Rufiyaa Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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    Data Understanding

    The provided data represents time-stamped exchange rates for some currency compared to the Maldivian Rufiyaa (MVR). The date and time extend from the 29th of Feb, 2024 to the same date, covering intervals from 5 to 55 minutes.

    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    During the entire data's timeframe, the MVR exchange rate showed a generally stable trend. The rate fluctuated between the maximum value of 0.08843 and the minimum value of 0.08771. However, the rate remained mostly near the mean value of roughly 0.08813, showing very subtle differences over the examined period.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    As for recurring patterns or seasonality, it requires data spanning over longer time frames, ideally covering multiple years, to detect valid seasonal patterns or trends. However, based on this single day data, there are no significant recurring patterns observable. Any movement doesn't seem to follow a particular time-related pattern and instead, the rates fluctuated in a relatively random manner.

    Outliers Detection

    Assessing the outliers depending on the standard deviation, any values that lie beyond two standard deviations from the mean could be considered potential outliers. In this data set, no such value that could significantly deviate from the average range is noticeable. The data, therefore, doesn't seem to contain any significant outliers in the given timeframe.

    Please note that a more accurate and comprehensive analysis could be provided if data covering a more extended period or with more variables like market conditions, world events were available.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend

    After carefully analyzing the data points you provided, we notice a slight, but noticeable upward trend in the MVR exchange rate. That is, the exchange rate is gradually increasing over time. The lowest timestamped rate is 0.08768 and the highest is 0.08849. However, the increase is very subtle, suggesting a relative state of stability in the exchange rate over the period shown. Nevertheless, a careful investigation of this data tells us that even slight variations in such rates can lead to huge financial implications due to the volume of transactions involved.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    When monitoring the exchange rates on a shorter basis (like minute to minute), seasonality or recurring patterns can be less apparent. This is because such patterns generally appear over more extended periods (like months or years). However, upon examination of this dataset, no clear pattern of seasonality or recurrence has been found. The fluctuations are generally within the shortest decimal values and don't display a recurring or predictable pattern.

    Outliers Analysis

    Outliers, or data points that significantly deviate from the trend, can be crucial to understanding the exceptional circumstances or events (like an influential macroeconomic announcement). In this provided data set, there don't appear to be any significant outliers. The exchange rate's fluctuations all fall within similar ranges and don't deviate drastically from the established values. However, the lowest rate of 0.08768 and the highest rate of 0.08849 could be considered mild outliers, deviating slightly from the general exchange rate stability.

    In conclusion, while this data shows a slight upward trend in the MVR exchange rate with possible minor outliers, it does not exhibit noticeable seasonality or recurring patterns. However, constant monitoring and analysis would be essential to detect any changing patterns or trends promptly in the future.

Summary of Yesterday

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Summary of Last Month

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    Based on your provided dataset, let's analyze its key characteristics:

    Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The overall trend in the exchange rates appears to be relatively stable. The highest data point is 0.08813, and the lowest is 0.08733, while most data points are typically in the 0.0877 range. This suggests only minor fluctuations in the value of the currency throughout this period.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    In terms of seasonality or repetitive patterns, it's difficult to see any clear trends from this dataset, given that data is only provided for a single day. Determining seasonality generally requires a more longitudinal dataset, covering at least one full seasonal cycle. Additionally, the relatively stable fluctuations in this dataset do not suggest any immediate cyclic or seasonal patterns.

    Noting Any Outliers

    There are a few instances where the exchange rate peaks or drops significantly, relative to the data around it. Particularly, at times, the value spikes to the 0.088 level or dips to the 0.08733 level. These are somewhat significant deviations from the predominant range and can be considered as potential outliers.

    Remember this analysis is based only on the observed changes of the exchange rates and does not take into account any external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports.

Summary of Last Week

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    Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    From an examination of the available data, it appears that the exchange rate of MVR remained relatively stable over the span of this dataset. Despite periods of minor fluctuation, the overall trend does not indicate a consistent increase or decrease. It's important to consider that given the stable nature of this exchange rate data, slight variations in rate could have proportionately larger impacts than they would in a more volatile market.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    In this dataset, no pronounced seasonality or recurring patterns are discernable. This is not unexpected given the relatively short period over which the data was collected. Seasonality trends are more common to capture over larger spans of time, often years or quarters. In this dataset, the data only spans a few months, which is a relatively short time frame for the detection of clear seasonality or recurring patterns, particularly in foreign exchange markets.

    Noting Outliers

    In terms of outliers, since the exchange rate has minor variations and has remained mostly stable, there are no significant deviations. Outliers in such data are typically deemed as such due to their significant diversions from the average or trend figure. As such, they often commonly occur in more volatile markets rather than stable ones, as the latter generates fewer instances of such drastic deviations. In this data, no instances of such significant change are present.

    Final Remarks

    In conclusion, it is important to note that the stability of an exchange rate is or isn't considered beneficial per se; its implications can vary largely depending on external factors and scenarios not presented within this dataset. As always, any analysis of financial data, including exchange rates, should be considered within the image of broader economic factors and contexts.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    The following information will be a brief analysis of the provided time-series data.

    Overall Trend

    Based on the dataset provided, which covers from February 19 to February 23 in 2024, the MVR exchange rates have shown a relatively stable trend. The value fluctuates within a narrow range between approximately 0.0872 and 0.0879. The initial rate is 0.08749 on February 19 and it closes at 0.08765 on February 23, representing a slight overall increase. However, several ups and downs are visible during this period which signifies a relatively neutral trend in the exchange rate rather than a clear bullish or bearish trend.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Regarding the seasonality or recurring patterns, there is not enough data here to draw solid conclusions about any weekly, monthly, or yearly patterns. Normally, for seasonal trends to be evident, we might require at least two to three complete cycles of data. Nevertheless, within the given timeframe, the data doesn't show any clear daily patterns. The exchange rate does not consistently increase or decrease at specific hours of the day.

    Outliers Observation

    Regarding outlier detection, the dataset appears to be mostly consistent without any dramatic swings or jumps in rates that might signify an outlier. All values are closely clustered around less than 1% of total variation, which signifies that during this period, there was no abnormal movement that can be classified as an outlier.

    Please note that this analysis is purely based on the numerical data provided and did not consider external factors such as market events, news or other variables that may impact the exchange rates. It is also important to consider that forex exchange rates are extremely volatile and influenced by a multitude of factors which are not included in this dataset. Expand your data collection period to reveal more about the trends and seasons of this exchange rate behavior if it's necessary.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    At first glance, the MVR exchange rates provided in the dataset appear to be relatively consistent. The figures range from around 0.08713 up to around 0.08779. Over the course of the entire time period, there is a minimal fluctuation of 0.00066, indicating a generally stable exchange rate. Therefore, it is reasonable to conclude that, overall, the exchange rate remains mostly stable throughout the displayed timeframe.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    The data is not sufficient to draw a conclusion about possible seasonality or recurring patterns with absolute certainty. The data points provided are for a limited time frame on a single day, which is not indicative of the larger picture. Generally, for understanding seasonality patterns in such data, we would be analyzing data trends over multiple years and looking out for patterns in different seasons or quarters. However, within the given time frame, no observable recurring patterns or seasonal changes in exchange rates can be discerned.

    Outliers Analysis

    Given the small range of exchange rates (0.08713 to 0.08779), it is unlikely that there are any major outliers. It appears that there are some fluctuations in the exchange rates that potentially deviate from a consistent trend, but these changes are relatively minor. For instance, there is a noticeable drop in exchange rate to 0.08713 at timestamp '2024-02-23 06:55:02', which is marginally lower than the other rates around this time but later the rate recovers back. However, this deviation is not significant enough to be classified as an outlier. To note, without a designated threshold it would be difficult to definitively label a point as an outlier.

    Note that this analysis is based on the limited data available and does not take into account external factors which could have large impacts on exchange rates, such as changes in market conditions, geopolitical events or the announcement of key financial news and reports.