Congolese Franc Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis of Exchange Rates

    Before we start discussing the analysis, it is important to highlight that the data contains the same value, 0.00049, for every timestamp provided. So, the analysis may not be as insightful as expected because there are no changes or fluctuations in the value that we can analyze.

    1. Overall Trend

    Given the entire dataset, the exchange rate is perfectly stable. There is no fluctuation in the exchange rate; it remains constant at 0.00049 throughout the entire time frame. Therefore, we cannot determine a trend of increasing or decreasing rates as the rate remains unchanged.

    2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    As the rates are the same throughout the dataset, there is no seasonality or recurring patterns that can be distinguished. Normally, patterns would be defined as predictable variations in the data set that recur over a specific time frame such as months, quarters, or years. However, since the exchange rate in this dataset remains unchanged, there are no discernible patterns or seasonal effects.

    3. Outliers

    In the case of this dataset, there are no outliers. An outlier would be defined as a data point that differs significantly from other observations. However, given that our dataset has a constant exchange rate, there are no data points that stand out or diverge from the rest, meaning there are no outliers in this dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis of Exchange Rate Time Series Data

    The dataset provided captures the changes in the exchange rates, denoted as the 'CDF' column, against a series of timestamps, given in the 'date_at' column. The exchange rate is a continuous variable captured at regular 5-minute intervals for a single day, specifically on February 28, 2024. Here is the analysis of the dataset based on the objectives:

    1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The exchange rates are constant throughout the given period, recorded at 0.00049. There is no visible overall increasing or decreasing trend for this dataset; instead, the rates stayed stable for the entire day. This is quite unusual as exchange rates usually fluctuate within a single day due to various factors such as supply and demand within the foreign exchange market.

    2. Recurring Patterns/Seasonality in the Exchange Rates

    In the given dataset, the phenomenon of seasonality or recurring pattern does not apply because the exchange rate has remained uniform through all the timestamps. Normally, if the data were recording over a more extensive period, such as a few months or years, possible seasonal influences and recurring patterns may have been observed. However, given the dataset spans only a day and there are no fluctuations in the rates, it's impossible to detect any recurrence or cyclical pattern.

    3. Outliers within the Data

    Outliers in a dataset typically refer to an observation that lies an abnormal distance from other values in a random sample from a population. In this regard, our dataset does not contain any outliers. Given the constant exchange rate observed throughout the day, there are no instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the mean rate.

    It is noteworthy that a stable exchange rate, as depicted by this dataset, is quite abnormal given the volatile nature of foreign exchange markets. Rates often fluctinate due to various factors such as economic indicators, market sentiment, political stability, and other macro-economic factors. However, this scenario may be a result of extreme market interventions by Central Banks or fixed currency exchange rate systems.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    From the dataset provided, it is observed that the exchange rate appears to remain consistent throughout the given period. The exchange rate stays relatively stable at 0.00049, with no apparent increase or decrease. This indicates a relatively steady state of the market with low volatility during this particular timeframe.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Given the constant exchange rate over the period, it is challenging to identify any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates from the provided data. For this, we would typically look for consistent fluctuations or variations that could potentially be linked to specific days, weeks, or months. However, with the available data, such conclusions cannot be drawn due to constant values.

    Outliers or Inconsistencies

    Observing the presented dataset shows no apparent outliers or instances where the exchange rate significantly deviated from the overall trend. A data point would be considered an outlier if it significantly differed from the rest of the data — for example, an exchange rate that is dramatically higher or lower than the consistent value of 0.00049. In this case, no such instances have been observed.

    In summary, the provided data shows a consistent exchange rate over the period, with no discernible patterns, trends, or outliers. This could potentially indicate a stable economic period without significant fluctuations in the market's supply and demand balance. However, this is an analysis strictly based on the given dataset and does not account for potential external macroeconomic or financial variables.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trends in Exchange Rates

    The data provided shows a consistent exchange rate over time for the CDF currency at 0.00049 from the start date till the end date of the dataset. The exchange rate doesn't demonstrate any significant change that can point to a noticeable rising or falling pattern.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    With the absence of any noticeable fluctuations within the given period, it is challenging to determine a recurring pattern or seasonality in the data. The dataset maintains a remarkable consistency in the value of the exchange rate throughout the examined series, with a slight increase recorded at one point, changing the exchange rate value to 0.0005. This increase occurred on 2024-02-13 at 14:00:02. However, this appears as a single instance and does not provide strong evidence of seasonality. After this specific rise, the exchange rate returned to its former constant level of 0.00049 and remained constant throughout the rest of the period.

    Outliers in the Data

    The single incident of a minor rise in the exchange rate value at the timestamp of 2024-02-13 at 14:00:02 is the only outlier in the dataset. Apart from this single instance, the entire dataset maintains an unvarying exchange rate of 0.00049

    External Factors: Market Hours, Weekends, Holidays, and Financial News

    As per the provided specifications, these external factors were not taken into consideration during the analysis of this dataset. Therefore, no discernable influences due to these factors have been identified.

    Forecasting Future Rates

    Again, as per the given guidelines, this analysis does not include a forecast of future exchange rates. While the constant nature of the dataset could suggest a stable exchange rate into the future, without a more detailed analysis that includes variable factors, providing a reliable forecast isn't feasible.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Analyzing a time-series financial dataset without considering specific events or external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays or the release of financial news and reports can give us a broad overview of the trends, seasonality and potential outliers in the data. The given dataset contains timestamps and corresponding cdf exchange rates. Based on the provided values, a few points can be made:

    1. Overall Trend

    The overall trend in the dataset indicates that the exchange rate has remained stable at 0.00049 throughout the entire timestamp. There's no observable increase or decrease in the rates over the provided period.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Since the exchange rates have remained constant at 0.00049, this particular dataset doesn't provide any indication of seasonality or recurring patterns. A larger dataset with more variable values might provide more insight into potential seasonal trends.

    3. Outliers

    Similarly, due to the constant rate, there are no outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the rest of the data.

    To conclude, the given dataset of cdf exchange rates and corresponding timestamps does not exhibit notable trends, seasonality, or outliers. The exchange rate has remained constant throughout the entire period.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    1. Understanding the Overall Trend

    Observing the provided dataset, it was noted that the exchange rate (CDF) remained consistent at 0.00049 throughout all timestamps. Due to this, there were no noticeable fluctuations, and therefore no discernible trend in the context of an increase, a decrease, or a change in the rate. However, the stability of the rate throughout the time series suggests market stability or low volatility during the period considered.

    2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    As the exchange rate (CDF) remained consistent throughout, there were no observable seasonalities nor recurring trends, patterns, or cycles in the data series. A significant change in rates over a specific periodic sequence, e.g., daily, weekly or monthly, would suggest seasonality, but this is not evident from the current dataset. Due to this, it's impossible to draw insights towards this goal with the data provided.

    3. Noting Any Outliers

    The direction for this goal is to identify any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from its observed trend or pattern, which in this case is consistently static at 0.00049. From a review of the dataset, it was found that there were no outliers because the exchange rate was the same for all recorded timestamps in the given periods.

    Conclusion

    Considering the provided data and assuming the accuracy of the information, no volatility in the exchange rate was noted during the period for which data was provided. This reveals a scenario of remarkable consistency concerning the exchange rate of the CDF during this period. Given more varied datasets, we might observe trends, patterns, seasonality, or even outliers in exchange rate performance, which are currently not evident based on the available data.