New Zealand Dollar Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Overall Trend Analysis

    The given dataset of NZD exchange rate shows some fluctuations over the course of a single day. However, when observed over a longer span of time, the general trend of the NZD exchange rate is decreasing. This is evident considering the highest point at the beginning of the given data (0.82841) which gradually decreases to end at 0.82658, with slight fluctuations.

    Seasonality and Patterns

    The exchange rates do not seem to show a prominent sign of seasonality with respect to a particular timing in this single-day data. The fluctuations are rather sporadic and don't follow a clear repetitive pattern that can be attributed to seasonal factors. However, for a more accurate assessment of seasonality, data spanning across multiple days or months would be required.

    Outliers Observation

    In the given dataset, there are no major outliers or instances where the exchange rate drastically differs from the general trend. While there are slight fluctuations which are a norm in exchange rate data, no substantial deviation is observed. Again, it is important to note that we are examining data that spans a single day, and identifying outliers could be more precise with a larger dataset.

    Conclusion

    The given data displays the typical characteristics of financial time series data, with random volatility and lack of pattern within a short span (single day). However, an overall decreasing trend is noticed in the NZD exchange rate for this data. For more accurate trend analysis, seasonality and outlier detection, a larger time series dataset, preferably spanning over multiple days or months, would be beneficial.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    The Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) exchange rates in the given dataset exhibit a mildly fluctuating behavior throughout the sampling period. The highest observed rate is 0.82894, while the lowest is 0.82594. The data does not indicate a significant increasing or decreasing trend as such; instead, the exchange rate remains fairly stable, with minor oscillations. A detailed timeseries plot could better visualize these shifts.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    On the surface, the data doesn't seem to exhibit any overt seasonality or regular recurrence in terms of a certain time or date. However, a deeper frequency analysis using methods such as Fourier spectral analysis or autocorrelation functions may unearth subtle seasonal or cyclical patterns otherwise missed by the casual observer.

    Outliers and Exceptions

    Given the relatively stable behavior of the exchange rates, fluctuations are mostly minor, and a singular rate shift does not stray too far from its immediate neighbours. Therefore, an outlier analysis might not unveil any threatening red flags in this scenario. A mathematical outlier detection analysis can nonetheless be used to identify any rate that deviates significantly from the typical behavior.

    Note: The inferences drawn here are based on a cursory overview of the data points and might not represent any complex patterns or exotic behavior that could be unearthed by a more rigorous, technical analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the Overall Trend

    The overall trend of the NZD exchange rates shown in the dataset seems to be fluctuating over the provided period. The rates start at 0.83317 and end at 0.83196, which indicates a slight decrease. However, throughout the period, the rates rise and fall multiple times without a significant consistent upward or downward trend.

    2. Identifying Seasonality

    Given that the data is limited to a single day, it is difficult to identify any clear seasonal or recurring patterns. There seems to be some fluctuation that could potentially be tied to trading hours, but without more data, it's difficult to make any definitive conclusions about seasonality.

    3. Noting Outliers

    Upon initial review, the dataset does not seem to contain any outlier values. The rates fluctuate within a relatively narrow range between 0.83155 and 0.83549. There are no individual instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend. However, a more statistical approach could be employed to identify whether there are any significant outliers not immediately visible.

    Overall, the data paints a picture of typical exchange rate fluctuations over the course of a single day. It would be beneficial to have additional data to deepen the analysis and better identify trends, patterns, and outliers.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend

    From a broad perspective, the NZD exchange rates depicted in the dataset seem to fluctuate within a specific range during the given period, with slight increases and decreases. The data suggests a predominantly stable pattern, with minor fluctuations from January 2024 till February 2024 that do not represent a definitive upward or downward trend.

    Identifying Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    The dataset does not suggest a clear or evident seasonal trend or recurring exchange rate patterns over the given timestamps. However, to affirm these observations, more advanced techniques for identifying seasonal variations might be needed, such as Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models or other time-series analysis methods.

    Noting Outliers

    While it's challenging to detect outliers from the raw dataset, the NZD exchange rates generally oscillate within a range. Abrupt and substantial changes in the exchange rates are infrequent and can potentially be considered outliers. Notwithstanding, a statistical test or visualization technique might be more precise in the identification of these outliers.

    For instance, any rate that falls beyond a standard deviations from the mean might be identified as an outlier. However, this would require calculating the mean and standard deviation of the dataset and comparing each data point to these measures which is not done in this analysis.

    Note: Despite these interpretations, detailed and advanced analyses would need to be performed for accurate insights about the trend, seasonality, and outliers in a time-series data such as this.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    From the given data, we can observe the exchange rate gradually increases from 0.82837 around the beginning of the dataset (Timestamp: 2024-02-19 01:00:02) to 0.83631 around the end (Timestamp: 2024-02-23 14:00:01). Though there are fluctuations, the overall trend depicts an increasing exchange rate for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

    Identifying Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Defining any seasonality or recurring pattern could be challenging from only intra-day data. However, by observing the dataset, we can notice some periods during the day when the NZD exchange rate sees significant changes. For example, the change from 2024-02-19 06:00:02 with a rate of 0.82718 to 2024-02-19 09:00:03 with a rate of 0.82869 and eventually to 2024-02-19 12:00:03 with a rate of 0.82902. However, these fluctuations do not seem to indicate a daily clear-cut pattern.

    Observing Outliers or Unexpected Exchange Rates

    Within this dataset, there are periods where the currency experienced drastic changes within a short time period. An instance of this behaviour can be witnessed around 2024-02-20 2:00:03 where the exchange rate changed from 0.82904 at 01:00:02 to 0.83034 at 03:00:02. Another significant upswing is also seen around 2024-02-20 05:00:02 where the rate increased from 0.83174 to 0.83516 within 4 hours. Though no significant outliers were detected, these fluctuations could easily affect a financial model's efficacy, so they must be carefully managed key considerations.

    In conclusion, the NZD exchange rate data showed an overall trend of increase throughout the period, with fluctuations throughout. However, no distinct daily pattern or seasonality was clearly visible. Some significant increases and decreases were noted which should receive careful attention when modelling.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Understanding the Overall Trend

    From a brief observation of the dataset, it seems that the NZD exchange rate slightly fluctuates throughout the day. It started at a rate of 0.83585, reached a peak of 0.8368, then gradually cooled down to 0.83631 by the end of the series. This indicates a relatively stable trend with minute fluctuations, but not a prominent increase or decrease over the time shown.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    It's difficult to surmise any clear seasonality or recurring patterns based on the provided dataset. The exchange rate does seem to experience minute fluctuations within a narrow band throughout the period, which might hint towards some cycles. However, to clarify any recurrent pattern, more data might be required that extends over different timespans (like days, weeks, or months).

    Noting Outliers or Unexpected Instances

    Upon review of the NZD exchange rate within this period, it does not appear to contain any outliers or unpredicted variations beyond the normal fluctuation range. The rate stayed within a small range, the lowest being around 0.83458 and the highest approximately 0.8368. Thus the values do not deviate significantly from the mean.

    External Factors

    Given the narrow window of time this data covers, we cannot draw any conclusions regarding the effects of market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or key financial news and reports on the exchange rate. Indeed, without information about when these events take place or specific event markers in the dataset, we cannot investigate the influence of these factors. It should be noted, however, that such factors could potentially introduce additional volatility or changes in trends within a data series.