Bahraini Dinar Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    There are a total of 227 data points in the time series from February 29, 2024, at 00:00:02, to February 29, 2024, at 23:55:02. The range of the BHD exchange rates over this period is from 3.59341 to 3.60726. The minimum exchange rate found was 3.59341, while the maximum exchange rate was 3.60726. The overall trend indicates slight fluctuations but the rate largely remains the same, starting from 3.60172 at the beginning of the period and ending at 3.60005 by the end of the period. This conclusion is backed up by the fact that the difference between the highest exchange rate and the lowest is quite small.

    2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Given that the time series data is restricted to a single date, identifying genuine seasonality or recurring long-term patterns is challenging. However, some patterns can be observed on this particular day. Looking at the intra-day data, there doesn't appear to be a clear repeated pattern throughout the day. The rate of the BHD seems to vacillate without a predictable rhythm. For example, there are periods of both increase and decrease observed throughout the day, with no clear repeating patterns. However, to detect more concrete patterns or seasonality, it would be necessary to analyze more extended periods or larger datasets that cover weekly, monthly, yearly cycles.

    3. Outliers Detection

    Detecting outliers in this dataset would require a more in-depth statistical analysis, potentially involving techniques such as the calculation of Z-scores or the use of interquartile ranges (IQRs). However, given the range of exchange rates we have (3.59341 - 3.60726) and the distribution of rates throughout the day, there do not appear to be significant outliers, at least from a visual inspection. The differences between the rates and the times at which they occur follow a seemingly normal distribution. Again, a more robust outlier detection would require a more extensive statistical analysis and potentially more data.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Your provided data represents a time series data of exchange rates (BHD). The timestamps begin at 2024-02-28 00:00:02 and end at 2024-02-28 23:55:02. Here is a comprehensive analysis of the same:

    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates:

    Overall, the exchange rate has shown an increasing trend throughout the observed timestamp. Initially, the rate begins at 3.59411 and ends at 3.601, showing a rise from the start till the end. Notably, the increase is not linear and has multiple fluctuations throughout the timestamps. However, the general trend leans towards an increase.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns:

    Upon analyzing the data, there seems to be no obvious seasonality or recurring patterns. The exchange rates show random fluctuations and do not seem to follow a fixed cycle that could signal a seasonal pattern. However, in-depth statistical analysis may be needed to identify any hidden seasonality or cycles.

    3. Outliers and notable fluctuations:

    The data does not seem to have any significant outliers or extreme values. Most changes in the exchange rate from one timestamp to the next are small. However, there are points where minor spikes occur, representing notable short-term fluctuations, but these do not differ significantly from the overall movement and thus, are not considered outliers.

    Note: Even though we have identified some elements from the overview of your data, it's important to remember that for more in-depth understanding and extraction of potential recurring patterns, outliers and correlations, advanced statistical analysis or machine learning models could be better applied to your needs.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Trend Analysis

    From the data provided, the overall trend appears to be generally stable with small fluctuations. The initial BHD exchange rate started at 3.58164 and ended at 3.58238, indicating a slight increase in the rate over the given time period.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    It's difficult to identify clear seasonality trends or recurring patterns from this dataset since it only goes over roughly 1 day period. To properly assess for seasonality or recurring hourly, weekly, or monthly patterns, we would need data that spans over longer time period.

    Outliers Detection

    Regarding outliers, those are usually detected by applying statistical measurements. A usual definition of an outlier could be data point that falls outside of 1.5 times of an interquartile range above the 3rd quartile and below the 1st quartile. In the given dataset for BHD exchange rate, it varies between a minimum of 3.58164 and a maximum of 3.59042. However, without performing a concrete statistical analysis, it's not possible to precisely identify the outliers in this dataset.

    Please note, these analysis are provided based solely on the provided dataset and don't consider external factors affecting the exchange rate.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    The dataset provided comprises of timestamps and corresponding exchange rates in BHD. We will perform a comprehensive analysis of the dataset and answer the primary questions: (1) Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates (2) Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns (3) Spotting any outliers.

    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    The exchange rates don't show a clear increasing or decreasing overall trend. They fluctuate over time, with a range of approximately 3.54376 - 3.60467. The exchange rates seem to be distributed randomly within this range.

    Identifying Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    At a glance, it's not immediately clear whether there's a seasonal or recurring pattern in the exchange rates. To get a better idea of these patterns, it would be beneficial to visualize the data or use techniques such as autocorrelation plots, which could help identify patterns that aren't immediately visible from the raw data. Unfortunately, from the provided data alone, it's not possible to draw any conclusions about seasonality or recurring patterns.

    Spotting Outliers

    A more detailed statistical analysis could identify outliers. An outlier would be a value significantly different from the others. For instance, exchange rates below 3.54376 or above 3.60467 could be considered outliers based on the provided set. However, it should be noted that exchange rates are influenced by many real-world factors, and it might not be accurate to consider a significant deviation as an 'outlier' without understanding the reason behind it.

    Note: This analysis is based on the provided dataset. It doesn't consider external factors influencing exchange rates like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. As per the provided instructions, this analysis does not generate any forecasts for future rates.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Overall Trend in Exchange Rates

    The overall trend of the exchange rates appears to be mostly stable. There are minor fluctuations in the exchange rates, but no significantly large increase or decrease can be observed over the given period. Therefore, the general trend of the exchange rates can be considered relatively flat. The maximum rate recorded is 3.59126 and the minimum rate is 3.56887. There appears to be a slight inclination towards higher values near the end of the period, but it's not substantial enough to denote a major uptrend or downtrend.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns in Exchange Rates

    Upon reviewing the data, there doesn't seem to be a clear seasonality or recurring pattern in the exchange rates. The rates tend to fluctuate somewhat throughout the given period but do not show a repeatable pattern which could be associated with a specific time or event.

    Significant Outliers in Exchange Rates

    No substantial outliers have been identified in the data. In general, the exchange rates remain within a rather limited range. The highest outliers seem to be around the rate of 3.59126 and the lowest is at 3.56887. However, these values do not differ significantly from the overall observed range of exchange rates and are therefore only minor outliers. No instances where the exchange rate deviating considerably from the general trend or expected values have been noticed.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Overall Trend

    The overall trend seems to suggest a slight increase in exchange rates from 3.57804 on 2024-02-23 00:00:02 to 3.583 on 2024-02-23 14:55:01. Despite minor fluctuations, the value shows an uphill trend over the period.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Upon analyzing the data, it's difficult to ascertain any clear seasonality or recurring patterns within this short timeframe independent of external factors. This level of granularity might require a more extended period to identify any seasonal elements, such as daily or weekly cycles, impacting the rates.

    Outliers

    • There is a significant dip seen at point 3.57539 on 2024-02-23 02:05:02.
    • There is a relatively large spike at point 3.58545 at 2024-02-23 10:20:03.
    These points can be considered as significant outliers as they deviate significantly from the expected increasing trend based on the given data.

    Conclusion

    In conclusion, while there is a minor trend of increase observed in the given period for the BHD exchange rate, no clear pattern or seasonality could be discerned within this brief time range. However, few outliers were identified, which denote significant deviations from the trend. The analysis does not take into account external influencing factors, which may greatly sway the exchange rates like market news and financial reports.