Mexican Peso Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

By examining the dataset, it can be observed that the MXN exchange rate experienced a slight overall increase throughout the day on April 25, 2024. The rate starts at 0.08014 and finishing the day slightly increased at around 0.07938, but it was fluctuating during the day and does not directly go up or down. Please note that this is a general trend for this specific day, and daily trends might have high volatility, not necessarily reflecting the long-term trends.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

From the given data set, it's a bit difficult to definitively identify any seasonal or recurring patterns over this 24-hour period. However, slight tendencies can be noticed where the rate mostly decreases slightly in the first half an hour of a given hour and then slightly increases in the last half an hour. However, this pattern is not strictly followed and there are time slots where this tendency is violated. We should take this observation with a pinch of salt, as we are observing only one day's data, and not necessarily indicative of recurring patterns or seasonal changes.

Identifying Outliers

Probably, the most significant outlier in this dataset was the steep decrease around 07:30:04, when the exchange rate has a sudden jump from 0.08024 to 0.07997, just to recover back to around the previous level at 08:10:02 with 0.07952. This might have been the result of a high volume transaction or a drastic short term change in demand and supply. There were few other smaller fluctuations throughout the day, but none of them was as significant as this one.

Please be aware that the outlier identified might not be an 'outlier' in a statistical sense without further statistical analysis. The highlighted points are simply instances of large jumps which are different from the general pattern of that period.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Based on the timestamps and corresponding exchange rate data provided, the following observations have been made:

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Looking at the data, it appears that the exchange rate generally fluctuates between 0.08013-0.08092 throughout this period. However, the rate doesn't showcase a sharp increase or decrease in trend; instead, it oscillates seemingly randomly within this range. Overall, the exchange rate seems more or less stable, albeit with minor ups and downs on a granular level (minute-by-minute).

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

At a glance, the data doesn't indicate any obvious seasonality or recurring patterns. The fluctuations seem more instantaneous and random, reflecting the highly dynamic nature of forex markets that are influenced by myriads of macroeconomic factors at any given moment. However, without specific time-related features like day of the week or hour of the day, it is challenging to be definitive on seasonality based solely on this dataset.

3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

There doesn't appear to be any significant outliers in this data. Most exchange rates are clustering within the mentioned range of 0.08013-0.08092. Any instance where the exchange rate slightly deviates from this range is not substantial to be considered an outlier. Relative stability of the exchange rate also suggests that the given data exhibits less volatility during this period.

Note: These observations are solely based on the data provided and do not account for external influences such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of significant financial news and reports.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the overall trend of exchange rates

The overall trend of the exchange rates over the period suggests a gradual increase. The rate begins at 0.07997 and ends at 0.08066. But this increase is not linear, with several peaks and troughs suggesting rates are fluctuating over time. However, there is a general upward trend.

Identifying the seasonality in exchange rates

The data appears to exhibit some cyclical patterns, suggesting trend seasonality. While it is difficult to pinpoint any specific seasonal patterns without more context or a longer time series, there are regular fluctuations in the rates that hint at underlying cycles.

Noting any outliers in the data

Despite the hourly fluctuations, the dataset does not appear to have any significant outliers. The exchange rates generally stay within a relatively tight range, with not many instances where the rate deviates significantly from the trend.

Note: The above statements are based on the simple observation of the given data and assuming a simple trend. A more comprehensive analysis would require more advanced statistical methods and tools. For instance, considering a longer time series data or employing techniques like AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, which are commonly used in time-series forecasting, could provide deeper insights. While we observed a broad trend, fluctuations, and lack of severe outliers, detailed quantitative measures were not part of this discussion. Outputting the detailed numeric and statistical results for trend, seasonality, and outliers would require a deeper, more mathematical analysis.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding Overall Trend:

Upon observation of the data, it is noticeable that the trend of the exchange rate fluctuates slightly. The rate starts at 0.08065 and ends at 0.08011. Though there are minor fluctuations within that time frame, overall, the exchange rate has decreased slightly from the start to the end of the time period.

Identifying Seasonality:

Seasonality, or repeated fluctuations in the data that correspond to certain time periods, may be present in the dataset. However, given the concise nature of the data, a clear recurring pattern over hours or days is not identifiable. If there is seasonality, it would need a more extended period of data to determine this pattern.

Outliers Analysis:

There are no considerable spikes or drops in the exchange rates observed from the provided dataset. Fluctuations remain within a narrow and expected range. Therefore, no significant outliers can be identified; however, one should always monitor financial data constantly to detect any future anomalies.

Please note that this analysis is a primary level examination performed only on the data provided and does not consider the external effects such as geopolitical changes, economic condition, specific financial events or any other relevant circumstances which can impact the financial market.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Based on the time-series data provided, the MXN exchange rate seems to show a slight upward trend over the entire period observed. We begin with an exchange rate of 0.08084 on 2024-03-22 and end with an exchange rate of 0.07992 on 2024-04-19. However, the increase isn't uniform, and there are significant fluctuations within this period. It's important to note that these observations are put forward under the assumption that the provided data represent the entire data set and not a specific subset.

2. Identifying Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

At a glance, the data doesn't demonstrate clear seasonality or recurring patterns. However, a more detailed analysis, such as applying a Fourier transform or Autocorrelation function, would be needed to confirm this as these tools can help identify underlying cyclical patterns in the data. It's important to note that such patterns might not be immediately visible, especially in financial times series data, and require more sophisticated methods for their detection.

3. Outliers in The Exchange Rates

While it's challenging to confidently identify outliers without the explicit data visualization or without performing a statistical test such as Grubbs's test, the data point on 2024-04-18 with a much lower than usual exchange rate of 0.07866 may be considered an outlier. This is because this rate is considerably lower than the rates observed immediately before or after this timestamp. However, this would need to be confirmed with a statistical outlier detection method.

Remember, outliers could be due to several reasons in financial data including significant financial events in the market or perhaps even due to some data entry or gathering error. Therefore, further investigation is often required to understand the reasons behind each outlier.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Sure, let's begin the analysis:

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The overall trend of the exchange rates in the provided dataset appears to gradually decrease. The rate starts at 0.08294 and ends at 0.08009, meaning that there is a downward trend through this set of data points. While there are occasional increases, the long-term trend is a decrease in the rate of exchange.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

There does not appear to be any clear seasonal pattern or periodic trend in the exchange rates in the provided dataset. The fluctuations in the rates seem to show some intraday variability. However, without more data, it's difficult to confirm whether these are due to diurnal changes or just random fluctuations.

Notable Outliers

• The most significant outlier observed in this series is the data point of 0.07866 on 2024-04-18 at 22:00:02. This rate is significantly lower than the rates before and after this time point.
• A similar brief dip occurs on 2024-04-16 at 10:00:02 to 0.08096, but the exchange rate quickly reverts back to its normal range.

Please note that while these outliers do not significantly alter the overall downward trend, they do raise questions about stability during these periods. It could be worthwhile to investigate these time points more closely for contributing factors.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

From the available time-series data, we can identify the overall trend in the exchange rate. The values seem to show a slight upward trend. The trend starts at 0.07917 at the beginning of the dataset, increasing to 0.08031 by the end of the sequence. Therefore, it is safe to say that the exchange rate gradually increased over the given time period. However, the rate of increase is relatively slow.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

From a close review of the data, it is challenging to assertively state the presence of seasonality because the data only spans a short period, and recognising seasonality usually requires longer-term data. Nevertheless, some repeated fluctuations can be observed in the data, with the exchange rate presenting cyclical rises and drops within the day. Therefore, while distinct seasonal patterns cannot be securely recognised, there seems to be some level of intraday volatility.

Outlier Detection

In terms of outliers, there is no significant deviation observed within this dataset. All the exchange rates stay within a relatively narrow range from the lowest value of 0.07904 to the highest value of 0.08037 throughout the period. This implies that the data is relatively stable and predictable, with no extreme values that could suggest some unusual circumstances or anomalies.