Gibraltar Pound Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    After conducting a thorough analysis of the dataset provided, the overall trend of the exchange rate seems to be fluctuating to some extent. The exchange rate is starting from a value of 1.7195 and ending at 1.71435 which means there is a moderate downward trend in the exchange rate over the observed time period. Nonetheless, the rate baskets within a relatively small range which implies a degree of stability despite the fluctuations.

    Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    Taking into consideration the provided time-series financial data, no clear recurring patterns or seasonality can be identified in the exchange rates. The data appears to fluctuate with no certain pattern discernible. This might be due to many factors such as the short timeframe provided, exchange rate volatility and various other economic factors not included in the dataset. The understanding and identification of such patterns would require a longer set of time series data and likely data from additional external factors.

    Noting any outliers

    An outlier in this dataset would be a sudden and significant spike or decline in the exchange rate that does not appear to align with the general trend. Nonetheless, upon analyzing the dataset provided, there do not seem to be any striking outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the trend. Should you be interested in a more statistical approach for this matter, a further analysis can be performed with the inclusion of statistical measurements such as standard deviations, but it is not performed here as requested.

    Please note, my analysis does not take into consideration external factors due to that explicit request. Also, this analysis does not include forecasting of future rates.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    The data provided is time-stamped from 2024-02-28 00:00:02 to 2024-02-28 23:55:02, over a single day. Observing the GIP exchange rates throughout the day, it is noticed that the GIP started at 1.71941, and ended at 1.71916. Although there were fluctuations throughout the day, the general trend of the exchange rates seems to be reasonably stable within this 24-hour period.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    With the data given, it may be somewhat difficult to definitively pinpoint any seasonality or recurring patterns. This is due to the relatively short timeframe of a single day. Typically, seasonality and recurring patterns might be more identifiable during a longer timeframe, such as a yearly quarter, multiple quarters, or even a year. However, by closely observing the data, it can be noticed that there was an increase in the GIP rate during the early hours (01:55:02 to 03:35:02) and another in the later hours (13:20:03 to 14:55:03), suggesting possible daily trends.

    Outliers in the Exchange Rates

    Outliers can be defined as data points that are significantly different from the other observations. Looking at the GIP rates in this dataset, there are no obvious outliers. Nevertheless, the significant drop from 1.72279 to 1.71938 near the end of the timeframe (20:50:03 to 21:00:01) may need further investigation. It's important to keep in mind that such outliers could be the result of multiple factors such as abrupt changes in the market or financial news that were not included in the data analysis.

    Conclusion

    These are preliminary observations based on the dataset of one day only. For a comprehensive analysis that includes seasonality and prediction, it is recommended to use more data over a longer period. Different statistical and predictive models can provide deeper insight with more data. Any single day's fluctuations may not represent the underlying pattern or trend accurately.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Looking at the data, the overall trend of the GIP exchange rates has a slight increasing trend. The exchange rate started at around 1.711 on February 26, 2024, and ended at 1.7122 at the end of the day. The exchange rate reached the highest point of around 1.7134 midway through the day before having a slight decline. However, the rates remain generally stable throughout the period with frequent minor fluctuations.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates

    It's a bit challenging to identify any seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates looking solely at one day's amount of time-series data. For a thorough analysis of this sort, it is advisable to review the data over a longer period (weeks, months, seasons, etc.). Still, there appears to be a slight increase in GIP exchange rates around the halfway point of the day, with the rates experiencing a minor decrease towards the end of the day.

    3. Noting any outliers

    Identifying specific outliers in the dataset without an explicit definition of what constitutes an outlier can be tricky. However, the GIP exchange rate does appear to remain consistent, without any significant, unexpected spikes or drops. It would be best to visualize this dataset for more accurate detection of outliers. Still, based on the provided data, no significant anomalies or outliers can be observed, as all changes in the exchange rates seem gradual and within a close range.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis of the Exchange Rate Dataset

    The dataset provided contains time series data of GIP exchange rates from January 26, 2024, to February 23, 2024. This analysis is purely based on the dataset at hand and doesn't involve external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. As per the requirement, no forecast of future rates is made. The goal of this analysis is to understand the overall trend, identify any seasonality, recurring patterns, and outliers.

    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    On evaluating the dataset, it can be seen that the exchange rate of GIP has been largely volatile over this period. The exchange rate started at 1.71063 on January 26, 2024, and ended at 1.70732 on February 23, 2024. Thus, there was a minor decrease in the exchange rate over this duration. However, within this period, the rates exhibited considerable fluctuations rather than exhibiting a clear steady increasing or decreasing trend.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    There seems to be no clear seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates based on the provided data. The exchange rates fluctuate frequently and do not appear to follow a specific pattern or cycle within this short time frame. The lack of seasonality could be attributable to the myriad factors affecting exchange rates and the complex interplay between them. However, without long-term data available, this conclusion is preliminary and would require additional data for confirmation.

    Outliers in the Exchange Rate

    In the given dataset, there are no noticeable outliers or instances where the exchange rate significantly deviates from the general trend. The exchange rates exhibit normal market fluctuations and no extreme values are observed that would merit classification as outliers. It is important to note that without a comprehensive understanding of all the factors that influence the exchange rates, strictly defining an 'outlier' can be challenging.

    In conclusion, the exchange rate data for the specified period shows minor decline overall with normal market volatility and no noticeable recurring patterns or outliers. For a more nuanced understanding and identification of patterns and outliers, it may be beneficial to analyze a larger and more diverse dataset and potentially incorporate external influencing factors.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    Based on the dataset provided, it can be observed that the exchange rates show a mild upward trend over the period. Starting from a rate of 1.69747, the data ends at a higher value of 1.70732 suggesting an overall increase. However it's also important to note that this increase is not steady or linear, it involves many fluctuations with some periods of decline as well.

    2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    As for seasonality, the dataset is not large enough to discern any clear season-based patterns. Although there are multiple data entries for different hours of the day, we have data only for a few days, and therefore making conclusions about monthly or yearly seasonal patterns based on this sample would be unreliable. However, an observable pattern is the frequent fluctuations of rates, suggesting that exchange rates could be heavily influenced by the many dynamic factors in currency markets.

    3. Outliers In the Exchange Rates

    Looking at the range of exchange rates, any values lying significantly outside the main observed range - such as under 1.695 or over 1.71, might be considered as outliers. Though, based on the provided data, any variations or outliers present cannot be attributed to any discernible factors from the data directly. They could be due to unforeseen or unaccounted factors impacting the market at those specific times. Bearing this in mind, outlier detection is context-sensitive, and what might be considered an outlier in one dataset could be considered normal in another.

    Also, note that without considering external influence related factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, this analysis is based purely on the provided numbers and their temporal distribution alone.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    From the information that was provided, I observed a general increase in the exchange rate over the time period. The rate began at 1.70483 then decreased a bit until around February 23, 02:30 where it started steadily increasing until around February 23, 10:20 reaching a value of 1.70923. After this peak, it decreased marginally until around the end of the dataset where it remained stable in the range of the 1.707 and 1.708 figures.

    Pattern & Seasonality Identification

    Given this is intraday exchange rate data, it is hard to establish any clear seasonality as that usually requires more extended periods (e.g months, years). However, from the provided data, there seems to be some daily fluctuations i.e., some degree of oscillation in the dataset pointing to some cyclical behaviors that could perhaps be attributed to the opening and closing times of different exchanges but further data would be needed to confirm this. There also seems to be periods of relative stability (horizontal periods) followed by some significant increases or decreases. For instance, between Feb 23, 07:00 to 08:00, the rate has decreased generally. Again, from Feb 23, 09:00 to 10:20, the rate gradually increased.

    Outliers Identification

    In terms of outliers within this dataset, it's been observed that there are points where there are sudden short-lived spikes or dips in the exchange rate. An example includes at February 23, 09:15 where the exchange rate suddenly jumps to 1.70694 compared to the previous timestamp. At February 23, 10:20 the exchange rate reached a high point of 1.70923 before decreasing again. However, without broader context or a defined mean, it's difficult to definitively list these as outliers.

    In conclusion, this intricacy of the exchange rate movement indicates that it's influenced by various factors which include the inherent volatility of the forex markets. Note that this analysis is purely quantitative and based on the number patterns; qualitative factors or factors not included in the dataset may also significantly influence the exchange rate trend.