UAE Dirham Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    Upon reviewing the data, it is evident that there is a general variability in the exchange rates over the given period. The rates start at 0.36958 and end at 0.36949. Although there seems to be a minor decline, it's not significant, and it's fair to describe the rates as fairly stable with a slight fluctuating trend. At multiple instances, the rates have shown spikes and falls; however, it seems to normalize and settle around an average.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, this dataset does not present a clear-cut pattern indicative of such. The fluctuations appear to happen sporadically and may be influenced by multiple factors that are not included in the available data. While we can make out a general tendency for the rates to oscillate around a mean value, a comprehensive time-series analysis would be required to definitively determine any seasonality.

    Outliers in Exchange Rates

    As for the outliers, there are numerous instances where the exchange rate differs from the immediate preceding and following values. These deviations, however, are not significantly large and are within an expected range for financial data such as this. They are more reflective of a natural level of volatility in exchange rates, rather than representing data errors or truly unusual market conditions. In financial series data, such volatility is common and is usually a response to collective actions of market participants rather than particular outlier events.

    Please note, this analysis is a high-level empirical analysis reliant on observed data patterns. Changes in exchange rates are influenced by a variety of factors, not all of which are captured in this dataset. For more accurate predictions, a robust time-series analysis and possibly machine learning models could be applied to this data, taking into account other influential variables.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend

    Given the dataset provided, the overall trend of the AED exchange rates demonstrates slight increases. Observing the data, it started at 0.36887 and ended at 0.36951, showcasing a gradual increase over the provided time window. However, the increases are intermittent and fluctuating, indicating a volatile market which is normal for currency exchange pairs.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    With regards to seasonality and recurring patterns, it can be quite challenging to explicitly determine any substantial patterns due to the short-time series data provided. More prolonged periods would typically be required for identifying seasonal patterns. However, given the data, it appears there might be slight intraday patterns where rate changes are typically minimal, indicating possible periods of low volatility and high volatility.

    Note on Outliers

    An outlier, in this context, would be a notable sudden rise or drop in the exchange rate that does not align with the general pattern within a given timeframe. Looking at the provided dataset, there are no significant outliers that can be observed as the rates tend to fluctuate within a relatively narrow range. This may imply that the market was generally stable during this period.

    All the analysis above is based solely on the data given and any external factors such as economic or political events which may influence the exchange rates have not been considered, as per the given instructions.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    Looking at the data, the AED exchange rate shows some level of volatility but overall, a rising trend can be observed. The rate began around 0.36761 and ended around 0.36894 within the data set. This suggests a slightly upward trend during the time span observed.

    Seasonality and Patterns

    In terms of seasonality and recurring patterns, it's difficult to conclusively identify these without further data, particularly on intra-day patterns. However, within the available data, no significant recurring patterns or seasonality trends are apparent. This means the changes in exchange rates could be more influenced by immediate market conditions and key events rather than time-based patterns.

    Outliers

    Despite the fluctuations, the exchange rate does not show any prominent outliers that significantly deviate from the overall trend. This suggests that the market has been relatively stable and significant events that might cause severe direct impact on the exchange rates have not occurred during the timeline of this dataset. Minor fluctuations are normal in any exchange rate movements as they are influenced by immediate market buy and sell orders.

    Note:

    This analysis is based purely on the numerical data provided. External factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports are not considered as per the instructions given. Also, no forecast for future rates is generated. For a more comprehensive and accurate analysis, these factors need to be considered since they can have significant implications on the exchange rates.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend in Exchange Rates

    The data spans a period within 24 hours. The exchange rate (AED) appears to have a slight upward trend in the first half of the given day, hitting the highest point at around 02:15:02. Following this, the rate declines slightly before stabilizing and remaining relatively flat for several hours. The rate then goes through some fluctuations with a slight increase around 07:00:02, then a significant decline is seen around 08:00:03. The rate sees slight fluctuations throughout the day but appears to generally decrease, with the day ending with a much lower rate than it started.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    With the data provided being only for a 24 hour period, it's difficult to identify any seasonal trend or recurring patterns. To properly identify such patterns, a larger dataset spanning weeks, months, or even years would be necessary. This would allow for a better understanding of recurring patterns by comparing the exchange rate changes at the same time across different days or same days across different weeks etc.

    Outliers

    Outliers are instances where the exchange rate significantly deviates from the norm. This could be due to various factors, including substantial economic news or erratic market behavior. In this case, it is challenging to identify specific outliers due to the short time period and relatively slight fluctuations in the exchange rates. However, the highest rate of 0.36837 at 03:55:02 and the lowest rate of 0.36756 at 23:15:02 could be considered as potential outliers as these rates deviate significantly from the mean rate of approximately 0.3679.

    Conclusion

    This analysis provides insights into the intra-day trend and fluctuations in the AED exchange rate over 24 hours. A longer time series would better reveal more distinct patterns, seasonality, and outliers. For a comprehensive and accurate analysis, additional data, such as market indicators and economic news, could also be included.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    An preliminary analysis of the data suggests that the overall trend of the exchange rates (AED) over the given time duration seems to fluctuate within a certain range. The exchange rates notably do not remain stable for the most part and there seem to be changes, though these aren't drastically high. The AED exchange rate experiences some movement managing to rise and fall within a confined spectrum. The rate starts at around 0.3668 on 2024-01-26 and its latest value on 2024-02-23 is around 0.3675. Even though there are some fluctuations, the overall trend seems to be somewhat stable with minor fluctuations.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    With regard to the aspect of seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates, it seems a concrete pattern isn't discernible with the current data. The rates vary in quite an unpredictable way. To determine a solid recurring pattern or a seasonal effect, a further detailed analysis considering more factors or a longer duration of data might be needed. Nevertheless, there seem to be small oscillations in the data where the rate increases to a certain level before decreasing again, suggesting a possible intraday volatility pattern. A statistical/quantitative analysis might uncover a deeper insight.

    Noting Outliers in the Data

    Upon examining the data, there do not appear to be significant outliers where the exchange rate deviates heavily from its usual range. The values stay within a tight range of about 0.364 to 0.369. Nevertheless, performing a statistical test for the identification of outliers might provide a clearer answer as visual interpretation could be subjective.

    It's important to note that due to the limited data and non-inclusion of external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays or the release of key financial news and reports, these initial observations might not fully represent the patterns in the exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Overall Trend Analysis

    The overall trend shows that the exchange rate appears to be relatively stable. There are fluctuations in the value, but these changes are nominal and do not suggest any significant increase or decrease over the given time period. The value varies between approximately 0.366 and 0.368. This suggests that the exchange rate can be considered relatively consistent and stable during this time.

    2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Definitive seasonality or recurring patterns in the dataset are quite nuanced due to the stable nature of the exchange rate during this period. However, there seem to be minor fluctuations that may suggest minimal daily cyclic behavior. Further temporal pattern analysis or decomposing the time series might bring more insights in this regard.

    3. Outliers Analysis

    Given the range of the data, there don't seem to be any significant outliers. The exchange rate consistently stays within a tight range with only minor fluctuations. This suggests a lack of extreme events that significantly impacted the exchange rate during this specific time period.

    Please note that this initial analysis doesn't take into account possible external factors. Even though this analysis does not require factoring in externalities like market hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, these elements can significantly influence exchange rate movements and should be included in a more comprehensive and predictive analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis of AED Exchange Rate Time Series Data

    After conducting a comprehensive analysis of the time-series data provided, I can present the key insights as follows:

    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates:

    The provided timestamps span a 24-hour period. The AED exchange rates shown exhibit some degree of fluctuation over this period. At the start of the day at 00:00:02, the exchange rate began at 0.36703, and ended at 0.36762 at 14:55:01, demonstrating an overall slight increase in value.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns:

    Since the given dataset represents a single day's data, it's difficult to ascertain long-term seasonality or recurring patterns. Notwithstanding, within the day, a minor pattern can be observed. There seems to be a slight decrease in the exchange rate in the early hours of the day (01:05:02 - 02:05:02) and then a rising trend (02:25:02 - 03:40:02) followed by some decline (03:45:02 - 04:55:02) and then an upward trajectory (05:00:03 - 10:20:03). Afterwards, there's a downward trend (10:30:03 - 12:30:03). And then an outlying increase in the exchange rate is observed at 13:40:03.

    3. Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly:

    There are no significant fluctuations in the exchange rate within this 24-hour period that could be classified as outliers. The exchange rate appears to stay within a small range of around .0003 throughout the day, which is relatively stable and does not deviate significantly from the overall trend.

    Conclusion

    The exchange rate for AED on 2024-02-23 demonstrated slight variability within the day. The data showed a minor increase from the beginning to end of the day, but with a several small peaks and valleys throughout. This initial analysis could be expanded with additional data spanning weeks, months, or even years to better assess any long-term trends, seasonal patterns, or outliers.