Nepalese Rupee Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Overall Trend of the exchange rates

    The overall trend of the exchange rates (NPR) shows a small fluctuation over the time period provided, with a slight increase from 0.01024 at the start to 0.01026, then slightly decreasing towards the end at 0.01022. The exchange rates show a level of consistency, with value maintained around the 0.01025 mark for the majority of the time series. There is no clear general trend of either a consistent increase or decrease.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Due to the consistent nature of the data set, no clear seasonality or recurring patterns can be discerned. The NPR exchange rate remains relatively stable, with minor fluctuations throughout the given time period. However, without defining a 'trading day' period or a longer data period, it is hard to determine or confirm any significant seasonal effects or pattern recurrence.

    3. Outliers Within the Dataset

    The data presented does not show any prominent outliers. The exchange rate fluctuates around 0.01025 with minor deviation which indicates there are no significant changes or spikes that differ from the overall pattern. A relatively stable exchange rate such as this does not generally exhibit erratic or sudden changes, barring an external event, which is not considered in this analysis.

    Conclusion

    The given financial time series data for the NPR exchange rate reveals a fairly consistent rate over the specified period. Noteworthy trends include a moderately consistent exchange rate with minor fluctuations and no easily apparent seasonality or recurring patterns observed from the data. Also, no significant outliers were detected that would indicate notable changes or deviations from the established pattern.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    Over the period of time shown in this dataset, it can be seen that exchange rates generally had an increasing trend. They started at a value of 0.0102 and increased steadily to 0.01026, which represents a marginal increase over the period. The rate is relatively stable with small fluctuations. It should be noted that the exchange rate remained consistent with small decimal point changes only.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in Exchange Rates

    From the given dataset, there doesn't seem to be any obvious seasonality or recurring patterns at different times as the increment in the rate is rather linear throughout the day. There is no clear pattern shown in terms of hourly changes, perhaps due to the fact that the changes on these minute level intervals are very subtle. However, further analysis would be required with a broader time range data to identify if there are changes in rates consistently at a particular time of the day or week.

    Outliers

    Considering the data, there are no apparent outliers, or instances indicating that the exchange rate differs significantly from the expected trend. The exchange rate remains within a very close range of 0.0102 to 0.01026 throughout the time period. The data consistently navigates within this range, which is marginal.

    External Factors

    As per your request, this analysis did not take into account external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. The patterns and trends identified are purely based on the numeric data provided.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    The data you have given is time-stamped and covers the exchange rate for a particular day in 2024. Before anything else, it is important to note that the timestamp records the exchange rate at every five-minute interval.

    Overall Trend Analysis:

    The exchange rate on this day starts at 0.01015 and concludes at 0.01018. The trend, in general, is quite stable with a few minor changes. The exchange rate first increases slightly from 0.01015 to 0.01016, keeps steady for some time, and then increases a bit further to 0.01019 and eventually to 0.0102. After this peak, it drops back to 0.01019 and declines further to 0.01018 towards the end of the day.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns:

    With respect to this single day's data, we cannot confidently infer any seasonality or periodic patterns. Nonetheless, a particular trend that is observable in the data is its tendency to remain relatively stable for a period and then change slightly.

    Outliers:

    Given that the exchange rates are stationary around 0.01015 and 0.01019 for significant durations of the day, the slight increases to 0.01019 and 0.01020 could potentially be viewed as outliers. However, considering the overall small range within which the exchange rate is fluctuating (0.01015 to 0.0102), branding these instances as substantial outliers would probably be an exaggeration.

    It's also important to remember that this analysis is based solely on the data provided and does not take into account any external factors such as specific events, market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding of the Overall Trend

    Upon an initial examination of the dataset, it is observed that the exchange rate values generally fluctuate around the 0.01015 mark. While there is no distinct continuous upward or downward trend, a slight periodic waxing and waning pattern can be observed. These fluctuations seem to occur within a narrow range, thus maintaining an overall stability to some degree.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Due to the high frequency of the data (nearly every 2 hours), seasonal or recurring patterns over the yearly or quarterly timeframe would be challenging to conclusively identify. However, if we consider the "micro-seasonality" within the course of a single day, we can observe slight but consistent fluctuations. There seem to be two peak points daily where the exchange rates increase slightly before falling back down. However, this pattern is relatively weak and doesn't show massive relevance for long-term strategy.

    Outliers in the Data

    In terms of identifying significant outliers or instances where the exchange rate significantly deviates from the expected, given trend or pattern, none seem to be present. As noted, the fluctuations seen in the exchange rate throughout this dataset are quite narrow, indicating relatively little volatility. The highest exchange rate observed in the dataset doesn't stray far from the average, indicating that there weren't any significant unexpected shifts in rates during the period covered by this dataset.

    Overall, it can be concluded that the data exhibits relatively stable exchange rates over time with a lack of clear seasonal patterns or significant outliers. It is also worth noting that this analysis has been conducted purely on the given time-series data and we have not considered potential impact from external factors such as specific financial events, market conditions or the release of key financial news or reports.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis of Exchange Rates Over Time

    The data presented shows the National Payment Rate (NPR) change over time from the 19th of February to the 23rd of February 2024. Parsed into timestamped data points, we can observe the NPR at every hour and thus make some inferences about its behaviour during this period.

    1. Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    At the beginning of the given period, the exchange rate starts at 0.01015 and sees no significant change until around the 20th of February, where there is a slight uptick to 0.01019. Rates peak at 0.01021 on 21st February and starts to decrease from there, ending at 0.01015 on 23rd February. Thus, the overall trend seems to show a slight increase mid-period followed by a comparable decrease overall, maintaining relative stability.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in Exchange Rates

    From an initial analysis of the data provided, we do not see clear recurring patterns or strong evidence of seasonality in the exchange rates. However, some minor fluctuations are observed: most notably, there are slight increases around 9:00 and mild decreases around 15:00. These patterns do not persist daily or on a weekly basis, indicating a lack of a strong seasonality factor.

    3. Outliers in the Exchange Rates

    There are no significant outliers in this data set. The range of values is pretty tight, with the values fluctuating between 0.01014 and 0.01021. Significant deviations from the overall trend are observed in the period from the 21st to 22nd February, where the exchange rate starts to decrease.

    Overall, this data presents a relatively stable trend of NPR over the timeframe observed, with minor fluctuations likely in response to microeconomic factors that are not considered in this analysis. However, any strong conclusions of causation would require further and more detailed information.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The overall trend of exchange rates within the data provided shows a nearly stable trend with minor fluctuation. The exchange rate began at 0.01014 at the start of the provided timestamps, and by the end of the timeframe, it remained very close, ending at 0.01015. This suggests that within this timeframe, the rate has largely remained stable, with slight increases at times.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    From the given data, no clear seasonal or recurring patterns can be observed. The rates exhibit minor fluctuations throughout the day but there are no constant ups and downs that would suggest a seasonal or a daily pattern. However, slight increases can sometimes be observed around the 01:05:02 and 09:10:03 timestamps, indicating the possibility of some daily patterns that may be linked to specific market activities or shifts in supply and demand. It may warrant further investigation.

    Outliers in the Exchange Rates

    Within the given dataset, rates range between 0.01012 and 0.01016. The majority of the exchange rates revolve around the 0.01014-0.01015 mark. There are few instances observed at 0.01012 and 0.01016, which might be considered as slight outliers. However, these values do not show a significant deviation from the majority of the data, therefore, cannot be considered as true outliers.

    Conclusion

    Overall, the dataset presents a stable trend in exchange rates with minor fluctuations. There are some potential daily patterns suggested by minor rate increases at specific times, but a further detailed analysis would be necessary to confirm these. There are no significant outliers observed in this dataset.