Hryvnia Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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    1. Analysis of Overall Trend in UAH Exchange Rates

    From the provided data, it's clear that the overall trend from the starting timestamp (2024-02-29 00:00:02) to the ending timestamp (2024-02-29 23:55:02) has a gentle upward shift. The trend starts with a value of exchange rate standing at 0.03562 UAH and closes on a value of 0.03565 UAH. Thus, we can infer that the exchange rate of UAH moderately increases over the day. A continued observation over a longer period might be necessary to determine if this upward trend holds over an extended period or if it's an anomaly.

    2. Identification of Seasonality Patterns

    In a general sense, this data doesn't appear to show any clear seasonality or cyclical patterns. There are no observable recurring times of the dataset where the exchange rates consistently increase or decrease for the day. However, without data covering a series of days or months, it's challenging to accurately comment on any seasonality effects in this context.

    3. Detection of Outliers

    As per the provided data, there seems to be no significant outliers, meaning that there are no instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the norm. The rate throughout the day is within a small range, specifically between 0.03560 and 0.03574, and there aren't any leaps or drops during the observed period that would denote a substantial anomaly. Notwithstanding, deeper statistical analysis like standard deviation or z-score might be carried out to ascertain this observation.

    Please remember that this is a very general analysis and the insights generated may vary based on additional data or external factors not considered in this analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    An initial look at the data hints that the exchange rates (UAH) during this period have mostly remained in a tight range of 0.03533 – 0.03568, indicating a moderately stable trend. More specifically, the rates started from 0.03533 and ended at the same level of 0.03562, denoting a slight positive increment over the period. However, noticeable shifts in rates were observed where the rate increased slightly to the highest level of 0.03568 and the lowest level of 0.03533.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    As for the recurring patterns in this data, it should be noted that though there are slight movements in the exchange rates, they are minimal and scattered throughout the sample set, making it challenging to highlight a distinct recurring pattern. At the same time, it's also important to keep in mind that financial data, including exchange rates, are influenced by a multitude of factors, many of which are dynamic and non-recurring. A more in-depth statistical analysis would be required to conclusively identify any seasonality or recurring patterns in this dataset.

    3. Outliers in the Dataset

    In the context of outliers, the variability in exchange rates within this dataset is fairly minimal, suggesting that extreme values or outliers are either non-existent or very limited. The slight increase seen around the value 0.03568 could be considered an outlier. However, it does not seriously deviate from the average level, thus making its effect minimal.

    It's also critical to remember that our identification of outliers is context-specific, considering the overall stability of the trends and not considering any external market factors. Considering these factors might lead to a different interpretation of the outliers.

Summary of Yesterday

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Summary of Last Month

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    The overall trend of the exchange rate between the Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH) and the target currency shows a slight increase throughout the given dataset. Notable oscillations can be observed but the data seems to be slightly trending upwards.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    With regards to seasonality, the data demonstrates fluctuation in a relatively stable range, suggesting that there may be a component of intraday seasonality or cyclic changes within the dataset. However, without more context or additional data, it is challenging to confirm meaningful seasonality or other recurring patterns in the data with certainty.

    Identification of Outliers

    Based on the provided dataset, there are no significant outliers that jump out. The exchange rate values all fall within a very close range of each other. However, it's crucial to note that this assessment is based purely on observation of the given data and a statistical analysis may reveal more nuanced outliers or discrepancies.

    Summary

    In summary, the provided dataset does not present significant variations or extreme values. This time-series primarily reflects a slight upward trend in the exchange rate of UAH. The absence of pronounced outliers and the stability of values suggest that this is a relatively calm period for the currency pair in question.

    It's important to note that the given dataset covers a relatively small amount of time, and therefore any trends, seasonal components, or outliers identified may be less meaningful than if a larger dataset was analyzed.

Summary of Last Week

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    Overall trend of the Exchange Rates

    From the provided dataset, the overall trend of the UAH exchange rate is somewhat subtle but relatively stable. It starts at approximately 0.03565 on the 26th of January, 2024, and ends at roughly 0.03527 some four weeks later, on the 23rd of February, 2024. This illustrates a minimal negative trend, implying that the UAH slightly depreciated against the currency in question during this period.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Based on the data provided, it's difficult to deduce a clear seasonal trend or recurring pattern in the UAH exchange rate. Because the dataset spans less than a month, extraction of significant seasonal effects is challenging. Seasonality usually occurs over a full year (or quarterly, monthly), and it's inappropriate to extrapolate such patterns from a dataset of this duration. However, if we had data over multiple years (or at least a complete year), it would be easier to identify recurring trends.

    Significant Outliers in the Dataset

    Given the relatively stable nature of the exchange rate in this dataset, any significant swings or peaks could be considered as outliers. Still, the identification of these outliers would require a more detailed statistical approach, including examining deviations from the median, mean rates or using concepts like the Interquartile Range (IQR). Moreover, the identification of an outlier is often influenced by the context, where 'significant change' should be sufficient enough to affect the overall trend or indicate possible external impacts.

    Another approach to detecting outliers could be through plotting the data and visually inspecting for any distinctive spikes. Nonetheless, the identification of outliers purely based on these methods should be considered with caution because 'abnormal' fluctuations in financial markets can still be within the realm of regular volatilities.

Summary of Yesterday

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    Understanding the Overall Trend in the Exchange Rates

    The dataset presents time-series data of the UAH exchange rates between 19th February 2024 and 23rd February 2024. The exchange rates during this period seem to fluctuate, indicating some level of volatility in the foreign exchange market. At the commencement of the examined period on the 19th of February 2024, the exchange rate opened at 0.0354 and had a slight decrease over time, closing at 0.03494 by 23rd February 2024. Therefore, the overall trend in the exchange rates during the period seems to be a minor decline.

    Identifying Recurring Patterns or Seasonality

    After closely examining the data, it appears that no specific recurring pattern or strong seasonality emerges from this dataset within such a short period. The exchange rate shows continuous fluctuations throughout the period, facing rises and drops at different times, but not in a distinct or recurring pattern. Attempting to identify seasonality in this short period would require more data spanning over consistent intervals, such as monthly or yearly data. This would allow us to see if the exchange rate patterns repeats over a specific time. Nevertheless, the fluctuations still indicates that the rates are affected by continuous market activities.

    Noting Outliers in the Dataset

    An outlier in this context would refer to an exchange rate that drastically differs from the rates around the same time period. Looking closely at the data, no single point significantly deviates from the overall behaviour of the data. Therefore, it's safe to state that there are no noteworthy outliers in this dataset during this period. Please note that the absence of outliers indicates that there was no unexpected or unusual event that influenced the foreign exchange market during this period.

    Please note that while an exchange rate's trend, seasonality, and outliers are critical points for consideration in financial analysis, other factors such as economic indicators, market opening/closing hours, geopolitical events, financial news, and reports can significantly impact exchange rates. This analysis purely focuses on the trend, pattern, and outliers in the given exchange rates without any consideration of external factors.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Upon analysis of the given time-series financial data on uah exchange rate, the following insights were gathered:

    1. Understanding the Overall Trend:

    From a broad perspective, it can be noted that there is a slight upward trend. Initially, from 2024-02-23 00:00:02 to 2024-02-23 06:15:02, the exchange rate remained predominantly stable around 0.03494-0.03495. At 2024-02-23 06:20:02, there is a significant upward shift reaching 0.03521 at 2024-02-23 06:25:02. Moving forward, the exchange rate appears to be fluctuating slightly around 0.0352 - 0.0353.

    2. Identifying Seasonality Patterns:

    Given the limited data and its small range of fluctuation, no clear seasonal or recurring pattern can be identified in this dataset. Though, noticeably, the exchange rate remains fairly steady with minute variations for long periods, before making a significant leap and establishing a new steady state. This pattern seems to repeat on a very broad scale within the dataset.

    3. Outliers within the Data:

    There are significant points where the exchange rate varies from the observable new steady state pattern. For instance, jump at 2024-02-23 06:20:02 from 0.03494 to 0.03521 looks like an outlier as it is a sharp rise compared to the slow, steady increase characteristic of the rest of the data. However, considering the overall minimal range of fluctuation and the lack of external factors to be considered, these points may not necessarily be regarded as outliers.

    Given these findings, the uah exchange rate tends to show a slow, steady increase over time, with long periods of stability broken by significant leaps upwards.