Egyptian Pound Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall trend of the exchange rates

    By analyzing the data, it seems that the overall trend of the exchange rates is relatively stable. The rates are fluctuating around the value of 0.0439. There are minor variations in the exchange rates at different time points, but there is no noticeable general increase or decrease over the period under review.

    Seasonality and recurring patterns

    There seems to be no clear seasonal or recurring pattern in the data at first glance. The exchange rates don't show a regular rise and fall that might indicate a daily or otherwise periodic fluctuation pattern. While the data appears to be mostly stable, a detailed statistical analysis would be required to conclusively identify any subtle patterns.

    Outliers in the exchange rates

    There are few points where the rate deviates from the average, like at timestamp 2024-02-29 00:55:02, where it hits one of the highest points at 0.04407, and at timestamp 2024-02-29 02:55:02, where it increases to 0.04409. Other than these few instances, the exchange rates don't vary significantly. These could be considered as potential outliers. However, given the narrow overall range of the rates, these variations still fall within that range and hence, they aren't necessarily anomalies.

    External Factors

    Even though it has been requested not to consider external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays or financial news, it's worth mentioning that these factors generally have a significant impact on exchange rates. Ignoring them might overlook crucial aspects of why and when exchange rates fluctuate.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    Starting from the first data point on 2024-02-28 00:00:02 where the exchange rate was 0.04384, it is notable that slight fluctuations occur as we move further down the time frame. Decoding the dataset timestamp reveals that the data captured extended over a 24 hour period. By afternoon, it was observed that the rate generally began to creep higher, and by evening, it reached the highest value - 0.04407. After reaching this peak, the rates then started to decrease and the lowest rate observed was 0.0438.

    Identifying any Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in the Exchange Rates

    As this is a single-day dataset, finding any seasonality or recurrent patterns that span over days, weeks, or months might not be possible. However, for this one day, it can be observed that the rate generally increased during the early hours of the morning and evening. Unfortunately, without more data points, it's hard to assert if this pattern holds true for other days or if there is any weekly seasonality.

    Noting Any Outliers

    Despite minor ups and downs throughout the day, all values mostly stay within the range of 0.0438 - 0.04407. No value significantly deviated from this range. Hence, there is no prominent outlier in the given time series data.

    Disclaimer: This is a basic analysis based on the given dataset. For a more comprehensive analysis, a larger dataset that spans over a more extended period would be required. Also, it is important to note that exchange rates are influenced by a multitude of factors, such as inflation rates, interest rates, country's debt level, and political stability etc. So, any conclusions drawn from this analysis should be taken with caution.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    The data provided consists of timestamps and corresponding exchange rates for EGP over a period. Upon visual examination, there does not appear to be a solid upward or downward trend in the exchange rates. The values fluctuate within a small range, between 0.04363 and 0.04378 throughout the given data period. This suggests relative stability in the exchange rates during the period under analysis.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    In order to detect any seasonality or recurring patterns, suffice to say that a more sophisticated model or visual plot would be required, such as autocorrelation plots or a time-series decomposition plot. However, based solely on the provided data, there aren't clear indications of recurring cyclic or seasonal patterns within the exchange rate fluctuations. The rates seem to fluctuate around a mean with no visible seasonality over this short timeframe.

    Outliers Analysis

    An outlier in this data would be represented by a sudden, significant variation in the exchange rate that isn't consistent with the general fluctuations in the data. From the given data, no severe spikes or drops indicate an outlier. Exchange rates appear to fluctuate moderately without drastic change.

    Summary

    In conclusion, the trends in the given EGP exchange rate data suggest relative stability over the analyzed period, with moderate fluctuations and no clear evidence of a strong increasing or decreasing trend. There are also no visible outliers or any evident seasonality in the dataset.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    Looking at the provided dataset, the overall trend of the EGP exchange rate over the given period appears to be relatively stable. The exchange rates fluctuate within a reasonably narrow range of 0.04324 to 0.04396, indicating a steady state of the currency with minor fluctuations. Minor increases and decreases are continuously observed throughout the time period, yet the magnitude of these fluctuations is small, which suggests a level of stability in the exchange rates.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    From the given data, finding any seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates is slightly complex given the random timestamps due to the aggregated data of different hours and days. However, a closer look at the data represents minor fluctuations in the EGP exchange rate within a relatively stable band. These fluctuations do not hint towards a concrete pattern or a clear seasonality trend within the provided period.

    Identifying Outliers in the data

    Considering the consistent range in which the exchange rates fluctuate, there are no significant outliers identifiable in the dataset. The exchange rate consistently fluctuates within the range, with a minimal dispersion level. Hence, the dataset does not entail any significant deviations that can be classified as outliers.

    Note that this analysis is based solely on the data provided and does not consider any external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Further, it does not generate any forecast for future rates.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    The provided dataset spans from 2024-02-19 to 2024-02-23 and the overall movement of the EGP exchange rate seems to be stable to slightly increasing over this period. The rate starts at 0.0436 and ends at 0.0437, showing a minimal positive change. However, there are some fluctuations within this period, but the exchange rate is relatively stable and remains within a narrow range of values.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    On examining the intra-day changes in the exchange rate, it appears there's a slight increase in the rate in the early morning (02:00 to 07:00) and a slight decrease towards the late night (20:00 to 01:00). However, more data over multiple weeks or months would be needed for more precise pattern or seasonality identification.

    Outliers

    During the observed period, no significant outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the trend were observed. All the exchange rate values seem to be within the expected normal range and there are no abrupt spikes or dips, suggesting that there were no significant market events or news that greatly impacted the EGP exchange rate during this period.

    Note: This analysis is solely based on the provided data and did not consider any external market events or factors that can affect the exchange rate.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    1. Overall Trend Analysis

    By analyzing the given data, we observe that over the duration of the provided time series, the exchange rates show minor fluctuations but remain relatively stable. The rate starts at 0.04362 and ends at 0.0437 showing a slight upward trend. However, the changes are minute and the value of the exchange rate remains in the same domain of 0.043 indicating stability.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Considering the precision of the data and the timeframe, it is difficult to pinpoint any significant seasonality or recurring patterns. The values show a non-uniform oscillating behavior but appear to maintain stability in the small range between a maximum of 0.04374 and a minimum of 0.04357. These minimal fluctuations could potentially be a daily pattern; however, with the data at hand, it's challenging to confirm any noteworthy seasonality or recurring pattern.

    3. Outliers Identification

    Across the spectrum of the data, there weren’t observations that deviated substantially from the slight fluctuating trend observed. The values all stay within a relatively tight range, suggesting low volatility in this particular time frame. Therefore, there are no significant outliers in the provided dataset based on the observed trend and fluctuations.