Ngultrum Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Upon reviewing the data, it appears that the exchange rates have not fluctuated significantly over the time period represented. The rates start at 0.01639 on 2024-02-29 00:00:02 and end at 0.01635 on 2024-02-29 23:55:02. This indicates a very slight decline in the rate over this period. However, due to the small change and the occasional increases and decreases throughout the day, it's accurate to state that the rate has generally remained stable within this timeframe.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of Exchange Rates

    Due to the limited scope of the data provided, which only covers a 24-hour period, any identified seasonality or recurring patterns may not accurately depict long-term trends or seasonality that could present over a longer period. Yet, within the given day time-series data, the exchange rate changes are minimal, fluctuating between 0.01639 and 0.01634 throughout the day. However, there were slightly more considerable declines around 07:35:03 (0.01638), 14:45:02 (0.01636), and 20:15:03 (0.01634). In general, there are no strong recurring patterns that can be identified within this single day.

    3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected

    Given the stability of the exchange rates throughout the day, no significant outliers are visible in this dataset. All recorded deviations in the data were relatively minor and stayed within a small range. Thus, it appears that the exchange rate remains relatively stable without significant unexpected changes.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend

    Based on the provided dataset, it can be observed that there is a slight increasing trend in the exchange rates over the period shown. The exchange rate starts at 0.01633 at the beginning and ends at 0.01639, which indicates a small increase.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    It is hard to identify any clear patterns of seasonality or recurrence in the exchange rates based on the provided data. Exchange rates can be influenced by a multitude of factors, including economic indicators, political events, and market sentiment. In this case, the data doesn't appear to show any evident recurring patterns within the day or noticeable intraday seasonality.

    Outliers in the Exchange Rates

    The exchange rates appear to be relatively stable over the duration provided. There is no significant incidence where the exchange rate deviates substantially from the consistent trend observed. However, further analysis would be needed with a larger dataset or consideration of external factors to conclusively identify potential outliers. The values fluctuate within a very close range throughout, suggesting no apparent anomalies or outliers in the data.

    Please note that this analysis is purely descriptive and based on the data provided only. Predictive analysis, factor consideration or outlier identification necessitates more advanced statistical methods and possibly more varied and extensive data.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    From the time-series data provided, the BTN exchange rates don't exhibit significant changes. The fluctuations are primarily minor. The lowest recorded exchange rate is 0.01627, while the highest is 0.01632. This suggests a rather stable exchange rate for BTN during the monitored period.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns

    The data does not appear to show any clear seasonality or recurring patterns. The exchange rate of BTN largely maintains stability throughout the recorded data. The increments and decrements are gradual, insignificant, and do not follow a time-bound pattern that could suggest seasonality.

    3. Noting any outliers

    An outlier in this context would be an instance where the exchange rate differs significantly from the general range of the values. Given that the movement of the exchange rate within the dataset is quite small, no significant outliers can be identified. The highest and lowest rates are close to each other, reinforcing the observation of stability in BTN exchange rate within the given time period.

    4. Consideration of External Factors

    As per your directives, no external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports have been taken into account in this analysis. Therefore, if any such factor had a significant influence, it is not reflected in this analysis.

    5. Forecasting Future Rates

    In accordance with your request, no forecast for future exchange rates has been generated based on this data.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the overall trend

    The overall trend in the data can be perceived by analysing the movement of exchange rates from the start to end. Upon initial inspection, there seems to be a slight yet steady increase in the rates. This slow upward trend is indicative of the gradual appreciation in the value of the BTN. However, it is essential to point out that this is a generalized observation and may not hold true for every specific time interval within the data. 'Upward' here, denotes that the value of the BTN has been increasing against whichever currency it has been compared to in this dataset.

    Identifying recurring patterns and seasonality

    If any repetitive or cyclical patterns exist in these rates, it signifies seasonality. On a surface level, the data does not seem to show any clear presence of seasonality or recurring patterns. The rates do not seem to follow a clearly identifiable pattern based on the day of the week, time of the day, or any other similar cyclic time frame. The absence of a noticeable seasonality indicates that the BTN rates in the given period did not undergo repeating or predictable changes based on the time-year structure. However, minor fluctuations are indeed present, but their lack of consistency makes it challenging to infer a seasonal trend.

    Spotting outliers

    Outliers in this context would be those data points where there is a significant difference between a particular exchange rate and its preceding and succeeding rates. Based on the data, it can be observed that there aren't instances of dramatic or extreme shifts in rates - the changes are mostly gradual and subtle. Thus, from a broader perspective, the dataset does not seem to contain any significant outliers.

    However, it's worthwhile to consider that there could be minute variations and outliers that might have been missed in this high-level overview. Detailed and sophisticated statistical analysis could bring such subtle phenomena into light.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend

    Based on the data provided, the overall trend of the exchange rate between 19th February 2024 and 23rd February 2024 might be seen as relatively stable. The exchange rate has remained within a very close range, between approximately 0.01622 and 0.01634. There were slight increases and decreases over this period, but these changes are relatively small.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    From a cursory view of the data, there does not appear to be a clear seasonality or recurring pattern to the exchange rate changes over the course of these days. There is some fluctuation at certain hours, but it does not seem to follow a clear cyclical pattern. It is also important to note that this analysis is based on a relatively short time interval, and longer datasets might be needed to identify any potential seasonality or recurring pattern more accurately.

    Outliers

    Regarding outliers, the data appears to be very consistent, with no significant deviations from the overall trend. However, slight peak points can be observed around four instances. These are on 19th February 2024 at 09:00:03 and 18:00:03, on 20th February 2024 at 14:00:03, and 21st February 2024 at 03:00:02. These sharp fluctuations may signify specific market conditions and should be examined further for a more accurate interpretation.

    Note: Given the data and constraints provided, this analysis does not consider the external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Also, any forecast for future rates has not been generated.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Analysis of the Overall Trend

    After analyzing the data provided, there seems to be very minimal volatility in the exchange rates for BTN over the specific timestamp range. The initial value of the exchange rate at the beginning of the time-frame is 0.01622, which only fluctuates slightly throughout the dataset. The maximum observed exchange rate within the data is 0.01626 and the minimum exchange rate is 0.01619. This shows a very nominal up and down progression without significant volatility, indicating a relatively steady exchange.

    2. Identification of Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    No clear seasonality or recurring pattern could be identified from the provided dataset due to the relatively stable rates. The minute fluctuations in the rates do not form any discernible patterns. As this data only covers a span of a single day, it may not be sufficient to provide insight on longer-term seasonality or recurring patterns typical of exchange rate analysis which often requires analysis over a larger timescale. Nonetheless, no identifiable pattern can be drawn from this dataset at first glance.

    3. Identification of Outliers

    In this case, an 'outlier' would be a value that differs significantly from the mean value observed throughout the data. Due to the minimal fluctuations in the exchange rates, and the relatively stable value of those rates, no significant outliers have been observed. All rates in the dataset remain within close proximity of the mean exchange rate, so no instances of sudden spikes or dips were noted.

    As specified, external factors such as market opening/closing times, weekends/holidays, or significant financial news and reports have not been taken into account for this analysis. As such, this analysis is based strictly on the provided data, detached from any specific events or potential influencing factors. Also, no forecast for future rates was generated as per request.