Forint Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The overall trend of the data seems to be stable. The exchange rate value has mostly remained between a small range of 0.00373 to 0.00376. The exchange rate at the starting timestamp is 0.00374. It saw a marginal increase to the highest point at 0.00376 and then became stable again at 0.00374. There aren't any significant increasing or decreasing trends in the provided dataset.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    From the data provided, it is hard to establish clear seasonality or recurring patterns. The data do not show major fluctuations that repeat at regular intervals. Time-series data over longer periods of time would be required to give a more accurate assessment of any potential seasonality or recurring patterns.

    Notable Outliers

    In terms of outliers, the dataset shows no significant outliers. The exchange rates have remained within a very narrow band. This suggests that throughout the given time period, the exchange rate was rather stable and did not experience any extreme events that caused significant devaluation or appreciation in currency value.

    The data might not gives the full picture of the currency fluctuations. Examining data over a more extended period or considering external factors such as key financial news or changes in economic policy could potentially yield different insights.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Overall trend of Exchange Rates

    The overall trend of the data points over the period shown seems consistently stable at approximately 0.00374 - 0.00375 HUF. However, the rate has witnessed a negligible but noticeable increase from 0.00375 to 0.00376 at one point, followed by a mild decrease in exchange rate ranging from 0.00376 to 0.00374, but eventually seems to settle at around 0.00374 towards the end of the period. Please note that the observed changes are marginal and might not indicate a significant trend in the exchange rate.

    2. Seasonality or recurring patterns

    With the dataset provided and without accounting for any external factors, it's challenging to identify any visible seasonality or recurring patterns. The data seems fairly consistent, with minor fluctuations happening throughout the given period. A more granular view (e.g., data grouped by hour of day, day of week, etc.) or a larger dataset expanding across more variant periods may assist in identifying if there is indeed any seasonality inherent in these exchange rates.

    3. Outliers in the exchange rates

    The dataset does not appear to show any significant outliers where the exchange rate differs significantly from the typical range. However, there are minor fluctuations where the rates have slightly increased or decreased. The data is generally consistent around the 0.00374 - 0.00375 HUF, indicating a lack of significant deviations that can be classified as outliers. This uniformity could be due to the controlled trading environment or low volatility in the considered period.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Generally, the overall exchange rate between USD/HUF have stayed relatively stable throughout the recorded period. Most of the time the exchange rate hovers around the 0.00376 range with only minor fluctuations, with certain periods experiencing very slight increases up to 0.00377.

    Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    Given the data set, it is difficult to identify any obvious seasonality or recurring patterns within the time-frame provided due to the stable nature of the rates. However, some fluctuation between 0.00376 and 0.00377 can be noted, but it does not appear to follow any regular or cyclical pattern. It would require a longer time series or more granular data (like hourly data) to identify any possible intraday trends or patterns.

    Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly

    Throughout the data set, there are no significant instances of outliers. The data variance is quite minimal with the range of exchange rate mostly remaining within the 0.00376 and 0.00377 band. This signifies that during this period, the exchange rate didn't fluctuate significantly which indicates a period of relative stability in the exchange rate.

    In conclusion, the dataset represents a period of relative stability in the USD/HUF exchange rates with minimal fluctuation. The rate remained within a very tight band during this window. There are no clear cyclical or seasonal patterns identifiable within this time period, and there aren't any significant outliers in the data.

    Note

    Please note that the analysis is based solely on the provided data and does not consider other external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    Overall, the HUF exchange rate within the dataset appears to be fairly stable. The rate starts at 0.00378, hits a low of 0.00372 about halfway through the period, and then rises back to a maximum of 0.0038 before closing the period at 0.00376. Despite some fluctuations, the rate does not present considerable changes, and the general trend could be interpreted as stable.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    From the provided data, any discernible patterns or seasonality trends in the exchange rates over the represented period seem to be minimal. The frequency of the data, given in a 2-hour interval, does not allow us to determine clear daily patterns. However, it's important to note that the stability of the HUF exchange rate doesn't imply the absence of patterns, but rather, this could be indicative of other external factors at play.

    Noting Outliers

    Given the stability of the HUF rate over the represented period, there doesn't appear to be any significant outlier in the data. Outliers would often be defined as values that deviate significantly from the mean, but all values in this dataset lie within a close range. This might imply that during this period, the exchange rate was not subject to unexpected factors causing such fluctuations.

    Consideration of External Factors

    Despite that the analysis did not factor in key financial news, reports, and market hours, these are vital elements that could potentially affect exchange rates and are worth considering in a more comprehensive analysis. In specific, financial news and reports could radically change investors' expectations, thus influencing exchange rates.

    Please note that financial market analysis can be complex, therefore the results provided should only be used as a fundamental analysis, considering further examinations to achieve a more precise understanding.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    Based on the data provided from 19 February 2024 to 23 February 2024, the HUF exchange rate presents minor fluctuations.

    Beginning the data set with an exchange rate of 0.00373, the rate gradually slightly increased to peak at 0.00378.Following that, it saw decreased to 0.00376 and ended the last day at 0.00376. Therefore, the overall trend in this period can be described as a slight increase initially followed by a small decrease.

    Seasonality Analysis

    There were minor fluctuations in the HUF exchange rate during this period. Although these trends do not exhibit striking hourly or daily level seasonality due to the lack of significant difference for the given period, the data provided is insufficient to conclusively establish a pattern of seasonality.

    Outliers and Unexpected Results

    No significant outliers or unexpected results are observed throughout the provided dataset. An outlier would usually result in an abrupt and significant change in the rate, which is not exhibited from 19 to 23 February 2024. All observed fluctuations in the exchange rate are moderate, with no drastic leaps or falls.

    Given the data available, it would be beneficial to have a longer time-line in order to identify potential outliers, as these could be influenced by external events such as economic crises, market anomalies, or sudden economic policy changes.

    In conclusion, this time-series analysis provides valuable insight into the HUF exchange rate trend from 19 February 2024 to 23 February 2024. The overall trend was a gradual increase then followed by stabilizing and decrease towards the end of the period with no clear seasonality patterns or significant outliers.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Based on the provided data, the exchange rate for the Hungarian Forint (HUF) has remained remarkably stable over the given period. The value we see multiple times is 0.00376. There were very slight fluctuations to 0.00375 but they were rare and did not indicate a trend towards rising or falling rates. Overall, throughout the specified timeframe, the HUF exchange rate has maintained a consistent and stable trend.

    2. Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns

    Due to the short duration of the data provided, it's challenging to identify any plausible seasonality or recurring patterns. The change in time intervals (e.g., from every 5 minutes to every 15 minutes) does not seem to affect the exchange rate. Therefore, no discernible repetitive pattern or incidence of seasonality can be detected from the data provided.

    3. Noting any outliers

    In the given dataset, no significant outliers are found. The majority of exchange rates lie at 0.00376, with only rare and minimal variations to 0.00375. In the context of this dataset, the data points at 0.00375 might be considered as minimal outliers, as they slightly differ from the majority. However, the difference is so marginal that these points cannot be considered significant outliers.