Bahraini Dinar Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

The dataset consists of time-series data, with the timestamp and the corresponding BHD exchange rate. Here's a comprehensive analysis based on the available information:

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

From an overall perspective, the exchange rate experiences minor fluctuations throughout the day. The initial value is 3.63172, and it shows a slight decrease, reaching its lowest value of 3.62192 by the end of the day. The fluctuations are generally mild, indicating a somewhat steady market condition for this particular day. However, to confirm a solid trend, it would be beneficial to have more extended data available for analysis.

Seasonality or Recurring patterns

From the dataset, no significant recurring patterns, such as daily or hourly seasonality, are observed within the scope of this single day's data. The exchange rate changes slightly but consistently throughout different periods of the day, and there is no visible recurring pattern or seasonality. A longer timeframe might exhibit weekly or monthly patterns.

Identification of Outliers

Analysis of the provided dataset does not indicate the presence of any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate changes significantly from the usual trend of adjustments. Most changes in the rate are small, implying a lower degree of volatility for this particular day. However, a broader dataset, extending across multiple market conditions, may present a more definitive view of possible outliers.

In conclusion, while there are minor fluctuations in the BHD exchange rate over this day, the overall trend slightly decreases. Importantly, this analysis is based solely on the provided data for a specific day, and a more comprehensive analysis would require a dataset encompassing a wider timeframe.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

From analyzing the provided dataset, we can observe that the exchange rates appear to be fluctuating within a fairly consistent range, remaining generally stable over the entire period. However, we can see minor increments in the latter stages of the day but overall, the rates seem to be circling around a similar value with no significant and consistent upward or downward trends being present.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, we cannot identify any specific hourly, daily, or other seasonal trends in the data without more context such as the day of the week or the month of the year. However, upon visual inspection, the data does not seem to exhibit any clear cyclical or repetitive patterns, suggesting that the exchange rate changes are likely driven by more irregular or random factors.

3. Identification of Outliers

The exchange rate values provided in the dataset do not appear to have any significant outliers. Most of the data points seem to fall within a consistent range, with only minor discrepancies that could be expected as part of the natural volatility of exchange rates. There are no data points that stand out as being significantly higher or lower than the rest, suggesting a reasonable level of consistency in the exchange rates over the period.

In conclusion, the exchange rates represented in the dataset are generally stable with minor fluctuations. No identifiable seasonality or recurring patterns are evident, and the values are fairly consistent without any significant outliers. This suggests a fairly stable and consistent exchange rate environment for the BHD during the period represented by the dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Upon examining the data, it is noticeable that the exchange rate of BHD shows minor fluctuations over the course of the day. The BHD value varies within a narrow range around 3.63-3.64 from the start until about 9:05, after which it sees a gradual decline until the end of the day, ending slightly lower at around 3.62-3.63. This indicates only a minor downward trend in the exchange rate over the observed period.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

As for seasonality and recurring patterns, within the given one day of minute-by-minute data, it is tough to identify a significant seasonal pattern. However, it is interesting to note a sort of intra-day pattern: the BHD value shows relative stability during the early hours (until around 9:05), changing slightly within a narrow band, followed by a moderate downward movement for the rest of the day. Therefore, it seems like there could be a recurring pattern of relative stability followed by downward movement within the days themselves.

Outliers Identification

The provided data does not seem to contain any obvious outliers, i.e., the exchange rate does not show any volatile spikes or drops at specific times. The changes in the BHD exchange rate throughout the day are quite smooth and gradual, which suggests that the market conditions were relatively stable during the considered period, without any significant unexpected events influencing the currency's value.

Please note that this analysis is based on the provided data only and does not take into account any additional external factors, such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, and the release of key financial news or reports.

Summary of Last Month

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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

The exchange rates over the given timespan show a general trend of slight volatility, meaning there are a series of small ups and downs. Starting from 3.64275, the exchange rate seems to fluctuate in a narrow range around 3.63 and 3.64. However, it is important to note that there are no dramatic increases or decreases over the whole period shown, and it ends quite close to where it began, at 3.63426. Therefore, overall, the exchange rates can be said to remain fairly stable during this period.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

From an initial high-level review of the data, it seems to recur a cyclical pattern. Typically, this can be a rise and fall pattern which repeats after a specific time period. In this data set, such patterns aren't very obvious and may be challenging to identify due to the high-level fluctuations in the data. The potential influences behind these recurring fluctuations could be complex and need intensive computation approach to identify. I recommend using advanced time series analysis, such as ARIMA model, to explore the seasonality comprehensively.

Noting Outliers

There are small fluctuations in exchange rates throughout the period, but no substantial outliers or extreme values are observed directly from the list. However, exhaustive scan using statistical tools to detect outliers may produce different conclusion. For example, any rate values outside of the 3 standard deviations from the mean could be considered as an outlier.

Note: External factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports can significantly affect exchange rates, but these factors aren't considered in this analysis as requested.

Summary of Last Week

• Opening:
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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Trend Analysis

After a careful analysis of the given data, it is observed that the overall trend of the BHD exchange rate from 2024-03-22 to 2024-04-19 appears to fluctuate, however, with a slight upward inclination. Beginning at a value of 3.59857 on 2024-03-22, the exchange rate undergoes various increases and decreases but reaches 3.64518 by the end of 2024-04-19.

Seasonality Analysis

In terms of identifiable seasonality or recurring patterns, without specific knowledge of the days of the week that these dates correspond to (i.e., whether they're weekdays or weekends), it's a bit complex. Further, it makes it even more difficult given that this is a one-month dataset. However, within this data, certain patterns can be observed. For instance, the value seems to often decrease before increasing again, indicating potential cyclical behavior although it's happening in short time range. Longer time range data is essential to make a strong conclusion on seasonality aspect.

Outliers

On first sight, on 2024-04-10 there is a visible sharp increase in exchange rates. This day may have an outlier as the exchange rate rises up to 3.62787 from 3.59644 – a significant jump within a 2-hour interval. These spikes continue until 2024-04-12 after which the values seem to stabilize and then slightly decrease. Although these changes might fit the general cycle of fluctuation we are observing, the suddenness of the increase suggests an outlier event of some kind.

Overall, a detailed trend analysis, investigation into potential seasonality, and outlier identification have been conducted. To carry out a more precise and reliable analysis, more extensive data would be beneficial. Furthermore, knowledge of external factors can significantly enhance the context and accuracy of the analysis, despite being excluded from this particular analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

An examination of your provided data reveals a mild fluctuation in the exchange rates over time, with values ranging between 3.63432 and 3.67122. The data does not show a clear increasing or decreasing trend over the entire period. This can be attributed to the continuous adaptation of currency rates to market conditions.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

The nature of the data, coupled with the brief period it spans (few days), makes it challenging to establish any seasonal or recurring patterns. However, a closer look at the data could reveal daily patterns such as higher volatility during certain hours, though this would need to be verified with more data.

3. Noting Any Outliers

Considering the overall fluctuation range, it appears that the exchange rate mostly stays within a particular limit and there are no significant spikes or falls in the rate that would constitute an outlier. Any noticeable deviations might be a result of specific market conditions, high volume trades, or reactions to short-term economic events, which are not considered as per your requirement.

Additional Observations

• The highest value recorded for the BHD exchange rate was 3.67122.
• The lowest value recorded for the BHD exchange rate was 3.63432.
• Over the provided period, the exchange rate fluctuates in a somewhat narrow range. It points to either a stable market environment or a lack of major economic events during this period.

Please note that this analysis is entirely based on the provided data and does not take into account any external data or market events. For a more accurate and thorough interpretation, other factors like market conditions, economic indicators, and geopolitical events also need to be considered.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

Upon analyzing the dataset, the trend of BHD exchange rate seems to be fluctuating. It's observed that the rates have gradually fluctuated with a slight upward and downward trend across different timeframes. The smallest exchange rate seen was around 3.63609 while the highest shot up to 3.65473. Although the movement isn't drastic, it signifies the volatile nature of the BHD exchange rates over the data's period.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

On a closer look at the BHD exchange rate over the timestamp, there is no clear indication of a recurring pattern or seasonality within the provided dataset. It's important to bear in mind that exchange rates are affected by a wide range of factors including interest rates, economic performance, and global events that aren't captured within this data. Therefore, it isn't possible to deduce a predictable pattern or seasonality trend based on this dataset. However, it might be worth exploring larger datasets and apply time series analysis especially when one has access to a dataset with a larger timeframe.

Noting Any Outliers

From the given dataset, there don't appear to be any extreme outliers, as in rates that would be unexpectedly high or low based on the overall trend of the data. However, there are notable fluctuation around the data points with 3.65001, 3.65073, 3.65131 and 3.65473 being the consistently topmost rates observed. While these are higher than the majority of the data, they're not significantly extreme as to be considered true outliers. These instances could simply indicate times when the exchange rate was particularly high due to market conditions at those specific times.