Summary of Last Week
- Difference of Opening & Closing:
- Daily High:
- Daily Low:
- Difference of Daily High & Low:
- Standard Deviation:
Understanding the Overall Trend
The data provided extends from 2024-01-26 to 2024-02-23. During this period, there's an evident fluctuation in exchange rates which signifies volatility in the market. The rates begin at 30.7645 and declines to 30.47573 towards the end. This signifies a downward trend in the general movement of the exchange rates. However, this is not a drastic drop and there are several intervals of increase as well.
Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns
Despite being replete with short-term volatility, the data does not signal any consistent or significant seasonal patterns when we look at it on a day-to-day basis. That being said, there are slight elevations in the exchange rates intermittently (e.g. on 2024-02-16 from 31.26172 to 31.61356), suggesting that there might be some cyclical effects at play but these are neither strong nor highly predictable.
Noting any Outliers
In time-series analysis, outliers can be identified as those points that deviate significantly from the trend. For instance, on 2024-02-16, the exchange rate spike up to 31.61356 which is noticeably higher compared to the data points around that time. Additionally, towards the end of the period under examination, on 2024-02-23, the rate drops to 30.47573, which is significantly lower than the rates preceding it, marking it as a potential outlier.
Overall, these findings underline the importance of keeping an eye on variations in exchange rates even within a generally oscillating trend. While the data does follow a general downward trajectory, we do note higher volatility and significant outliers that warrant attention. Although there are moments of increase, they are followed by subsequent drops leading to the overall declining trend. Therefore, short-term investment opportunities may arise from these spikes and drops, however, in the long-run, the economic expectations should be aligned with the overall descending trend. It's crucial to consider that these analyses are purely based on historical data and volatility patterns, and do not include external influences such as political environment, fiscal policies, and other macro and microeconomic variables which can significantly influence foreign exchange rates.