New Taiwan Dollar Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    From a review of the provided dataset, it is observed that the exchange rate of TWD has exhibited a very slight increasing trend. There is a minutely increase from the initial rate of 0.04287 to a peak rate of 0.04300 towards the middle of the observed period, followed by a slight decrease and then becoming relatively steady towards the end of the period. This upward and downward trend pattern is also noticeable with recurring fluctuations.

    Seasonality or Recurring Pattern

    Focusing on seasonality or recurring patterns, it appears that the data isn't reflecting strong daily seasonality. This might be due to the stability of the financial systems. Nevertheless, a more specific trend or pattern might be found by analyzing a larger dataset or exploring patterns over a more extended timeframe.

    Notable Outliers

    In terms of outliers, there is no explicit sight of them in the data set. All variations in exchange rate values appear to be very in line with the overall trend, and no sizable drops or surges were observed in this data set. Since the fluctuations appear reasonable and no value massively diverges from the rest, it's safe to say that the dataset doesn't have significant outliers.

    Conclusion:

    Based on the provided dataset, the trend analysis concluded that the rates are relatively stable, with a slight tendency towards a minimal increase in the middle of the dataset, followed by a decrease to the initial value. The dataset does not exhibit strong daily seasonality and does not contain significant outliers, therefore showcasing a strong stability in the analyzed period.

    Please note that this analysis did not consider external factors such as weekends, holidays, market opening/closing hours, or significant financial news and reports. Considering these factors in the future might provide additional insights.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The overall trend of the exchange rates seems slightly volatile with minor fluctuations during the observed period. However, it can be noted that the exchange rate starts at 0.0428 at the start of the period and ends at 0.04286, indicating a slight increase over the entire timespan.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Upon visual inspection of the data, there doesn't appear to be a clear recurring or seasonal pattern. The exchange rate varies in a relatively tight range (between 0.04279 and 0.04296), without showing an evident pattern or regular peaks and troughs that would suggest seasonality.

    3. Outliers

    Regarding outliers in the dataset, there doesn't appear to be any significant deviations from the overall observed range. The exchange rates provided all lie within a very minute range and so it is fair to assume that there aren't any significant outliers in this dataset. This suggests that the market was relatively stable during this period without any major events leading to unexpected rate swings.

    Extra observations

    It is possible that the granularity of data provided (roughly every 5 minutes) may be too fine to readily identify larger trend patterns or outliers. A comprehensive analysis could include examining the data at a coarser granularity, such as hourly or daily averages, to better identify potential trends, patterns, or abnormalities.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The provided dataset presents time-series data for TWD exchange rate ranging from 0.0427 to 0.04289 dated from the timestamp of 2024-02-26 00:00:02 to 2024-02-26 23:55:02. Careful analysis of the data shows a minimal fluctuation in the exchange rate. The exchange rates remain more or less stable over the period shown, with some gradual decreases and increases, but no dramatic or extreme changes. The increment and decrement in the exchange rate are in thousandths, therefore we can say that the exchange rates are relatively stable with minor fluctuations.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in Exchange Rates

    Given the single day's worth of data provided, it's challenging to identify any significant seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates. Seasonality or recurring patterns often require data that covers a longer timeframe, such as months or years, which allows for the identification of consistent patterns that repeat over regular intervals. Therefore, based on the given data with timestamps from a single day, asserting about daily recurring patterns would be premature.

    3. Outliers

    An outlier in exchange rates is typically characterized by a significant departure from the previous and following rates. An analysis of the provided data does not indicate the presence of any such outliers. Every change in the exchange rate, whether an increase or decrease, is of a very minute and thus is consistent with the general trend of the data. Hence, it's safe to conclude that there are no significant outliers in this dataset based on the information provided.

    Please note that due to the limited dataset (only one day's data), the analysis might not be extremely thorough and is subject to the available data.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    An initial look at the dataset indicates that the exchange rate of TWD shows slight fluctuations within a certain range from 2024-01-26 to 2024-02-23. The highest exchange rate observed is 0.04319, and the lowest is 0.04265. However, no distinct upward or downward trend can be observed in the exchange rate throughout this period. It is fair to say that the exchange rate between TWD throughout this period remains fairly stable with minor fluctuations.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    Analysis of this dataset does not clearly indicate any specific recurring patterns or seasonality in the exchange rate changes. The fluctuations in the rate do not seem to follow a consistent pattern and can be attributed to a variety of factors beyond the scope of the dataset—a comprehensive forecast would require additional data, including market conditions, monetary policy decisions, and economic indicators.

    3. Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

    No apparent outliers have been identified in this dataset, as the range within which the exchange rates fluctuate is quite narrow. Specifically, all values within these timestamps vary within the tight range of 0.04265 and 0.04319. This indicates a stable TWD exchange rate, and there are no instances where the exchange rate significantly deviates from the rest.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    Upon analyzing the given dataset on the TWD exchange rates, we can see minimal albeit visible variation in the rates during the recorded period. The dataset begins with TWD exchange rate at 0.04293 and ends at 0.04272 which seems like a slight decline, however, the rates have had a bit of fluctuation in between.

    Identifying Any Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    The data doesn't exhibit a clear seasonal or recurring pattern and seems rather volatile and random during the time period analyzed. Any assertion on recurring patterns would require more detailed statistical tests and over a bigger set of data that includes more than just a few weeks worth of information.

    Noting Any Outliers

    As per the given data, it's not clear if there are any significant outliers. All values within the range seem to be normal fluctuations of an exchange rate since they do not significantly exceed or fall below the average rate. However, whether or not these are actual outliers would require further statistical analysis.

    External Factors

    Since the given instruction does not require consideration of specific external events affecting the exchange rates such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, we are not examining those parameters in this analysis.

    Future Predictions

    Given the nature of this task, we will not be delivering any forecast advice on how these trends may apply to future rates.

    Please note that exchange rates can fluctify widely due to a vast number of variables such as country's economy, interest rates, inflation rates etc.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    The dataset comprises of time-stamped exchange rates for the Taiwanese Dollar (TWD). Overall, the dataset is showing a mild increasing trend during the period observed. This is deduced from the fact that the exchange rate starts at approximately 0.04264 and ends around 0.04273. However, it's worth mentioning that this increase rate isn't very pronounced. A large part of the data range has the same or very similar values suggesting a high stability within the observed timeframe.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns

    Given that the differences in the exchange rates are very small, the data doesn't appear to contain any obvious seasonality or recurring patterns. For a better evaluation of seasonality, we might need a dataset with a broader timescale (e.g. with data across multiple years) or with a more substantial rate fluctuations.

    3. Noting any outliers

    From the current dataset, we didn't identify any significant outliers or extreme fluctuations; the range of variation in the exchange rate is very narrow. The values always remain between approx. 0.04259 and 0.04278. This lack of significant outliers also suggests a stable market situation during the examined timeframe.

    It's also important to consider that data presented are within very close range therefore it wouldn't be safe to base any significant financial decision on this limited data. A broader dataset (time-wise and value-wise) would give us more certain results.