Comoro Franc Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    From the dataset provided, the exchange rate of KMF seems to showcase a static trend. Almost the entire dataset shows the value of KMF fluctuating only minimally between 0.00298 and 0.00299. This negligible deviation indicates prevalent stability in the KMF's exchange rate for the given time period.

    Seasonality in Exchange Rates

    In this case, the data set provided does not seem to demonstrate any significant seasonal pattern or recurring trends. Given the stability of exchange rates, it is challenging to discern any seasonal fluctuations. For a more comprehensive analysis of seasonality, a wider range of exchange rate data, spread over multiple years and seasons, would be required.

    Outliers in Exchange Rates

    The negligible deviations in this dataset make the identification of true outliers difficult. Typically, an outlier would be a significant deviation from the common trend or rate. However, in this dataset, the exchange rate remains almost constant throughout, making it difficult to determine any substantial outliers.

    General Observations

    It's worth noting that this analysis is entirely based on historical exchange rate data and does not take into account other crucial factors that can significantly affect exchange rates, such as geopolitical events, monetary policy changes, and economic indicators. Additionally, while this analysis provides a snapshot of the KMF's exchange rate trend for the specified period, predicting future rates based solely on historical data can be quite challenging, especially without considering broader market context and economic indicators.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The overall trend of the exchange rates in this dataset seems to be relatively stable. The exchange rate initially starts at 0.00298 and rise slightly to 0.00299 before slightly jumping to 0.003 and then dropping back down and maintaining at 0.00299 for the vast majority of the time period. Therefore, there does not seem to be any significant increase or decrease in the exchange rate during this period.

    Regularity and Seasonality

    Due to the stable nature of the KMF exchange rate over the given period, there's no apparent seasonality or recurring patterns in the data provided. The exchange rate is generally constant with slight variations from time to time.

    Notable Outliers

    In the given dataset, there are no strong outliers or instances where the exchange rate deviates significantly from the general trend. The only mild fluctuation observed is the jump from 0.00299 to 0.003, but it quickly returns to the previous level and remains at 0.00299.

    Summary

    In summary, the overall analysis suggests that the KMF exchange rate stays remarkably stable throughout the period covered by the dataset. No discernible seasonal or recurrent pattern is observed, and the rate fluctuates within a very tight range, suggesting a low volatility during the time window provided.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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    Analysis of KMF Exchange Rate Time Series Data

    Upon examining and analyzing the provided dataset which is a time series representation of changes in KMF exchange rates at different timestamps, the following trends, patterns, and observations were seen:

    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    1. For a significant amount of this time period, namely from 2024-02-26 00:00:02 to 2024-02-26 10:10:03, the exchange rate was stable and unchanging at 0.00297. This indicates a period of stability in the market, with no influence of external factors causing any changes.

    2. After this period, the exchange rate rose slightly to 0.00298 and remained constant until the end of the dataset. This minor increase indicates a small level of inflation but is not of significant concern, considering the minimal level of the increase.

    Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    In the given data there is no clear evidence regarding any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates as the changes are quite constant overall. The data does not span across multiple seasons or years to be able to assess any trend or pattern pertaining to different times of the year. Further, intra-day changes appear to be non-existent and daily patterns are minimal as the dataset spans across just a single day.

    Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

    Based on the data provided, there are no major outliers or significant deviations from the overall trend. The change from 0.00297 to 0.00298 is very small and consistent across time after the change. Indeed, it is not enough to be considered as an outlier, given that it subsequently stays constant at the later stages.

    These interpretations are made solely based on the dataset provided without accounting for any specific events, external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, and the release of key financial news and reports.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The given data does not show much significant variation over time, making it a relatively stable trend. The rate oscillates between 0.00294 and 0.00297 most of the time. Nevertheless, a significant jump to 0.00503 is observed on 2024-02-16, which quickly reverts back to the normal range.

    Seasonality in Exchange Rates

    The dataset does not span a sufficiently long period to accurately determine any annual or quarterly seasonality. However, within each day, there seem to be no specific patterns with rates changing based on daily hours. The data predominantly stays within the aforementioned range regardless of the timestamp.

    Notable Outliers

    The most notable outlier in this dataset is the exchange rate recorded on 2024-02-16 at 12 pm where the rate reached 0.00503. This rate is significantly higher than the average of the dataset and falls outside the typical range. Except for this single instance, most of the exchange rates remain within a very close range.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Overall trend of the exchange rates

    Looking at the dataset provided, it's clear that the overall trend of the exchange rates is relatively stable over the given period, with minor increases and decreases. Starting from 0.00295 at the beginning of the period, the exchange rate fluctuates mostly between 0.00295 and 0.00297, exhibiting a slight upward trend over time. This slight upward trend suggests a small but steady increase in the value of the exchange rate over the period considered. The exchange rate has demonstrated a general upward trend between the 19th and 20th of February, stabilizing around the rate of 0.00297 for the coming days.

    2. Seasonality and recurring patterns

    Regarding seasonality, the dataset does not seem to show strong seasonal or recurring patterns at a glance. However, occasional minor fluctuations can be observed in the course of each day. A prominent daily pattern can't be determined from the data given. More analysis with high-frequency data is needed if intraday patterns are to be identified. Furthermore, without taking into account more external factors relating to the larger scale economic trend and cycle, it's challenging to deduce clear seasonality or recurring patterns from this limited range of data.

    3. Outliers in the dataset

    The data range is fairly tight, staying within a small band of 0.00295 and 0.00297. Moreover, there is no individual observation that differs significantly from the rest of the data, indicating the absence of an obvious outlier. Anomaly detection might be more accurate on more extended and more granular datasets. To sum up, based on the current data set, no significant anomalies or outliers have been detected.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The overall trend of the exchange rates within the given time frame seems to remain stable. The rates largely fluctuated between 0.00296 and 0.00297. The start of the time series data on 2024-02-23 00:00:02 had an exchange rate of 0.00296 which remained relatively constant until around 2024-02-23 02:45:02, where it seemingly increased slightly to 0.00297. This rate then remained mostly unchanged till the end of the duration covered in this dataset. A notable exception occurred around 2024-02-23 04:45:02, where there was a slight decrease back to 0.00296, but it then switched back to 0.00297.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Based on the data provided, there are no apparent seasonal changes or recurring patterns in the data set. The rates are fairly constant, with only a slight fluctuation between 0.00296 and 0.00297.

    Outliers

    Given the provided data, there do not appear to be any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the general trend. The data shows continuous and steady exchange rates around 0.00296 and 0.00297 throughout the dataset. While there is a slight deviation from 0.00296 to 0.00297, this change does not qualify as an outlier since the fluctuation is within a defined and very close range.