Forint Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis of the Exchange Rate

Based on the given data, the HUF exchange rate appears mostly stable over the period observed. The majority of the rate lies between 0.00372 and 0.00374, with a slight increase from 0.00372 to 0.00374 which may indicate a slight appreciation trend in currency. However, since the data does not cover a long period and there are only tiny fluctuations, we need more data to ascertain this. The rates of change are very small, and such small variations can be due to the influence of multiple factors.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns of the Exchange Rate

With the available data, it is quite challenging to discern any seasonality or recurring patterns because of the relatively small time window and limited fluctuations in the values. Most of the changes are random, which are typical in financial markets due to their volatile nature and the influence of multiple variables. It would require a dataset that covers a longer time span with more significant fluctuations to identify any clear seasonal trend.

Outliers Within the Dataset

In this dataset, no obvious outliers can be spotted; all the exchange rates fall within a minimal range which shows a stable trend in the data. All values vary within 0.00372-0.00374, minutely deviating from the mean. This suggests the dataset is free from any significant outliers that could potentially affect the analysis.

Please note that while the analysis is based on the provided data for this specific period, exchange rates can be influenced by many factors and can show different trends and patterns in other periods or when considering a broader context.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Based on the provided time series data, the HUF exchange rate remains remarkably stable over the period shown. The HUF rate predominantly remains around the 0.00372 mark, with very minor fluctuations on few occasions. Therefore, for this particular dataset, it can be concluded that the exchange rate witnessed an overall stable trend.

Identifying Seasonality

There doesn't seem to be an obvious seasonality in the given data. Since the exchange rate stayed fairly stable throughout the period, we cannot observe any clear recurring pattern based on the day of time or the time of day.

Noting any Outliers

In terms of outliers, very few instances can be observed where the exchange rate deviates from the majority of the data. This is reflected in the minor declines to 0.00371 from the predominant rate of 0.00372. However, these deviations are not significantly large and the rate quickly reverts back to its typical value, indicating these may be due to minor market fluctuations rather than being true outliers.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Understanding trends in exchange rates can be complex, given the myriad factors that can influence these rates. The dataset provided offers time-series data for the HUF exchange rate. It shows a slight increase over time suggesting a gradual appreciation of the currency. The exchange rate started at 0.0037 and by the end of the dataset it had reached 0.00372. While this is a minor increase it does suggest some degree of appreciation over the period in question.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns

Identifying patterns in exchange rates often requires data over longer periods. The dataset provided here spans over a short period, so identifying any seasonal patterns can be challenging. However, the dataset doesn't depict any clear recurring patterns or seasonality.

3. Noting any outliers

Exchange rates, like other financial data, are prone to unexpected fluctuations that can lead to outliers. However, based on the provided data, the changes in exchange rates seemed to stick to a pretty stable line with no major unexpected spikes or dips in the value. While there is subtle fluctuation, these changes are not so significant to be considered outliers.

Note: The analysis provided here is a basic, high-level one and should be used with caution. More sophisticated methods and models are needed for more accurate insight.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The given dataset for the HUF exchange rate shows a generally stable rate for the period shown. The exchange rate seems to oscillate between 0.0037 and 0.00372. There are no significant increases or decreases over this period, and the value stays within a small range. The oscillatory behavior suggests that there might be micro-trends in the data set (likely due to business hours or daily trading patterns), but the overall trend is counterbalanced and results in a stable trend.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

To identify seasonal or cyclical behavior in the time series data, we would need to look at data on a finer granularity. Here, with data only available for a single day, it is challenging to discern any recurring seasonal or hourly patterns. However, the granularity of the data suggests that it was likely collected at a regular interval (every few minutes), indicating the potential for intra-day patterns if more days were included.

Outliers in Exchange Rates

From the given data, there appear to be no significant outliers or unusual variations in the exchange rate. The rate remains relatively constant throughout the dataset, fluctuating mainly between 0.0037 and 0.00372. This close range of variation indicates a lack of irregularities or unexpected changes in the exchange rates.

External Factors Influence on Exchange Rates

The time series data provided for analysis correlates to a relatively short period (24 hours). Within this span, it isn’t feasible to observe long-term effects of external factors such as the opening/closing of different world markets, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial reports. However, it's worth noting that these factors can greatly influence exchange rates in a more comprehensive and extended dataset.

The analysis of this data is based solely on the time-series information provided, ignoring specific events or external factors. For more accurate and nuanced predictions, it's recommended to consider event-based, macroeconomic, and market data in conjunction with time-series analysis.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Without considering external factors and without access to visualization tools, this is what a broad analysis of the dataset reveals.

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The exchange rate from the given dataset starts at 0.00371 and ends at 0.00371. This lack of change suggests stability over the observed period. However, this doesn't mean the rate remained constant; it fluctuated between the minimum value of 0.00368 and the maximum value of 0.00379. Neither an upward nor a downward trend can be discerned from the available figures.

2. Identifying Seasonality

Without more sophisticated mathematical analysis tools or the ability to visualize data, detecting seasonality is challenging. The data doesn't seem to indicate an obvious recurring pattern that would signal day-level or week-level seasonality.

3. Noting Any Outliers

The data shows a relatively narrow range from 0.00368 to 0.00379 without any apparent spikes or drops, suggesting no significant outliers. However, without employing more sophisticated tools to perform an in-depth mathematical analysis, this observation may not be entirely accurate.

Summary

This basic analysis of exchange rates (HUF) over the given period indicates relative stability with mild fluctuations. More sophisticated analysis tools would provide a better understanding of seasonality and potential outliers.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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• Standard Deviation:

Trend

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Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The overall trend appears to be relatively stable, but with some minor fluctuations. The rate starts at 0.00374 and ends at 0.00371, indicating a slight decline. However, it shifts up and down throughout the data points, suggesting the existence of volatility within the overall stability.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Identifying seasonality in the data is a bit challenging due to the fine granularity in time (hourly), but several patterns can be observed. For instance, the data has a tendency to remain stable for several hours before experiencing slight changes. However, without data associated with greater periods (like weekly or monthly), it's hard to determine specific seasonal trends.

Outliers in the data

Considering the slight changes in the exchange rates, it's challenging to distinctly identify any outliers just with naked eye or without performing statistical analysis. But based on available data, there doesn't seem to be huge jumps or falls in exchange rates which could be considered as outliers. However, comprehensive statistical analysis is required to confirm this.

``` This is a basic analysis based on the trend visible in the data. For a more thorough and comprehensive analysis, statistical algorithms to analyze the overall normality of the data, tests for stationary, and detecting outliers could be useful. Also, visual exploratory data analysis (EDA) through charts and graphs can offer insights.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Looking at the data you provided, an initial observation reveals that the HUF exchange rate is generally stable as it fluctuated slightly between 0.0037 to 0.00372 value. There is no significant upward or downward trend from the initial time stamp to the last time stamp recorded - indicating an overall stable trend. It's important to keep in mind, however, that exchange rates are influenced by a multitude of factors and can change rapidly in response to global events.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

From the available data, a clear recurring pattern or seasonality is not immediately evident. The wake of the exchange rate within the time interval provided remains mostly stable with slight variations up and down. Therefore, the data does not seem to exhibit daily seasonality within the recorded time frame. To gain more insight into possible seasonality, it would be beneficial to examine the data on a weekly or monthly basis, or over a longer period of time.

Identification of Outliers

Based on the values provided, there isn't any major fluctuation that stands out as an outlier. The exchange rate only oscillates slightly around a small range (0.0037 - 0.00372), which denotes a stable exchange rate of the currency in the captured snapshot. However, without a matter of information about the wider context, it's not possible to definitively identify any outliers just based on this dataset.

Again, given the nature of financial data and the external factors affecting them, it is highly advisable to analyse the data in a broader context for a more accurate and comprehensive understanding.