Lek Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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  • Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

After going through the dataset, it is clear that the exchange rates tend to be stable over these hours. Fluctuation in the exchange rate is minimal throughout, staying within the approximate range of 0.01474 and 0.01480, barely a 0.00006 difference. Considering the high frequency of the data sampled every five minutes, this is relatively very stable. These observations indicate that during these times, the exchange rate generally remains stable over the period shown.

Identifying Seasonality in the Exchange Rates

In the given dataset, due to the smaller duration of each epoch (5 minutes) and limited range of sampled data, identifying seasonal patterns becomes a bit more challenging. Seasonality usually reveals itself over longer periods, such as daily, weekly, or yearly cycles. In this case, any discernible changes are more likely to be due to intra-day fluctuations rather than cyclical patterns. However, no clear consistent pattern can be identified within this given dataset.

Locating Significant Outliers

When considering outliers in this dataset, any significant departure from the 0.01474 - 0.01480 range might be considered as such. However, given that the data generally varied very minimally, there are practically no significant outliers in this dataset. The most visible deviation is seen at 2024-05-21 08:05:03, where the exchange rate rose to 0.01480, a minor surge compared to the overall trend but swiftly regressed back to the prior range.

Overall, this time series data of exchange rates showcases high stability with its minor fluctuations, without any clear seasonal patterns or outliers within the presented timeframe.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Upon examining the dataset provided, the general trend of the exchange rate over the period seems to be relatively stable. The value hovers between 0.01473 and 0.01476 throughout, with no drastic jumps or drops recorded. The highest rate recorded is 0.01476, and the lowest is 0.01471. The differences between rates at different timestamps are minute, indicating a fairly steady exchange rate throughout the day.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Regarding seasonality or recurring patterns, due to the dataset's limited scope (just one day of data), discerning any significant seasonality would be challenging. It would require data from several analogous days, weeks, or even months for more conclusive identification of seasonal trends. Nonetheless, there does appear to be minor fluctuations occurring during different times of the day, with slight increases and decreases, hinting at a possible daily pattern of exchange rate changes. Nevertheless, further data would be required to confirm this.

Noting Outliers or Significant Deviations

In the context of the provided dataset, there are no outliers or significant deviations from the expected exchange rate based on the trend. The exchange rate remained remarkably stable throughout the day, with only minor fluctuations in the fourth decimal place. Such a deviation is typical in foreign exchange rates and doesn't signify an aberration.

It's important to note that this analysis does not take into account any external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. These are important determinants of exchange rates and can cause significant changes. Hence, for a comprehensive analysis, such factors should ideally be considered.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Trend Analysis

The timestamp and exchange rate (ALL) data provided shows a slight upward trend over the given period. This is evident as the rates rarely drop below 0.144 and gradually increase towards the 0.147 mark by the end of the period. However, the increases are not significant and largely incremental. Despite the upward trend, the exchange rate largely remains stable, with a slight inclination toward growth.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

In regards to seasonality or recurring patterns, the data appears to lack a clear cyclical pattern. The rates do not show consistent peaks or troughs at regular intervals, which might be expected in the presence of a clear seasonal pattern. However, there is a relative stability, with slight intermittent fluctuations.

Outliers Analysis

There are few distinctive outliers in this dataset where the exchange rate deviates significantly from the average or expected value based on the overall trend. Interestingly most outliers are instances of higher, rather than lower, values. However, these deviations are short-lived and quickly return to rates that align with the overall pattern.

Summary

  • The trend of the exchange rates over the given period tends to be slightly increasing but mainly stable.
  • No clear seasonality or recurring patterns can be observed in this dataset.
  • There is presence of few sporadic outliers where the rates are higher than usual.
It's important to note that while this analysis provides an overview of the historical trend, seasonality, and outliers in the data, it cannot predict future changes in exchange rates due to potential unforeseen factors impacting the rates.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:

Trend

Below is a comprehensive analysis of the time-series data provided. It is based entirely on the historical data provided, without considering any specific event or external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports.

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The data provided shows a minimal fluctuation. The exchange rate starts at a value of 0.01465 and ends similarly at 0.01475, with slight ups and downs observed within this range throughout the period under consideration. This subtle change indicates a relatively stable exchange rate over this period. Although slight increments and decrements are scattered throughout, the overall change in the exchange rate remained within 0.0001, which is not a substantial change in the financial world.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

The data does not show prominent seasonality or recurring patterns. The fluctuations are modest and irregular, without a clear cycle visible within the timeframe of the data provided. From this, we can infer that the exchange rate for this specific period does not have a notable daily or hourly pattern. More extensive data could potentially reveal weekly, monthly, or yearly patterns if such patterns exist.

3. Noting Any Outliers

There doesn't appear to be any significant outliers within the dataset provided. The exchange rates remain within a narrow range, without any significant spikes or drops. All the data points are closely packed, indicating that the exchange rate was relatively stable throughout the period. Therefore, no specific instances stand out where the exchange rate deviates significantly from what would be expected based on the general trend.

In conclusion, the data analysis signifies a stable period for the exchange rate with no apparent seasonality, recurring patterns, or significant outliers. To discover more nuanced insights, a larger dataset, covering a more extended period and additional external factors, could be explored.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Based on the data provided, the exchange rates shown exhibit a significant level of stability over the timeframe given. The rates appear to oscillate between approximately 0.01470 and 0.01479. From an initial value of 0.01477 at the beginning of the period, nominal fluctuations can be observed with the rate marginally trending downwards to 0.01470 before slightly picking back up towards the end of the period to around 0.01475. This suggest a general lack of clear increasing or decreasing long-term trend. Instead, the rates seem to fluctuate around a stable mean.

Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

Regarding seasonality, there seems to be a recurring pattern in the data - there are periods of relative stability, followed by areas of higher volatility. This pattern can be seen through the exchange rate's fluctuations centered around the stable mean value of approximately 0.01475. Although without a defined time pattern, these fluctuations could imply that certain times might be more volatile for exchange rates than others.

Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

Given the low volatility of the exchange rates, outliers are relatively small in magnitude and are seldom observed. One significant instance that can be noted is a minor drop to 0.01472 around the 6:25 timestamp and a near-instant recovery to the familiar exchange rate range soon after. This drop seems to deviate from the generally stable pattern observed throughout the rest of the time frame and thus, could be considered as an outlier.

Additional Conclusion

Given the static nature of the input, no clear upward or downward trend or significant recurring patterns were observed. Therefore, the primary notable feature of this data set is its overall stability. This stability makes it difficult to identify individual events that greatly influenced the exchange rates, aside from minor diversions and corrections. Furthermore, barring the few partly-outer instances, the exchange rates during this period maintained a critical level of consistency and followed a rhythm of minor fluctuations around the mean value.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates.

The overall trend of the exchange rates presented in the dataset can be interpreted by observing the time-wise directionality of the provided rates. In this dataset, the exchange rate has shown a very minor increase from 0.01476 at the start to 0.01477 at the peak. This increment is not significant and the exchange rate has been more or less consistent throughout the dataset. There have been no dramatic fluctuations shown in this dataset.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates.

As there is a very minute fluctuation in the rates, it's hard to deduce any concise pattern or seasonal effect from the given data. Significant patterns or seasonality are usually evident when there's a clear cyclical change or consistent recurrent increments or decrements, but here, the values are mostly stable or with negligible change.

3. Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly

The exchange rates outlined in this dataset are highly consistent without any prominent or significant deviations. Consequently, there don't appear to be any outliers or instances of major variance from the vast majority of the readings. It's always important to bear in mind that the occurrence of outliers can impact the overall analysis and understanding of a dataset, manipulating eventual forecasts and predictions. However, in this instance, the data is exceptionally stable.

Also, it is important to keep in mind external factors like policymaker decisions, important events or financial crises that may drastically affect exchange rates. However, such deep analysis was not requested in this case hence, is not covered.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:

Trend

General Trend Analysis

The given dataset does not contain sufficient information for a definitive conclusion about the overall trend of the exchange rates. Typically, one would use a trend line to make this type of interpretation, but this is not possible given the high frequency of the data points and the fact that we are not given a long span of data. However, upon general inspection, it appears that the value of the exchange rate slightly oscillates over the given period. It starts at 0.01469, drops slightly, increases a bit, before ending at 0.01476. This suggests a minuscule growth pattern within the short time period provided.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

From the data provided, no clear seasonality or recurrent pattern can be observed. The exchange rates have small, minor fluctuations occurring throughout the given dataset which don't provide a clear pattern. Longer periods with more data points are usually needed to assess seasonality effectively. Various machine learning tools could also be used to detect complex patterns within larger datasets.

Outliers Detection

An outlier in this exchange rate dataset would be any significant shift within a short period. In the given dataset, there are no noticeable outliers as the exchange rate values stay within a small range. An instance where the value reached 0.01476 from 0.01475 could have been an outlier in this scenario, but given the small value of change, it's not considered an outlier. Typically, outliers are identified using statistical methods, which verify if any data points deviate significantly from the average.

Disclaimer

This analysis is very basic due to the high frequency but short span of data, and didn't consider any external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. For a more comprehensive analysis, one would need larger datasets covering longer periods and potential use of complex methodologies such as machine learning algorithms. Furthermore, as per the instructions, no future forecasts have been made based on this data analysis.

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