Guarani Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The data provided shows a consistent exchange rate of 0.00019 over the observed period, suggesting a stable market with no significant increases or decreases in the exchange rate. This consistent rate indicates that the PYG currency exchange rate was stable and steady during this specific duration.

    2. Identifying Any Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    As the data series is entirely constant, it does not display any sign of seasonality or recurring patterns. Normally, this would be identified through cycles of increase and decrease in the exchange rate at regular intervals, but in this dataset, the rate remains entirely unchanged. Therefore, it's safe to conclude that there are no observable patterns or seasonality to be drawn from this data.

    3. Noting Any Outliers

    In this data set, there are no exchange rate outliers. This is because the exchange rate of PYG holds constant at 0.00019 throughout the entire time series data. Given that there are no fluctuations in the exchange rate, no sudden spikes or drops would count as outliers. Hence, this data is free from outliers.

    Generally, more dynamic trends, seasonality, or outliers can provide insightful data for predictive purposes or to gain deeper understanding of the factors influencing the exchange rate. However, given the constant rate presented in this dataset, such conclusions cannot be drawn.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rate

    Based on the dataset provided, the exchange rate from timestamp 2024-02-28 00:00:02 to 2024-02-28 23:55:02 has remained constant at 0.00019. There's no noticeable increase or decrease in the PYG exchange rate during this timeframe. The rate was consistent across the entire time series data, indicating a stable exchange rate environment. This result assumes that the given data is complete and correctly reflects the financial market conditions for the entire day.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Regarding the seasonality or recurring patterns in the dataset, given that the exchange rate is the same for every timestamp on February 28, 2024, no identifiable patterns or seasonal trends could be derived from this dataset. The exchange rate remained flat at 0.00019 throughout the day, devoid of any fluctuations or periodic changes that could indicate a particular pattern or recurring cycle.

    Identification of Outliers

    In the case of outliers, or data points that deviate significantly from the overall trend or expected value, this dataset does not indicate any such instance. All exchange rate values are consistent at 0.00019, hence, there's no noticeable deviation or abnormality in the data that can be categorized as an outlier. Consequently, the observed consistency throughout the dataset signifies that the exchange rate remained unaffected by significant market events or anomalies during the recorded day.

    Overall, the consistent exchange rate presents a scenario of stability in the value of the currency across a full day. Always remember that the context, broader time frames and other economic factors can radically change the analysis and conclusions.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    After analyzing the data provided, the exchange rate of PYG has remained constant throughout the period. No increase or decrease trend is detected based on the data. The exchange rate is consistently observed at 0.00019. This suggests the stability of this currency exchange rate in the timeframe mentioned.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, no distinct patterns are identified as the data provided displays a stable trend throughout different times. Normally, such patterns might be noticeable if the exchange rate fluctuates intermittently. However, in this case, the exchange rate remains static at 0.00019. Therefore, we cannot identify any day, week, or month-related recurring patterns or seasonality in this data set.

    Outliers in the Exchange Rates

    The concept of an outlier is best applicable in a data set where significant fluctuations or variations are present. However, upon examining the data set, since all the rates were the same (0.00019), it was not possible to detect any outliers. Outliers typically represent a data point that deviates significantly from other observations, which was not the case in this scenario.

    External Factors

    Note that, in general, the currency exchange rate can be influenced by many factors. They include interest rates, economic stability, inflation rates, political stability, and even occurrences of major global events. However, as instructed, this analysis restricts itself only to the given dataset and doesn't consider external influencers. Nonetheless, this constant value of exchange rates might imply that no major altering happened during this period spans on the factors that might typically influence the exchange market (or PYG currency).

    Conclusion

    • The PYG exchange rate consistently remained at 0.00019 throughout the provided dataset.
    • No identifiable seasonal or recurrent patterns were observed due to the constant nature of the data.
    • No outliers were noted in the provided data set.
    • This analysis is based solely on the provided data with no external factors considered.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    Looking at the data, it is apparent that the exchange rates have remained largely stable over the period shown. The exchange rate started at 0.00018 and remained at this level for a significant duration. The rate then increased slightly to 0.00019 for a brief time, before returning to 0.00018 afterwards. The pattern seems to repeat with the exchange rate intermittently increasing to 0.00019. Hence, the exchange rate appears to fluctuate around these two values without any clear increasing or decreasing trend.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    On the topic of seasonality or recurring patterns, there is no glaring pattern that can be readily identified from the data. The fluctuations between the exchange rate values of 0.00018 and 0.00019 seem to occur at irregular intervals rather than follow a predictable, cyclical pattern. Further in-depth analysis employing time-series methods may yield more insights on any subtle underlying seasonal effects.

    Outliers in the Exchange Rates

    Regarding outliers or significant deviations from the trend, again, the data does not suggest any such occurrences. The exchange rates are relatively stable and do not show any drastic spikes or drops that would indicate an outlier. It's important to note that this analysis is based on the available data. If one considers the external factors like global or local economic events, changes in monetary policy, macroeconomic reports, etc., then those might cause unexpected dramatic changes in the exchange rates which are not covered in this analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    After examining the dataset, it can be seen that the exchange rates are generally stable throughout the period under review. The exchange rate starts at a value of 0.00018, and although there is a slight increase to 0.00019 a number of times, the rate always reverts back to the original value. This constant reversion indicates a stationary and stable exchange rate. It is important to note that the fluctuations between the two values do not indicate a clear increasing or decreasing trend, but rather a stable exchange rate with slight fluctuations.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    From the data, it can be inferred that the exchange rate doesn't seem to have a clear seasonal or recurring pattern. The rate fluctuates slightly between two close values, but these changes do not appear to be linked to a specific time or period within the dataset. Rather, these fluctuations occur somewhat randomly throughout the entire period. Due to the stability of these rates and the absence of any noticeable trend, any increases or decreases can be seen to revert back to the median rate quite rapidly.

    3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

    In terms of outliers, the exchange rate dataset appears to have none. The exchange rates provided all sit within a very small range. There is no instance where the exchange rate dramatically increases or decreases beyond the established range of 0.00018 to 0.00019. This is further evidence of the exchange rate's stability during this time period. With such slight and temporary fluctuations, and constant reversion to the median value, it would appear that there are no significant deviations in the dataset that would suggest the presence of outliers.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overview of the Data and the Trend

    The data provided captures the PYG exchange rate at different timestamps throughout the day on February 23, 2024. These timestamps are spaced at approximately 5-minute intervals, offering a highly detailed view of the exchange rate fluctuations throughout a single day. The data doesn't appear to show any major trend as the exchange rate remains largely stable throughout. It starts at 0.00018 and there are a few points where it reaches 0.00019 then falls back to 0.00018 again.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Considering the short duration of the data (one day), it's difficult to establish any clear seasonality or recurring patterns within the data. The rate remains generally stable around 0.00018, except for a few instances where it spikes to 0.00019 before reverting back to the more common rate of 0.00018. Based on this day's data, we can't establish any seasonal pattern. Nevertheless, a higher-frequency analysis (e.g. hourly, weekly, or monthly) could be required using a larger dataset to uncover these patterns.

    Outliers and Significant Divergences

    The exchange rate data appears quite uniform with minor fluctuations. There aren't any significant outliers based on the dataset provided for this single day. The shifts to 0.00019, whilst higher than the typical rate, aren't dramatically different and thus wouldn't typically be classified as outliers in a financial context. They seem to be part of the general fluctuation rather than significant divergences that could cause concern.

    To conclude, the PYG exchange rate on February 23, 2024, exhibits minor volatility throughout the day, oscillating between 0.00018 and 0.00019 with no significant outliers or strong trends indicating a sustained increase or decrease. Instead, the rate appears to revert to maintain around a mean value. Market conditions, trading volumes, and macroeconomic indicators can also impact the exchange rate and may be worth investigating for a longer-term or more nuanced analysis.