Djibouti Franc Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    Upon analyzing the dataset, it's clear that the exchange rates do not exhibit strong upward or downward trends and are relatively stable. The exchange rate is hovering around 0.00763 and 0.00761 consistently for the majority of the observed period. Only slight fluctuations are observed indicating that the rates are fairly constant; with only a slight increase to 0.00764 after the initial timestamps, then a slight decrease in the later timestamps.

    Identifying Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    The data provided does not suggest any pronounced seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rate within the time period observed. It is important to note that in order to determine the existence of seasonal trends much more considerable time-frame is typically needed. However, within this one-day data snapshot, the exchange rate shows slight fluctuation but no identifiable recurring pattern.

    Noting Outliers in the Data

    In reference to this dataset, an ‘outlier’ would be defined as a value that is distinctly different from the other values. The observed exchange rates are consistently around 0.00763 and 0.00761 with the exception of a slight increase to 0.00764 in the middle of the observed period. Given the general consistency in the data, these incidents can be identified as potential outliers. Although, it is crucial to remember that with financial data, what could be seen as an outlier might be the result of a particular event or market condition and hence it's always beneficial to analyze outliers in the context of the data.

    Additional Consideration

    An important element in understanding this data further can be looking at when the highest and lowest exchange rates occur (highest being at 0.00764 and lowest at 0.00761), and identifying any pattern or correlation with the timestamp. This would require a more granular look at specific time points.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Overall Trend Analysis

    Looking at the data provided, the exchange rate seems to exhibit a slow and steady increase over time. It starts at 0.0076 and over the course of a day, it gradually increases to 0.00764. The trend is not dramatic, but fairly consistent. This would indicate a situation where the value of the currency in question is slowly gaining in relation to the other currency over this short time frame.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Regarding seasonality or recurring patterns, with the given data of 24 hours time series, it's difficult to determine any precise pattern. It would require more extended periods, maybe weeks or months, to confidently say if there's a diurnal (day/night), weekly, or monthly pattern. However, it might be observed that there's a minor fluctuation in the rates, probably due to different market activities, but no clear seasonal pattern can be identified from the provided 24 hours time series data.

    Outlier Detection

    No real outliers can be observed in the given data. All values range between 0.0076 and 0.00764, showing no drastic, sudden changes in the exchange rate. Therefore, no specific point values differ significantly from what would be expected based on the upward trend identified earlier.

    External Factors

    While this analysis does not take into account any specific external events or consider any factors like market timings or financial news, it's important to note that in a real-world setting, these factors can significantly influence exchange rates. However, with the limited scope of data, such details have not been incorporated into our analysis.

    The analysis made here provides a summary of rate changes in a 24 hour period tracking the DJF exchange rate. For a more comprehensive understanding and accurate forecasting, a more detailed analysis involving longer periods and accounting for known external influences would be highly beneficial.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Daily Low:
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Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The exchange rate of DJF appears to be relatively stable for the timeframe given in this dataset. The rates started at a value of 0.00758, showed slight increases to 0.00759, then a peak value of 0.00761, and then dropped back to 0.00758 towards the end. These fluctuations, while present, are minimal. Therefore, it can be concluded that the exchange rate of DJF has an overall stable trend.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    With the given data it is difficult to assert any robust seasonality or recurring patterns. The exchange rates alter minimally over specific periods, but these changes do not appear to follow any obvious pattern. A more detailed cyclical analysis or a larger dataset may be required to accurately capture any seasonality in exchange rate movement.

    3. Identification of Outliers

    Outliers in this context would be sudden spikes or drops in the DJF exchange rate. In this dataset, no significant outliers are evident. There is a slight increase around the 11:20 to 12:55 timestamp where the exchange rate peaks at 0.00761, but this deviation from the general trend is minimal and may not be considered as a significant outlier.

    4. Influence of External Factors

    Per the constraints of the analysis, significant external factors such as market openings/closings, weekends/holidays, and the release of key financial news and reports weren't considered in this analysis. These factors can certainly have a profound impact on the exchange rates. However, the dataset provided does not suggest any significant influence of these factors, as it has been stipulated that these are not to be considered.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    After examining the data, it appears that the overall trend of DJF exchange rates from January 26, 2024, to February 23, 2024, is relatively stable. Although there is some degree of fluctuation within a small range, there isn't any clear or consistent upward or downward direction observed over this period. The rate appears to oscillate approximately between 0.0075 and 0.0076, indicating a stable trend with minor variations.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in Exchange Rates

    In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, the provided dataset does not present any clear daily or monthly patterns. The fluctuations in the rate seem to occur randomly rather than following a predictable seasonal pattern. However, to conclude on seasonality, data over a greater length of time may be needed.

    Identifying Outliers in the Exchange Rates

    Given the consistency of the fluctuation range, it is hard to identify any significant outliers with the data in hand. The rates tend to fluctuate around a similar range, and no individual rates stand out for being exceptionally high or low in this dataset. Thus, based on provided data, there appear to be no major outliers.

    Remember, my analysis doesn't consider external factors such market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays or the release of key financial news and reports.

    In Conclusions

    1. The overall trend of DJF exchange rates from January 26, 2024 to February 23, 2024 is relatively stable, with minor fluctuations.
    2. There are no clear seasonal or recurring patterns observed in this dataset.
    3. No significant outliers were noticed in the dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    1. Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    From a high-level observation of the given dataset, it is noticed that the exchange rate, represented by the 'DJF' exchange rate, demonstrated a moderate degree of fluctuation from 0.00755 to 0.00761 over the recorded period. The values oscillated in generally steady manner suggesting a largely stable tendency, with minor punctuated disruptions. However, generally speaking, no distinct long-term increasing or decreasing trend can be conclusively determined purely from this dataset without further investigation.

    2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Given the limited scope and range of the provided dataset, tracing unequivocal seasonality or recurring pattern becomes challenging. While there do appear to be intermittent fluctuations in the rate, these deviations don't seem to be consistent or sufficiently regular to suggest a substantial seasonality pattern. Although, further analysis with larger and more diverse dataset spanning across multiple years would be useful for confirming the presence or absence of such pattern and cycles.

    3. Noting any Outliers

    In the given dataset, there are no perceptible outliers capable of significantly swaying the general pattern. The DJF exchange rate fluctuates within a very tight range of 0.00755 to 0.00761, signifying very little volatility. This finding is in keeping with the generally very stable behaviour of exchange rates. Any significantly irregular deviation in a long-term frame would be considered as potential outlier. However, this dataset does not present any of such irregular, inexplicably high or low rates.

    Closing Remarks

    The analysis is limited to an initial examination of the dataset and does not take into account a wide range of external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, on the exchange rate. Additional information and longer periods of data could help to give a more comprehensive understanding of the DJF exchange rate behaviour in the financial markets.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Understanding the Overall Trend

    The data provided shows an overall stability in the exchange rates for the period analyzed. The majority of the rates remained within the range of 0.00754 to 0.0076. There were very slight increases observed at certain points - particularly around the 06:20:02 timestamp where the rate increased to 0.00757 but reverted to the previous range shortly after. By the end of the period, the rate increased slightly more to 0.0076, but this change is minimal. Therefore, the overall trend of the exchange rates can be said to be largely stable with minor fluctuations.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    From an initial analysis, there do not appear to be any notable seasonal or recurring patterns in the data. The exchange rates remain mostly consistent throughout the different timestamps, with the only discernible pattern being the minor fluctuations discussed earlier. Given the short span of the data and the absence of any large-scale changes, it's difficult to definitively determine any seasonality or recurring patterns.

    Noting Any Outliers

    Given the overall stability and minimal fluctuation in the exchange rates over the period analyzed, there are no significant outliers. The data points all fall within close range of each other and any instances of rates differing from the average are minor and soon correct themselves to fall back within the usual range.

    It is important to note that any more detailed or predictive analysis might require considering factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays or the release of key financial news and reports. However as per your requirement, these factors have not been taken into consideration for this analysis.