Rufiyaa Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the overall trend

Upon inspecting the given dataset, there is no strong upward or downward trend visible in the MVR exchange rates. The values appear to fluctuate around the range of 0.08830 to 0.08888, which suggests relatively stable exchange rates throughout the given timestamp. There are small variations in the data; however, these changes do not constitute a specific directional trend in the long term.

Identifying Recurring Patterns and Seasonality

As far as seasonality is concerned, no clear seasonal pattern can be discerned from the provided data. Given that the data reflects exchange rates evolving over a single day, one might not expect noticeable seasonality. Intraday changes in exchange rates can be influenced by a host of different factors including, but not restricted to, variations in trading volumes and volatility. These factors do not generally follow a seasonal pattern.

Outliers

The dataset does not appear to contain any significant outliers. While there are occasional peaks and troughs in the exchange rates, these fit within the general trend of the data and do not greatly deviate from the average. It's important to note that in financial data, slight upticks or downticks are common and integral to the nature of such data; they do not necessarily constitute outliers.

Consideration of External Influences

While not explicitly requested in the goal, it is important to be aware that financial data - including exchange rates - are subject to a variety of external influences, including but not limited to market open/close times, weekends/holidays, and the release of significant financial news and reports. Although we did not consider these factors in our analysis, understanding these can be crucial in interpreting fluctuations in exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The data points provided range from 0.08839 to 0.0888. This indicates a very slight increase in the exchange rate over the period of time considered, suggesting that the currency is experiencing a minor appreciation. However, the rates fluctuate within a very narrow band so it can also be interpreted as relatively stable for the given timeframe.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

From the presented data, it's not possible to definitively identify any form of seasonality or a recurring pattern. The variations in the exchange rates occur within a minimal range and don't exhibit signs of regular increase or decrease periods which would signify seasonality. It is important to note that a larger dataset could afford us greater insight into possible patterns.

Outliers or Significant Differences

No significant outliers or instances where the exchange rate deviates excessively from the trend have been observed in the provided data. The exchange rates exhibit minor variations but remain relatively consistent throughout, and substantial differences are not apparent. Any slight fluctuations can be attributed to standard market instability.

Influence of External Factors

While specific events or external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports can affect exchange rates, these factors were not considered in this analysis due to the instruction provided.

Forecast for Future Rates

Although we are not generating any forecasts for future rates in this analysis, it is important to understand that predicting future behavior in financial markets is inherently uncertain. Any trends observed in the past may not necessarily continue into the future, and external factors can have a significant impact. This analysis is purely based on historical data and does not account for potential future changes in market conditions.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Upon examination of the provided dataset, I have determined that the general trend of MVR (Maldivian Rufiyaa) exchange rates fluctuates between 0.08833 and 0.0887 over a 24-hour timeframe. Therefore, the rate remains relatively stable during the given period. However, it is necessary to note there are some exchanges rate slightly rising from 0.08861 at the start of the period to 0.0884 at the end of the period.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In regard to seasonality or recurring patterns, due to the granularity of data provided, it's challenging to pinpoint any significant seasonal pattern in the exchange rate within this single day. However, consistent recurring patterns may be observed when analyzing data over similar time periods on multiple days or longer periods.

Noting any Outliers

The data seems to be consistently fluctuating in the mentioned range with no evident outliers. However, it dipped to its lowest at 0.08833 at around 20:20 and reached its highest at 0.0887 at approximately 04:20. Considering the entire data set, these instances do not significantly deviate from the established trend and thus, cannot be confidently classified as outliers.

Conclusion

In sum, the MVR exchange rates for the given period are relatively steady with slight fluctuations, indicating a stable market. Irregularities or large variations may indicate external influences or major shifts in the economy, but such signs are not evident from this dataset. Although this analysis is isolated to the data provided and does not consider potential anomalies and fluctuations that may occur over weekends, holidays, or following financial news and reports.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

From an overview of the given time series data, the exchange rates of MVR appear relatively stable over the period shown. There don't seem to be significant fluctuations with only minimal increase or decrease, typically within two decimal points. Instead, the values continuously oscillate between 0.0885 and 0.0889 for most of the period; hence, it can be concluded that the exchange rate remained remarkably consistent.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

With respect to seasonality or recurring patterns within these exchange rates, the data doesn't display any clear cyclic or seasonal patterns. However, a detailed quantitative analysis could reveal micro-patterns that are not immediately obvious from a general observation.

Notable Outliers

An examination of the data set does not sight any significant outliers. In other words, there are no instances where the exchange rate differs drastically from the overall observed trend. The MVR exchange rate seems to remain within a tight range and follow a stable pattern with no pronounced anomalies.

Additional Observations

Please note that this analysis focused solely on the provided time-series dataset and did not consider any external factors such as market opening/closing times, weekends/holidays, or the release of pertinent financial news and reports. Additionally, it's important to mention that this analysis was not intended to generate any forecasts for future MVR exchange rates.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The dataset provided indicates fluctuations in the exchange rate (MVR) over time. From an initial glance, there doesn't appear to be a clear upward or downward trend. Instead, the exchange rate tends to fluctuate within a narrow range from around 0.087 to 0.089 from the start to end of the dataset. Therefore, considered overall, the exchange rate can be considered relatively stable for this particular time period. In addition, there is no noticeable sustained period where the exchange rate is exclusively increasing or decreasing significantly.

2. Identifying Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Regarding any seasonality or recurring patterns, the dataset doesn't provide a full calendar year of data, which makes it difficult to determine any such patterns conclusively. However, within the available data, there doesn't appear to be clear seasonality or time-based patterns. Instead, fluctuations in the exchange rate seem to happen relatively randomly without a defined pattern. Therefore, significant care should be taken before any assumption concerning predicted patterns or cycles in the exchange data.

3. Noting Outliers and Abnormal Instances

In terms of outliers or significant deviations from the general rate, there appear to be several instances where the exchange rate reaches high or low points. For example, the highest exchange rate of about 0.0892 occurs at the timestamp 2024-04-12 14:00:01, while one of the lowest values of 0.087 occurs at 2024-04-04 08:00:03. These deviations, however, don't appear to stray significantly from the range within which the exchange rates generally fluctuate and thus can be considered as part of the typical volatility of the exchange rates rather than extraordinary outliers.

In sum, the exchange rates appear moderately stable with several points of fluctuations but without a clear upward or downward trend or noticeable seasonality. Extreme caution should be taken before making any financial decisions based on these observations, as market behaviours are affected by a multitude of various factors not directly observable in the dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The overall trend of the exchange rates is relatively stable. The biggest change of the MVR exchange rate occurs between the timestamps '2024-04-15 07:00:02' to '2024-04-15 10:00:03', where the rate increases from 0.08898 to 0.08915. However, these changes are minimal and don't indicate a significant trend either towards an increase or decrease overall.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

No obvious seasonality or recurring patterns are discernible in this dataset. This could be due to the small range of the exchange rate or the time frame which may not be enough to capture periodic fluctuations. Further, detailed analysis or larger dataset might be required to identify the seasonality or recurring patterns more accurately.

Outliers Observation

There are no clear outliers in the dataset as the exchange rate remains relatively consistent throughout the period. It should be noted that without knowledge of any specific predictive factors that would be expected to influence the exchange rate, it is difficult to define what constitutes an outlier in this dataset. However, with the given information, no unexpected spikes or drops in the exchange rate have been identified.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall trend of the exchange rates

By observing the given dataset, it is deduced that the exchange rates do not show any significant and consistent upward or downward inclination. However, mild fluctuations are observed throughout the period evidence. Still, nonetheless, the exchange rate predominantly hovers around 0.0889 to 0.0891. Therefore, stating that the exchange rate remained relatively stable over the time provided would be an accurate account of the trend.

Seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

Seasonality or recurring patterns in time series data involve regular, predictable patterns that recur with calendar cycles. In the given dataset, no conspicuous recurring patterns or seasonality is observed that can be marked or pointed out. The variations appear more random than cyclic or seasonal.

Outliers in the dataset

An outlier is an observation that lies an abnormal distance from other values in the dataset. In terms of the dataset provided, the MVR exchange rate paintings stay pretty close to their mean value and do not exhibit any drastic swings that could be labelled as outliers. The rates note an overall gentle variation throughout the given time, and instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the average are significantly missing.