Sri Lanka Rupee Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates:

Upon analyzing the given data, it can be observed that the exchange rate given in LKR remains almost stable for the entire period. It starts with a rate of 0.0046, shows a very minimal decrease to 0.00459 after the 16th observation, stays the same for an extended period, and then goes back to 0.0046 again after the 187th reading. Towards the end of the provided timestamp, starting from the 361st reading, the rate shows a mild increasing trend, achieving rates of 0.00461, 0.00462 and ends at 0.0046. However, the variations are very minimal and do not signal a significant increasing or decreasing trend overall.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns:

Given the stable nature of the data, the LKR exchange rate does not offer observable seasonal or recurring patterns within the provided timeframe. The exchange rate remains nearly constant and fluctuates very slightly around 0.0046.

Outliers:

There does not appear to be any significant outliers in the given exchange rate data. All values move within a very narrow range between 0.00459 and 0.00462, showing no sharp or unexpected jumps or falls. Therefore, we can conclude that this dataset doesn't seem to contain any classic outliers. However, this does not rule out the need for further statistical tests if we wish to delve deeper into the outlier detection.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Based on the dataset provided, it seems that data analysis would involve examining a continuous time series data set representative of the exchange rate (LKR), and analyzing its characteristics within the period provided. I can conduct this analysis independently from external factors, as requested.

Understanding the Overall Trend

From initial observation of the dataset, it appears that the LKR exchange rate throughout the entire day of April 24, 2024, shows slight fluctuations, but predominantly tends towards stability. Initially, the exchange rate hovers around 0.00457 to 0.00458 from 00:00:02 to around 06:50:02. After this time, we see an increase as it shifts and remains stable at around 0.00459 between 06:50:02 and 20:05:04, at which point it shifts again to 0.0046 and remains consistently at this rate for the rest of the time period until the end of the data set.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Seasonality in a time series data indicates observable, regular, and predictable patterns or cycles that recur every calendar year. However, due to the granularity of the data and the short duration of the time series data (only around a single day), it's hard to identify any strong seasonality or long-term recurring patterns. A larger dataset containing monthly or yearly data might provide insight into seasonal patterns if they exist in the exchange rate.

Outliers

Outliers in a time series data are observations that are significantly dissimilar to the rest of the observations. From the given data, there doesn't seem to be any significant outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the main trend. Because the data presented represents a single day's worth of exchanges, significant anomalies would be unlikely but not impossible. To be able to detect outliers accurately, one might need a longer duration of data.

Keep in mind that this is a rudimentary analysis, and using more advanced statistical methods or machine learning models would yield more in-depth insights and robust conclusions.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

Looking at the dataset, it can be observed that the LKR exchange rate has largely remained stable over the period with minor fluctuations. The exchange rate initially starts at 0.00456 and sees slight changes throughout the period with a range between 0.00455 - 0.00457. There is an increment in the rate around the 01:25:02 timestamp where it touches 0.00457 for the first time, post that it stays constant at 0.00457 for an extended period. Later around 13:10:02, 13:40:02, 14:40:03, and 14:50:02 it drops to 0.00455 but quickly regains to 0.00456. Eventually, as near the end of the period around 20:05:03 we see a surge to 0.00457 which remains till the end of the period.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

With this limited dataset, it's challenging to identify any seasonality pattern. However, hourly analysis shows that the exchange rate tends to slightly dip at around 13:00 hrs before rising back to its original exchange rate post 20:00 hrs, this can be observed but it may or may not be a recurring pattern, it would be advised to observe such behavior across several days to establish it as a pattern. For seasonality, we need data for an extended period (like several years) which can capture annual economic cycles.

Noting Outliers

In context the dataset provided, there are no significant outliers. The rate fluctuations channel between 0.00455 and 0.00457, a relatively narrow range. There may be slight discrepancies at certain times, but those do not stray far from the established pattern. We can conclude that there are no significant outliers in this dataset.

Summary of Last Month

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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Data Analysis

The data runs from 2024-04-22 00:00:02 until 2024-04-22 23:55:02, approximately a 24-hour period.

Overall Trend

1. The overall trend seems to be largely stable. The exchange rate starts at 0.00455 and ends at 0.00456 over this 24-hour period. This suggests a very slight increase over time but not sufficiently significant to denote a clear upward or downward trend. However, this observation would need to be confirmed with more data from other days.

Recurring Patterns (Seasonality)

2. In terms of recurring patterns, it is impossible to accurately identify any seasonality from just one day's worth of data - seasonality tends to occur based on cycles of several days, months, or even years. However, the data does indicate that the exchange rate remained largely constant during this specific day.

Outliers

3. Generally, the exchange rate data remains within the range of 0.00455 and 0.00457 throughout the day, and there are no clear outliers that substantially deviate from this range.

However, one minor point to note is that between 05:35:02 and 06:00:02, the exchange rate dipped slightly to 0.00454, before going back to 0.00455. Similarly, from 21:00:03 onwards, the rate increased slightly to 0.00457, slightly above the usual range. These could be considered as minor fluctuations rather than significant outliers.

Considerations

Note that as requested, this analysis is purely based on the numbers provided, and does not consider the context of major financial news or events, market opening/closing hours, or any other external factors that might impact exchange rates.

Forecast on future rates:

As requested, this analysis does not include any forecasts on future exchange rates.

Summary of Last Week

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Forex Data Analysis: LKR Exchange Rate Over Time

This analysis is based on a time series dataset containing information on the Sri Lankan Rupee (LKR) exchange rates over a specific time period.

1. Overall Trend Analysis

Based on the provided data, it can be observed that there is a very slight upward trend in the value of LKR against the base currency. This small upward trend is mainly noticeable around the end of March and going into April, and it seems to persist overall during the timeline provided. However, it's also worth noting that the exchange rate in this period largely fluctuates within a very tight range, from around 0.00444 to 0.00462, which indicates a relatively stable exchange rate without any drastic rises or falls.

2. Seasonality and Recurring Pattern Analysis

From the provided data, no distinctive seasonality or recurring patterns can be directly identified in the changes of exchange rates. As the data does not appear to follow a specific daily or weekly cycle, it may not exhibit some std form of intraday or weekly seasonality that can be recognized without additional data, such as data covering a yearly period or longer.

3. Outliers and Anomaly Analysis

By analyzing the exchange rate data, there are no clear outliers or anomalies that significantly differ from the general trend. This suggests that there have been no occurrences of extreme volatility in the exchange rate during the time covered by the provided dataset. There's only a slight increase in the exchange rate around April 10th with an exchange rate peaking at around 0.00462, which although it's the highest in this period, it can't be considered a significant outlier given that it's close to the usual fluctuation range.

This analysis is purely based on the provided dataset and excludes the possible impacts of other external factors. Therefore, the results may vary when considering other factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, and the release of key financial news and reports.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Comprehensive Analysis of LKR Exchange Rate Time-Series Data

Based on the dataset of timestamped LKR exchange rates, the following analysis has been conducted:

1. Understanding the Overall Trend

The given period's overall trend depicts a slight decrease in the exchange rate. The rate values range from 0.00461 to 0.00455, which indicates there's a downward movement. However, this decrease isn't particularly dramatic or sudden; it's a marginal decrease over time.

2. Identifying Seasonality Patterns

The dataset does not provide enough information to determine clear seasonality patterns. Moreover, the data appears to be more random or irregular, with the same exchange rate repeating various times at different intervals. More comprehensive data might be required to identify any seasonal (daily or annually) patterns.

3. Noting Outliers

From the dataset, it is challenging to pick out any clear outliers. The values differ subtly, hovering around a similar range throughout the period. Any variations in the exchange rates are marginal and within a close range, suggesting no extreme peaks or troughs that could be considered notable outliers.

Given the close-range hovering of the values, we might say that the rates are relatively stable, with minor decreases over time. However, this analysis is purely quantitative and does not account for various external factors that could significantly influence exchange rates.

For a more accurate analysis, it would be suggested to consider market-related factors such as opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, the release of key financial news, and reports or significant global events. Yet, bearing your request in mind, these haven't been considered in this analysis.

Also, no future rates are projected as part of this analysis given the absence of historic data and specific instruction against such inclusion.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overview of the exchange rate trend

From a brief overview of the give data, it appears that the exchange rates are relatively stable over the provided time period. The rate fluctuates between 0.00454 and 0.00456. It's clear that there are only small fluctuations and no extended period of a substantial increase or decrease.

Seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates

Given the limited variation in the dataset, it's hard to confidently identify any specific recurring patterns or evident seasonality. However, please note that for a more accurate determination of seasonality, a more extended time series dataset may be beneficial as it allows broader trends to become apparent.

Outliers in the exchange rates

Throughout the dataset, there are no apparent outliers. The exchange rate does not deviate considerably from the 0.00454 - 0.00456 range at any given timestamp. Therefore, it's reasonable to conclude that there aren't any substantial shocks or abnormal fluctuations within this data set.

Please remember that analysis conducted here does not include external factors, such as market hours, holidays, financial news, etc., which can also significantly impact the exchange rates in real-world scenarios.