Mozambique Metical Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    The data you provided spans from 2024-02-29 00:00:02 to 2024-02-29 23:55:02 for each timestamp in this 24-hour period, there is a corresponding MZN exchange rate. Here's the analysis you asked for:

    Overall Trend

    From an initial glance at the data, the exchange rate seems to hover around 0.02137 to 0.02141, with minimal fluctuation. However, a definitive statement about an upward or downward trend can't be made just by visually inspecting the data. It would require the application of time-series analysis techniques to robustly estimate the trend component. Keep in mind that financial data can be quite volatile and non-linear, and the trend may vary depending on the time scale (daily, hourly, minutely, etc.)

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Identifying seasonality in the given 24-hour period dataset is tricky as seasonality typically refers to patterns on larger time scales, such as weekly, monthly, or yearly. But, assuming for time within a day, the data does not show a clear pattern of seasonality. Note that proper periodogram or autocorrelation analysis can find subtle daily seasonality in larger datasets/p>.

    Outliers

    Outliers in a financial time-series could be either spikes or drops in the exchange rate that are drastically different from prior values. These sudden changes may be due to market news, macroeconomic data releases, or other unforeseen events. Given the scale of our data and the exchange rate range, between 0.02133 and 0.02141, it appears there are no significant spikes or drops within this 24-hour period as all values lay closely around this range.

    It's important to remember that these results are based solely on the data provided, which is limited to one day. Financial markets are complex and highly dynamic, with exchange rates influenced by a multitude of factors, including economic indicators, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. Therefore, while our analysis provides some initial insight, it does not capture these complexities.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    After analysing the data provided, it is observed that MZN exchange rate exhibits a slight upward trend from the beginning to the end of the time series provided. The exchange rate starts at about 0.02132 at 00:00:02 and ends at approximately 0.02137 by 23:55:02 of the same day. This indicates a minor appreciation of the currency throughout the time period considered.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns throughout the day, there is no obvious cyclical pattern discernible from the data subset provided. It appears that the fluctuations in the exchange rate are relatively random and not tied to a particular time of day.

    Identifying Outliers

    Regarding outliers, the variations in the exchange rate within the provided data subset appear to be consistent with a range of 0.02132 to 0.02142, which suggests that there are no extreme outliers in this data set. The changes between each timestamp are relatively minimal and do not show any significant jumps or drops that would indicate an outlier.

    In conclusion, while a slight upward trend can be observed, the MZN exchange rates remain relatively stable over the entire course of the day. Also, no clear seasonal or recurring patterns were identified, and no instances of outliers were observed.

Summary of Yesterday

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Summary of Last Month

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    Looking at the data, the mzn exchange rate was relatively stable throughout the period, with minor fluctuations observed. It started with a value of 0.02128 at 2024-02-26 00:00:02 and ended at 0.02127 on 2024-02-26 23:55:02. The highest exchange rate point was 0.02133 while the lowest was 0.02125, which indicates a narrow range throughout the day.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    It is hard to identify any significant seasonality or recurring patterns as most of the time the exchange rate remained relatively stable and within a narrow range. The data for a single day may not grasp any seasonal or recurring patterns as it would usually require data for several periods or cycles like weeks, months or years.

    Outliers Analysis

    The data doesn't seem to have any significant outliers. Given the relatively small variations in exchange rates throughout the period, no single exchange rate can be considered significantly different from the others. Most of the values are within the range from 0.02125 to 0.02133.

    Note

    The analysis is based only on the exchange rate data provided, without considering external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Multiple days, weeks, or even months' data points would be required for a more comprehensive analysis that could capture trends, patterns, and influences of external factors.

Summary of Last Week

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    Analysis of MZN Exchange Rate Time Series Data

    The provided dataset records the changes in exchange rates for MZN at different timestamps. From an initial review of the data, several key observations and patterns have been made. However, it should be noted that this analysis does not consider external influences such as market opening/closing times, weekends/holidays, financial news, or reports.

    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    Over the period captured in the dataset, the exchange rate for MZN generally shows slight fluctuations but largely remains stable. The value oscilates around 0.02118 and 0.02128 MZN, with no substantial or consistent increase or decrease observed in the time series. This could suggest that during this period, MZN was relatively stable, and notably significant economic disruptions were not present.

    2. Identifying Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    At a glance, it seems there are no strong seasonal patterns or cycles with clear frequencies within the given window of time. The MZN exchange rates do not show a consistent trend of fluctuating at specific intervals or recurring patterns that would suggest seasonality. However, such patterns may become clearer with a larger dataset covering longer periods.

    3. Noting Significant Outliers

    From the given time series, outliers are hard to accurately identify due to the minor variations in exchange rates. There aren't any instances where the exchange rate significantly deviates from the trend line. The figures tend to remain close to the average throughout the period. Outliers in financial data often stand out as abrupt and substantial spikes or dips in value, which are not evident in this dataset.

    To sum up, the MZN exchange rates have remained relatively stable over the timeframe covered in the dataset. While no substantial shifts in value were detected, the data presents minor oscillations. There is no clear pattern or seasonality within this dataset, and no significant outliers were observed.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    From the data given, the overall trend of the exchange rates appears to be relatively stable. The rates range from a low of 0.02118 to a high of 0.02131, which indicate minor fluctuations over the given period. There are some periods of slight increase and decrease, but there does not seem to be a general upward or downward trend.

    Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns

    On the time-series data, it is difficult to establish seasonality or recurring patterns without a wider data range. However, there seems to be a slight decrease in the exchange rate during the early hours (01:00 - 05:00) across several days. These movements could be tied to less trading activity occurring during these non-peak hours, but more data would be needed to confirm such a pattern.

    Noting any outliers

    There are no significant outliers present in the data, with the majority of values clustering around the 0.02124 - 0.02128 range. This suggests that the exchange rate is relatively consistent. Nevertheless, there are slight fluctuations, as seen in 0.02118 to 0.02131 range, but these minimal fluctuations do not reflect significant outliers. They are likely a result of normal trading activity.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend

    The overall trend of the exchange rates in this dataset appears to remain generally stable with slight fluctuations. The exchange rate often changes between 0.02120 to 0.02129 over this given period, with the average around 0.02125. This consistent range shows that there is no significant increase or decrease in exchange rates over this time.

    Seasonality

    As for seasonality, it is challenging to identify any substantial recurring pattern of the exchange rates within this provided dataset. There are subtle variations but nothing that indicates consistent, repetitive fluctuations on a particular time or day. To accurately identify seasonal patterns, we usually need data over a long time period including different seasons. However, in this short-term financial data, the evidence of seasonality is not apparent.

    Outliers

    An inspection of the dataset does not reveal any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the average range. The slight fluctuations are normal in exchange rates data, and here none of them is extremely different to be considered as an outlier. There is also no evidence of abnormal spikes or sudden drops that would signify market actions or significant economic events.

    Conclusion

    Overall, the time-series data of the MZN exchange rate for this specific period seems to exhibit a stable pattern with a slight variation within a narrow range. There is no evidence of any major trend, seasonality, or outliers. This suggests that during this period, the MZN market experienced a steady phase with no dramatic upheaval in terms of its exchange rate.