Jamaican Dollar Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

An initial glance at the data indicates a mostly stable exchange rate with minor reductions, as we progressed through the timeline. The exchange rate appears to start at 0.0088 and seems to steadily decrease towards 0.00876. However, it's worth noting that this variation is quite minor and generally, the exchange rate can be deemed fairly stable over the period in question.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

In the dataset, there doesn't seem to be a clear seasonality or recurring pattern. Due to the steady nature of the exchange rate over this specific time period, it's difficult to establish if there is a certain time of the day, or specific days when the exchange rate significantly increases or decreases. Therefore, no clear seasonality pattern can be deduced from only this dataset.

3. Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

Reviewing the time-series data, the exchange rates are relatively stable and present very little fluctuation. Considering that the fractions of fluctuation are quite small, we can conclude that there are no significant outliers in this dataset. All values appear to be within a reasonable range of each other and no sudden spikes or drops are seen that would suggest an outlier or a significant deviation from the expected trend or pattern.

In summary, the exchange rate appears to be fairly stable over the period, there is no clear seasonality or recurring patterns that can be formed from this dataset, and no significant outliers were detected.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

After analyzing the given time-series data for the JMD exchange rate, it can be seen that the exchange rate exhibits minute fluctuations but primarily stays within a narrow range; specifically, values tend to fluctuate between 0.00879 and 0.00884. The data does not show a clear increasing or decreasing trend over the given period. The exchange rate is relatively stable, with only slight variations occurring throughout the dataset.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

Given the relatively stable nature of the data, no obvious seasonality or recurring pattern can be identified in the change of exchange rates. The JMD exchange rate appears to fluctuate randomly within the aforementioned narrow range. Considering the duration and frequency of the provided data, there might not be enough variation or a long enough timeframe to discern a clear seasonal pattern or trend. More data and possibly over a more extended period may provide more insights into any potential seasonality.

3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

In this data set, there are few, if any, significant outliers. The rate mainly oscillates between 0.00879 and 0.00884. There's minimal deviation from this range, indicating a low incidence of outliers in the dataset. However, it's important to remember that exchange rates can be volatile and subject to dramatic changes due to macroeconomic events or financial news. In this data set, such influences are not observable within the period analyzed.

In conclusion, the JMD exchange rate portrayed in this dataset has been fairly stable over the period, with minor upward or downward fluctuations within a limited range. No clear trends or seasonal patterns are evident, and outliers are infrequent. This could be evidence of a relatively stable market during this particular period of time.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Based on provided time-series data, the general trend is largely stable. For the better part of the timeline, the exchange rate varies between 0.0088 and 0.00883. However, a visible slight increase can be noted starting at timestamp 2024-04-23 20:05:02 where the rate goes up to 0.00883 and maintains this value till the end of the observed period. This increase, albeit minor, suggests some degree of appreciation in value.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

The data hints at low volatility, considering the exchange rate's minimal variation. The rate is primarily consistent with occasional slight fluctuations ranging from a minimum of 0.00879 to a maximum of 0.00883. There doesn't appear to be a discernible seasonal pattern or clear cycle within the given dataset indicating a recurring change in exchange rate over specific intervals. However, it is worth noting that currency exchange rates are usually influenced by numerous factors and hence would require long periods of data for any meaningful seasonality or trends to be evident.

Noting Outliers

An outlier in exchange rate data would typically be a significant jump or fall in currency value that deviates largely from the observed range. In this dataset, there were no notable outliers since the rate adhered closely to the range of 0.00879 to 0.00883 with minimal deviation. This points towards a fairly stable exchange rate throughout the entire period of observation.

Summary of Last Month

• Opening:
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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

The provided dataset suggests an overall relatively stable trend in the JMD exchange rate over the time period given. The value fluctuates slightly around 0.0088, with minor variations occurring throughout the period observed. However, there's no evident strong trend towards an increase or decrease in value. The marginal fluctuations could be due to market dynamics, but without considering external events or factors, we can't explain these slight fluctuations. But it's clear that the value remained close to 0.0088, meaning the exchange rate was relatively stable during this time.

Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns

By examining the data provided, there aren’t any clear seasonal or recurring patterns identifiable. The exchange rate shows a random fluctuation around the mean within a narrow range, but no consistent pattern at certain time intervals is visible from the data. Without more data or information, it's hard to establish any firm patterns of cyclic variation, such as those that might be seen within particular hours, days, or other periods.

Noting any outliers

In this dataset, there do not appear to be any major outliers, i.e., instances where the exchange rate deviates significantly from the general trend. All the exchange rate values lie very close to each other, within a narrow range around 0.0088, telling us that there are no apparent aberrations from the expected pattern of this data. However, it's always prudent to keep in mind that sudden economic events, which are not considered in this analysis, can cause large, sudden variations in exchange rates.

Summary of Last Week

• Opening:
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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

After analyzing the dataset, it is apparent that the exchange rates have not dramatically fluctuated over the given period. The rates started at 0.00876 and ended at 0.00882. While there were minor ups and downs within this range, the overall trend can best be described as stable, with a slight increase.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

From time-series analysis, there was no apparent seasonality or recurring patterns within the timeframe of this dataset. There could be minor fluctuations during specific times of the day, but these aren’t strong or consistent enough to establish a definite pattern. Also, this observation may scope only within the presented data and could require more extensive historical and future data to thoroughly confirm.

Identification of Outliers

• There were multiple instances of small fluctuations which can be considered as minor outliers; for example, on 2024-04-03 08:00:02, a slight rise to 0.00887 from the previous stable level. However, the rate quickly returned to normal, indicating this could be a result of short-term market factors.
• On 2024-04-04 08:00:03, a significant drop occurred to 0.00875. This is the lowest rate in the given dataset. Again, the rate shortly returned to the normal level.
• Afterward, the rate reached the highest value in the dataset (0.0089) on 2024-04-12 14:00:01 and the following period.

However, these outliers did not drastically affect the overall stable trend.

Additional Factors

While this analysis does not specifically account for factors such as market opening and closing hours, weekends and holidays, and the release of financial news or reports, these all potentially could affect exchange rates. The absence of accounting for these factors does not suggest they are not important but instead is due to the analysis requirement for using only the provided dataset. Further extensive study is strongly recommended for a more comprehensive understanding.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

The dataset presents the JMD exchange rate values in an hourly time series from 15th April to 19th April 2024. Since the data is given as an hourly time series, the trend can be observed within the day and from one day to the next.

Visually, the JMD exchange rate seems to follow a relatively consistent pattern, with minor fluctuations throughout the day. The exchange rate begins at 0.00887 on the 15th April and ends at 0.00882 on the 19th April, indicating a very slight overall decrease.

There are small fluctuations in the currency exchange rate throughout the day, with minimal highs and lows. These changes could potentially be the result of standard market volatility.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

Generally, the variations within a day do not exhibit a clear pattern, which means they do not show a significant self-repeatable trend within a 24-hour period. Each day seems to work independently of others. There's fairly consistent volatility in the exchange rate throughout the day, but no significant spikes or drops that could suggest a consistent pattern or trend.

3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality.

Given the very small range of the dataset (a minimum of 0.00882 and a maximum of 0.00891), there don't appear to be any significant outliers in the provided dataset. No significant peaks or troughs are observed that could be seen as extraordinary variations or that deviate drastically from the observed trend.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of exchange rates

According to the provided dataset, the overall trend of the JMD exchange rate shows a relatively stable trend within a narrow range. The exchange rate started at a value of 0.00884 at the start of the period and generally maintained around this value throughout the timeframe. There were minor fluctuations observed, but the deviation from the starting value was quite insignificant.

2. Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns

Given the data reviewed and the narrow range within which the exchange rate varies, it’s difficult to infer a clear seasonality or recurring pattern in the exchange rate's changes. However, there seems to be a very slight downward trend around specific times (01:50:02, 02:05:02, 09:05:03, etc.). This pattern might qualify as a daily trend, but it is not substantial enough to determine a clear seasonal pattern.

3. Noting any outliers

Outlier detection in this dataset is somewhat challenging due to the relatively stable nature of the exchange rates in the observed timeframe. The rates hover within a very narrow margin, with only minute fluctuations. Considering the range of the fluctuations, there don't appear to be any significant outliers in this dataset. Instances where the exchange rate shows a noticeable deviation from the average value are rare and insignificant to consider them outliers.

Please note that this analysis doesn't take into account potential external factors such as market conditions, significant news or events affecting exchange rates, holidays, or the opening and closing of markets, which may have influenced the exchange rates. This is purely a data-driven analysis based on the provided dataset.