Moldovan Leu Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall trend of the exchange rates

The overall trend of the exchange data provided seems to be a slight decrease. The exchange rate started at 0.07702 and ended at 0.07668 over the course of the day, presenting minimal fluctuation over the course of the data period. It is not a significant change but it is apparent enough to discern a slight trend. The most notable increment seems to have been a small jump to the approximate value of 0.07707 around 08:00, but the rate returned to its usual levels shortly thereafter.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in the Exchange Rates

Based on the data given, there doesn't appear to be a prominent or predictable seasonal or recurring pattern in the exchange rates within the day. Instead, the variability of the rates seems to be quite small, indicating a relatively stable exchange market. The value fluctuates between 0.07667 and 0.07707 for most of the day, suggesting a stable market behaviour.

Outliers or Significant Deviations

In terms of outliers or significant deviations on the day, there does not appear to be any exceptional spikes or dips in the exchange rate. The most distinctive shift seems to be at 06:25 when the exchange rate dropped from 0.07692 to 0.07674, indicating a potential market event that quickly corrected itself. This drop is the most significant single movement but lacks continuity to represent an established trend. The rest of the data remains within a very restricted range indicating no significant outlying behaviour.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

The data indicates that the overall trend of the exchange rates is relatively stable. The minimum exchange rate within the period being 0.07685 and the maximum being 0.07713. The small difference between these two values suggests limited fluctuation, and there isn't a clear general increase or decrease.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Due to the data's nature over a 24 hour timestamp, it is slightly challenging to identify a definitive seasonal pattern. However, it can be noted that there are small fluctuations throughout the day. But then again, these fluctuations are not significantly large enough to denote a strong recurring pattern. It will require a much larger set of data, covering a more extended period, to make a confident assertion on any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of these exchange rates.

Handling of Outliers

There don't appear to be severe outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality within this dataset. The trade rates are all mutually closely tied and are within the data's common range. Nonetheless, the idea of outliers is dependent upon the exact definition one is using and the context within which the data is being observed.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

From the provided dataset, it is observed that the exchange rates remain fairly stable over the observed period. Starting from a rate of approximately 0.0767, the rate fluctuated slightly but always remained around the 0.0767 to 0.0774 mark. While there were moments of mild increase and decrease, the rate did not show a definitive upward or downward trend.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Regarding the seasonality of the exchange rates, no clear recurring pattern is observed in the given dataset. The rates fluctuated slightly but not in a consistent and predictable manner. Any fluctuations seem sporadic and do not follow a discernible daily or hourly pattern. Therefore, it could be inferred that the exchange rates do not have a clear-cut seasonality.

Outliers in the Exchange Rates

There do not seem to be significant outliers in the provided exchange rate data. The exchange rates stayed within a small range, and there was no instance where the rate differed significantly from this range. Therefore, it seems accurate to say that any fluctuations within the observed range could likely be attributed to common market volatility rather than to specific irregularities.

Please note that this is a simplistic analysis and does not take into account more complex factors that might affect exchange rates, such as cross-country economic indicators, international trade balances, or market sentiments. Nevertheless, it provides a straightforward understanding of the overall trend, seasonality, and outliers in the given time-series exchange rate data.

Summary of Last Month

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Trend

1. Trend Analysis

Overall, the MDL exchange rate displays minimal fluctuations within the analysed time frame. It started at 0.0767 at the beginning and rested at 0.0768 at the end, indicating a slight increase over the evaluated period. Nonetheless, the relative stability of rates over the period could also be seen.

2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

It is challenging to identify any clear seasonality or recurring patterns from the provided dataset. This can be partly explained by the short timeline and the fairly stable exchange rates during the period. More data over longer timeframes (like yearly or monthly) might be required for a proper seasonal analysis.

3. Outliers

Outliers, in this case, would be significantly higher or lower exchange rates compared to the overall trend. In the given dataset, such outliers are hard to find due to the apparent stability of the rates. The values, however, peak slightly to 0.07696 at one time point, which can be considered as a mild outlier. But overall, the changes in exchange rates remain relatively consistent with no significant unexpected fluctuations detected.

Summary of Last Week

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Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

Upon analysis, it can be observed that the exchange rate shows fluctuations over the period. However, the overall trend of the exchange rate seems relatively stable with a slight increase. There are instances where the value of the exchange rate declines, but these are often followed by a period of increase, allowing the rate to recover from the previous drop. The data indicates a stable but slight upward trend, suggesting a gentle strengthening of the currency over this period.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Tracking the pattern over time does not exhibit a clear seasonal trend, but some micro-trend patterns exist. These micro-trends range from few hours to a couple of days where the exchange rate oscillates in a similar pattern before shifting to a different rhythm. Recurring patterns in the data might suggest that similar economic or market activities tend to happen cyclically or periodically, affecting the exchange rate in predictable ways.

Outliers in Exchange Rates

The data set has several instances of sudden jumps or drops in the exchange rate which can be considered as outliers. These rapid changes may deviate significantly from the overall trend and can often be tied back to macroeconomic events or news, even though for the purpose of this analysis, we have not taken specific events into account.

Note

• Exchange rates are influenced by many factors, including economic indicators, market sentiment, political conditions, and many more. Even though we do not factor in these considerations in this analysis, in practice, it is important to bear in mind such external influences when interpreting exchange rate data.
• Though the data seems stable now, we cannot provide a definitive future forecast based on the data and trend provided as the exchange rate fluctuations are highly unpredictable in nature and subject to numerous domestic and global factors which are out of the scope of this analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

From a close inspection of the data, there is a general decrease in the exchange rates over the period. The exchange rate starts at 0.07791 and ends at 0.07672. This shows a downward trend, suggesting that the value of the currency being traded (MDL) has been depreciating in value over the time span captured by this data set.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, this would typically require a larger dataset spanning across multiple years. However, from the limited data we have, it seems the exchange rate tends to slightly increase during the first half of the day before slightly decreasing during the second half of the day. But this pattern is not consistently recurring, so it might not provide a reliable or accurate indicator for any short-term or intra-day trading strategy.

Outliers

There doesn't appear to be any significant outliers within this dataset at first glance. The exchange rates fluctuate slightly but generally remain within a narrow range, which suggests stability in this market. However, periodic checks and robust statistical methods could reveal more subtle outliers or sudden shifts.

It's also worth noting that an outlier on its own might not necessarily imply a pricing error or market disruption. It might sometimes be reflecting a rapid market correction or an immediate reaction to some breaking news or market information that hasn't been incorporated in the previous quotes.

Limitation

The above analysis doesn't consider any potential impacts from external factors such as market opening/closing times, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial/economic news and reports. To carry out a more comprehensive and accurate analysis, we would typically need additional data or supplementary information about such event-driven factors. However, as per your requirements, we are not providing an analysis of the impact of these factors.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Considering the data from 19th April 2024, the exchange rates began at 0.07671 MDL at the beginning of the sequence and ended at 0.07678 MDL at the end of the sequence. There is no distinct trend of general increase or decrease in rates as the changes are quite minuscule. Most values hover from 0.0765 to 0.0768, suggesting a generally stable trend throughout the provided duration with slight fluctuation. The exchange rate reaches a peak of 0.07688 and a trough of 0.07653.

2. Identifying Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

The data contains fluctuations that appear random but not necessarily following any clear seasonal pattern or regularity. Even though the available time range is too short to identify long-term patterns, such as on a yearly basis, it’s still feasible to observe the pattern within a day. The fluctuations are not showing a noticeable pattern that recurs at specific intervals within the day. However, these insights are based on one day's data; an analysis across a broader timeframe might reveal more distinct patterns or seasonality in rates.

3. Noting Any Outliers

An outlier is a data point that is significantly different from the other data points, and in this context, it would be a significantly high or low exchange rate. However, in the given dataset, the exchange rates do not display a significant deviation from the overall relatively stable trend. The exchange rates are mostly within the range of 0.0765 to 0.0768, and no notable outliers exist that considerably depart from this range. However, the points where the rate reaches a peak (0.07688) and a trough (0.07653) can potentially be considered as minor outliers. Such deviations need further examination to understand their underlying causes.

It’s important to remember that this analysis is based solely on the statistical properties of the given time-series data, and doesn't take into consideration any external factors such as economic news, geopolitical events, or monetary policies that can significantly influence exchange rates.