Denar Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    After interpreting and analyzing the provided dataset, here are the conclusions:

    1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    From the data, it can be inferred that the exchange rate has been mostly stable with minor fluctuations over time. The lowest exchange rate value observed was 0.02379, and the highest was 0.02393. Most of the time, the exchange rate hovered around 0.02385 to 0.02387. The minor fluctuations do not indicate a clear trend of increase or decrease over this period.

    2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Given the limited time frame (one day), it is challenging to infer any seasonality or recurring patterns from the dataset. However, there is a pattern observed between 02:20:01 and 04:50:02, 14:45:02 and 21:25:02, demonstrating a minor increase in change, while the periods from 05:15:02 till 06:20:01 and after 22:35:02 show a bit of dip. These intervals could show possible recurring daily patterns, but it requires more data to conclude with confidence.

    3. Outliers

    The data seems relatively consistent with minor fluctuations that can be expected in exchange rate data. There are no significant outliers or instances where the exchange rate significantly diverts from the overall trend. The fluctuations range within 0.00014 MKD which is not a significant diversion from the mean.

    From the above analysis, it's clear that analyzing a larger dataset spanning multiple weeks or months could give us better insights into the overall trend, pattern or seasonality in the data, and could help in identifying any outliers more firmly.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Comprehensive Analysis of MKD Dataset

    The given dataset represents the changes in the MKD exchange rate over a time period marked by specific timestamps. Comprehensive analysis of this dataset includes assessment of overall trend, seasonality, and anomalies. For the purpose of this discussion, external factors like market boom/bust cycles, holidays, and financial news will not be taken into consideration.

    1. Understanding the Overall Trend

    Upon initial examination of the exchange rates, it appears that the MKD rate, for the most part, remains relatively stable within a narrow range. On the date specified (February 28, 2024), it started at an initial value of 0.02383, and concluded with an ending value at 0.02385. There is a slight increase, although it may not be significant enough to conclude a definitive upward trend given the miniscule difference in these values. Therefore, without considering other unseen factors, it would be reasonable to state that the MKD remained relatively stable throughout the observed day.

    2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns in a time series data usually requires an observation period over several cycles (like multiple years/months) for discerning the presence of such events. As the dataset provided is only for a single day, it does not give ample scope for identifying seasonality or recurring patterns. However, there doesn't appear to be any consistent cyclic changes in the exchange rate across the 24 hour period provided, indicating a lack of intraday seasonality within this day. Future analysis with larger datasets across extended periods may reveal more insights.

    3. Notable Outliers

    Outliers are instances in the dataset which significantly differ from the regular trend or pattern. The data points in this dataset are fairly consistent with minor fluctuations, with the MKD exchange rate varying within a very small range. That being said, there are certain outliers observed, like the minor decline to a value of 0.02379 around the timestamp 01:55:02, which however gets restored to the normal value after certain intervals. We do see similar minor deviations at various points in the day, but nothing that signifies a major anomaly or a 'black swan' event.

    In summary, the trend appears to be largely stable with no significant seasonality and minor detectable fluctuations. A probable hypothesis could be that trade in currencies marked by this dataset is done in a highly liquid, efficient market where price discovery is relatively stable, which keeps the values within a narrow range.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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    Overall trend in Exchange Rates

    The time series data shows a gradually increasing trend in exchange rates from 0.02372 to 0.02381 during the period. It indicates an appreciating trend for the MKD currency against the benchmark currency. This trend suggests a strengthening MKD over the period covered.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    In analysing the data, there doesn't appear to be a clear cut seasonal pattern in the exchange rates. The rates appear to fluctuate within a narrow range throughout the period with no discernible recurring pattern. It suggests that the variations in the exchange rates do not strongly adhere to any given time series periodicity.

    Outliers

    An outlier analysis on this data doesn't reveal significant deviations from the established range of exchange rates. The currency stays within a close proximity of its initial value, suggesting a stable trajectory with no obvious outliers (i.e., instances where the exchange rate is significantly different from the overall trend).

    Remember that this analysis is purely based on the provided time series data and does not consider external factors such as economic indicators, global market trends, or geopolitical events which could potentially have significant impacts on currency exchange rates.

    Conclusion

    In conclusion, the trend analysis shows an appreciating trend for MKD over the period, with no significant seasonal patterns or outliers in the exchange rates. However, it's critical to understand that external factors beyond this data can greatly influence currency value, and as such, this analysis is limited in scope. Always approach financial decisions with comprehensive consideration of all relevant factors and, if necessary, expert advice.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    This is a general analysis of the provided time-series data of exchange rates. A close review of these exchange rates shows various patterns that are explained below:

    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    The overall trend of the exchange rates seems to be fairly stable, with a slight downward trend over the period covered in the dataset. There's no consistent influx or decline throughout the provided data. The exchange rates started at approximately 0.0237 at the beginning of the dataset and ended at approximately 0.02372, with minimal fluctuations throughout.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns

    Regarding seasonality, in this dataset, it's somewhat challenging to derive any clear seasonality or consistent recurring patterns. The figures mostly hover between 0.0235 and 0.0238 throughout the dataset. The exchange rates demonstrate slight fluctuations during the observed times, but these changes don't unequivocally suggest any distinct cyclical or seasonal pattern that happens regularly, indicating the exchange rates could potentially be influenced by many other varying factors.

    3. Noting any outliers

    There are no striking outliers in the given data. Any variations within the data are minor enough to fit within the general stability of the exchange rates and can be considered standard market volatility as opposed to significant anomalies. As such, based purely on this dataset, it's not obvious that there are instances where the exchange rate varies considerably from the predicted norm based on the observed trend.

    Please note, this analysis does not consider external market factors such as market activities during opening/closing hours, weekends/public holidays, and the release of key financial reports, which could provide additional insights and influence the rates significantly.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    At an initial glance, the overall trend of the exchange rates, as represented by the MKD data, appears to be generally stable for the time period covered by your dataset. The time series data ranging from 0.02356 to 0.02374 indicates minor variations in the exchange rates throughout the periods, with minor fluctuations that suggest an overall stability in the rates.

    2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Upon examination, it's not particularly evident that there is any strong seasonality or recurring patterns in the data due to the considerably minor variations of exchange rates throughout. There's a lack of consistent rise or fall patterns discernible from the data provided. More information or a more extended dataset may be necessary to better determine any potential seasonality.

    3. Noting any Outliers

    No notable outliers stand out from the observed data. The range of the exchange rates between 0.02356 and 0.02374 are relatively close, and there's no observable instance where the exchange rate differs significantly from its surrounding data points. The data appears to consistently fall within this narrow range without any significant peaks or troughs indicative of an outlier.

    It's crucial to note, however, that while these findings are based on the provided data, external factors such as market dynamics, economic indicators, and geopolitical events may still greatly impact the movement of these exchange rates in real life situations.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Based on the time-stamped MKD exchange rate data provided, here are the findings of the comprehensive analysis:

    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The overall trend of MKD exchange rates shows a slight increase. The rate starts from 0.02369, has a minimum value of 0.02365, reaches a maximum value of 0.02374, and ends at 0.02372. In comparison with the starting point, we can see a small increase in the rates.

    2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Looking at the exchange rate changes, it's noticeable that the fluctuations are relatively small and frequent but there is no clear pattern indicating a seasonal trend. The changes appear rather random than being periodical. However, it's possible that a more detailed seasonality analysis (e.g., by hour of the day or by day of the week) across a longer time frame may reveal certain patterns.

    3. Identifying Outliers

    Throughout the data provided, no significant outliers were observed. The exchange rates remain within a narrow range between the maximum and minimum values, denoting a stable market without significant unexpected fluctuations or anomalies.