Rwanda Franc Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

From the provided dataset, the Rwandan Franc (RWF) exchange rate remains largely stable throughout the given time frame. The dataset spans across different timestamps of a single day (April 25, 2024), and the exchange rate of RWF is at 0.00106 for most of the time. However, there is a slight dip to 0.00105 from the timestamp "2024-04-25 13:10:03" that lasted till the timestamp "2024-04-25 20:10:02". Following that, the exchange rate returned to its previous rate of 0.00106 and maintained stability for the rest of the observed period.

Identification of Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Given the short time span of a single day, it is challenging to identify seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates. Seasonality, by definition, is the presence of variations that occur at specific regular intervals less than a year, such as weekly, monthly, or quarterly. In this context, we would need data spanning across several weeks, months, or years to accurately identify any seasonality. The data provided does not allow for a comprehensive analysis of such patterns. Therefore, within the limited range of this data, no clear seasonal or cyclical patterns can be definitively identified.

Observation of Outliers

With respect to the data provided, an 'outlier' is the small dip in exchange rate to 0.00105, occurring from the timestamp "2024-04-25 13:10:03" until "2024-04-25 20:10:02". This slight variation is an outlier considering the otherwise steady exchange rate of 0.00106 throughout the day. Nonetheless, it's important to mention that in financial markets, such slight variations are not uncommon and can be influenced by dynamic market conditions and multiple factors such as trade volumes, economic indicators, geopolitical events, among others.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The exchange rates provided in the dataset show a slight overall downward trend, with the majority of rates ranging between 0.00106 and 0.00107, but predominantly settling around 0.00106 towards the end of the dataset. The variation is quite minute, indicating minimal fluctuation in the exchange rates during this period.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Regarding seasonality or recurrent patterns, there is not a clear pattern within the provided dataset's time frame. The exchanges remain stable at two rates, 0.00107 and 0.00106, for this period with changes not tied to a discernible time-based pattern. A more extended period dataset might be necessary to identify any underlying seasonality.

Identifying Outliers

Given the stability and slight decrease of the rates during the observed period, there do not appear to be any significant outliers in the dataset. All recorded changes fall within the 0.00106 to 0.00107 range, with no significant or unexpected spikes or dips noted. A more detailed statistical analysis could provide information on subtle outliers, but none are immediately apparent from the current analysis.

In summary, the time-series dataset for the given period shows a minor but consistent decrease in exchange rates. However, there isn't a clear seasonal or recurring pattern in the changes observed, and no significant outliers can be detected from the given dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overview of the Dataset and Initial Observations

The dataset provided represents a time series of RWF exchange rates sampled at specific timestamps from April 23, 2024. There are 249 data points in the dataset spanning from 00:00:02 to 23:55:02 the same day, indicating the dataset provides us with a full day's exchange rate fluctuation.

This overall data seems to be virtually stable within the scope of this one day. The vast majority of the data points are at an exchange rate of 0.00106, with a slight decline to 0.00105 observed near the middle of the day, which then returns to 0.00106 by the end of the day. Towards the end of the day, we also see an increase to 0.00107.

Understanding Overall Trends

From the data points provided, there seems to be a slight overall decrease in the exchange rate mid-day before it starts to increase again towards the end of the day. Specifically, the exchange rate remained stable at 0.00106 for approximately half of the day before it slightly dropped to 0.00105 for some time and then moved back up to 0.00106, and later on increased to 0.00107 near the end of the day.

Identification of Seasonality

As we have only one day's worth of data, detecting significant seasonality or recurring patterns is not feasible based on this data alone. We would need multiple days, preferably across different months and years, to determine if any true seasonality exists in these exchange rates.

Outliers and Significant Deviations

The fluctuations in this data are quite small–only moving between 0.00105 and 0.00107. This suggests the presence of minimal, if any, outliers within this dataset. The magnitude of these changes also seems to be quite consistent, which indicates there are no significant unexpected variances or spikes in the exchange rates throughout this day.

The maximum deviation from the most frequent exchange rate (0.00106) is 0.00001 which may not be considered significant depending on the scale and the particular use case for this exchange rate.

We should keep in mind that the absence of significant outliers and variances in the dataset does not necessarily mean the absence of situations where the exchange rate differs from the general trend. Rather, it suggests that during this particular day, and with this particular currency pair, the market conditions were relatively stable and did not experience significant shocks.

Keep in mind that conclusions derived from this analysis may not generalize well to other days, market conditions, or currency pairs. This analysis does not consider external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports which can have significant impacts on currency exchange rates.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Analysis of the RWF Exchange Rate

The comprehensive analysis of the provided dataset, consisting of timestamped changes in the RWF exchange rates, is detailed below:

1. Understanding the Overall Trend

The dataset shows that the RWF exchange rate seems quite stable over the period under review. The rate value fluctuates between 0.00106 and 0.00107 throughout the period. As such, there doesn't seem to be a clear or significant increase or decrease in the exchange rates over this period.

2. Identification of Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Given the stable nature of the exchange rates throughout the dataset, there's no clear seasonality or recurring patterns observed. The exchange rate doesn't exhibit characteristic changes or shifts that would indicate seasonality or a pattern to the changing rates over time. Further analysis with a more extended period or additional data might be required to ascertain this aspect.

3. Noting Any Outliers

Considering the stability of the exchange rates within the range of 0.00106 and 0.00107, there are no obvious outliers in the dataset. This means that within this timeframe, no instances where the exchange rate deviates significantly from the trend have been identified.

It's important to note that the statements above are based solely on the time-series data analysis of the provided dataset. Any interpretation or insight might vary with the inclusion of other potentially influential factors that aren't given consideration in this analysis.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Based on the dataset, the value of the RWF exchange rate oscillates around 0.00105 and 0.00107. There is no clear consistent trend towards increase or decrease. There are moments where the rate goes up to 0.00107 but it tends to fall back to around 0.00105. Thus, over the period shown in the dataset, the exchange rate remains relatively stable with minor fluctuations.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, the data provided does not show any clear patterns. The rate consistently fluctuates between 0.00105 and 0.00107 with no identifiable period of high or low rates. Thus, it can be concluded that, for the data provided, rate changes do not seem to follow a certain seasonal pattern.

3. Noting Outliers

Outliers in a data set are values that lie an abnormal distance from other values. In this dataset, no discernable outliers were identified. All values of exchange rates lie between 0.00105 and 0.00107, and as such, no abnormal deviation was observed. Therefore, based on this particular dataset, it appears that the exchange rates act within a confined range, without exhibiting significant divergence that could indicate impactful external events or anomalies.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the data shows that the exchange rate of RWF during the period in question is rather consistent, with minor fluctuations between 0.00105 and 0.00107. There is no discernible upward or downward trend, and no noticeable seasonal or repeatable patterns. Furthermore, no significant outliers were observed.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Trend Analysis

After analysing the provided data, it is observed that the exchange rate for RWF has remained mostly stable over the entire period, fluctuating marginally between 0.00106 and 0.00107 without a discernible upward or downward trend.

2. Seasonality Analysis

For the timeframe given and the scope of the available data, no clear seasonality or recurring patterns could be identified from the exchange rate changes. The fluctuations between 0.00106 and 0.00107 occur sporadically, and no specific time of day or day of the week appears to be consistently associated with either the higher or the lower rate.

3. Outliers Analysis

Only two unique rates (0.00106 and 0.00107) are present in the dataset, both of which occur frequently. Hence, there are no observable instances of values that differ substantially from an average, or expected, rate based on the existing data. Consequently, within the provided dataset, there appear to be no outliers in the data.

4. External Factors

While the directive was to disregard external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, such factors could likely have a significant influence on exchange rate fluctuations in a more general context. Nevertheless, such factors did not appear to significantly impact the narrowly ranging exchange rates in our current dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall trend of the exchange rates

Based on the provided dataset, the overall trend of the exchange rates of the Rwandan Franc (RWF) remains quite stable throughout the given period. The rate primarily hovers around the value of 0.00106, with occasional instances where it increases to 0.00107. This shows a slight fluctuation but not a significant trend in either an upward or downward direction.

Seasonality or recurring patterns

Regarding recurring patterns and seasonality, the dataset does not seem to exhibit any clear or noticeable patterns. The minor fluctuation between 0.00106 and 0.00107 appears to be random rather than showing a periodic or cyclical variation. Any potential pattern might be masked by the relatively short time frame covered by the data, and could become clearer with longer-term data.

Outliers in the exchange rates

Outliers in this context would be instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the stable rate of approximately 0.00106 - 0.00107. Going through the dataset, we have no such instances, and therefore, the dataset does not appear to contain any significant outliers.

Please note that this is a basic analysis relying strictly on the provided dataset. For a more detailed, accurate, and insightful analysis, additional data or information would be beneficial, such as longer-term data, more granular data (e.g., per minute), and information on related factors (e.g., economic indicators, financial market performance).