Nuevo Sol Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The data provided shows changes to the PEN exchange rate over time. In reviewing this data, an overall downward trend of PEN exchange rates is observed within the given timeframe. The exchange rate started from 0.36955 and ended at 0.36604. However, the movement of the rates is not linear, showing several fluctuations during the period.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Seasonality or recurring patterns are not particularly evident from the given dataset. The rates show fluctuations throughout, but these do not appear to follow any defined, repeating pattern that could signify seasonality. More data is required for a complete evaluation of potential seasonality; ideally, these data should cover multiple cycles of whatever seasonal period is expected (e.g., daily, monthly, yearly).

Outliers in Exchange Rates

Generally, the exchange rates fluctuate within a small range. However, there is a noticeable drop around the timestamp 2024-04-25 06:25:02, where the rate drops significantly from 0.36905 to 0.36633. Unless this can be correlated to a specific event or influence, this could be considered an outlier, or a point of significant deviation from the trend observed for the rest of the period.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analysis of PEN Exchange Rate Data

Reading through the provided timestamped exchange rate data, certain trends, patterns, and irregularities become apparent. The comprehensive analysis of your dataset includes evaluating the overall trend, seasonality patterns, and outliers in the data.

1. Overall Trend

The initial observation of the dataset shows that the PEN exchange rate fluctuates across the data timeline. The rate started at 0.37125, dipped to around 0.36873, and finally ended at about 0.36958. This indicates that there's a marginal depreciation of the currency over the timeline. However, within this period, significant fluctuations in rate values have been identified.

2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

On a minute glance at the provided timestamped data, there does not appear to be a clear seasonality or recurring pattern. The data is quite sporadic with no obvious periodic upturns or downturns. However, to make a more objective statement, sophisticated time-series analysis techniques that fall outside the scope of this initial analysis would be necessary.

3. Outliers

Across the dataset, there are a few times where large jumps in the exchange rate occur. For example, it dropped significantly from 0.37187 to 0.36891 between the timestamps '2024-04-24 06:20:02' and '2024-04-24 06:50:02'. These sudden changes are outliers as they represent a significant deviation from the rate's typical incremental changes. It should be checked whether these instances are data errors or actual abrupt changes in the exchange rate.

In conclusion, this preliminary analysis shows that the PEN exchange rate experiences a marginal overall depreciation, doesn't exhibit clear seasonal patterns, and has several significant outliers. More intricate methodologies are required for a more profound and insightful understanding of this time-series financial data.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Overall Trend Analysis

Looking at the provided time series data, we can observe a generally small variability in the exchange rate from a minimum of approximately 0.3695 to a maximum of approximately 0.3724. Despite some small dips and peaks, the trend over the period does not indicate any sharp increases or decreases. It seems to be somewhat stable. However, there seems to have been a significant dip at the timestamp 2024-04-23 06:25:02, which then recovered over time.

2. Seasonality Analysis

The dataset provided does not cover a sufficiently long period to make definitive conclusions about seasonality or recurring patterns. Seasonality typically occurs over a fixed period, for example, a particular increase or decrease every year or every quarter. Considering just a day's worth of data does not offer enough information to identify any seasonal patterns. The periodicity would need to cover multiple cycles of the potential recurring pattern to confirm any seasonality.

3. Outliers Analysis

There are no significant outliers in the given dataset. The exchange rates remain relatively stable, with some small troughs and peaks, as mentioned above. The most noticeable dip in the exchange rate happens at the timestamp 2024-04-23 06:25:02. However, it quickly recovers. Other than this event, no other substantial unexpected movements in the exchange rates occur that can be classified as outliers.

Summary of Last Month

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overview of the Exchange Rates

Upon analysis of your data, one can observe that the exchange rate of the PEN (Peruvian Nuevo Sol) had been generally stable but showing some fluctuations. The rates open the day on 22 April 2024 at around 0.36816 and rise to a daily high of around 0.37281. The lowest rate of the day is seen at around 0.3679. There is no clear trend of a general increase or decrease over the period under consideration. It shows the exchange rates had been mostly oscillating around a particular range.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

There doesn't appear to be any consistent and pronounced seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates data over a single 24-hour period. The overall market for the currency seems to be efficient with exchange rates reflecting news and events quickly. There are some periods of relative stability and others with more oscillation, but there are irregular intervals between such periods, so they don't constitute a seasonal pattern.

Outliers Detected

You will notice some outliers in the exchange rates, where the exchange rates show small but sudden increases or drops. Significant dips and rises can be noticed at times such as around 06:25 (climbing towards 0.37208), 13:15 (rising even up to 0.37055), and 20:05 (spotting an increase to around 0.37184). These sudden movements may be due to specific, unpredictable market events or possibly even a large transaction affecting the exchange rate temporarily.

Summary of Last Week

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

From the dataset provided, it is not clear whether the exchange rates generally increase or decrease over the period displayed. This is because the rate appears to fluctuate from one timestamp to another with no clear upward or downward trend. However, the majority of the series is wavering around a range between 0.366 and 0.372.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Similarly, for the second objective, within this given dataset, there seems to be no clear pattern of seasonality or recurring trends in the changes of exchange rates. However, this would potentially be made clearer with an extended dataset or additional data on the corresponding days of the week for each timestamp.

Spotting the Outliers

In terms of outliers, a few instances stand out where the exchange rate dips below or rises above the main range of 0.366 and 0.372. These instances can be seen on the dates: 2024-03-22,2024-03-25, 2024-03-27, 2024-03-29, 2024-04-01, 2024-04-02, 2024-04-03, 2024-04-10, 2024-04-11, and 2024-04-12. It must be noted that in this context, an 'outlier' is simply an observation which is notably different from the other values in the series and does not necessarily indicate a statistical anomaly or error.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

In examining the data provided, the PEN exchange rate appears to have a slight downward trend over the period. Beginning at 0.3724, the exchange rate depreciates to 0.36743 by the last entry timestamp, which suggests a gentle depreciation of the currency over this period. It's important to keep in mind that such a trend is only indicative of the specific timeframe provided and may change depending on broader economic conditions, policy changes, and other factors not included in the provided data set.

Seasonality / Recurring Patterns

Seasonality or recurring patterns can be harder to spot in smaller time frames and require granular data for certain time slots (annual, quarterly, monthly, weekly, daily). However, upon observation, no clear hourly pattern appears to persist consistently throughout the dataset. Further analysis might be needed with a larger dataset to accurately determine the presence of any recurring patterns.

Identification of Outliers

A careful pass through the data reveals some instances where there are abrupt fluctuations versus the general trend. For example, on 2024-04-16 at 17:00:03, the rate drops to 0.36773 from the previous rate of 0.37091, an unusual decrease compared to the rest of the dataset. Similarly, on 2024-04-19 at 07:00:03, the rate jumps to 0.36891 from the previous rate of 0.36606. These could potentially be outliers. However, without knowledge of the cause, it's difficult to definitively label these as exceptions or due to external influences.

It's worth noting that in financial exchange markets, 'outliers' can often be a regular occurrence and part of the 'random walk' nature of exchange rate movements, driven by countless micro and macro factors. Outliers could also be driven by 'high impact' data events, such as key announcements from central banks or key economic data releases.

Based on the instructions, further analysis such as distribution and variance checks, detailed outlier analysis, trend cycle checks, etc. was not performed. Please note that this analysis is basic and takes into account only a rudimentary assessment based on face value data. For a deep-dive analysis, other factors and more detailed statistical analysis would need to be considered.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

Looking at the dataset, the overall trend of the exchange rates of the PEN appears to be somewhat stable with minor fluctuations. The rate starts at 0.36628 and ends at 0.36766. Though there are some fluctuations in between, the final change is relatively small, indicating a mostly stable trend.

Seasonality and Recurrence

As for any seasonality or recurring patterns, it is challenging to make such conclusions merely based on the dataset as it only spans a single day. Normally, seasonality or recurring patterns require a more extended period of observation like months or more years. However, there is some volatility within the day with a slight increase in the exchange rates in the middle of the dataset which could potentially be linked to market opening hours in various regions, but this could also be coincidental.

Identifying Outliers

Regarding outliers, the most notable instance where the exchange rate is significantly different from the rest of the observations is around 06:25:02 timestamp where the exchange rate jumps to 0.36901 from 0.36603. This is the highest point in the dataset. However, without additional context or data, it's hard to determine why this outlier exists.

Conclusion

Overall, the PEN exchange rate on the given timestamp shows minor intraday fluctuations but maintains a generally stable trend. While it's difficult to pinpoint clear patterns or seasonality, there is some notable volatility, and a significant outlier is observed. Further analysis with additional data could yield more insights and pinpoint the causes for these changes.