Nuevo Sol Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend

    Across the given dataset, the exchange rates display volatility within a range from approximately 0.35653 to 0.35918. We see that the exchange rate initiated at 0.35873 and concluded at 0.357, illustrating a slight trend of depreciation in the currency over the period. It is however important to note that the trend isn't steep and has numerous ups and downs over the period, showcasing a high level of volatility in the exchange rates. Consequently, it can't be explicitly said that whether the exchange rates generally increase, decrease, or remain stable, but it appears marginally inclined towards depreciation.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    From a glance at the given dataset, it's challenging to decipher any clear seasonality or regular patterns in the changes of exchange rates. As the data provided is intraday, this isn't unreasonable - exchange rates are impacted by multitudes of factors, and discerning a daily pattern might need a more extensive or longer-period dataset. That said, there are recurring periods of minor rises and falls which could be due to the opening and closing of different global markets, but it isn't specific in this data set.

    Noting Any Outliers

    Most of the values in the dataset are in the range of 0.35 - 0.36. Consequently, all values within this range could be considered normal, and values outside of this range could potentially be considered outliers. However, within the given dataset, all the observations lie within this range, suggesting no visible outliers. It should be noted, that without a more extensive dataset or context, it's challenging to definitively say what constitutes an outlier in this case.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall trend of the exchange rates

    The overall trend for the exchange rate fluctuates but is slightly upward within the given timestamp. The lowest figure we see is at the beginning of the detailed timestamp, at 0.3558 and it slightly increases to 0.3586 by the end. It indicates that the currency represented by the data showed a small appreciation trend during this time span. However, the exchange rate does oscillate around the mean, suggesting it doesn't have a very strong upward or downward direction throughout the period.

    Identification of seasonality or recurring patterns

    Due to the high-frequency nature of the data provided, it would be hard to surface any daily seasonality patterns without further data on a more extended period. However, within the dataset provided, there appear to be slight increases followed by slight declines in value, representing some level of volatility. But an intraday seasonality pattern is hard to discern in the given data.

    Outliers in the data

    While most of the readings are stable, there are certain timestamps where a rather drastic change is noticed. For instance, around the timestamp '2024-02-28 06:20:02,' we see a sudden jump from 0.35655 to 0.35852. This creates a lot more volatility in the series and can be considered an outlier. Also, there seems to be substantial movement upwards after '2024-02-28 12:25:02' (from 0.35827 to 0.35891) and a significant decrease after '2024-02-28 20:05:02' (from 0.35921 to 0.35883).

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Looking at the data and considering only the dates and corresponding exchange rates, it is clear that the exchange rate of the mentioned currency has been relatively stable throughout the given period. There are minute changes happening from time to time, which is expected in any foreign exchange market. However, a specific upward or downward trend cannot be decisively determined, although a small inclination towards a decrease in the exchange rate can be noted.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    No significant, observable patterns or seasonality components can be directly identified from the data given. The fluctuations are minor and within a small range, suggesting that there are no recurring times or dates when the exchange rates increase or decrease notably. A more quantitative analysis might be required using more advanced time series methods to notice any latent recurring patterns.

    3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

    There does not appear to be any significant outliers present in the given data. Most of the exchange rate values are within a close range to each other, without any significantly larger or smaller values. While it's normal to experience deviations in forex data, the provided series shows relatively stable prices with no substantial or sudden deviations from the norm.

    Note:

    While this analysis provides an overview of the data trend and potential anomalies, it's important to bear in mind that it's a simplified analysis. A more detailed analysis might involve more advanced statistical methods and models, considering additional historical data and potentially other influencing factors.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The analysis of the provided data reveals that there is no obvious upward or downward trend in the exchange rates over the time period. Rather, the exchange rates were observed to fluctuate within a narrow range. It commenced at 0.3564 on the 2024-01-26, reaching its peak on two occasions at 0.35768 and 0.35761 on 2024-01-26 but eventually dropped to a low of 0.34702 on 2024-02-12. However, it then experienced a slight upward movement, reaching 0.35731 on 2024-02-21 before retracting slightly to close at 0.35421 on 2024-02-23. Thus, it can be said that the overall trend is relatively stable although there are slight fluctuations.

    2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in the Exchange Rates

    Given the time period of observed data, it's challenging to precisely identify any seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rate. The data suggests oscillations in the exchange rate that do not seem to follow a specific pattern in recurring intervals. However, to make concrete conclusions, a more lengthy and comprehensive dataset would be needed.

    3. Outliers in the Exchange Rates

    The presence of outliers in this dataset is negligible. Most values fluctuate around an approximate range of 0.347 to 0.357, representing a pretty confined interval. As a result, any extreme values could be considered statistical anomalies due to the tight-knit nature of the data. Nonetheless, with the given dataset, there were no observed exchange rates deviating significantly from the outlined trends.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Trend Analysis

    From the data provided, it's evident that the exchange rate has generally been increasing over the time period sampled. This is indicated by the initial value of the PEN exchange rate on 2024-02-19 as 0.35017 and the final recorded value on 2024-02-23 as 0.35421. However, the rate of increase has been fluctuating with instances of decline interspersed with periods of growth.

    2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    While the data doesn't cover a complete year to allow for analysis of annual seasonality, there seems to be some intra-day volatility. Judging by the data provided, there are periods of increase during the day, followed by periods of decrease. This could indicate a possible daily recurring pattern where the exchange rate increases during certain hours of the day and decreases during others. However, the lack of more-specific hourly data makes it difficult to pinpoint these intervals with certainty without additional data.

    3. Outliers

    Most noticably, the data shows two significant jumps in the exchange rate: one on 2024-02-19 at 07:00:02, where the rate increased from 0.35018 to 0.35295 and one on 2024-02-20 at 09:00:04, where the rate increased from 0.35276 to 0.35564. Similarly, there are also periods of faster decline, such as on 2024-02-21 after 07:00:03 where the rate decreased from 0.35745 to 0.35579 and on 2024-02-22 where the rate decreased rapidly from 0.35633 to 0.35468. These instances differ significantly from the overall observed trend and can be labeled as outliers.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    Over the course of this time period, the exchange rate of PEN was observed to be relatively stable, with minor fluctuations. The strength of the currency does not seem to dramatically increase or decrease over time, staying within a narrow range of approximately 0.35375 to 0.35617. While there is no steep upward or downward trend, there is a mild increase in the value of PEN near the end of the dataset, around 2024-02-23 09:05:02, where it peaks at 0.35617. Therefore, overall, we can say that the exchange rate is relatively stable with a slight increase at the end.

    Identifying Seasonality

    Regarding seasonality or recurring patterns, due to the short timeline covered by this dataset (less than two 24 hour cycles), it is difficult to infer any strong seasonal patterns. There may potentially be a subtle intra-day cycle, with lower values observed around 02:05:02 and higher values at around 06:20:02 and 09:15:03, but additional data would be needed to confirm these patterns.

    Noting Outliers

    An analysis of the data set also revealed a significant outlier in the exchange rate. On 2024-02-23 06:20:02, the exchange rate spikes up to 0.35557 from 0.35395 without a clear preceding upward trend. This indicates an unusual event that might be worth investigating further, even though external factors are not in the scope of this analysis. The rate then decreases but starts climbing again till 09:20:03, reaching 0.35609. This might have been another short-term event affecting the exchange rates.

    Overall, the data indicates relative stability in the exchange rate with minor fluctuations, possible evidence of intra-day cycles would require further data to confirm, and the presence of a couple of potential outlier events that might be worthy of further investigation if external factors were to be considered.