Pataca Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend in Exchange Rates

    Firstly, examining the trend of the exchange rates in the given dataset can help us understand the general direction the exchange rate is moving over time. Analyzing the data, it can be observed that the overall trend of the MOP exchange rate over the outlined period is somewhat fluctuating without a consistent upward or downward pattern.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    As per the time-stamped data, there isn't substantial evidence to point towards identifiable seasonality or recurring patterns in the MOP exchange rate. A few instances had somewhat similar rates, but these don't establish a definite pattern to predict future trends.

    Outliers in the Dataset

    No pronounced outliers were identified in the given time-series data representing the MOP exchange rate. Most values lie within a close range between approximately 0.168 and 0.169, showing a small standard deviation. Thus, there weren't any significant variations found at particular times that might indicate an outlier in the dataset.

    Conclusion

    To sum up, the analysis of the provided data shows the MOP exchange rate fluctuates with no strong upward or downward trends. There were no identifiable recurring patterns or seasonality. The data did not contain any significant outliers. It's important to note that factors external to this dataset could influence these observations. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis might include market factors and global events, although such an analysis was not undertaken in this instance.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    From the provided data, we can observe a slight increase in the exchange rates over the given period. The rate started around the 0.1678 mark and concluded around the 0.1685 value, showing a slight upward tendency. The trend seems to be more prone to slight fluctuations than any significant rise or falls.

    Identifying Seasonality

    Due to limited dataset, it's difficult to confirm any potential seasonality. However, a recurring pattern seemingly exists in the data where the exchange rate tends to slightly increase or decrease rather than abruptly rise or fall over the course of a day. Nevertheless, a more comprehensive dataset covering multiple cycles (years) would be necessary for a more detailed seasonal and cyclical analysis.

    Outlier Analysis

    Looking at the provided data-series, no obvious outliers can be pinpointed, and the exchange rate appears to fluctuate within a reasonable range around the trend. This suggests that the exchange rate is staying within expected boundaries based on previous behaviors.

    Note

    Please keep in mind that this analysis is fundamental and purely based on given data. A thorough validation may require a more sophisticated statistical analysis, considering market volatility, as well as potential impacts due to external financial conditions not included in the current data set.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    From the data provided, the exchange rates fluctuated within a range of 0.16748 and 0.16789. It is noted that the variation is not very high which suggests that the exchange rate remained relatively stable over the dataset period. We can confirm that the rates neither show a consistent increase nor a decline as the numbers fluctuate within the range.

    2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Upon reviewing the exchange rate data, we did not observe a clear pattern or seasonality. The exchange rates appear to move randomly within the given range without exhibiting consistent highs or lows at specific times. Therefore, concluding from the provided data, there seem to be no regular or recurring patterns in these exchange rates.

    3. Noting Any Outliers

    Generally, an outlier in a data set is an extreme value that differs significantly from other observations. In the context of this exchange rate data, it can be considered as an unusually high or low exchange rate compared to the typical range. By analyzing the dataset, we do not see any significant outliers as such. All the recorded exchange rates are in close proximity to each other, and there are no significant deviations or spikes in the rates that would indicate the presence of an outlier.

    Therefore, considering these observations, we confirm that the exchange rates remained relatively stable over the observed period with no clear seasonality or recurring patterns nor any significant outliers.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Overall, the exchange rate of popular currency, MOP, over the period shown in the dataset exhibits a relatively stable trend, with slight fluctuations. Although there are slight rises and falls in the exchange rate values, there is no clear extended period of continuous or significant increases or decreases. Instead, the rate tends to fluctuate around a relatively consistent value of around 0.167-0.168.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns

    At the granular level, there doesn't appear to be a clear daily seasonality or pattern to the fluctuation in exchange rates based on the given timestamp. In fact, the changes in the exchange rate do not demonstrate a clear repetition or periodicity that would suggest the presence of seasonality. This might be due to several factors influencing exchange rates, including economic performance, interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical events.

    3. Noting any outliers

    Within the analyzed period, there are no significant outliers where the exchange rate deviates significantly from the general trend. No sudden spikes or drops in the exchange rates are evident throughout the dataset. Any observed deviations from the mean value are relatively small, indicating that the exchange rate has remained fairly steady throughout the period under review.

    In conclusion, the MOP exchange rate exhibits a stable trend with minor fluctuations and no apparent seasonality or significant outliers. However, it's essential to continually monitor and analyze exchange rate datasets of this nature due to the ongoing influence of various economic, financial, and political factors.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Comprehensive Analysis of the MOP Exchange Rate Time Series Data

    The data provided represents the changes in the MOP exchange rate over different timestamps. To gain a deeper understanding of the trends and patterns within the data, the analysis was completed in three separate sections: overall trends, seasonality or recurring patterns, and the identification of any outliers.

    1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    An examination of the entire dataset reveals the existence of a slightly increasing trend in the exchange rates. The values, starting at approximately 0.16726, do not remain constant but display a small and gradual increase where the rate culminates at about 0.16751. Despite short-term fluctuations, the overall trend indicates an increase in the MOP exchange rates during the period captured in the dataset.

    2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Given the nature of the data, it is challenging to determine seasonality as the dataset isn't straightforwardly seasonal (such as sale rates that tend to spike during certain seasons). However, based on the timestamps provided, there aren't any noticeable recurring patterns.

    3. Outliers in The Exchange Rates

    An outlier is a data point that significantly differs from the other observations. Such significantly different values can heavily impact the mean and standard deviation of the data, rendering a misleading representation. Upon reviewing the provided dataset, it is difficult to discern any clear outliers. The variations in the exchange rates are relatively minute, suggesting a stable rate with limited volatility.

    In conclusion, the scientific analysis of this time series data has indicated a gradual increase in the MOP exchange rates over the time frame captured. However, no clear seasonality or recurring patterns were identified, and no discernible outliers were found within the data points provided.

    Please note, this analysis was conducted purely on the provided dataset and did not factor in the potential impact of external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, as per the initial request.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    1. Understand the overall trend of exchange rates

    After analyzing the given data, it's observed that the MOP exchange rate displays a slight uptrend. Starting from a low of 0.16678, there are many fluctuations, but the rate generally rebounds and is on the rise. The highest rate reached was 0.16770. It is important to mention that the currency exchange is a highly volatile market and thus strict monitoring is always required.

    2. Identify seasonality or recurring patterns

    Given the span of the data is within a single day, it doesn't show obvious signs of seasonality or recurring patterns. Certain timely fluctuations occur, but they do not form a definite pattern. However, with data encompassing a larger time span (months or years), we could get a better idea about potential seasonality or patterns.

    3. Noting outliers

    In this dataset, there weren't noteworthy outliers. The values for the exchange rate stay within a short range of approximately 0.16678 and 0.16770. This demonstrates that throughout the given time span, the rates remained relatively stable without sudden significant rises or drops. There are however certain jumps in data like the jump from 0.16689 to 0.16724, which is significant in the scope of this dataset; however, they do not come under outliers in a general sense.

    Just to reiterate, this analysis did not take into account any external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of critical financial news and reports. Including such external factors could provide a more comprehensive summary of the exchange rate's behavior over time.