Summary of Last Month
- Difference of Opening & Closing:
- Daily High:
- Daily Low:
- Difference of Daily High & Low:
- Standard Deviation:
Overall Trend of The Exchange Rates
From the initial observation of the data, the exchange rate starts from 38.09088 and ends at 37.74582. There seems to be a gradual decrease in the exchange rates based on these figures. However, this does not provide a detailed trend over the entire period and several fluctuations within this period can significantly affect the performance analysis. Thus, it is recommended to use measures such as moving averages for a group of data points to get a clearer picture of the overall trend.
Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns
To understand the pattern and seasonality in the data set, time series decomposition should be performed which involves isolating the components of the time series - trend, seasonality, and residuals. Once these components are isolated, we can identify if there's any consistent seasonality or pattern through a period-by-period comparison - daily, weekly, monthly, or yearly.
Identifying Potential Outliers
Identifying outliers requires the examination of sudden spikes or drops in the exchange rates that don't align with the overall pattern. These outliers can be clearly seen with a visual plot of the rates over time. Other statistical methods, such as Z-score or IQR (Interquartile Range) analyses, could also be used to identify potential outliers.
It is worth noting that outliers might suggest a potential data entry error, but they could also signal critical events of significant interest in the financial analysis context. They might indicate periods when the exchange rate was affected by exceptional global or sector-specific events.
From the data provided, the largest single drop in exchange rates was observed on 2024-02-26 from 05:10:02 to 05:15:03, where the rate went from 38.11266 to 38.04306, a significant switch in such a short period. That could consider being a potential outlier that demands further analysis to determine its cause.
Potential Impact of External Factors
Although you've stated that external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, and the release of key financial news and reports, aren't to be considered in this analysis. It's worth noting that these factors often play a significant role in influencing exchange rates. Any comprehensive analysis in a real-world context should ideally account for these factors to ensure accuracy and relevancy.
In conclusion, remember that this is a high-level analysis based on the data provided. For a more granular understanding of the trend, seasonality, and identification of outliers, more sophisticated time series analysis methods, and visualization tools would be required.