Tenge Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

The data provided shows that the exchange rate has mostly remained stable at around 0.00309 for a long period. After some time, there appears to be slight decrease to around 0.00307. However, the variability is minimal, and we might interpret this as a stable trend with a slight decrease.

Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns

Based on the data provided, the exchange rate seems to operate on a constant level without any noticeable seasonal or recurring patterns. The value mostly stuck at a level around 0.00309 and 0.00307.

Noting any outliers

There are no significant outliers noticeable in this dataset. The value of the exchange rate remains within a very narrow range (0.00307 to 0.00309). It indicates that the exchange rate is quite stable with no major spikes or dips.

Conclusion

Overall, the exchange rate of KZT demonstrated in this dataset appears very stable over the period with a slight decreasing tendency. No significant trend, seasonality, or outliers were observed, which indicates a stable financial environment during this particular timeframe.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

Observing the provided data shows a very stable rate hovering around the 0.00309 - 0.00310 exchange rate. It is important to note that the time scope that the data covers is 24 hours, which limits the analysis as longer periods are needed to establish a definitive trend in financial data. Nevertheless, within the given time frame, there is no strong trend either upwards or downwards. The exchange rate remains relatively stable.

Identifying Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

With a 24-hour data, it is challenging to identify any seasonality or recurring patterns in the KZT exchange rate. Seasonality trends generally requires longer time periods, such as annual or quarterly data. There are no immediate discernible patterns that repeat throughout the dataset within the 24-hour period.

Observing Outliers

Given the small fluctuations in the exchange rate, there are no apparent outliers in this dataset. The exchange rate is notably stable, sticking to a very tight range between 0.00309 and 0.00310. These rates only changed once, to a slightly lower 0.00308, between approximately 06:50:02 to 07:30:03. This change was not significantly different from the maintained rate and returned back to 0.00309 afterwards.

Conclusion

In summary, the KZT exchange rate is generally stable throughout the 24-hour time series data provided. There are no discernible trends upward or downward, no considerable seasonal or recurring patterns, and no notable outliers within this presented time period. This reflects a relatively stable exchange rate for KZT within this short period. Extending this analysis over a longer time period could potentially provide further insight into the behavior of this exchange rate.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend

Based on the given time-series data, the exchange rate of KZT seems relatively stable throughout the duration, from a maximum of 0.00309 to a minimum of 0.00307. However, it must be noted that it does slightly increase from the initial figure of 0.00308 at 2024-04-23 00:00:02 up to 0.00309 from around 2024-04-23 06:25:02. It retains this level with few fluctuations till the end.

Seasonality & Recurring Patterns

Exchange rates, in their nature, are susceptible to several factors like macroeconomic data, geopolitical events, and more. However, regarding the dataset provided which is limited to one day only, it's challenging to identify any seasonality or consistent patterns. The data does not show any significant fluctuations that might indicate daily peak hours or a recurring event influencing the exchange rate.

Outliers

The dataset does not show any significant outliers, which would be noticeable as sudden, unusual spikes or drops in the exchange rate. The value dipped to 0.00307 for a short window at 2024-04-23 02:35:02, but then returned promptly to 0.00308, which is within the normal range observed throughout the day. This doesn't significantly deviate from the observed trend.

Please note that a more complete analysis would require data over a longer time frame and additional information about events that could impact the exchange rate.

Summary of Last Month

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analysis of the Provided Dataset

The given dataset is a time-series data capturing the exchange rates of KZT (Kazakhstan Tenge) at different timestamps ranging from 2024-04-22 00:00:02 to 2024-04-22 23:55:02. After pouring over the dataset, here is a comprehensive analysis:

1. Overall Trend

The overall trend of the exchange rates in the dataset appears to be quite stable. Majorly, the rate stays at 0.00308, save for some instances when it slightly drops to 0.00307. These exchanges rates do not exhibit a pronounced increasing or decreasing trend within the given timestamp.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

There isn't distinct seasonality or recurring pattern in the dataset within the provided period. The only detectable pattern in this dataset is the stable nature of the rate. The exchange rate frequently stays at 0.00308, with the occasional slight drop to 0.00307. However, these fluctuations don't seem to be influenced by any recurring events within the given day.

3. Outliers

Regarding outliers, as the rate variates between 0.00307 and 0.00308 only, there doesn't appear to be noticeable outliers - instances where the exchange rate significantly deviates from the general rates within the provided timestamps.

In conclusion, the overall trend of KZT exchange rates within the given timestamps demonstrates a stable trend with very minimal fluctuations, and no significant outliers or recurring patterns.

Summary of Last Week

• Opening:
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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Data provided is limited to a short time span from 22nd March to 19th April 2024. Ideally, for ideal and better understanding of trend and seasonality, we would require data spanning over multiple years. Nonetheless, let's discuss our analysis in three main parts: overall trend, seasonality and outliers.

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

During the observed period, the exchange rate of KZT has generally shown a slight increasing trend. Starting from 0.00299 at the beginning of the period, the exchange rate has increased to 0.00308 until the last reported data point. This overall trend therefore signifies a gradual improvement in the value of KZT over this period. However, it should be noted that the margin of increase is very less, staying within the range of 0.0029 and 0.0031.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

Given the relatively short observation period of roughly a month, it is somewhat difficult to infer any strong seasonality or recurring patterns. Nevertheless, we can observe that there is some degree of daily fluctuation in the values. However, without a larger dataset spanning multiple years, it is challenging to make any general inferences about annual or monthly seasonality. Ideally, for any significant patterns to emerge - especially on a monthly or yearly basis - we would need several years of data.

3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

The dataset does not show any notable outliers. There are no instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the generally observed range between 0.0029 and 0.0031. It's noteworthy that while there are minor fluctuations from day-to-day, the top-to-bottom swing in exchange rate values remained quite tight throughout the period. The largest jump or fall in the exchange rate on any given day was small enough to not be considered an outlier against the established trend.

In conclusion, the data indicates a slight upward trend in the exchange rate of KZT over the observed period but does not provide any strong evidence of seasonality or significant outliers affecting the currency's value. However, the conclusions can be improved with more comprehensive data over a longer period.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The overall trend of the KZT exchange rate from the data provided shows slight fluctuations but generally stable throughout. The rate oscillates subtly between a low of 0.00306 and a high of 0.00308 over the period. There is no clear or steady incline or decline trend identifiable from the data provided. Rather, it appears the exchange rate is at a steady state with minor increases and decreases within the 0.00306 to 0.00308 range.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Regarding seasonality or any recurring patterns, the dataset does not provide substantial information to establish a clear cycle or seasonal pattern in the exchange rate fluctuations. The minor changes in the rate are dispersed across the timestamps without any apparent time-dependent pattern. However, without data for a longer period, it would be difficult to ascertain any day-to-day, weekly, or monthly cyclic patterns accurately.

3. Outliers in the Exchange Rates

From the provided data, there aren't any noticeable outliers, or instances where the exchange rates deviate significantly from the apparent trend. All reported exchange rates are within the 0.00306 to 0.00308 range, without any significant spikes or drops. Consequently, from this dataset, we can't highlight any point as an outlier based on the common statistical definition of outliers being data points that fall significantly outside the majority of the other values.

In conclusion, the KZT exchange rate over the period represented in the dataset was relatively stable, without apparent seasonal or recurring patterns from the current dataset, and no significant outliers were observed. However, to give a more accurate and comprehensive analysis, a longer or more detailed time series data may be required.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Based on the provided dataset, the KZT exchange rate Data shows minimal volatility throughout the timestamps. The currency exchange rate seems to be steady at 0.00307 for a long period, after which there is a slightly observable fall to 0.00306 and then it gradually rises to 0.00309. Towards the end of the timeline, the rate decreases slightly to 0.00308 and then remains constant.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Looking at the data set, there does not seem to be a strong indicator of seasonality or recurring patterns. The exchange rate appears to be consistent within these timestamps with slight fluctuations of a thousandths of a point difference which are negligible. However, more data points covering longer periods could bring out potential cyclic patterns not observable in a short time series data.

Outliers Analysis

Throughout the data set, no significant outliers are evident. The exchange rates remain relatively stable and any changes are minor, and followed by a return to prior levels. This suggests that the exchange rate at play here experiences minimal fluctuations, therefore aberrations are negligible or insignificant.

Please note that these results are based on the data points of this specific period and might vary if data from different periods are analysed.

Key Factors Consideration

As per your instruction, the analysis doesn't consider the external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. The analysis is a simplified interpretation of the data at a surface level to understand the fluctuations in the exchange rates.