Rwanda Franc Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Before diving into the analysis, I would like to mention that, based on the provided data, it spans a little over 23 hours in a single day (29th of February, 2024) and the RWF exchange rate ranges between 0.00105 and 0.00107. So, I'm going to provide you an analysis on this given time frame:

    Understanding the Overall Trend

    The overall data suggest a slight oscillation between the values of 0.00105 and 0.00107. The exchange rates started off at 0.00107, declined to 0.00106 within a few minutes, and then oscillated between these two values for several hours. It then declined further to 0.00105, the lowest point for the day, which persisted for several hours towards the end of this time period. The rate then rose back to 0.00106 in the last hours. Thus, although the rate fluctuated within a very narrow range, there is a minor drop noticed from the start to the end of the day in the time series.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    The data provided covers only a 24 hour period, which typically isn't sufficient to confirm existence of a seasonal pattern. Seasonal patterns often emerge only over longer periods of time, like months or years. However, there's a recurrent pattern in this dataset that the RWF exchange rate doesn't exceed 0.00107 and doesn't go lower than 0.00105. It is predominantly oscillating between 0.00105 and 0.00107, suggesting perhaps an upper and lower bound within this time period.

    Outliers Analysis

    From the given dataset and the very narrow range within which the RWF exchange rates oscillate, there are no significant outliers in the data as the exchange rate falls between the range of 0.00105 to 0.00107. No sudden spikes or drops are observed that could be considered as outliers.

    Please note that this analysis should ideally be followed up with further exploration that takes into consideration a longer time period, as well as potentially influential external factors not included in this data set.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
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  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Understanding the Overall Trend

    The dataset captured market data for a single day (February 28, 2024). The exchange rate of the Rwandan Franc (RWF) has been generally stable throughout the entire day, primarily maintaining an exchange rate of 0.00106. However, there is a slight increase to 0.00107 starting at approximately 06:45:02, and this slightly higher rate periodically appears several more times throughout the day. The data demonstrates a trend of stability with minor fluctuations.

    Identifying Seasonality

    Since the provided dataset covers a single day, it's difficult to make claims about seasonality or recurring patterns. To accurately identify and assess any seasonality or recurring patterns, more prolonged historical data (covering months or years) would be required. However, it's worth noting that the slight increase to 0.00107 tends to occur more frequently after 06:45:02 throughout various times of the day.

    Noting Outliers

    The exchange rate primarily fluctuated between 0.00106 and 0.00107. Therefore, any rates outside this range could be considered as outliers, given this specific dataset. As per the provided data, there does not appear to be any significant outliers. The dataset shows a high degree of stability throughout the monitored period.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The dataset provided includes timestamps and corresponding exchange rates which are uniformly distributed.The exchange rate of RWF provided in the dataset is relatively stable over the period, with no significant increasing or decreasing trend discerned.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Concerning the seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rate fluctuations, there aren't any detectable patterns within this dataset. The provided dataset maintains a stable value of 0.00106 for a considerable amount of time and then drops to 0.00104 for another substantial period with a similar pattern of stability. There are no visible recurring instances indicating a specific pattern of highs, lows, or trends tied to a seasonal or cyclical timing like daily or monthly patterns.

    Outliers in the Data

    Regarding outliers, the data looks consistent without any noticeable anomalies or instances where the exchange rate varies significantly from its usual trend within this dataset. The value of the exchange rate only shifts between 0.00104 and 0.00106, making it quite consistent.

    In conclusion, considering the data, the exchange rate of RWF during the specified timeline is relatively stable, indicating a firm and controlled currency market. There aren't any noticeable patterns, trends or fluctuations that could specify any kind of seasonality or market shifts. And finally, the data does not contain any outliers, further complementing the notion of a stable market condition. Please note that this analysis is solely based on the dataset provided and does not consider any other external factors or future forecasts.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    From the dataset provided, the exchange rate of RWF seems to remain generally stable, with slight fluctuations between the range of 0.00105 and 0.00107. The rate often oscillates between these values throughout the time series, suggesting a rather stable exchange rate over this particular period. However, specific trends might become more apparent with an in-depth visual analysis of data.

    2. Identifying Seasonality in Exchange Rates

    With the dataset provided, it is a more complex task to determine seasonality in the exchange rates given the relatively stable trend and the timeframe covered. We would typically expect to see clear and repetitive patterns in the data to confirm seasonality clearly. However, this dataset doesn't provide clear patterns upon basic inspection. Detailed statistical analysis or larger dataset could potentially unearth subtle seasonal patterns.

    3. Outliers in the Exchange Rates

    An outlier in this context would be values significantly different from the overall trend i.e., exchange rates much lower or higher than the usual 0.00105 - 0.00107 range. However, the dataset provided shows no instance of such outliers, as all exchange rates fall within a very narrow range and there are no significant dips or spikes.

    In summary, this preliminary analysis suggests that the exchange rate of RWF was relatively stable over the period covered, with slight fluctuations within a range but no apparent seasonality or significant surprises. However, a deeper analysis using specialized tools and techniques might uncover more complex patterns and nuances.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    The data provided represents a fairly consistent value of the exchange rate over time, although a slight variation can be observed towards the end. Here is a further breakdown:

    1. Overall Trend

    Upon analyzing the data, it can be observed that the overall trend of the RWF exchange rate has remained relatively stable from February 19, 2024, to February 23, 2024. The majority of the data points indicate an exchange rate of 0.00106, suggesting that during this time period, the exchange rate has experienced minimal fluctuations.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Given the short timeframe in question, it's difficult to definitively identify any potential seasonality or recurring patterns within the data. Although, the slightly lower values near the end might suggest a daily pattern. Nonetheless, a longer data series would be required to confirm such patterns.

    3. Outliers

    The data towards the end, around February 22, 2024, shows a marginal decrease in the exchange rate from 0.00106 to 0.00105. This could potentially be considered a mild outlier, as the exchange rate for the rest of the dataset remains at 0.00106. However, it is not a significant swing compared to the rest of the data. As such, it does not seem to disrupt the overall stability of the exchange rate during the observed period.

    Note: This analysis is based on the provided dataset only and does not take any external factors into account. As directed, no forecast of future rates was made. The analysis' completeness and accuracy would benefit from a longer data series and the inclusion of corroborating information.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    1. Understanding the Overall Trend

    Overall, the exchange rate of RWF appears quite stable throughout the dataset provided. For the majority of time stamps, the RWF rate holds at 0.00105. However, there is a slight increase to 0.00106 starting from the timestamp '2024-02-23 02:35:02' which holds constant until the end of the dataset. This jump indicates a minor escalation in the exchange rate, but it essentially remains constant for the remaining period.

    2. Identification of Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    The data set does not present any clear signs of seasonality or recurring patterns within the given time frame. Instead, it retains a steady value before and after a slight upturn. However, this judgment is based solely on the limited time series data provided. For a more comprehensive understanding of any possible seasonality, data spanning various seasons, months, or years might be required.

    3. Noting Outliers

    Given the consistency in the data set, there do not appear to be any significant outliers. All values are either 0.00105 or 0.00106, and the shift from one to the other is sustained rather than an anomalous one-off. Therefore, based on the information given, there aren't any instances where the exchange rate deviates significantly from the trend.