Guarani Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The series of exchange rates for PYG remain constant throughout the given timestamp. The rate is maintained at 0.00018 without any increase or decrease. Thus, the overall trend of the exchange rate is flat and stable over this period.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in the Exchange Rates

It is insignificant to consider any seasonality or recurring patterns in the provided dataset as there is no variation in the exchange rates throughout the dataset.

3. Outliers in the Dataset

Outliers in a dataset usually represent an observation that appears to deviate distinctly from other members of the sample. However, in our provided time series data, there has been no change in the exchange rates, implying there aren't any outliers present in the data since no exchange rate value deviates from the constant rate of 0.00018.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The given dataset presents information on the PYG exchange rates from 00:00:02 of April 24, 2024, to 23:55:02 of the same day. Throughout the period, the PYG rate remains stable at 0.00019 until approximately 06:50:02 when it shifts to 0.00018, at which point it remains constant for the rest of the observed day. This signifies that the exchange rates were generally stable throughout the day with just one significant drop in the exchange rate observed.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

With the data limited to just a single day, discerning long-term seasonality or recurring patterns is not feasible. Moreover, considering the apparent stability of the exchange rates throughout this particular day, no recurrence or notable pattern is detectable in this specific dataset.

Noting Outliers

Given the consistency of the exchange rates throughout the day, there are no apparent outliers during this time frame. The drop from 0.00019 to 0.00018 is the only significant shift, and it doesn't meet the definition of an outlier as it remains consistent in the remaining time series data. An outlier, by definition, would be a solitary significant shift that doesn't fit with the rest of the data, and we don't see that occurrence in this dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall trend of the exchange rates

Analysing the timestamp data against the foreign exchange rates (PYG), it's apparent that the value mostly fluctuates between 0.00019 and 0.00018. There is a general decline around the period 2024-04-23 02:30:02 until 07:40:03, where the rate drops to 0.00018. This value then stabilizes for a considerable period, indicating a downward shift in the exchange rate during this timeframe. The rate then gets back to 0.00019 around 20:05:02 and keeps this level until the end of the provided period.

Seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

While more data would be needed to make conclusive statements about seasonality, with the dataset provided, there are no immediate indications of cyclical or seasonal patterns. The exchange rates consistently stay around the 0.00019 and 0.00018 mark with a very low level of volatility. The downward shift around 02:30:02 and the climb back up around 20:05:02 are noteworthy events but do not necessarily imply a recurring pattern. More data running across multiple days would be needed to confirm or deny this potential pattern.

Identification of Outliers

Given the small range of variability, i.e., between 0.00019 and 0.00018, there are no noticeable outliers within the provided dataset. All recorded exchange rates huddle close to the mean, indicating consistently low volatility during this specific time period.

Additional Notes

While this dataset does not explicitly indicate any specific events or show the effects of the opening/closing of markets or the release of key financial news reports (as these factors have been disregarded in this analysis), the analysis does suggest a fairly stable market for the PYG currency during the period shown. It further stresses the importance of looking at more data over a longer period to understand cyclical patterns better and locate potential outliers more decisively.

Summary of Last Month

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Looking at the provided dataset, we can make several observations:

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

The data given is about the currency exchange rate from April 22, 2024. Each rate presented represents the price of an asset at a five-minute interval. Essentially, the given exchange rate (0.00019 and 0.00018) remains stable for most of the time. However, there's a slight decrease observed, changing the rate from 0.00019 to 0.00018.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

Time series analysis for such a small duration and without significant data fluctuations doesn't clearly indicate any form of seasonality or recurring patterns. Regularly, seasonality is implied over more extended periods such as months or years where clear patterns might emerge, such as peak and off-peak seasons. Therefore, concluding with such a small dataset could lead to incorrect generalizations. Yet, with the data given, no seasonality or recurring pattern is observed.

3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

From the dataset, no significant outliers or volatility can be identified. The currency rate appears rather stable with minimal variance. The variations between 0.00019 and 0.00018 are standard and might be influenced by market demand-supply mechanisms.

In conclusion, due to the very short period (only one day) and the stable data given (two minorly different rates), it's hard to determine a clear trend, seasonality, or to pinpoint outliers. For a comprehensive forecast model, more extensive and varying data would be necessary.

Summary of Last Week

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates:

Upon analysing the dataset, it is observed that the exchange rate of PYG largely remains stable throughout the given period. Although there is a slight increase from 0.00018 to 0.00019 upon certain instances, the changes are quite marginal. The overall trend, therefore, signifies a stable exchange rate barring some insignificant fluctuations.

2. Identifying Any Seasonality or Recurring Patterns:

Considering the given dataset, it would be premature to detect any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates. The overall exchange rate maintains its poise across the entire timeframe, which inhibits the scope of identifying any seasonal variations. Furthermore, the dataset encompasses only a narrow timeframe and recurring patterns typically require lengthier time periods to become evident.

3. Noting Any Outliers:

Given the stability of the exchange rates, the dataset does not exhibit any noticeable outliers. The exchange rate fluctuates minimally in the range of 0.00018 to 0.00019, which is quite a narrow bounds. In this case, we could not identify any significant instances where the exchange rate drastically deviates from this observed range. Therefore, there are no apparent outliers detected in the dataset.

Final Remarks

The data provided gives a snapshot of a very stable exchange rate for the specific period observed. No significant variations or patterns are detected within this dataset. For a more precise and comprehensive analysis, it would be helpful to have a more extended timeframe and perhaps a larger fluctuation in the data. It is important to note that while the historical data looks quite stable, exchange rates can be influenced by various factors including economic events, changes in supply and demand, among others. The presence of these factors can cause future rates to deviate from historical trends.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

From a close examination of the dataset, it is noticeable that the exchange rate (PYG) remains consistent throughout the given timeframe. That is, the data does not show any significant rise, fall, or fluctuation in the exchange rate. The consistent value presented by this dataset is 0.00019 for the entire period.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

Given the fact that the PYG exchange rate remains constant throughout the entire dataset, no discernible seasonality or recurring patterns can be detected. The data may suggest a stage of 'steady-state' for the currency exchange market during this time.

3. Noting any outliers

In this dataset, there are no outliers because no significant deviation from the steady value of 0.00019 is observed. The dataset shows no instance where the exchange rate differs significantly from the nearly constant value.

Please note that this analysis is solely based on the dataset provided and does not consider any external factors which may influence the exchange rates, such as: market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Neither does it generate any forecast for future rates.

In conclusion, this time-series data for the PYG exchange rate consistently stands at 0.00019 over the examined period, with no clear evidence of a trend, seasonality, or outliers.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Based on the provided data, the PYG exchange rate remains stable throughout the given period. The rate persistently sits at 0.00019 with no notable fluctuation from 19th April 2024 beginning from 00:00:02 and persisting through the last timestamp given at 14:55:01. This indicates a notably stable period for this particular exchange rate.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns

In the context of the provided dataset, there appears to be no discernible seasonality or recurring patterns. This is due to the uniformity of the exchange rates at each timestamp, with no observable rises or drops occurring at regular intervals. With a fluctuating dataset, patterns may emerge depending on the time of day, the day of the week, or the month of the year. However, with a consistently stable rate as shown here, the opportunity to identify such patterns is minimal.

3. Outliers

• The data reveals that there are no outliers. The value remains at a constant 0.00019 for every recorded timestamp, indicating a period of uncharacteristic stability for the exchange rate. No single data points deviate from this rate to a significant degree, if at all.

4. Possible Impact of Not Considering External Factors

While the analysis does not take into account market opening/closing hours, holidays, weekends, or the impact of key financial news and reports, it's worth noting that these factors could potentially drive significant changes in exchange rates. Even though we have not considered these, in this particular case, there seems to be no significant change in the rate, hinting at a rather undisturbed market environment, or a larger trend in play, during the given time period.