Nepalese Rupee Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Detailed Analysis

The comprehensive analysis of your given dataset, which represents exchange rate (NPR) versus different timestamps, is as follows:

1. Understanding the Overall Trend

Observing the given data, it can be noted that overall, the exchange rates do not experience significant fluctuations. They largely remain stable within the range of 0.01026 to 0.01031 over the duration of one day represented in the dataset. This is quite an unexpected trend as financial markets are usually subject to volatility. However, it is still important to note that even slight changes in exchange rates can have considerable financial impacts due to the large volumes involved.

2. Seasonality Or Recurring Patterns

With respect to identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns, the provided data set only spans over a day, which limits the possibility of deducing concrete information about seasonality or recurring cycles. You might need a dataset for a minimum period of a few months to a year to try to identify such patterns.

3. Outliers Identification

From the data provided, no extreme value, also known as an outlier, can be identified. The values in the dataset all lie within the above-mentioned range, remaining relatively stable and consistent. There isn’t any significant spike or drop in the exchange rates, which signifies that no specific event drastically impacted the rates during this period. This further suggests stability in the economic parameters during this timeframe. Always remember, recognizing outliers is important because they can lead to significant insights about certain events or errors in data recording.

Remember, the financial market is very dynamic, and the stability seen in this small dataset might not represent the overall behavior of the exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend

The overall trend of exchange rates in the dataset provided remain relatively stable over the period shown. The rate seemed to kick off at a value of 0.0103. Most of the time period in this dataset indicates little fluctuations in value. Later in the time series, a slight increase in exchange rate can be seen from 0.0103 up to 0.01031. Subsequently, there are very slight fluctuations - the rate dips slightly to about 0.01027 and later rises up to 0.0103 again.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

It's difficult to identify any recurring patterns or a strong seasonality in this dataset due to the very small fluctuation in exchange rates. However, it seems that NPR exchange rate keeps a generally stable range with tiny deflections, only inclining or declining by minuscule amounts.

Outliers

In this dataset, there appears to be no significant outliers since the exchange rates only differ by very small scales from the overall trend.

Not considering specific events or external factors

As per your request, this analysis does not consider the external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Furthermore, any surge or drop in the NPR exchange rate might be linked with external unforeseen economic events or policy changes, but these cannot be detected solely based on the numbers in the provided dataset.

Forecast

No future exchange rate forecasts were generated as per your request. The analysis carried out is purely based on the historical data provided and does not predict future exchange rate trends.

Please note that while this analysis provides a brief overview of the NPR exchange rates according to the dataset, a much more in-depth analysis might be necessary for making crucial financial decisions, considering factors like inflation, interest rates, public debt, economic performance, among others.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overview of the NPR Exchange Rate Trend

The NPR exchange rate data provided ranges from 0.01025 to 0.0103. The trend seems stable for most of the provided period. However, there are slight fluctuations in the exchange rates with noticeable increment towards the end of the period.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

From the data provided, it is challenging to identify any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of NPR exchange rates since the variations are quite small and the data is only for a day. To determine seasonality or recurring patterns, it would need more spread out data over an extended period. However, no significant seasonality or hourly recurring pattern was observed in this one day of data.

Identification of Outliers

Outliers in a dataset are values that further away from the mean. Based on the range of NPR exchange rate values, no significant outliers can be noticed. The exchange rate mostly fluctuated between 0.01025 to 0.0103, and all observed rates fall into this range. Therefore, we can conclude that the provided data set doesn't have significant outliers.

For a more in-depth analysis, data over an extended period would be desirable as it would represent trends, seasonality, and potential outliers on a larger scale.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend

The overall trend indicates that the exchange rate has been relatively stable throughout the given time period. The exchange rates oscillate around 0.01028, with only minor fluctuations observed. The rates slightly increased to 0.01030 at a certain point but soon returned to 0.01028. Towards the latter part of the dataset, there is a slight decrease to 0.01026, but it then shows a slight increase again, with values returning close to the most common level of 0.01028.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Upon analyzing the data, there seems to be no clear seasonality or recurring patterns within this dataset. Instead, the dataset shows a level of variability throughout the timestamps though with the NPR remaining close to its median value. Further analysis would be required over a longer period of time for any potential recurring patterns to be identified, especially if looking for daily or weekly patterns.

Outliers

No obvious outliers were identified in this dataset, as all values remained closely clustered around the median value. The slight increase to 0.01030 does not wildly deviate from the trend and can thus be seen as a minor fluctuation rather than an outlier. The same applies to the slight decrease to 0.01026 later on. Given these observations, the dataset may be viewed as relatively consistent in its nature.

To summarize, the dataset shows a relatively stable exchange rate with minor fluctuations around a central value. There doesn't appear to be any obvious seasonality or recurring patterns in the data, and no significant outliers have been identified. Please note, this analysis does not take into account any external market factors or events that might have impacted the exchange rates.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend

Looking at the data, the overall trend of the exchange rates seems relatively stable, with slight fluctuations. The exchange rates for NPR are fluctuating between 0.01014 and 0.01034 over this time period. Though there is an observable increase and decrease flow, the change is not significantly high, depicting a relatively stable trend.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

From an initial observation of the data, it is difficult to ascertain any strong signs of seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates. The time slots noted are not consistent; there are intra-day gaps between some observations and even days gaps between others. However, one may see slight ups and downs of the rates at certain times of the day across multiple dates. These slight changes might indicate a daily cyclical pattern, but more data and deeper analysis are necessary to confirm this.

Outliers

For identifying outliers, a range, standard deviation, or a more sophisticated statistical tool might be needed. However, in the given data, there are no significant peaks or deep troughs indicating outliers or extreme values. Most exchange rates are grouped closely around the 0.0101 to 0.0103 mark. The highest exchange rate observed is 0.01034 and the lowest is 0.01014. Given the slight difference between the lowest and highest exchange rate in this dataset, it is safe to say that no observable outliers exist in this data based on the overall trend.

This general low volatility could suggest a stable economic environment during this given period. Still, please remember that this descriptive analysis doesn't consider external dynamic elements influencing exchange rates. These could include economic indicators, geopolitical events, and changes in the financial market. Therefore, it's recommended to consider a more sophisticated forecasting methodology for business or trading purposes.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Trend Analysis

Based on the data provided, the exchange rate remains relatively stable, with a slight decreasing trend over the period shown. There are minor fluctuations in the exchange rate from 0.01034 to 0.01025, but there's no substantial sustained increase or decrease signifying a significant trend.

2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

The data provided does not show a clear seasonal or recurring pattern in the exchange rates. Exchange rates seem to slightly increase, decrease and then return to around the same rate periodically, indicating they're consistent.

3. Outliers

Based on provided data, there are no prominent outliers. The exchange rate seems to deviate within a given small range (0.01025 - 0.01034) signifying that there are no rates that significantly differ from the average.

Note that for a comprehensive and reliable analysis, a larger dataset over a longer period might be required. This will ensure capturing any broader patterns or trends in the exchange rate that might not be observable within a small timeframe. It's also recommended to consider the external factors influencing the exchange rate, such as market opening/closing hours and the release of key financial news and reports which have been asked not to be considered in this analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend in Exchange Rates

Upon analyzing the data set at hand, it is observed that the exchange rate of NPR (presumably the Nepalese Rupee) against another currency has remained fairly stable throughout the recorded period, with the value oscillating between 0.01025 and 0.01031. There were no substantial climbs or drops in the exchange rate, suggesting a stable currency pair during this period.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

With regard to seasonal or recurring patterns in data, the information available does not appear to indicate any clear-cut patterns. The fluctuation of the exchange rate isn't large enough to infer any clear cyclical or seasonal pattern based on the provided dataset. However, there may be micro-fluctuations throughout the day as a result of trading activities, but they would require further meticulous examination to confirm, and may also not amount to significant trading strategy due to their smaller size.

Identification of Outliers

When it comes to outliers in the data, this dataset appears rather consistent with no glaring outliers. The data fluctuations are minimal through the recorded timestamps and do not vary significantly from the mean of the dataset. However, a more comprehensive analysis may be required over a longer time period or with a more granular data set to accurately identify outliers.

Additional Notes

• In the data, several time points show identical exchange rates over multiple timestamps. This could be a result of low volatility during off-peak trading hours or non-trading days.
• The peak exchange rate value stands at 0.01031 that occurs at multiple instances, whereas the lowest exchange rate recorded is 0.01025.
• The frequency of these peaks and troughs seems to be dispersed randomly, and no discernible pattern can be discerned from this block of data alone.