Peso Convertible Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Data Overview

The data represents the timestamped changes in the CUC exchange rates. The timestamps range from April 25th 00:00:02 (2024) to April 25th 23:55:02 (2024). This data covers a whole day.

Trend Analysis

Looking at the CUC exchange rates, there is a noteworthy downward trend throughout the day. The rate starts at around 1.36908 at the beginning of the day and ends up at around 1.36539. We observe some minor fluctuations throughout the day, but the overall trend shows a depreciation of the CUC exchange rate across this single day.

Identifying Seasonal Patterns

Given the data is for a single day, it's challenging to identify any yearly or monthly seasonality. However, looking at hourly data, we can see some recurring patterns. For instance, there are slight increments in the rate during some parts of the day (around 08:00, 14:00, and 22:00). However, let's note that we need data for long time periods to make sure about these patterns.

Looking for Outliers

At first glance, one noticeable peak of 1.37265 occurs around 08:15. This is significantly higher than both its preceding and succeeding rates and could potentially be an outlier. There also seems to be a sharp drop of rate to about 1.3658 at around 14:05. However, to ascertain whether these points are true outliers, we would need to apply statistical outlier detection methods or use visual faciliation such as boxplots.

Key Insights

• The general trend over the day is a decrease in the CUC exchange rate.
• There are minor upward fluctuations throughout the day, particularly around 08:00, 14:00, and 22:00.
• These patterns, however, need to be validated with a larger dataset encompassing multiple days or months.
• There are potential outliers in the dataset that need further investigation, particularly the rapid fluctuation rates around 08:15 and 14:05.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analysis of exchange rate trend

Upon analyzing the available dataset, it was noted that the exchange rate tends to fluctuate over a certain period. In general, the rate was found to progressively increase from approximately 1.36655 to eventually reaching 1.37244 before taking a dip and rising again to 1.37215. Post this high, the exchange rate gradually decreased, entering a period of reduced rates with a low point of 1.36916, before a slight increase to 1.36919. As such, the trend suggests that the rates do not maintain a consistent pattern of increase or decrease, but rather a cycle of increases followed by decreases over this period.

Seasonality in the exchange rates

As a review of the exchange rate's seasonality, the dataset reveals no clear repeated or cyclical pattern. While there are instances of similar exchange rates at different points in time, these instances are not repetitive or occur at regular intervals which would signify a seasonal pattern. Therefore, there is no notable seasonality in these exchange rates as per the available dataset.

Notable outliers within the dataset

An analysis of the provided dataset did not reveal any significant outliers. Most changes in the exchange rates were gradual and did not demonstrate any drastic or unexpected changes that would be classified as outliers. However, the dataset shows small fluctuations in rates within short periods, but these changes are not significantly large enough to be considered outliers. They are instead indicative of the natural fluctuations observed in exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding The Overall Trend

Looking at the given data, I observe that the exchange rates slightly fluctuated throughout the day. The rate started at approximately 1.36985, reached its high at 1.37135, and closed at 1.36652. Despite the slight ups and downs, there does not appear to be a definite increasing or decreasing overall trend for this particular day; instead, the rates mostly ranged within a certain range (approximately 1.365 to 1.371). This observation aligns with the nature of currency exchange rates, which tend to fluctuate depending on various factors such as supply and demand in the market.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

As for seasonality or recurring patterns, it’s challenging to spot any clear patterns based on this one-day dataset. Typically, analysis of recurring patterns or seasonality would require a longer period, potentially covering weeks, months, or years. That being said, I did notice some instances where the rates consistently slightly increased or decreased within short periods (e.g., five to fifteen minutes). More data across multiple days at the same times could help determine whether these are regular patterns or mere coincidences.

3. Outliers

Regarding outliers, the dataset provided does not seem to include extreme outliers where the exchange rate differs significantly from the general rates observed. The minor fluctuations are normal in currency exchange rate data, reflecting the dynamic and constantly changing nature of financial markets. It is however crucial to note that this analysis is based on the one-day dataset provided, and studying a longer period might reveal some outliers linked to specific events or unusual market conditions.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Looking at the data, it appears that the exchange rate for the CUC fluctuates quite significantly throughout the period provided. Initially, it starts at 1.37279 and ends at 1.36984, indicating a slight decrease over time. There are many spikes and dips in the exchange rates, but the overall trend appears to be fairly stable, with mostly minor shifts in either direction.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

At first glance, there does not appear to be any clear seasonality or recurring patterns in the data. The fluctuations seem to occur fairly randomly. However, it's worth noting that due to the limited scope of the data provided, any potential patterns may be overlooked, and a broader time series data could potentially reveal more detailed or nuanced trends.

Notable Outliers

The data contains many fluctuations, but there aren't any consistent extreme outliers. There are a few instances of more substantial spikes or dips like the drop to 1.36883 and the high of 1.37493, but these do not appear to occur regularly or in a pattern. It's possible that these fluctuations could be linked to specific market events or news, but without information on the context and factors in play at these times, it's impossible to say for sure.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend

The overall trend of the CUC exchange rate seems to be showing a moderate increase over the specified time period. Starting from 1.3563 on 2024-03-22, it rises to 1.37956 on 2024-04-19. However, this rise is not constant and contains several fluctuating occurrences. Notably, the rate underwent a major lift between the observations on 2024-04-10 and 2024-04-12, showing an intense spikey behavior. Immediately following this, it dropped slightly, but remained on the higher side throughout the rest observations.

2. Identifying Seasonality

Given the short and diverse time period, it is difficult to definitively identify any recurring or seasonal behavior in this dataset. However, some daily fluctuations in the CUC exchange rate can be observed. The rates seem to have a small-scale cycling behavior within each day, with the value falling and rising at semi-regular intervals. This suggests a possible daily pattern in the exchange rate shifts. However, this would need to be confirmed with further analysis and a larger dataset.

3. Noteworthy Outliers

The most significant outlier in this dataset appears to be observed on 2024-04-10. The CUC exchange rate jumped from 1.35581 to 1.36482 within a couple of hours, marking a sudden, substantially large increase. This increase was followed by a steep climb, spiking to 1.369 on the same day. This unusual surge differentiates these observations from the overall moderate increment pattern.

It's important to note that without knowledge of relevant context, such as major financial events or changes in monetary policy that may have influenced the exchange rate, it is difficult to ascertain the cause of these outliers.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Based on the provided dataset, the overall trend of the exchange rates (CUC) appears to be relatively stable with slight fluctuations. There are points where the rate increases slightly, however it quickly returns to a level similar to the baseline. The rate starts at 1.3747 on 2024-04-15 01:00:02 and ends at 1.37415 on 2024-04-19 13:00:02. The slight decrease in the rate over the period indicates a very slow downward trend, although many fluctuations occurred in between.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

Within the limitations of the available data, there does not appear to be a noticeable seasonality in the exchange rates. The rates fluctuate throughout each day, with no apparent repetitive pattern such as a specific time when the rate consistently rises or falls. To more accurately identify any potential seasonal patterns, a longer time series data spanning over several months or years would be required.

3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

There are a few instances of relatively large changes in the exchange rate, where the rate significantly increases or decreases within a short timeframe. For example, on 2024-04-15 from 09:00:03 to 10:00:03, the rate jumped from 1.37438 to 1.37685. However, these instances do not seem to be outliers as they do not deviate excessively from the overall trend and these changes occurred within the normal range of fluctuation present in the dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The data set shows that the overall trend in the exchange rates is moderately volatile. The rate trends began at around 1.37786 initially and ended at around 1.37518. There is a substantial amount of fluctuation in between. However, if we look closely, we observe a slight overall depreciation in exchange rates. Consequently, the rates don't seem to have a grand scale increase or decrease and appear relatively stable over time.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Upon carefully examining the data, no clear pattern or seasonality is distinctly recognizable in the changes of exchange rates. The dataset spans a total timeframe of about 14 hours, and within this, the exchange rates continually fluctuate demonstrating no particular pattern. There doesn't appear to be a regular moment within this period where the exchange rate consistently goes up or down. Since the dataset only encompasses a limited timeframe within a single day, it's hard to determine ongoing recurring patterns or seasonality for longer periods with the information provided.

Outliers or Unusual Instances

Given the data, there aren't noticeable instances where the exchange rate dramatically differs from the established trend. Despite some level of volatility, the exchange rates remain relatively within the same range, with the highest recorded rate being 1.37867 and the lowest being 1.37275. No extreme spikes or drops in rates are observed, indicating that all the rates are within a robust trend range and, therefore, there are no major outliers.