Denar Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Upon observation of the provided dataset, the MKD exchange rates are seen to fluctuate between 0.02379 and 0.02386 throughout the day. However, the changes in the exchange rate do not seem drastic. The rate primarily remains within a very narrow range, indicating a stable currency exchange rate. There is a slight increase around the 2:15 timestamp where the rate reaches its maximum of 0.02386 and minor decreases near the 3:05 and the end timestamps reaching a minimum of 0.02379, but overall the trend appears to be quite stable with minor fluctuations.

2. Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns

Since the data only spans over a single day, it is difficult to track any observable seasonality or pattern related to weeks, months, or seasons within a year. However, when scrutinizing intraday patterns, it is observable that the rates decline slightly after the peak at 2:15, and the lowest points are reached around 3:05 and towards the end of the dataset. While these patterns require further data collection for validation, they could point to daily cyclical patterns in the exchange rates.

3. Noting outliers

Given the stability of the currency's exchange rate and minor range of fluctuation, there don't appear to be significant outliers in this dataset. While minor peaks and troughs can be observed at certain timestamps such as 2:15 and 3:05, they don't differ significantly from the mean to be considered as outliers.

This dataset's trend and patterns align with the nature of currency exchange rates that tend to fluctuate throughout the day but usually within a rather consistent range. They are influenced by market supply and demand, and while they can be affected by a variety of factors, within a stable economy, dramatic shifts within a short period such as a day are not common.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend

The overall trend of the MKD exchange rate presented in the given dataset seems to remain relatively stable. The rate varies between 0.02375 - 0.02384 MKD over the provided period. Any increases or decreases appear to be minor and not indicative of a significant upward or downward trend.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Based on the data provided, no clear sign of any rhythmic seasonality or recurring patterns can be discerned. That is, there aren't any regular or predictable changes in the MKD exchange rate that repeat over a one-day cycle. The slight changes in rate do not follow any discernible pattern.

Outliers

Given that the MKD exchange rate only fluctuates slightly over the given timespan, no anomalies or outliers can be observed. All rates lie close to the median of 0.02382 MKD, with minimal spikes or drops, signifying a lack of significant outliers.

Consideration of External Factors

The analysis did not consider the impact of external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends, holidays, or the release of financial news and reports. As was stated in the request, the interpretation was solely made based on the numerical time series data given and did not account for any external context.

Forecasts

Per the original request, no forecasts have been provided for future rates. The analysis is purely descriptive and based on the time period data provided.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. General Trend Analysis

After analyzing the time-series data provided, it can be observed that the MKD exchange rates tend to exhibit a relatively stable trend throughout the given time frame. There are small fluctuations in the rates, oscillating between a minimum of 0.02367 and a maximum of 0.02380. However, these fluctuations do not suggest any clear or consistent pattern of increasing or decreasing rates. Instead, the data seems to maintain a consistency in staying within the aforementioned range.

2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, the current data provided is insufficient to confidently detect any. The data covers a span of only one day, but typically, patterns of this type are recognized over larger periods, such as weekly or monthly intervals. Bearing this in mind, there isn't an opportunity to detect any obvious daily patterns in this data set. Furthermore, the data appears to be quite random with no discernible repetitive shifts that might indicate a seasonal or recurring pattern.

3. Identification of Outliers

Examining the data for potential outliers, it's important to note that in the context of financial markets, an outlier would typically be an exchange rate that is significantly different than the rates immediately before and after it. In this dataset, no such instances were found. All changes in the MKD exchange rates were minimal, and no single rate differed significantly from its neighbouring rates. Therefore, it is reasonable to conclude that there are no outliers in the given dataset.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

General Trend Analysis

Glancing at the provided data, it appears that the MKD exchange rate stays relatively steady over this period. The rate fluctuates between a narrow band of approximately 0.0237 and 0.0238, differing only in the 4th decimal point which signifies minor volatility. It starts at 0.02376, reaching a minimum value of 0.0237 and a maximum of 0.02379 before ending at a similar level where it started with 0.02372, therefore, no significant trend of overall increase or decrease is discernible from this data.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Regarding the search for seasonality or recurring patterns, due to the high frequency time series data with 5-minute intervals and small variations, more sophisticated time series analysis techniques would be needed for confident identification of these patterns which is beyond scope of this examination. However, visually, there is no readily identifiable recurring pattern in the data that signifies regular seasonal effects during this period.

Identifying Outliers

In this data set, an 'outlier' is considered as a data point that is significantly different from the others. However, the values of the exchange rate remain closely packed within a very thin range. Therefore, there don't appear to be any obvious outliers or radical differences in the exchange rate compared to the majority of data points. This is indicative of a stable market condition for this particular currency pair during this period.

Conclusion

The MKD exchange rate appears to be generally stable over the period covered by this dataset, with minor fluctuations suggesting a balanced supply and demand within this market for these particular hours. There are no clear seasonal/intra-day patterns or discernible outliers which in itself is an interesting finding as it indicates stability during this period.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Analysis of Overall Trend

The data points provided span from March 22, 2024 to April 19, 2024, showing the changes in the MKD exchange rate over this period. The initial MKD rate on March 22 is 0.02392, and the final rate on April 19 is 0.02377. The exchange rate appears to have decreased slightly over this time period. However, this decrease is quite minor. Overall, there seems to be relative stability in exchange rates, with minor fluctuations up and down over the month-long period. It's important to note that more data would be needed to confirm this evidence of trend.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

While it would be beneficial to have data spanning at least a full year to more accurately determine seasonality, some patterns can still be gleaned from this month-long data. Upon careful review, there do not seem to be any clear seasonal or recurrent patterns based on the data provided. The changes in the exchange rates appear to be irregular and do not follow any obvious cyclical pattern. This suggests that the MKD exchange rates during this period might be influenced more by irregular or random factors rather than fixed seasonal effects.

3. Outliers in Exchange Rates

Identifying outliers requires calculating statistical parameters like the mean and standard deviation, and this goes beyond simply reading the time-series data. However, eyeballing the given data, there are no significant fluctuations that could be considered as outliers. Most of the changes are very minor, in the range of 0.00001-0.00010. Consequently, based on the given set of data and considering the subtle variations, there seems to be no evident outliers. Any sudden or vast changes in the rate, exceeding this typical range of variation, could potentially be considered as an outlier but such an event is not recorded in this data.

Remember, this analysis is derived from a month-long data from March to April of 2024. To obtain a more accurate and comprehensive picture of the trend, seasonality and outliers, data spanning over a longer time period, preferably multiple years, is required.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The provided dataset depicts changes in MKD exchange rates over time, with data points collected every hour. After thoroughly examining the given data, we can note that there are minute fluctuations in the exchange rates. However, these minor shifts do not suggest any significant increase, decrease, or stabilization over the provided time period. The rate seems to oscillate roughly between 0.02374 and 0.02389, which implies a rather mild variability.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns in Exchange Rates

Given the short time span covered by this dataset (a few days), it's challenging to discern any seasonality or recurring patterns in the MKD exchange rate with certainty. Seasonal trends generally emerge over prolonged periods and may not be apparent during brief intervals. However, a slightly closer look may suggest a certain level of day-time volatility in the rates. This requires further analysis over an extended span to confirm.

Outliers and Significant Deviations

The dataset doesn't appear to have any substantial outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the overall observed variability. All the values seem to fall within a reasonably tight range, and no rate deviates enough to constitute an outlier based on the given data. Furthermore, the absence of significant deviations implies that, at least during the duration under observation, the exchange rates have been relatively stable.

Please note: This analysis is based purely on the given time-series data of MKD exchange rates. No external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports have been considered.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The time series data for the exchange rates, which is in MKD, demonstrates a relatively stable rate over the period under review. The exchange rate begins from roughly 0.02379 and sees minute increases to around 0.02385 before falling back down slightly. There are slight fluctuations, but the rates largely remain within the range of 0.02375 to 0.02385. Thus, no significant rise or decline in the exchange rates is observed during this period, implying a stable trend.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Regarding cyclical patterns or seasonality in the data, the limited range of fluctuation and the short timeframe makes it challenging to identify any definitive recurring patterns. There is a slight increase and decrease in the exchange rate within the period, but it does not significantly vary or show any distinct patterns that could indicate seasonality.

Outliers in Exchange Rates

Throughout the provided time series data, no significant outliers are observed. The data fluctuates within a reasonably tight range, and there are no instances where the exchange rate deviates significantly from the trend. Hence, no outliers are identified within the given time frame and data.

It should be noted that the absence of any identified seasonality, trending, or outliers might be due to a number of factors, such as the short timeframe covered by the data and the stable nature of the MKD’s exchange rate during this period. To establish more definitive patterns, trends, or outliers, a longer timeframe and possibly a larger data set could be needed.