Pula Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    General Trend Analysis

    Based on the given data, there does not appear to be a consistent overall trend in the BWP exchange rates over the period shown. The values don't seem to be steadily increasing or decreasing and instead show a lot of small fluctuations. The BWP exchange rate began at 0.09848 at the start of the day and ended at 0.09826 by the end of the day, indicating a tiny decrease overall. However, throughout the day, the rates displayed many minute rises and falls rather than a consistent downward trend. Hence, the exchange rate appears to be relatively stable with minute fluctuations.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, it's challenging to draw a specific conclusion from one day's data. Seasonality patterns would be better assessed over a longer period to account for weekly, monthly, or even yearly patterns. However, based on this single day of data, no clear recurring pattern or cyclical behaviour is evident in the BWP exchange rates.

    Outliers Analysis

    Regarding outliers, the exchange rates stay predominantly within a very tight range of values, between approximately 0.09814 and 0.09860. This narrow range suggests that there are no significant outliers within this one day of data, as there are no values that deviate drastically from this range.

    It should be noted that this form of analysis does not consider outside factors, such as market opening/closing times, the impact of weekends or holidays, or the release of key financial news or reports. These factors could potentially have a significant effect on exchange rates. However, they are not taken into account in this specific analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Upon analyzing the given dataset, it is observed that the exchange rates for BWP generally experience minimal fluctuations. The rates start at 0.09833 at the beginning of the given timestamp and conclude at 0.09846. This suggests a slight increasing trend on overall, though the ups and downs present are minor and the range of exchange rates largely remains stable.

    Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns

    With respect to patterns in the given timestamp, there does seem to be some level of volatility apparent within smaller periods. For instance, smaller cycles of peaks (increases) and troughs(decreases) can be seen occurring within each day, which could indicate some intra-day trading patterns. Days often begin with lower rates, see a rise around midday, and then drop again towards the day's end. However, this pattern is not universally applicable to the entire dataset, suggesting that there is not a strong seasonality present.

    Noting outliers or instances where the exchange rate significantly differs

    In looking for outliers in this dataset, it is important to note that the range of values is relatively small. There are no extreme spikes or drops in the exchange rates that immediately stand out. Most of the rates hover around the 0.098 average mark. However, there are a few times when the rate slightly deviates from this, such as the rate of 0.09863 and 0.0985, these could be considered minor outliers within the context of this data, although they do not significantly disrupt the overall trend or pattern.

    The analysis has been carried out without considering the external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports as per the instructions.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis of the overall trend of BWP exchange rates

    The given dataset provides a granular view of how BWP exchange rates have changed over a specific period. By going through each timestamp, we can see that the exchange rate has been relatively stable. There were small fluctuations in the rates, but there are no significant increases or decreases that would indicate an overall upward or downward trend. This suggests that the exchange rates are relatively stable over the time period covered in this dataset.

    Seasonality or recurring patterns in BWP exchange rates

    Upon close observation, it does not appear to be any obvious seasonality or recurring patterns within the given timeframe. The changes in rates do not show consistent patterns that occur in a predictable, repeating manner. Rates fluctuate slightly around the same range but these fluctuations don’t seem to recur at regular intervals, hence implying a lack of clear seasonality.

    Outliers in the dataset

    Generally, the exchange rates demonstrated small incremental fluctuations, which suggests that there weren't many significant outliers. However, there were some instances where the exchange rate differed slightly more than usual but these instances were infrequent and didn't create a noticeable impact on the overall trend. Therefore, it can be said that there are no significant outliers in the data that could potentially skew the average exchange rate or the assessment of its overall trend.

    In conclusion, the exchange rates over the given dataset are mainly stable with no significant outliers or prominent patterns of seasonality.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    The exchange rate, BWP, in the given period shows a slight fluctuation. However, the overall trend of the data seems to be relatively stable with few significant jumps or drops. The BWP values mostly range between 0.097 and 0.10. While there are tweaks in the rates, there is no significant increasing or decreasing trend in the overall period. The highest and lowest rates throughout this period were 0.09943 and 0.09776 respectively.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    As this dataset spans over a very small period in the realm of financial time-series of about a month, it is challenging to identify a clear seasonality or recurring pattern in the changes of exchange rates. While daily fluctuations are common in forex markets, extending this judgment to denote a seasonal pattern would not be accurate. In this dataset, regular or systematic fluctuations do not seem to appear with a definite frequency and interval of time. To truly understand the seasonality or recurring patterns, we would need a bigger and longer dataset.

    Outlier Detection and Analysis

    A couple of points stand out as potential outliers. The data points at the timestamp '2024-02-13 08:00:04' where the value suddenly jumps to 0.09899 from the previous rates hovering around 0.09795 and then continues to increase to reach at a highest for this period i.e., 0.09932 before dropping again to 0.09866. This is a significant unusual spike. Similarly, towards the end of data set, on '2024-02-23 10:00:03' there is a sharp decline to 0.0978 and even further, becoming the lowest point in the data set with 0.09776 at '2024-02-23 12:00:03'.

    These fluctuations could be due to a multitude of reasons, like geopolitical events, significant financial news, or large transactions by institutional players. However, without the specific context or additional data attributes, assigning a specific cause to these outliers is not possible. It is also important to note that these outliers do not significantly deviate from the general range of the BWP rates during the given period – they are within the 0.097 and 0.10 boundaries.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Overall Trend Analysis

    To analyze the overall trend of the exchange rates, we observe the rates over the period defined in the dataset. There's a slight fluctuation in the exchange rate, but it does not follow a consistent upward or downward trajectory. The fluctuations during this period are within a narrow range with a mean around 0.098, suggesting that the exchange rate is fairly stable.

    Seasonality Analysis

    Concerning seasonality, the presented data is not extensive enough to draw firm conclusions on long-term recurrent patterns. It only covers a few days within February. However, some minor fluctuations could be part of an intraday pattern, perhaps correlating with trading activity in different global markets. More data would be needed to confirm any seasonality.

    Identification of Outliers

    We didn't observe any significant outliers in the given dataset, as the exchange rate mostly fluctuated within a specific range, and there were no exceptionally high or low values that would take it off the trend.

    It's important to note that this analysis only considers the provided data and does not take into account external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. More detailed analysis would be possible if these factors could be taken into consideration.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
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  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Overall Trend

    Initially, the BWP exchange rate starts at 0.09814 at the first timestamp, and gradually oscillates around the same approximate range. Towards the middle of the dataset, the value starts drastically decreasing down to 0.09756 before steadily increasing to peak at 0.0979. From there, it seems to decline slowly, ending the period at approximately 0.0978, showing a general overall decrease in the BWP exchange rate during the timeframe provided.

    Recurring Patterns

    The exchange rates fluctuate frequently in this time series data, though there are no obvious seasonal trends observed in this dataset. The exchange rate oscillates within a small range for the most part, suggesting that the exchange rate is quite stable and only fluctuating within a few basis points. Repeatedly, the rate goes on a slightly increasing track, then followed by a mild decrease, implying there is certain repetitiveness in the BWP exchange rate's fluctuation. However, the absence of date-specific data for months or years prevents a precise determination of seasonality in these fluctuations.

    Outliers in the Data

    The major outlier is a significant dip in the exchange rate occurring at around the timestamp of "2024-02-23 06:20:02", where the exchange rate drops sharply from 0.09813 to 0.09764. This is a considerable drop compared with the other fluctuations in the dataset and stands out as an anomaly.

    Conclusion

    Based on the time series data provided, the exchange rate of BWP exhibits a slight overall decrease with minor fluctuations over the observed period. There was one significant outlier noted, but without any specific event marking or relevant external market factors accompanying the dataset, the causes of this drop remain unexplained. Furthermore, while there are patterns of oscillating increases and decreases in the rate, I could not make any definitive statements on seasonality due to the data's limitations.