Argentine Peso Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Based on the given dataset, it appears that the exchange rate (ARS) remains consistently at 0.00161 throughout the entire timeframe. This suggests a very stable foreign exchange market for this particular currency, with no significant increases or decreases observed in the duration. However, these observations are purely numerical and more advanced statistical methods should be used to confirm this visual trend.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    Considering the specific dataset provided, the exchange rate (ARS) remains the same at all timestamps implying that there isn't any apparent seasonality or recurring pattern in the changes of exchange rates observable. The exchange rate is consistent and does not show any typical patterns associated with time-series data such as daily increases or decreases, or variations correlating to specific times of the day. Again, these conclusions are drawn purely from visual observations, advanced statistical testing would be required for confirmation.

    3. Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

    From the dataset, there are no obvious outliers. The exchange rate remains at 0.00161 for ARS at all times specified, without any major deviations from this value. This suggests the absence of extreme fluctuations or volatility in the exchange rate during this period. Nonetheless, this assessment is superficial and would need to be underpinned by more rigorous statistical analyses.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend

    Overall, the overall trend of the Argentine peso (ARS) exchange rate appears to be stable within the dataset provided. The rate started at 0.00161 at the start of the dataset (February 28, 2024, 00:00:02) and ended at the same rate at the end of the dataset (February 28, 2024, 23:55:02). There were slight fluctuations, but the rate remained steady at 0.00161 for the majority of the period, with intermittent increases to 0.00162.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Due to the very limited variation in the data, no clear seasonality or recurring patterns can be identified. However, the slight increases to 0.00162 occur at seemingly random intervals, with no discernable pattern or relation to a particular time or day. Further data may reveal seasonal changes or recurring patterns, but these are not visible based on the current dataset.

    Noting Outliers

    Given the highly stable exchange rates, tiny variations to 0.00162 can be considered as outliers. However, these shifts, while uncommon compared to the prevailing rate, are not significantly different to be classified as true outliers. The change remains within an increment of 0.00001, which is minimal and does not represent a significant aberration from the observed trend.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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    Analysis of the Provided Dataset

    The provided dataset, capturing the variations in the ARS exchange rate at different time points, offers a snapshot of the currency's performance across these specific intervals. Following is a comprehensive analysis addressing the three outlined goals:

    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of The Exchange Rates

    In this dataset, the ARS exchange rate has been consistent at 0.00161 across the period under review. Therefore, it can be deduced that the exchange rate has remained stable, exhibiting neither an increasing nor decreasing trend.

    2. Identifying Any Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Given the consistent rate of 0.00161 across the dataset's timeframe, it is evident that the dataset demonstrates no discernible seasonality or recurring pattern in the ARS exchange rate changes.

    3. Recognition of Outliers

    The constancy of the dataset's exchange rate at 0.00161 eliminates the presence of any possible outliers. Each data point is uniform, signifying there are no instances where the exchange rate significantly deviates from the trend.

    Note that this analysis is based solely on the provided dataset and does not take into consideration any external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Therefore, the scope of this interpretation is bounded by these limitations.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Data Analysis

    The provided dataset contains a series of timestamps followed by corresponding ARS exchange rates. This time-series dataset spans from January 26, 2024 to February 23, 2024.

    Understanding the Overall Trend

    The ARS exchange rate in the dataset fluctuates between 0.00161 and 0.00164. However, if we observe the overall trend, there appears to be minor fluctuations with no significant increase or decrease in the ARS exchange rate.

    Seasonality

    Upon examining the data, no evident pattern of seasonality is discernible. Given the short duration covered by the dataset (approximately one month), it would be challenging to accurately identify any seasonal patterns without additional data covering an extended period. It can be noted that within the given timeframe, there are minor fluctuations similar at different points in time, but this might not be sufficient to establish a seasonal pattern.

    Outliers

    There seems to be no outliers present in this data. An outlier would be an instance where the value significantly deviates from the rest of the data points. With the ARS exchange rate fluctuating between 0.00161 and 0.00164, all values are quite close to each other, and none deviate significantly from the others to be considered an outlier.

    Limitations and Considerations

    • Exchange rates are influenced by various external factors including market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, and the release of key financial news and reports. However, this analysis does not take such factors into account.
    • This analysis only describes the trend and checks for seasonality and outliers based on the given data. It does not provide any predictive models or forecasts for future rates.
    • Given the short duration of the dataset, it is challenging to accurately assess seasonality or long-term trends within the data.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Overall Trend in Exchange Rates

    As per the data, the exchange rate of ARS remained consistent at 0.00161 for most of the period. However, there was a slight increment observed to 0.00162 from 2024-02-20 14:00:02 to 2024-02-20 20:00:02 and from 2024-02-21 03:00:02 to 2024-02-21 08:00:03, indicating a minor fluctuation in the exchange rate. After these two periods, the rate returned to 0.00161 and continued on the same line till the end of the provided data. Overall, the exchange rates demonstrated a fairly stable trend with minor increases observed at certain intervals.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Given the provided dataset, it is challenging to identify any clear seasonality or recurring patterns. The majority of the rates stayed at 0.00161 with occasional, slight increases to 0.00162. These increases are quite infrequent and don't seem to follow a specific pattern relative to the timestamps. However, deeper analysis might be needed over a longer period of time to conclusively determine any seasonality.

    Outliers

    When considering an outlier in this dataset, it is primarily the temporary increases to 0.00162. While they do represent a departure from the norm (0.00161), they are not a dramatic enough of a shift to be considered as significant outliers. Rather, these instances are merely slight fluctuations, which are expected in any financial data.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Overall Trend Analysis

    Based on the provided dataset, the exchange rate of ARS remains stable throughout the period displayed. The rate consistently stays at 0.00161, with a slight dip to 0.0016 at certain times. Therefore, there is no visible increasing or decreasing trend within the examined time period.

    Seasonality & Recurring Patterns

    There doesn't appear to be a discernible seasonality or reoccurring patterns to the changes in exchange rates based on this dataset. Given that the exchange rate remains mostly stable at 0.00161, with occasional negligible fluctuations to 0.0016, we don't detect any regular or systematic changes in the exchange rate that would suggest a seasonal pattern.

    Outliers

    Concerning outliers, it is worth noting that the exchange rate did occasionally alter to 0.0016. Although, considering the consistency of the data, this small fluctuation might be significant within the context of this dataset. Hence these instances could be regarded as outliers relative to the standard rate of 0.00161. However, these are very marginal differences and would not likely represent significant outliers in a broader financial context.