Mexican Peso Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    1. Overall Trend Analysis

    The overall trend of exchange rates in this dataset remains relatively stable. The variation in the value of the data points revolves around the 0.0794 to 0.0796 range. There is slight positive upward movement observed which starts at around 0.07947 and ends at 0.07958. However, this rise is not very significant and could be attributed to normal fluctuations in the exchange rate. Therefore, over the period provided, the rates generally remain stable if very minor fluctuations are disregarded.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Regarding seasonality or recurring patterns, this dataset doesn't present clear evidence of any such patterns. The provided snap in time of the dataset is not sufficient to identify any daily, weekly or monthly recurring patterns. If longer time series data was available, daylight hour trading and different timezone effects might be analyzed to identify any possible patterns. However, based on the provided dataset, no strong seasonal assumptions can be made.

    3. Outliers Analysis

    Generally, the MXN Exchange Rate data is consistent with no significant outliers. This suggests that the exchange rate didn’t undergo erratic behavior or unusual changes for the duration covered by the dataset. This can indicate that certain conditions in the financial markets remained mostly stable during this time.

    Please remember that the insights drawn from this analysis could vary if the analysis was expanded to consider factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. However, based on the instructions provided, those factors weren't taken into account for this analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    The data provided lists timestamps and corresponding MXN exchange rates. This data is time-series and is a sequence of numerical data points taken at successive equally spaced points in time. The key time-series components include the trend, seasonality, and noise.

    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    The overall trend of the exchange rates is examined by addressing whether the rates generally increase, decrease, or remain stable over the period shown.

    • The overall trend showed that the exchange rate is slightly increasing over time. This indicates that over the course of the day on February 28, 2024, the exchange rate gradually strengthened.
    • The lowest value appeared at the beginning of the series at 0.07931. The value consistently increases near the end of the series, achieving a maximum of 0.07955 and then slightly decreasing to 0.07946 near the end of the day.

    2. Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    Searching for recurring patterns in the exchange rates over different time periods can help to identify if there is a seasonality pattern present.

    • The data doesn't appear to show any obvious recurring patterns when observed at five-minute intervals, indicating that there is potentially no intraday seasonality for this single day of data.
    • This lack of observable seasonality could be due to the overwhelmingly larger impact of other factors on the exchange rate. It may also stem from the relatively limited amount of data, as a single day may not be representative of the broader pattern.

    3. Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the expected trend or seasonality

    By monitoring and analyzing the provided data, anomalies or outliers that distort the trend or seasonality can be identified.

    • No significant outliers are observed in the provided data. The values of the exchange rate fluctuate within a narrow range, compared to the overall scale of the values.
    • The data does show some minor fluctuations, but these are to be expected in financial time series and do not necessarily represent outliers, especially given the high-frequency nature of the data (every 5 minutes).

    It's also worth noting that this analysis doesn't consider external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. These factors could have a significant impact on the exchange rate.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Analysis of the MXN Exchange Rate Dataset

    Looking at the dataset, the time frame of the data spans one complete day, starting from midnight of February 26, 2024 and ending at the same time the next day. It can be noted that the sampling rate of the data is approximately every 5 minutes, except for a few instances where the gap is slightly bigger. The value of the exchange rate ranges around 0.07889 to 0.07911.

    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    Upon examining the data, there isn't a clear, definitive overall trend for this specific day. The exchange rate started the day at 0.07889, and ended it at 0.07902. This suggests a slight increase in the MXN exchange rate, but such a conclusion could be inaccurate if we take into account the intra-day variations. The values for the exchange rate displayed a wave-like pattern, with gradual increases and decreases throughout the course of the day.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    An accurate conclusion regarding seasonality or recurring patterns would require a larger dataset that includes data spanning across multiple weeks, months, or even years. However, based on the given one-day data, it's challenging to identify any distinct recurring patterns or seasonality. The provided data does show a certain degree of intra-day fluctuation, but whether this pattern repeats on a daily basis or it was the case for this specific day only, we cannot conclude with the current data set. More data would be needed to identify weekly and/or monthly patterns if they exists.

    Outliers in the Data

    There do not appear to be any significant outliers in this dataset based on the range of exchange rates provided, which is between 0.07889 and 0.07911. All the provided rates fall within this spectrum which suggests that there were no instances of extreme spikes or drops in the rates during the course of this specific day. This implies that the exchange rate remained fairly stable throughout the day, and any changes were incremental and relatively mild.

    In conclusion, while certain observations can be made from this dataset, a more extended dataset is required to yield more accurate and comprehensive insights into overall trends, potential recurring patterns and seasonality, and to identify any significant outliers. Nonetheless, this analysis offers a foundational understanding of the intra-day movements of the MXN exchange rate for February 26, 2024.

Summary of Last Week

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  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The transactional analysis revealed that the exchange rate has undergone both an increase and decrease during the period under observation. The analysis indicates a certain level of volatility in the rates, not remaining entirely stable. The highest exchange rate observed was 0.07936, while the lowest was 0.07778. However, over this period, the rates have generally hovered in the range of 0.078 to 0.079.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Though this dataset does not strictly adhere to a conventional seasonality such as quarterly or annual trends, certain cyclical patterns are apparent in the dataset. Exchange rates seem to exhibit a pattern of rise and fall within a specific range. Periods of continuous increase or decrease are often followed by a reversal. However, these fluctuations deviate within a minimal range indicating a sort of cyclicality, even as there isn't any particular day or hour that consistently results in high or low rates.

    Outliers and Unexpected Changes

    Upon analysis, no significant outliers have been found within this dataset. Most fluctuations fall within the typical range for this dataset, and no individual instances demonstrate an exchange rate significantly higher or lower than the general trend. The exchange rates appear to follow a regular pattern without any notable or dramatic spikes or drops. Hence, the data represents a steady series of exchange rate values over the time period observed.

    Given the constraints on external factor consideration, it should be noted that this analysis is primarily derived from the patterns within the data itself. Further investigation incorporating factors such as market hours, financial reporting periods, public holidays, or significant geopolitical events would potentially provide a more nuanced understanding of the observed exchange rate behavior.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates:

    Upon analyzing the data, it's observed that the exchange rate has seen both an increase and decrease during the period. It begins with an initial decrease from a rate of 0.07908 to 0.07901 but recovers back to 0.07905 by 2024-02-19 07:00:02. The rate then continues to increase until 2024-02-20 02:00:03, reaching a peak of 0.0793. The rate decreases thereafter, and again increases, hitting a next peak rate of 0.07947 at 2024-02-20 09:00:04. Thereafter, there is a general decreasing trend till the end of the dataset. Hence, we can say there is no stable trend noted in the given period; instead, it shows a fluctuating trend of increasing and decreasing rates.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns:

    Given the short duration of the data (approximately four days), it's difficult to confirm if there is any seasonality or recurring patterns within this dataset. To establish seasonality, data over a longer period would need to be analyzed.

    Noting Any Outliers:

    Exchange rate values in your dataset seem to largely follow a continuous pattern without any significant jumps or drops that would suggest the presence of outliers. The maximum change between two subsequent data points (based on the absolute value of the differences) in the dataset is 0.00027, which can be seen between timestamps 2024-02-20 09:00:04 and 2024-02-20 10:00:02. Though it is the maximum change, considering the fluctuating trend of rates, it doesn't seem significant enough to be termed as an outlier here.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Overall Trend Analysis

    Based on the dataset, the trend of MXN exchange rates seems relatively stable across the timeframe provided. The values remain presently around 0.07880, for the most part. There is a small fluctuation but no significant increasing or decreasing trend is discernible.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    It is challenging to identify seasonality or recurring patterns in short-time intervals as the provided dataset. Currency exchange rates are influenced by many factors and quite volatile, so it may take longer periods to distinctly observe the seasonality. However, the dataset doesn't show clear recurrent patterns.

    Outliers Identification

    There are no significant jumps or plumments, thus no clear outliers can be identified. The exchange rates observed throughout the period fluctuate around a very close range (approx. 0.07869 - 0.07893) making all the data points look consistent with the overall observed behavior.

    In summary, the MXN exchange rates show a stable trend with insignificant fluctuations between 0.07869 and 0.07893 during the observed timeframe. No clear outliers or specific seasonal patterns have been detected in the data.