SDR (Special Drawing Right) Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall trend of exchange rates

    The overall trend of exchange rates seems to be relatively stable with some fluctuations. It begins at a value of 1.80396 at the start of the dataset and ends at a slightly lower rate of 1.79867. It is worth mentioning the path to this stable condition was not always balanced. There were several peaks where values went up to 1.80625 and valleys where it dropped to 1.79646. However, these values quickly corrected themselves and returned near the initial level. The trend, therefore, indicates a sporadic increase or decrease in rates, but the general direction is relatively stable.

    Seasonality and recurring patterns

    Regarding seasonality or recurring patterns, a finite conclusion is challenging to ascertain from the provided data. In the time frame given, there doesn't appear to be any clear seasonal trends or patterns. The changes in rates display fairly random characteristics, with no observable increase or decrease at regular intervals. However, please note that this doesn't eliminate the possibility of longer-term seasonal patterns that are beyond the scope of this specific dataset.

    Outliers in the dataset

    An initial overview of the data doesn't show noteworthy outliers where the exchange rate differs significantly from the trend. Most values tend to cluster slightly below 1.81 and slightly above 1.795. However, it is always important to consider that outliers could be more effectively found using statistical analytical methods or suitable anomaly detection techniques, that were not implemented in this instance as this is merely an observational analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Yesterday

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Summary of Last Month

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    Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    By analyzing the XDR exchange rate data, we notice a gradual increase over the given time period. Starting from around 1.78797 on 2024-02-26 00:00:02, the XDR rate rises to around 1.79516 on the same day at 09:20:02. Thereafter, the rate oscillates, however, maintaining a relatively consistent level. Therefore, barring daily fluctuations, we can say that the general trend of the exchange rate over this period of observation follows an increasing trajectory.

    Identifying Recurring Seasonality Patterns

    In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, due to the granularity of the timeline (every few minutes), it is challenging to detect any cyclical behavior within the given period. Although daily changes can be seen, the dataset does not span a sufficient length (like a few months or years) to draw conclusions about annual or quarterly seasonal patterns.

    Numerous Outliers or Unexpected Instances

    Throughout this period, there were several instances of noticeable swings in the exchange rates that deviate from the overall moderate increase or change. Specifically, a sharp rise from 1.78867 to 1.79415 around 06:15 to 06:20 on 26th Feb. The rate tends to fluctuate resulting in numerous spikes in the graph. These outliers underscore the volatile nature of exchange rates, which can be influenced by various transient factors that are not accounted for in this dataset.

    In conclusion, this dataset provides a comprehensive snapshot of the XDR exchange rates' trends, fluctuations, and anomalies over a specific day. Please note that understanding the full spectrum of forces at play in determining exchange rates often requires a more multi-faceted dataset and analysis considering various aspects such as geopolitical developments, economic indicators, and market sentiment.

Summary of Last Week

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    Analysis overview

    From the given Time-series data on exchange rates, we can draw a meaningful conclusion about the trend, patterns, fluctuations, and shocks in the rates.

    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates:

    The overall trend of the exchange rate over the period illustrated on the dataset can be analyzed by considering the starting and ending points of the data, as well as visualizing the data in a time series plot. Generally speaking, if the ending point of the trend line is higher than the starting point, it denotes that the exchange rates have increased over time. Conversely, if the ending point is lower than the starting point, it means the rates have decreased over time. If there are no significant differences, then the trend is relatively stable.

    Identifying Seasonality:

    Seasonality refers to periodic fluctuations that occur regularly based on a season. It's a pattern that repeats for a fixed period. It could be observed in the dataset for the XDR exchange rate with some days of weeks/months showing higher exchange rates than the others. For instance, if every month has a peak in a specific period week/month, we could say that there is a monthly seasonality.

    Outliers in Exchange Rates:

    An 'outlier' is an observation that lies an abnormal distance from other values in a random sample from a population. The outliers in this dataset are notable instances where the exchange rate significantly diverges from what was anticipated according to the trend or seasonality. Detecting outliers in the dataset would require statistical analysis using measures like the Z-score, IQR score, etc.

    Please note: This analysis doesn't consider specific events or factors like market hours, weekends, holidays, or financial news and reports. Such external factors can significantly impact the foreign exchange market and thus the XDR exchange rates as well, but they are beyond the scope of this analysis.

    Remember, this assessment is not predicting future rates but rather analyzing the existing data pattern.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    The given data displays the XDR exchange rate over a period ranging from 19th February 2024 to 23rd February 2024. Based on the given dataset, there is a general upward trend in the XDR exchange rate. At the beginning of the period, the exchange rate was approximately 1.78568, and it experienced fluctuations but ended with a rate of 1.78811.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns in Exchange Rates

    From the available dataset, it appears that within each day there is a general cycle where rates rise and fall in a somewhat predictable pattern. This cyclical pattern could represent daily trading volumes or other factors. However, it would be beneficial to consider more data in the future to establish a better understanding of these patterns.

    Identification of Any Outliers

    Regarding outliers, one instance occurs on February 20th, 2024, where there was a substantial jump from 1.78482 to 1.79003 within three hours. Another significant dip is seen on February 22nd at 21:00, where the rate falls from 1.7854 to 1.7811 in one hour. These are instances where the exchange rate differes considerably from the established trend.

    Note: This analysis doesn't take into account any specific events or external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends, holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Nor does it offer any forecast for future rates.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    The given dataset is a timestamped sequence of exchange rates from 00:00:02 on February 23, 2024, to 14:55:01 on the same day. The data points represent the exchange rate at five-minute intervals. Let's break down what the data tells us, based on the outlined goals.

    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The beginning exchange rate at the start of the day is 1.78092. Towards the end of the day, the exchange rate has increased to 1.7883. There is a general upward trend in the exchange rates over the course of the day. This can be concluded by tracing the exchange rates sequentially and noting the increase. However, it's also important to understand that the data exhibits volatility and there are intervals during the timeframe where the exchange rate decreases before it increases again.

    2. Identifying Any Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in Changes of Exchange Rates

    Since the data given only spans a single day, it might not be sufficient to identify any strong seasonality or recurring patterns. Seasonality often emerges over longer periods such as weeks, months, or years. However, a closer look at the data shows that there are periods where the exchange rate experiences short-term increases and decreases. For example, at around 01:05:02, there's a drop in exchange rate to 1.78029 before it rises again to 1.78059 at about 01:10:02. Similar patterns occur throughout the day, indicating some fluctuation in exchange rates within short time spans.

    3. Noting Any Outliers, or Instances Where the Exchange Rate Differs Significantly From What Would Be Expected Based on the Trend or Seasonality

    At 06:20:02, there's a significant increase from 1.7808 to 1.78529. Then, the rates decrease and hover around 1.783ish before another significant increase at 09:10:02 where it jumps to 1.78637. These could be considered as outliers since they deviate significantly from the trend observed in the data, where changes are usually in the second decimal place. These spikes may be due to reasons outside the scope of this analysis given that specific external factors such as economic news or market events are not being considered.

    To sum up, while there's a general upward trend in these exchange rates throughout the day, there are periods of volatility where the exchange rates drop before rising again. A couple of outliers were also observed where the rates increased significantly beyond regular fluctuations. However, due to the limitations of the single-day data set, it's challenging to observe any strong seasonality or recurring patterns in the data.