UAE Dirham Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Based on the dataset provided, the overall trend of the exchange rates shows a slight decrease. The rates started at 0.37275 and ended at 0.37175. Throughout the period, there are fluctuations above and below these values, but the general movement of the exchange rate seems to be a slight downward trend.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

Due to the limited dataset provided, which spans over only a day, it is difficult to assertively identify any seasonality or recurring patterns. For a comprehensive seasonality study, data spanning over a year or multiple years would be preferred. However, within this day, there seem to be no obvious patterns in the changes in exchange rates; the fluctuations appear to be random within this limited context.

3. Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly

There do not appear to be any significant outliers in the provided dataset where the exchange rate differs overwhelmingly from the established pattern. Occasional spikes and dips are observed, but these are common in exchange rate data and don't represent a significant deviation. In statistics, an outlier is usually defined as values that are 3 standard deviations away from the mean.

Note

Please keep in mind that this analysis is basic and might not include all possible insights. Without considering any external influence such as market news or world events that can dramatically affect exchange rates, any conclusion might not reflect the true nature of the data's dynamics. It is recommended to carry out a comprehensive analysis that would include these external factors and perhaps longer data time series. Furthermore, developments in Machine Learning have led to advanced models capable of studying time series data and predicting future trends.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of the exchange rates

The overall trend of the data is upward moving, meaning that the general direction of the exchange rate for the period shown is rising. The exchange rate at the start of the data was 0.37208, and it ended at 0.37278, showing a slight increase over the period. There are some fluctuations throughout, with a notable dip occurring around 14:10-18:25, where it reaches the low point of 0.37295, and then recovers to end on a high note.

Seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, the analysis shows some consistent daily fluctuations. There seems to be a trend of an initial rise in value during the first five-six hours, followed by a slight decrease before it again picks up. Similarly, each hourly analysis indicates some micro patterns, like a minor peak at around 25 minutes past the hour, followed by a dip at 45 minutes past, which may be important if minute level trading strategies are being considered.

Outliers in the rates

Identifying outliers in time-series data can be challenging due to the temporal dependence of data points. From observing the dataset there don't appear to be any significant outliers in this set of exchange rate data. Most changes from one time point to the next are minute with no significant jumps. Extreme fluctuations would be considered outliers and may be due to factors not covered in this data set. However, the stability of the data might suggest that the rate is well managed and doesn't fluctuate too wildly.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Looking at the data provided, the overall trend of the AED exchange rate shows minor fluctuations, but there was no significant increase or decrease trend. The exchange rate started at 0.37298 and ended at 0.37207, indicating a slight decrease over the period. However, the highest value reached was 0.37334 and the lowest point was 0.37181, suggesting that the rate remained relatively stable within a narrow band.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Given the data for one day, it may not accurately present a recurring pattern due to the short time period. However, observing this dataset, it seems that there is no clear seasonality or recurring pattern in the fluctuation of the exchange rate for this particular day. The fluctuations are relatively small and do not demonstrate a fixed pattern that repeats at regular intervals. Generally, the rate appears to increase slightly from the start to mid-period before declining slightly.

Outliers and Significant Instances

There are no significant outliers in this data when we consider the overall variations in the exchange rates. Even the highest and lowest points do not differ significantly from the average exchange rate for this period. Hence, it can be concluded that there wasn't any instance where the exchange rate differed significantly from what is commonly observed during the intervals in this day.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

From a general perspective, the exchange rate seems to be relatively stable, fluctuating around an average of 0.373. There are slight fluctuations, but there's no evident long-term uptrend or downtrend observed. The values vary within a narrow range, indicating a low volatility in the exchange rates during the period under consideration.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

On the note of seasonality and recurring patterns, due to the limitation of the data provided (only a single day), it is difficult to identify any clear cut seasonal patterns from just 24 hours of data. Identifying seasonality generally requires a more extensive set of data covering multiple cycles (such as days, weeks, months). Therefore, no definite conclusion on seasonality in the exchange rates can be made from the information at hand.

Identification of Outliers

In this context, an 'outlier' would be a drastically different exchange rate compared to the observed range. There does not appear to be any severe spikes or drops in the exchange rate in this dataset, and accordingly, no prominent outliers have been identified. All observed fluctuations fall within a small range, suggesting the absence of unexpected events causing significant changes in the currency's value during this time frame.

Please note that this analysis is purely based on the dataset provided. For much more comprehensive insights; datasets covering more extended periods, considering external factors such as geopolitical events, economic indicators, and financial market dynamics may be required.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

The data provided shows a fluctuating trend in the exchange rates from the period 2024-03-22 to 2024-04-19. The exchange rate generally fluctuates between 0.368 and 0.376 over the specified period. Generally, a slight increase in the rates can be noticed over the time period, but it's also important to note that there is no strong upward or downward trend, and the exchange rate changes appear to be moderately volatile over the period.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Upon a close inspection of the exchange rates, there doesn't seem to be any clear evidence of seasonality or recurring patterns. The exchange rates fluctuate frequently and irregularly throughout the dataset. There is no obvious cycle of highs and lows that repeats at a constant interval, which is typical of seasonal trends. Thus, the exchange rates in the data provided appear to be influenced more by irregular factors.

Noting Outliers

Outliers in a dataset are values that are significantly different from most other values. Regarding this exchange rate data, it's difficult to definitively identify outliers without the context of a descriptive statistical analysis or the application of outlier detection methods. However, by comparing the numbers, no significant deviations from the general range of 0.368 to 0.376 are visible. Therefore, there doesn't seem to be values that could be classified as outliers based on this observation alone.

Please note that this kind of time-series analysis can only point out general trends and doesn't explain why these trends occur. A detailed analysis involving external factors such as economic policy changes, overall economic health, and geopolitical events may provide more context and information about why the trends occurred.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

To understand the general trend of the exchange rates, it is necessary to look at the overall changes that occur over the timeline provided. For this dataset, the exchange rates began at 0.37433 and finished at 0.37416. Therefore, there is a very slight decrease overall. However, the range of values from 0.37406 to 0.37656 suggests a degree of volatility in the exchange rate over this time.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in Exchange Rates

In this time-series data, no specific daily or hourly seasonality pattern can be clearly identified. The data fluctuates repeatedly within a small range. There isn't any deterministic pattern of the exchange rate falling or rising at specific hours of the day or specific days of the week based on this dataset.

3. Outliers in the Exchange Rates

Based on the dataset provided, there are no significant outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs starkly from what would be expected based on the general trend. The exchange rate mostly fluctuates within a relatively tight range, with the peak value of 0.37656 and the lowest value at 0.37406. Therefore, there are no instances in this dataset where the exchange rate deviates drastically from the expected values.

Please note that this analysis is strictly based on the data provided and does not factor in any external variables such as the effects of market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or key financial news and reports.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Upon analyzing the provided dataset, it is seen that there is a slight fluctuation in the exchange rates over the considered time period. The exchange rate starts at 0.37516 decreases to as low as 0.37374 then increases back to 0.37444. The range of fluctuation is very small, around 0.00142. Hence, one might conclude that the rates generally remain stable over the period shown.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Time series data often exhibit some form of seasonality, which is a regular pattern of variations that repeat over time periods. From the dataset provided, it's not immediately apparent that there are any hourly, daily, or weekly seasonal patterns. However, some minor fluctuations can be noticed at certain times possibly due to potential market behavior. Hence, for a more comprehensive conclusion, a more in-depth analysis with robust statistical tools would be required.

Identifying Outliers

Outliers in a dataset are extreme values that deviate from other observations on data. They may indicate a variability in a measurement, experimental errors, or a novelty. In the provided dataset, because the rates remain relatively stable, it is not immediately apparent that there is any significant outliers. The exchange rates remain within a relatively tight band of values, with no individual data points standing out as extremely high or low. From the provided data, it doesn't seem to contain any outliers.