Egyptian Pound Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall trend of exchange rates

On observing the data, it appears that the exchange rates show minor fluctuations but remain relatively stable over time. The rate started at 0.02858 and ended at 0.02851 which implies a slight decrease over the period. However, this variation is so small that it may not suggest a significant depreciation of the currency. Also, such delicate changes may be attributed to the normal functioning of the foreign exchange market rather than a trend.

Seasonality or recurring patterns

Regarding seasonality or recurring patterns in exchange rates, it is difficult to make clear conclusions based only on this dataset. The data shows slight decreases and increases at almost regular intervals, but this fluctuation is minimal. It is worth noting that foreign exchange rates can exhibit seasonality or recurring patterns due to various factors, like trading hours, macroeconomic releases, and more. However, such patterns are not distinctly evident in this data set without further analysis which could include Fourier Transformation or Autocorrelation analysis.

Outliers

Looking through the data, there appear to be no obvious outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what might be expected based on the trend or seasonality. The values of EGP exchange rate lie in a very narrow range of 0.02851 to 0.02866, showing that all the rates are quite close to each other. There may still exist some subtle outliers not detectable through just a surface-level glance, and statistical tests such as z-score or IQR could be used to identify them.

Need for consideration of external factors

Although the data does not show significant volatility, it's important to consider that exchange rates can be affected by external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, the release of key financial news, and reports, geopolitical events, etc. However, as the analysis requested does not desire the consideration of such factors, no further investigation into these external influences was pursued.

Please note: The given analysis is a basic interpretation of the data provided. For a more reliable and detailed report, more advanced statistical analysis and access to more details such as currency pair, economic indicators during the given period, etc. would be beneficial.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend:

The data suggests that the exchange rates remain relatively consistent over this time period. They hover around the 0.02859 - 0.02868 mark without significant deviation. This is seen by the relatively small variability in the exchange rate data, with a minimum value of approximately 0.02839 and a maximum value of 0.02868.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns:

Based on the timeseries data provided, no discernible clear seasonal or recurring patterns in the exchange rates can be identified. The exchange rates show minute fluctuations but do not exhibit consistent changes that suggest cyclical or repeating patterns within the scope of the data.

Noting Any Outliers:

From the initial examination of the dataset, there appear to be no significant outliers in the exchange rates. All rates fall within a very small range, and none deviate heavily from the overall trend of consistency. However, without a deeper statistical analysis, it is impossible to definitively say whether outliers exist within this dataset.

Consideration of External Factors:

As per request, external factors such as market conditions, time of day, or the release of financial news were not considered in this analysis. These elements could certainly influence exchange rates and could potentially reveal more detailed patterns or trends within the dataset if included.

Overall, the consistency within this dataset suggests a stable exchange rate environment within this specific period. A more detailed analysis involving external factors or expanded timescales may reveal further information.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analysis of the Exchange Rates (EGP) Over Time

From the given dataset, we can examine the trends of exchange rates over the time span in question. In this dataset, EGP exchange rates are captured at different timestamps, providing a series of real-time data.

Upon analyzing these data points, the trend appears to be fairly stable - the exchange rate shifts between 0.02839 and 0.02855, indicating relatively small changes over the given period. This suggests that the EGP must have been steady during this period.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

From the dataset, there is insufficient information to determine any seasonality or recurring patterns within the changes of exchange rates. To make these types of conclusions, we would need data for more extended periods covering different seasons or cycles of the financial market.

Identifying Outliers

Determining outliers in a data series involves understanding what would be expected based on a trend or seasonality. Based on the provided dataset, no distinctive outliers can be observed. The given EGP exchange rates oscillate within a close range, suggesting there was no occurrence or event during this specific period that caused a substantial spike or drop in values.

However, without deeper historical data, more robust statistical analysis tools, or knowledge of specific financial events in the given period, identifying outliers or anomalies within a dataset will always be limited.

Please note that this analysis does not explicitly consider potentially relevant external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. These factors can significantly affect the exchange rates, so while not requested, they should be kept in mind for a more in-depth analysis.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend

Upon analyzing the dataset, it is visible that the overall trend of the exchange rate between EGP seems to be very stable. This is evidenced by the increment and decrease by very small margins towards the end of the dataset which suggests that there is insignificant volatility in the EGP exchange rate during these time periods.

Recurring Patterns/Seasonality

Regarding recurring patterns, there does not appear to be any clear seasonality or recurring patterns in the dataset. This suggests the absence of significant macroeconomic or international financial events causing such patterns during these time periods. Fluctuations in the exchange rates occur at a minute level and do not show identifiable time-based patterns or cycles.

Noteworthy Outliers

Given the stability of the exchange rates during these time periods, there are no significant outliers or extreme values in the dataset that would indicate a major financial event or shock. The fluctuations, both upward and downward, are very minute and within a close range, suggesting a stable forex market condition.

Consideration of External Factors

While external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, and the release of key financial news and reports can influence exchange rates, the analysis conducted here solely focuses on the provided dataset and disregards these events.

This dataset assessment thus provides an image of a highly stable EGP exchange rate for the duration mentioned, with negligible fluctuations and no significant outliers. However, it's important to note that a more detailed analysis with additional macroeconomic data might yield more insights into patterns and factors impacting these rates.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

The data shows some level of fluctuation in the exchange rates over the period. Although there is no significant or substantial increase or decrease, the exchange rate seems to exhibit minor oscillations. Initially, there's a slight increase in the rate from 0.02907 on March 22, 2024, to 0.02918 on March 25, 2024. However, from this point onward until about April 11, 2024, a general trend of decrease can be seen, reaching a low ebb of approximately 0.02835. From April 11 onward until the end of the dataset (April 19, 2024), the trend generally picks up again slowly, swinging back towards higher rates around 0.0285.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

While the exchange rates display some variability, it is challenging to discern a clear repeating pattern or seasonality directly from this data. Still, a few trends can be noticed. The first one being a slight increase during the morning hours, followed by a minor decrease around afternoon or early evening. This pattern somewhat repeats throughout the dataset. However, as fluctuations are relatively small, one should be careful while drawing any firm conclusions.

Note on Outliers

Most exchange rates in the dataset tend to fall within a relatively narrow range of 0.02835 to 0.02918. However, there's a noticeable drop down to around 0.02822 on April 15, 2024. This could be considered an outlier, as it's a significant departure from the trend seen before and after this date. It also represents the lowest point in this dataset. However, without considering any specific event or external factors which might have influenced this plunge, it is hard to gauge why this significant drop has occurred.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Upon examination of the given dataset, it reveals that the exchange rate for EGP has shown a slight increasing trend over the period from April 15, 2024 to April 19, 2024. It started from 0.02889 and ended at 0.02844 which indicates a small but steady increase in the rate. However, there are micro fluctuations from time to time, but they are small and don't seem to disrupt the overall upward trend.

2. Identifying Seasonality/Recurring Patterns

The dataset does not indicate any clear seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rate; the fluctuations appear random rather than following a repeating, predictable cycle. This is typical for exchange rates, which can be influenced by a multitude of factors and are often sensitive to even minor changes in economic conditions.

3. Observing Any Outliers

From the data provided, there doesn't seem to be any significant outliers. The exchange rate stays within a relatively narrow range of 0.02822 to 0.02862 over the entire period. None of the rates in this dataset deviate significantly from the trend or the majority of the other rates.

Therefore, it can be stated overall that the EGP exchange rate displayed a slight increase over this time period, without any clear seasonality or significant outliers.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Given the requirements specified, the below is a comprehensive analysis of the dataset considering only the trends, patterns, and deviations present in the data, without considering any potential external influences:

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Looking at the data, the overall trend seems to be relatively stable. The exchange rate appears to fluctuate around 0.0284 to 0.0285, with negligible variations. There do not appear to be drastic increases or decreases over the given time span, suggesting overall stability in the exchange rate during this period.

Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns

In the given dataset, it's hard to identify any distinct patterns or seasonality without additional information like the day of the week or the month. However, from a superficial analysis, there doesn't seem to be any prominent recurring pattern in the exchange rates over the given time period. Since the rates are stable and the fluctuation range is very narrow, it's challenging to discern any specific patterns or cycles. Given more data or context, recurring trends or cycles might become more apparent.

Noting outliers

An outlier in this context is a data point that significantly deviates from the other points. In this data set, such points are not evident. Given the stability of the rates and the narrow fluctuation range, there doesn't seem to be any instance where the exchange rate significantly deviates from the prevalent rate, indicating consistency in the exchange rates with no unexpected outliers.

It is crucial to note that this analysis is purely data-driven and does not take into consideration any external factors that might be influencing these exchange rates. For a comprehensive understanding of this data, it would be beneficial to incorporate information like market trends, economic indicators, and political events, which are typically reflective and predictive of exchange rate movements.