Quetzal Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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    Analysis of GTQ Exchange Rates

    The comprehensive analysis of your dataset involves examining the overall trend of GTQ exchange rates, recurrent seasonality patterns, and possible outliers. The results of the analysis are as follows:

    1. Identifying The Overall Trend of Exchange Rates:

    The GTQ exchange rates have shown some fluctuation over the period observed. The rates start from about 0.17416 and end around 0.17367 which indicates a mild decreasing trend. However, the rates mostly fluctuate between 0.1743 and 0.1734. Therefore, while there is a mild decrease over time, the rates have predominantly remained quite stable.

    2. Recognizing Seasonality or Recurrent Patterns:

    As for recurrent patterns, it's hard to precisely identify any seasonality based on the provided dataset, since it only covers a single day. Furthermore, without extra contextual data like weekdays, weekends, and holidays, it's complicated to pinpoint threads of seasonality in such a short span. However, frequent minor fluctuations can be seen throughout the dataset, implying that exchange rates can shift frequently throughout the day.

    3. Noting Outliers or Unexpected Instances:

    In terms of outliers, there appear to be some positions where the GTQ exchange rate differs notably from the general trend. For instance, the distinct drop to 0.17305 around 06:20 and the sharp rise to 0.1743 around 02:15 could be considered outliers. However, the general trend of the data sees frequent such minor spikes and drops throughout the single day, thereby making the identification of true outliers a bit difficult.

    Please note that all these interpretations were made on the data provided exclusively. They do not account for events such as market opening/closing hours, holidays, or the release of substantial financial news and reports which may cause the exchange rate to shift.

    It's important to keep in mind that a single day of data may not predict long-term patterns or trends reliably. Consequently, this analysis serves as a basic expression of the exchange rates changes in the scope of one day.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    Based on the data provided, the GTQ exchange rate mostly seems to increase during the specific period, albeit with small increments. It starts at around 0.1733 and by the end of the dataset, it's at around 0.17412. However, it is also important to note that there is also a evident degree of fluctuation in the exchange rate throughout the course.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    In terms of recurring patterns or seasonality, the GTQ exchange rates tend to remain somewhat stable in short durations and then exhibit slight hikes. The rates seem to undergo changes in mostly regular intervals, implying a possible certain degree of seasonality. However, to firmly confirm any seasonal pattern, these changes and their timings should ideally be compared to known recurring events or epidoses in the financial world that might affect exchange rates.

    Notable Outliers

    Regarding outliers, the dataset does not appear to have significant instances where the exchange rate dramatically deviates from the other values. There appears to be no extreme values or sudden jumps/drops in the exchange rate in the data. Nonetheless, it's important to always stay alert to potential key financial events that may cause unexpected fluctuations.

    Conclusion

    Overall, the data reflects a relatively steady increase in the GTQ exchange rate over the course of this time period, with slight volatility possibly indicating the presence of some seasonal or recurring patterns. No significant outliers were identified in this dataset. It's important to note, however, in the world of exchange rates, many external influences can cause rates to vary, including economic indicators, geopolitical events, and market sentiment.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The dataset provided records the GTQ exchange rate over a period of a day in 5-minute intervals. After analyzing the dataset, it is observed that the GTQ exchange rate has a mild fluctuation throughout the day. The exchange rate ranges approximately between 0.17272 and 0.17326. Even though there are minute fluctuations, the exchange rate somewhat remains stable at around 0.1729 for most of the day. There isn't any substantial increasing or decreasing trend over this single day.

    Identification of Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Due to the dataset encompassing only one standard day, it's challenging to determine seasonal or recurring patterns with certainty. Nevertheless, in the given day, one could notice a series of moderate fluctuations in the exchange rate within specific time intervals, but no particular recurring pattern is evident. Typically, to detect recurring patterns in exchange rates, longer periods of data spanning weeks, months, or years are needed.

    Identification of Outliers

    Within this single day scope, no significant outliers were recognized in this exchange data. Most values revolve closely around the average rate, and no exchange value appears to stand out from the rest significantly. However, it is essential to note that the identification of outliers can highly depend on the larger context and time frame, which isn't available here.

    In conclusion, a comprehensive analysis of longer time series data - spanning at least a few weeks or months would provide deeper and more accurate insights into the patterns, trends, and outliers of the GTQ exchange rate.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis:

    From a brief look at the dataset, the GTQ exchange rate has shown fluctuations throughout the period reflected. The dataset ranges from a minimum value of 0.17086 to a maximum of 0.17400, indicating some level of volatility during this period. However, without applying advanced statistical techniques such as regression analysis or time-series decomposition, we can't definitively indicate a consistent trend upwards or downwards. This emphasizes the floating nature of currency exchange rates, which might be dependent on various intrinsic and extrinsic economic factors.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns:

    Upon examining the dataset, it's challenging to spot any clear seasonality or recurring patterns. Typically, to determine such patterns, we would need to examine the data over many cycles, typically years, to observe if the value reoccurs at specific periods. It's crucial to note that often daily or weekly seasonality might not be evident in exchange rates data due to the heavy influence of numerous real-time factors such as market conditions, geopolitical events, and economic reports.

    Outliers Analysis:

    In terms of identifying outliers, it’s evident that the values generally tend to fluctuate within a certain range. Any significant change outside the range of 0.17086 to 0.17400 would be considered an outlier. However, in the dataset presented, the exchange rates do not appear to deviate significantly to be classified as outliers. To definitively state the presence of outliers, a more detailed statistical analysis involving techniques such as standard deviation or the Interquartile Range (IQR) would be required.

    In conclusion, based purely on a quick examination of the data provided, the GTQ exchange rates show a level of volatility but do not indicate a definitive trend or pattern in the fluctuations. Detailed statistical analysis would provide further insights into the nature of these exchange rate changes.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    Upon detailed observation, it appears that the exchange rates for GTQ are generally fluctuating within a very close range. It oscillates between approximately 0.172 and 0.173 GTQ for most of the dataset with a slight increase recognizable particularly in February 20th and 21st, hinting at a short-term trend.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    One recurrent pattern identifiable in the data is the seemingly random short-lived spikes in exchange rates recorded during certain hours. Consistently, it can be observed that the exchange rate often jumps slightly higher during certain time slots throughout the dataset and drops back down at a subsequent timestamp. This could indicate that market activities during these particular hours potentially influence the exchange rate during those windows, although a more exhaustive analysis would be required to be more conclusive. It should be noted, however, there is no identifiable periodic seasonality, most likely due to the smaller time frame of the dataset.

    3. Outliers and Significant Deviations

    There are no clear outliers in this dataset. The rate changes over time are very gradual and are within the expected range. This suggests that the GTQ exchange rate remained relatively stable during this period. The most significant deviation observable lies between February 21st and February 22nd when a noticeable drop in value is followed by a subsequent rebound.

    Note: Identifying outliers in time-series data can often be subjective, depending on the scale we're using. Some might say that the small fluctuations are outliers considering how stable the rate is otherwise, but for financial time-series data like this, such small fluctuations are quite typical.

    4. Consideration of External Factors

    While the analysis done thus far does not consider external factors such as market hours, holidays, or events which can have significant impacts on financial markets, the consistency of the data suggests that during the covered period, such events didn't play a major role in creating fluctuations or clear irregularities in the dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    The overall trend of the exchange rate depicted in the dataset shows a relatively stable pattern. Within the total period, GTQ exchange rates started at 0.17196 and ended at a slightly higher value of 0.17275. The exchange rate saw both fluctuations (increases and decreases) within a narrow range, suggesting that the rate remained stable, albeit with small volatility.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    During the period reflected in the dataset, there doesn't appear to be a pronounced seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates. The changes seem to fluctuate randomly within a tight range without a clear pattern repeating at discernible intervals. Longer datasets might be needed to identify any possible patterns of seasonality accurately.

    Outliers Analysis

    There are few instances where the exchange rate appears to differ significantly from the overall stable pattern. Specifically, at 2024-02-23 06:20:02, there was a surge in the exchange rate from 0.17195 to 0.17246, which can be considered as an outlier given the relative stability of the rate throughout the dataset. Similarly, the rate increased from 0.17251 to 0.17269 at 2024-02-23 09:15:03 can also be regarded as a slight outlier. However, it's essential to note that these 'outliers' are within a minor range, and might not be significant given the overall stability of the exchange rates.

    Ultimately, given the nature of the dataset and the exchange rate's inherent volatility, a more comprehensive dataset might be necessary for a more in-depth analysis, particularly in terms of seasonality and identifying significant outliers.