Cordoba Oro Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    In the given dataset, the overall trend of the exchange rates from the beginning to the end seems to exhibit a slight increase. The rate begins at 0.03693 at the start of the day and ends at 0.03682 towards the day's end. However, it's worthy to note a slight spike where the rate goes up to 0.03697 in the early hours of the day, specifically around 04:20 to 05:05. It goes through another smaller peak of 0.03696 around halfway through the day (circa 03:15 to 06:20 and 11:50 to 12:15). After these spikes, the rate decreases and maintains a fairly stable plateau for the remainder of the day.

    Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    Your dataset covers an interval of one day, and thus patterns would not yield seasonality trends. Seasonality refers to periodic fluctuations that occur regularly based on a season or specific time of the year, which would require a considerably larger timeframe to assess. However, with respect to recurring patterns, the data appears to have a fairly cyclical rhythm with several smaller crests and troughs throughout the day. For instance, the rates seem to rise to a certain point mid-day before decreasing and then increasing again, which is a pattern tending to repeat over the recorded timeframe.

    Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

    In this particular dataset, an outlier that can be considered is the dip in value appearing around 20:05 where the rate drop to 0.03681 mark, which is a sizable transition compared to the rest of the data. It remained steady at this point for a certain period before it started to increase again. Besides this instance, there don't appear to be any significant outliers or notable anomalies in the given timespan. It's important to note that this is assuming no external factors are affecting these rates, which in a real-world scenario would likely not be the case.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    The overall trend of the NIO exchange rate in the dataset suggests a mild upward movement. The exchange rates start at 0.03675 at the beginning of the period and ends at 0.03692 towards the end. Despite some minor fluctuations in between the start and end times, the general direction is an increase. However, it's worth noting that this upward trend is relatively weak, indicating perhaps a period of relative stability in the NIO exchange rate during these timestamps.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    The provided time series data spans across one single day at 5-minute intervals. For such short time frame, identifying seasonality is usually not possible as seasonal trends typically manifest over longer time frames (e.g., quarterly, yearly). Similarly, any distinct recurring patterns are not apparent in the provided dataset; although minor fluctuations are present, they don't seem to form a consistent or repeatable pattern.

    Identification of Outliers

    From the provided data, there are no significant outliers. The exchange rate experienced trivial fluctuations, but none of these instances differ significantly from the overall trend to be classified as an outlier. Outliers are typically drastic and unexpected shifts in data, none of which seem to be present within this timeframe.

    One important future consideration is that while this analysis doesn't identify any outliers, real-world exchange rates can be affected by numerous complex factors. These can include geopolitical events, fundamental factors like inflation and interest rates, and market sentiment, among others. Although not in scope for this analysis, monitoring such factors can be crucial in understanding future variations in the NIO exchange rate beyond what is explained by past trends.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Based on the provided exchange rate data, the overall trend for NIO during the date of February 26, 2024 appears to be relatively stable. The rates fluctuate within a very tight band of 0.03667 to 0.03677. This suggests that there was no sharp increase or decrease over the period shown, and rather the rates were somewhat steady on this date. The overall trend appears to be a very slight upward movement, but this increase is minuscule.

    Identifying Seasonality in the exchange rates

    Given the limited scope of data which is a single day, it's challenging to identify any seasonality or recurring patterns as such patterns generally become evident over longer periods. However, the data does point towards some level of periodic fluctuation in the rates during this day, but it is not strong enough to definitively point towards a daily pattern. In general, the rates seem to oscillate between a higher and lower limit multiple times without showing a clear pattern.

    Outliers in the Exchange Rates

    Since the NIO exchange rate primarily fluctuates within a very narrow range, it's reasonable to infer there are no significant outliers within this data set. There's no point where there is a significantly higher or lower rate compared to the overall trend. This implies the market conditions at the stage were relatively steady with no drastic news or events influencing the NIO exchange rate on this timestamp. Please note, to statistically determine outliers, more sophisticated techniques would need to be employed.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Overall Trend Analysis

    After reviewing the entire dataset, it appears that the NIO exchange rates have experienced minor fluctuations throughout the time period presented. The variability in the data doesn't appear to show a clear upward or downward trend; instead, the rate seems to remain relatively stable with some minor peaks and troughs.

    2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    With the data provided, it's difficult to identify any clear seasonality or recurring patterns due to the high level of minute-to-minute fluctuations, as well as the data covering a relatively short time span – just over a month. Traditionally, for detecting seasonality, we would need data for at least a few years. However, if this high-frequency fluctuation is a consistent occurrence, this could hint at a day trading effect where exchange rates fluctuate more significantly during trading hours.

    3. Outliers Analysis

    Outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the rest of the trend, are not readily apparent in this dataset. The fluctuations in exchange rates over the dataset appear to be consistent, with no significant spikes or drops indicating substantial unexpected changes. Therefore, it can be stated with reasonable confidence that there are no outliers in this data within the context of the defined trend and range.

    In conclusion, it seems that the exchange rate remains relatively stable, with small-scale fluctuations occurring throughout. However, a more extended dataset across multiple years could possibly reveal more detail about potential long-term trends and seasonal patterns. Regardless, for a one-month window as provided in the dataset, the fluctuations and stability of the exchange rate seem to be consistent.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rate

    Looking at the provided dataset, it can be observed that the NIO exchange rate has been fluctuating within a small range. The lowest rate in the provided data set is 0.03652, while the highest is 0.03681, showing a small range of variance. Most of the data shows a consistent and stable trend hovering around the 0.0366 - 0.0367 region.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in the Exchange Rates

    As the dataset spans a short period of approximately 4 days, it is difficult to conclusively identify long-term seasonality or recurring patterns within this dataset. Short term patterns, such as daily variations, could be noted if data spans over more days. However, it can be noted that there are slight dips and peaks throughout each day, suggesting there may be short-term intraday fluctuations, though they are rather small and don't tend to go beyond the identified range.

    Outliers and Significant Instances

    In this dataset, there doesn't appear to be any significant outliers - data points that differ greatly from the overall trend or range of the data. All rates fall within the range of 0.03652 - 0.03681, indicating steady rates without instances of sharp increases or decreases. The stable range suggested that there is a steady demand and supply during this period.

    Additional Observations

    • There is a noticeable decline in volatility during certain hours (for example, between the timestamps "2024-02-22 21:00:02" and "2024-02-23 03:00:03"), suggesting periods of lower trading activity.
    • The highest value presented in the dataset, 0.03681, occurred at "2024-02-21 03:00:02," but soon after, the rates consolidated back to the average range, indicating that such peak values may not sustain for long periods.

    In conclusion, it is important to consider that this analysis is based on just a few days' worth of data. For a deeper understanding of trends, patterns, and potential influences on the exchange rates, a larger dataset spanning over weeks, months, or even years would provide a much clearer picture.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Overall Trend Analysis

    Upon examining the data provided, it appears that the exchange rate has shown a minor increase over the period. The NIO exchange rate begins at around 0.03653 and eventually reaches 0.03668, indicating a small upward trend. However, the changes are minor and the rates hover around the same range for the duration of the dataset. This suggests a relatively stable exchange rate with minor fluctuations.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Regarding seasonality, due to the short duration of the time series data provided, which only spans around a single day, it would be challenging to identify any significant seasonal trends. Longer-term data would be needed to analyze seasonal patterns over weeks, months, or even years. However, the oscillating nature of the data suggests some smaller cyclic patterns during the day, indicating a potential intraday seasonality.

    Outlier Analysis

    No significant outliers were found within the dataset based on the exchange rate values provided. The majority of the data lies between 0.0365 and 0.0367, and there aren't any instances where the rate differs significantly from this range. Hence, all rate changes could be considered relatively within bounds and not extreme.

    Remember, these conclusions are derived purely from the provided time-series data and do not take into account additional factors such as market conditions, political events, or economic news that might potentially impact the exchange rates.