Pataca Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

The data shows a general decrease in the exchange rate (MOP) over the given time period. The exchange rate starts at 0.16991 at the first timestamp, peaks briefly at 0.17036, and then gradually decreases, reaching a low of 0.16945 by the end of the timeframe. Therefore, we observe a downward trend indicating the depreciation of the exchange rate throughout the given period.

Seasonality and Recurring Pattern Analysis

Regarding the seasonality or recurring patterns, it is difficult to determine from the given data due to the short duration covered (approximately one day) and the high frequency of the data (every few minutes). For a proper understanding of seasonality, longer time series data is usually needed. However, the data seems to be fairly consistent, with small fluctuations throughout the day. That said, no distinctive recurring pattern is observed in the given timeframe.

Outlier Analysis

Throughout the dataset, we observe small gradual variations in the exchange rate rather than any significant jumps or dips. Hence, no significant outliers are identified. All points appear to align fairly well with the overall trend of the data, with no instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the trend. Ultimately, the data exhibits strong consistency in its temporal progression.

Closing Remarks

This analysis provides an overview of the given exchange rate data, depicting the overall trend, recurring patterns (if any), and any outliers. A full-fledged statistical study and modeling would be required for more advanced and detailed insights. Also, several other external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, and release of key financial news and reports can impact the exchange rate making the analysis more complex.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Analysis Summary

The comprehensive analysis of the given dataset, which showcases a time series representation of MOP exchange rates at different timestamps, offers the following insights:

1. Trend of the Exchange Rates

The overall trend in the MOP exchange rates indicates a pattern of gradual fluctuations with no clear upward or downward trend. The exchange rates oscillate within a rather narrow band, indicating a generally stable market for the MOP currency during the period under consideration.

2. Seasonality in the Exchange Rates

There don't appear to be any clear seasonal patterns or consistent recurrences in the dataset as per the provided data. The exchange rates show a level of variability, but not a periodic or recurring nature that might signify a seasonal pattern.

3. Identification of Outliers

While there exist some instances of more notable changes in the exchange rate, these do not significantly deviate from the central trend and hence cannot be explicitly flagged as outliers. Given the narrow range within which the fluctuations occur, even relatively moderate changes might seem more pronounced but they do not necessarily denote a divergence from the general trend.

Please note that the analysis provided is focused solely on the data contained within the provided dataset and does not factor in external influences such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, the release of key financial news and reports, and other possible events or factors that could potentially impact the exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The overall trend of the exchange rate appears to be relatively stable with slight increments throughout the day. The trend tends to fluctuate around 0.16944 to 0.16954 in the first half of the day. However, a sudden increase in the exchange rate to 0.1701 is observed at around 20:00.

2. Identifying any Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in the Changes of Exchange Rates

The data provided does not indicate an evident seasonal trend or recurring pattern in the exchange rates. Although there is some level of rate fluctuation visible, the dataset would need to be larger and encompass a more extensive timeline (e.g., yearly or quarterly data) to identify any seasonality or recurring patterns accurately.

3. Noting any Outliers, or Instances Where the Exchange Rate Differs Significantly

The noticeable significant change occurs at around 20:00. At this timestamp, there is an increase in the exchange rate from approximately 0.169 to approximately 0.17. This deviates from the rates observed throughout the day. However, it stabilizes shortly after this time period. Since no external factors like market opening/closing hours or financial news releases are considered in this analysis, it's difficult to determine the exact cause of this outlier.

Summary of Last Month

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Trend

1. Overall Trend Analysis

Upon reviewing the dataset, it can be observed that the exchange rates tend to fluctuate within a relatively narrow range. An increasing trend appears in the data from 0.16954 to 0.17039. Though there are minor fluctuations, the rate generally returns to its original value. However, later there is a visible decrease in the rate towards 0.16955. Hence, it can be concluded that over the period shown, the exchange rate generally remained stable with minor fluctuations.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

As this dataset is only for a single day and does not cover enough period to clearly identify any seasonality or recurring patterns at a daily, weekly, or monthly level. However, during the day, we can somewhat observe certain volatility periods. For instance, the exchange rate tends to slightly increase around 00:25, 02:20, and 02:55, and it decreases around 06:25, 09:45, and 11:20. Although this can't be confirmed without data for more days.

3. Observations on Outliers

For this particular day, exchange rates seem to fluctuate within a very limited range, thus there were no significant outliers observed. The biggest drop happening at 06:25 from 0.17020 to 0.16988 could potentially be considered as a minor outlier due to its sudden drop. Again, without more comprehensive data, it remains challenging to determine if this rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality.

It's critical to note that because exchange rates are influenced by a wide range of factors including macroeconomic indicators, market sentiment, and geopolitical events, the trends observed in places are likely subject to change with different external conditions and events.

Summary of Last Week

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Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend

The dataset provided depicts a relative stability in the exchange rates over the time period. An upward and downward trend is apparent, but the variations are quite small and they always revolve around the value of 0.17. The lowest exchange rate value recorded was 0.1672 while the highest was up to 0.1715. This suggests there wasn't a large fluctuation in the exchange rates during the given period.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Given the data at hand which spans for just a little over month, and without additional context (like daily trading volume), it is difficult to precisely ascertain any strong seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates. However, it is noticeable that the rates tend to rise and fall within a day and with no significant wider weekly visible pattern.

3. Noting Any Outliers

In this dataset, no significant outliers were observed. The exchange rates remained within the range of 0.167 to 0.1715, suggesting that no sudden spikes or drops occurred during the period examined. The tight grouping of the data also rules out the possibility of a strong outlier skewing the overall analysis. It can be concluded that the exchange rates remained relatively stable and behaved within expectations.

In conclusion, based on the data analysis of the exchange rates from this period, it can be said that the rates are relatively stable without any large fluctuations or outliers. It is important to note that the data only covers a short period of time and a more long-term dataset would provide a better analysis of trends, patterns, and outliers. Additionally, the availability of high frequency data (like intra-day-level data) and external factors such as trading volumes, major political/economic news etc. could provide a deeper analysis and enable accurate predictions of exchange rate movements.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Data Analysis

The analysis is based on the time-series data of the MOP exchange rate from 2024-04-15 to 2024-04-19. Without considering specific events or external factors like market opening or closing hours and weekends or holidays, the following information was inferred from the data provided:

1. Overall Trend

The overall trend in the dataset indicates slight fluctuations in the MOP exchange rates over the provided duration. It started at 0.17035 on 2024-04-15 and ended at 0.17031 on 2024-04-19.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

During the analyzed period, there are no clear recurrent patterns or seasonality. The exchange rates vary at different times of the day. However, a comprehensive trend or seasonality may not necessarily manifest in such a short period and may require a much longer time series data for accurate detection.

3. Outliers

An outlier event can be noticed on 2024-04-18 when the exchange rate dropped to the lowest value of 0.17002 for the whole analyzed duration. On this day, the exchange rate varied significantly from the general trend before it began to increase again.

Summary

Overall, the exchange rates exhibit minimal fluctuations with no clear upward or downward trend within this short period. However, to have a more accurate understanding of the trend, seasonality, or outliers, an analysis should be carried out over a more extended period. Furthermore, external factors such as financial news releases, market events could also significantly impact the variability in exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

The analysis of your dataset has found the following insights:

Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The overall trend of the exchange rate values is generally stable for the period shown in the dataset. It starts at around a value of 0.17022 and at the end of the timeframe, the value is still very close at 0.17044. This indicates a consistent rate with minimal fluctuation. Although there are minor ups and downs observed during the period, no significant increase or decrease trend can be seen from this data in the specific timespan provided.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

When considering seasonality or recurring patterns, due to the granularity of the time series data, and the relatively short period which it covers, it is difficult to confidently identify strong seasonal trends or recurring patterns from this dataset. The exchange rate remains relatively stable and doesn't demonstrate a clear cyclical pattern that could be deemed seasonal or recurring within the provided timestamps.

Noting Outliers

Outliers in a dataset typically refer to values that significantly differ from the rest. Looking at the dataset, the exchange rates seem to be fairly tightly clustered around the 0.170 mark, suggesting a high degree of stability. One might note a temporary spike at 2024-04-19 between 06:25:02 and 07:05:03, where the values reached up to 0.17067 (a marginal increase). Additionally, at 2024-04-19 11:35:03 to 11:40:02, there was a slight increase to 0.17052. However, these increases are minor, and the rates swiftly revert back to the regular level. They are not extreme enough to be classified as significant outliers. Therefore, any significant outliers are not discernible based on the provided dataset.