Taka Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    The given data represents the BDT exchange rate measured for the date of February 29, 2024 with minute-by-minute readings. The BDT rate starts on this day at a value of 0.01238 and fluctuates slightly throughout the day, ultimately settling back to a value of 0.01235. Though there are minor fluctuations in between, the overall trend appears to be somewhat stable with minor depreciation seen in BDT throughout a single day.

    Pattern and Seasonality Analysis

    The time-series data doesn't span across multiple periods (weeks/quarters/years) to properly assess seasonal trends in the exchange rates. However, within the single day of data, the rates seem to be on a relatively steady state with minor fluctuations, but no clearly identifiable large spikes or troughs that would suggest specific recurring patterns within the day.

    Outliers & Anomalies

    Gauging the outliers from the given data can be slightly tricky without a statistical analysis. However, an eyeball test doesn't seem to reveal dramatic outliers or anomalies from the prevailing trend in the data. There are instances where the exchange rate moderately rises or falls; however, these occurrences don't diverge significantly from the overall steady pattern and they seem to be random in nature as opposed to forming a certain pattern.

    Further Notes

    The given data only consists of a single day which forms a limited snapshot and doesn't allow for robust trend or seasonal analysis. Furthermore, this analysis is purely based on the raw time-series data without an understanding of external factors that can influence exchange rates such as macroeconomic news, political events, or structural changes in trade policies.

    Also, let's keep in consideration that the foreign exchange market operates 24 hours, thus the opening and closing hours of specific financial markets and their overlap globally can cause different levels of liquidity and volatility in exchange rates. Furthermore, weekends and holidays can also affect trading activity and in turn, exchange rates. Finally, the release of key economic indicators (like GDP, inflation, unemployment etc.), central bank decisions, and other financial news can also significantly impact exchange rates.

    In conclusion, a single day of data shows a steady trend with minor depreciation in the BDT exchange rate. There are some fluctuations seen throughout the day but they don't seem to form a specific or strong pattern. Moreover, the influence of any specific market events or factors isn't deducible from the given data.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    Upon analyzing the dataset, it can be identified that there is a very slight increment in the BDT exchange rate over the period shown. The exchange rate remains relatively stable, starting around 0.01232 at the beginning of the dataset and rising very gradually to approximately 0.01238 towards the end of the dataset. The changes happened slowly, indicating a moderate level of exchange rate volatility.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Given that the data set only reflects a single day, determining specific seasonality or recurring patterns is challenging. However, no noticeable cyclical or repeating patterns were discerned for this one-day period. The changes in the exchange rate were fluid and lacked a particular pattern that reoccurred at regular or predictable intervals. A more extensive dataset, encompassing multiple weeks, months or even years of data, might be necessary to accurately identify and ascertain any seasonality or recurring patterns.

    Outliers Identification

    Throughout the covered period, there are no significant outliers or drastic spikes noticeable in the exchange rate. The change in the exchange rate is quite consistent, usually fluctuating between a fraction of a percentage. The exchange rate remained stable with a steady, incremental trend.

    Conclusion

    To summarize, the exchange rate for BDT displayed a minimal upward trend over the course of the day recorded in the dataset. The shifts in the exchange rate were untilled and devoid of distinct, repeating patterns. Additionally, the dataset did not have any unexpected or abnormal rate changes, suggesting that the day was devoid of unexpected market events or shocks that could have influenced the exchange rate drastically.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The dataset provided contains timestamped BDT exchange rates data for a specific day. At first glance, the BDT exchange rate begins at 0.0123 and remains steady for a long stretch of time. Thereafter, the data shows minor fluctuations, particularly at around 02:05 to 02:30 where the value increases slightly to 0.01231 before reverting to 0.0123 at 02:25 and then picks up at 0.01231 again at 02:30. Another slight increase is observed starting at 06:20 with the value rising to 0.01232 and holding fairly steady for the most part from thereon.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    As far as recurring patterns or seasonality within this one-day period, the changes in BDT exchange rates don't seem to follow a clear or predictable pattern. Over larger timescales, it might be possible to identify daily, weekly, or monthly trends, but this dataset is too narrow to say definitively. Nevertheless, it can be noticed that the recurring slight changes occur roughly every few hours.

    Outliers in The Exchange Rates

    In examining the dataset, there aren't any clear outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs notably from the general trend. The exchange rate variations are very slight, indicating a relatively stable exchange rate during this particular day.

    Despite the limitations of the data provided, this analysis helps to understand the overall stability and slight fluctuations in the BDT exchange rates within the specified day. However, for a more comprehensive analysis or for any actionable insights, it would be valuable to have datasets over longer periods.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Overview of data analysis

    The provided data set is a time series of exchange rates (BDT) at different time intervals. Upon quick review of the data, it was observed that this time-series data runs from 2024-01-26 to 2024-02-23.

    Trend Analysis

    Observing the numerical trends, the exchange rates over the dataset seem to be reasonably consistent, without any drastic fluctuations. The value oscillates approximately in range from 0.01216 to 0.01238. Therefore, it can be inferred that the exchange rate is reasonably stable over this period. However, minor fluctuations in the data set points could indicate small increases or decreases in the exchange rates at specific times, this can be considered as a kind of "noise" in a generally stable trend.

    Seasonality and Patterns

    Without the extensive application of time-series algorithms, it's harder to confidently confirm seasonality or repeating patterns in the data set. In general, longer data history is needed to reliably determine seasonality, especially when considering daily, weekly or monthly trends.

    Furthermore, without a data validation or cross-referencing with external events such as holidays, financial disclosures, etc, it's hard to accurately determine any cyclical pattern. But based on the basic analysis, there doesn't seem to be clearly visible recurring patterns or seasonality in the exchange rates within this period.

    Outliers Analysis

    There's no drastic change observed in the exchange rates that could be considered an outlier. All values range within a close interval from 0.01216 to 0.01238, the difference between the maximum and minimum values is very small. In this case, it's safe to say that there were no significant outliers in the dataset provided.

    Final Remarks

    It's crucial to note that the results of this analysis are purely observational and based on a quick overview of the dataset. To do an in-depth and more robust analysis, better use of time-series analysis methods, further data engineering or even applying machine learning models could be necessary. This analysis is restrained from making forecasts as requested.

    Lastly, the analysis didn't take into account external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Cross-referencing the data with these factors could provide deeper insights into the observed trends.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Overview

    The provided dataset reflects the changes in the exchange rate (BDT) over a specified period. Here's a comprehensive analysis considering the goals mentioned.

    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    By reviewing the given data, the overall trend appears to be relatively stable with minor fluctuations. The BDT exchange rate started at 0.01228 on 19th February 2024, and ended at 0.0123 on 23rd February 2024, showing a slight increase over this period. However, given the relatively small change in value, we can conclude the exchange rate remains relatively stable over the time period covered in the dataset.

    2. Identifying any Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Within the given time-series data and considering the short time frame, it appears challenging to detect any significant seasonality or recurring patterns. The exchange rate shows minor fluctuations throughout the day but doesn't demonstrate a definite rising or falling pattern during specific hours. Further data over a more extended period would be needed to ascertain if any seasonal patterns exist.

    3. Noting any Outliers

    In the available dataset, no significant outliers are observed. The exchange rate values maintain a relatively narrow range between 0.01224 and 0.01234. This relatively tight range suggests the exchange rate's stability and absence of any significant unexpected spikes or falls.

    In conclusion, the given time-series data of the BDT exchange rate over the period between 19th February 2024 to 23rd February 2024 shows a generally stable trend with no apparent seasonal patterns or notable outliers.

    Note: The analysis didn't include any specific external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Additionally, no predictive modelling was carried out for the future rates.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    Looking at the provided time series data for the BDT exchange rate on February 23, 2024, the first thing to note is that the exchange rates appear to be relatively stable throughout this day. The exchange rate starts at 0.01225 at midnight and ends at 0.0123 by the end of the day. This indicates a very slight overall increase in the exchange rate during this period. However, this increase is minor and there are fluctuations throughout the day, indicating this is a market with moderate volatility on the chosen day.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Fluctuations in the exchange rate data do not indicate any obvious seasonality or recurring patterns within this one day period. The minimal ups and downs do not appear at consistent intervals, suggesting that these fluctuations may be random and not tied to specific recurrent events within the day. Therefore, it would be risky to assume any pattern from this single day's data.

    Noting Any Outliers

    In terms of outliers, there doesn't seem to be any individual data point that differs significantly from the rest. The highest recorded exchange rate is 0.01231 (which happens a few times particularly around late morning and early afternoon) and the lowest is 0.01224 (also occurring a number of times during early morning and late night). These values are not far off from the majority of rates observed throughout this day, and which stay between 0.01225 and 0.0123 for the most part. This suggests there aren't extreme outliers on this day in the BDT exchange market.

    Note that while the observation is on a single day's data and could be subject to day-specific variables, this does not necessarily represent the typical behavior of the currency exchange market. It's also worth considering a longer time period to draw more definitive conclusions about trends and patterns over time