stability in its forex performance.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

On a closer examination of the data, there don't appear to be distinct seasonality patterns or truly repetitive fluctuations at regular intervals. The exchange rate demonstrates minor variability, oscillating between specific close ranges, but without a clear repetitive pattern that could hint at a seasonal effect. This indicates that this particular exchange rate might not be largely impacted by time-dependent factors, or the data period may not be long enough to exhibit the full seasonal fluctuation.

Outliers and Anomalies Observation

Outliers in exchange rate data usually present as sharp hikes or drops contrasting the general trend. In our dataset, significant anomalies are not readily observable. A minor drop can be noted around the timestamp '2024-04-22 06:25:02' where the rate drops marginally from 0.05348 to 0.05309. While this is noticeable within the context of this dataset, it's relatively small and can still be within common market fluctuation bounds. Therefore, it's arguable whether it qualifies as a genuine outlier.

In conclusion, the ZMW exchange rate within this dataset displays an overall declining trend and does not appear to follow a clear-cut seasonal pattern. The absence of significant outliers indicates a general stability in the exchange rate with only slight fluctuations within the observed timeframe.

Summary of Last Week

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Overall Trend Analysis

Through an initial examination of the dataset, it is observed that the ZMW exchange rate exhibits fluctuation over the defined period. The rate consistently swings between certain value boundaries signifying a possible existence of an overall trend.

2. Identification of Seasonality or Recurrent Patterns

While the data exhibits some range-bound movement, a clear seasonal or recurrent pattern is not immediately noticeable. More extensive analysis using specialized statistical methods might potentially reveal subtle seasonal or recurrent patterns that aren't visually obvious.

3. Outliers Identification

To accurately identify any outliers would require statistical measures that are outside the scope of this question due to the absence of the deviation measurement request. Nonetheless, visually the data doesn't seem to have significant spikes or drops, indicating the absence of extreme outliers.

4. Considering External Factors

For a thorough understanding of shifts in exchange rates, analyzing the impact of external factors, including but not limited to, market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, release of key financial news and reports would usually be beneficial. These factors, among others, have the potential to dynamically affect exchange rates. Unfortunately, without the explicit directive to incorporate these factors in the present analysis, such a conclusion remains largely speculative.

5. No Forecast Generated

As per the request, no forecasting for future exchange rates is performed in this analysis. It is therefore important to note that, while trends and patterns may be identified from the data provided, such patterns are historically based and may not predict future performance accurately.

To briefly summarize, the exchange rate of ZMW appears to exhibit a stable fluctuation pattern within certain thresholds over the defined dataset. While a clear seasonal or recurrent pattern may not be ascertainable, the regular oscillations suggest an underpinning system influencing the rate changes. Meanwhile, factors that would have potentially influenced any outlier instances or major changes in patterns (like market dynamics or significant financial news) are not accounted for.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend

The overall trend of the exchange rates over the period seems to be negative. This is signified by the fact that the first timestamped exchange rate is 0.05506 and the last is 0.05352, which shows a decrease. However, the given data does not follow a single direction but rather fluctuates throughout the period. The highest exchange rate in the dataset is 0.05518 while the lowest is 0.05348, both of which also show a wider range of fluctuations.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Based on the data provided, it is not possible to identify any clear seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates as the timestamps are on an hourly basis and do not span a sufficient time frame (days, months, or years) for seasonality to be determined. Exchange rates are often influenced by a wide array of economic and geopolitical factors and thus can fluctuate on an hourly, daily or annual basis but the reasons behind these could need a more in-depth study of the period of such patterns

3. Outliers in the Data

In terms of outliers, there are several points where the exchange rate differs from the range of fluctuations. A few of these instances include times when the exchange rate dips as low as 0.05348 or even goes as high as 0.05518. These values are significantly below or above the median of the given dataset respectively and are considered outliers. These points could potentially be driven by various market factors, or could represent data errors or anomalies.

In conclusion, this dataset provides an intriguing overview of the current exchange rate fluctuations. However, it doesn't allow us to establish a clear trend or seasonality directly due to its short period span. Additionally, few outliers in the data suggest that it might be influenced by distinct factors, or these could be due to data anomalies.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

From the dataset provided, it can be observed that the exchange rates are relatively stable with minimal fluctuations. The exchange rates slightly increased from a base of 0.05369 at the starting time to reach 0.05372, but eventually declined and hovered around 0.05356. Towards the end of the period, there was a slight uptick in the rates, reaching 0.05358.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Although the timeframe provided is quite short to unmistakably ascertain any seasonal or recurring patterns, certain trends can be inferred upon closer observation. It can be seen that there are minor fluctuations in exchange rates occurring within short intervals. Exchange rates seemed to decline slightly at certain times, followed by a minor increase. However, there is no consistent pattern that could suggest a daily or hourly seasonality within the set data.

Outliers in the Exchange Rates

In this dataset, there are no significant outliers, or instances where the exchange rate show substantial variation from the predominant trend. The rates changed within a relatively small range, staying generally between 0.05348 and 0.05372. This indicates a steady market condition for the ZMW during this specific timeframe.