Mozambique Metical Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

• Mean:
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Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

After a detailed examination of the data, the overall trend for the MZN exchange rate largely seems to remain stable, with minimal fluctuation throughout the given timeframe. While there are slight variations in the rate, the predominant pattern within this data set is one of stability, with the exchange rate hovering around 0.02150 - 0.02160.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, it is challenging to derive such patterns with the data provided. The lack of extreme highs and lows, along with the relatively constant nature of the exchange rates, indicate no discernable periodic or reoccurring variability in the exchange rates.

3. Noting Any Outliers

The data does not demonstrate any significant outliers. No instances were noted where the exchange rate differs greatly from the apparent range of fluctuation, which is a fairly tight window around the 0.02150 - 0.02160 value. This could indicate a period of relative economic stability over the dataset's timeframe.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend

The data provided for the date of April 24, 2024, shows a very slight upward trend in the mzn exchange rate. The rate starts at 0.02151 at the beginning of the day and ends up at 0.02156 at the end of the day. Although the changes are very minute, the rate shows a steady slight increase.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

With the data provided, it's hard to identify any detailed seasonality or recurring patterns merely from one day's exchange rates. This would normally be analyzed over a much more extended period, usually months or years. However, within the day, no clear recurring pattern for this particular day is evident.

Outliers

Throughout the dataset, there appear to be no significant outliers. The exchange rate seems to fluctuate slightly throughout the day but stays within a narrow range. There are no instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the overall trend within the provided dataset.

Conclusion

This data indicates a very mild increasing trend for the mzn exchange rate for the date analyzed, April 24, 2024. There are no significant fluctuations or outliers, indicating a stable exchange rate for this specific day. For a more profound understanding of the seasonality, recurring patterns, and overall trend, data over a more extended period should be analyzed.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend

From an initial glance at the data, the exchange rate of MZN has fairly remained stable for the time period shown. The rate started at 0.02157 and seems fluctuating within a minor range ending at 0.02152. However, it has a slightly decreasing trend over time, as the peaks (rates) at later timestamps are marginally lower than the preceding ones.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Due to the short period of the data and the seemingly stable state of the MZN exchange rate throughout, it's not immediately apparent if there's any strong seasonality or recurring patterns. However, closer inspection of the data shows minor fluctuations at regular short intervals of time. This may suggest a potential daily trading pattern, but would require additional data for confirmation.

Notable Outliers

There are no notable outliers in this data set. All exchange rate values lie in a similar range (between 0.0215 and 0.0216), and there are no abrupt jumps or falls. However, more sophisticated statistical analysis techniques can be employed to ensure this point, as some outliers might be subtle and not easily perceived through a general overview.

Final Thoughts

The MZN exchange rate, within this particular timeframe, shows a relatively stable behavior with slight downward trend. While there seem to be no alarming outliers, the detection of any recurring patterns or seasonality requires a broader data set covering multiple cycles of the suspected periods. Any anomalies or unique behaviors may be better explored by looking at a larger, more comprehensive dataset and applying advanced data analysis techniques.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The dataset presented appears to depict a relatively stable exchange rate over the given period. Specifically, the rate appears to oscillate between 0.02156 and 0.02165. There doesn't seem to be a clear increasing or decreasing trend in the data. Rather, the exchange rate oscillates within a very narrow range, indicating a potentially stable financial period.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In this time series data, there does not appear to be a clear seasonality or recurrent pattern in the exchange rates. The fluctuating values seem relatively random and do not show a clear-patterned fluctuation that would suggest a seasonal shift or recurring trend. It is important to note that to accurately identify the presence of seasonality, a more extended time series data may be required.

Outliers

Based on the figures provided, there does not seem to be any significant outliers in this dataset. This is because the data appears to be relatively stable, oscillating within a small range around 0.0216 mark. Nonetheless, an in-depth statistical analysis can provide a better understanding of the distribution of these exchange rates and reveal insights about potential outliers in more subtle ways.

Note

Given the data and constraints, our analysis is limited to the descriptive analysis of this time series data. It doesn't include predictions or the consideration of potential external factors that may influence exchange rates, such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend

Looking at the given dataset, the overall trend of the exchange rates demonstrates a cyclic behavior with minor fluctuations. The rates started at 0.02136 on March 22, 2024 and by April 19, 2024, it moderately increased to 0.02164. Therefore, an initial assessment of the data indicates a slow but steady rising trend in the exchange rate over this period.

Recurring Patterns and Seasonality

Upon evaluating the dataset, there doesn't seem to be a clear recurring pattern or seasonality in terms of time of the day or a specific day in a week. The fluctuation occurs throughout the dataset in a seemingly random fashion, sometimes experiencing an increase or a decrease in exchange rate. This can be indicative of the exchange rates being influenced by multiple external factors that are variable and not strictly time-dependant.

Outliers

The dataset doesn't present any significant outliers. This can be deduced from the fact that there are no large jumps or dips; the values smoothly transition from one to the next throughout the dataset. Nevertheless, a slight increase in exchange rate can be observed around April 10, with the values reaching upwards to 0.02156, post which it returns to its regular fluctuation pattern showing that occasional rises and falls are still within a predictable and reasonable range.

It's important to consider that while conducting financial analysis on time-series data such as this, factors such as market volatility, economic indicators, and geopolitical events can cause significant deviations. In this scenario, however, the exclusion of such aspects provides us with a straightforward, overall increase in the trend of the exchange rates over the time period covered by this data.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

From an initial look at the data, it can be observed that the exchange rate remains relatively stable over the period shown. The exchange rate appears to fluctuate within a tight range between 0.02165 and 0.02178. This shows a low level of volatility in the exchange rate over the period presented. However, there are minor variations in the value and direction of the exchange rate across different timestamps. Some periods show a slight increment, while others display a decrement. Overall, no clear upward or downward trend is detected from the dataset provided.

2. Identifying Any Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in the Changes of Exchange Rates

Due to the stability of the exchange rates, at first view, no obvious seasonality or recurring pattern can be detected in this data. It may be possible that any subtle seasonality or recurring patterns are overshadowed by the randomness of the financial data, especially without considering external market factors. Given the restriction not to consider factors like market opening/closing hours or the release of key financial news and reports, it is difficult to pinpoint any specific patterns in the data. It could be possible to identify potential seasonalities or recurring patterns with more comprehensive data over a wider timeframe and by incorporating time-series analysis methods.

3. Noting Any Outliers, or Instances Where the Exchange Rate Differs Significantly from What Would be Expected Based on the Trend or Seasonality

Given the range of the dataset specified, there are no noticeable outliers that deviate considerably from the trend. All observations within this dataset sit within a close range of each other, and there is no single observation that can be determined as an outlier based on statistical measures. This is likely due to the apparent stability and low volatility of the exchange rates during this observed period. Nevertheless, it should be noted that this assessment does not account for external factors, which may impact the exchange rate significantly and abruptly, leading to outlier observations.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Given that this is a text-based communication, I won't be able to perform any direct graphical analysis or visualizations. However, based on the data provided, here's what we can derive:

1. The Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Looking at the data, it presents a slightly negative but almost neutral trend. The rate mostly hovers around 0.0217 with slight fluctuations downwards such as 0.02169, or 0.02166, which indicates a tendency for the rates to decrease. However, the fluctuations are usually very small and within the range, suggesting an overall stable market with minor decreases.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in Exchange Rates

From the data, it's not immediately apparent if there are any strong patterns or seasonality. The data does fluctuate slightly throughout the different timestamps, but without a visual representation of the data, it's difficult to discern if there is a specific pattern or repeating cycle with the provided communication structure. Additionally, as the data is over a short 14-hour period, longer-term patterns or seasonal effects might be less noticeable.

3. Identification of Outliers

Based on the provided list, no significant outliers are immediately obvious. The exchange rates stay within a very narrow range from 0.02162 to 0.02171. Again, without a visual presentation using boxplot or scatter plot, it's challenging to identify outliers. However, based on the listed data, there doesn't seem to be any drastic fluctuations that could be classified as outliers. Therefore, we can deduce that the rates were relatively stable during the given timelines.

Remember that while this analysis is useful for understanding the provided data, it lacks the depth that could be achieved with a more comprehensive view. Obviously, in the real world, external factors and events are intrinsically linked to currency exchange rates, and a thorough analysis would take them into account. To have an exact and a much more accurate study, a more comprehensive analysis including visual representations (graphs, charts) would be highly beneficial.