Barbados Dollar Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Here's an analysis of the provided data:

    1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The overall trend of exchange rates seems to be showing a slight decline with some periods of retainment and minor increases. The data starts at an exchange rate of 0.67317 and ends on 0.67125. This indicates that there has been a slight decrease over this period, although it's relatively minor and the rate does fluctuate somewhat within this overall decrease.

    2. Seasonality in Exchange Rates

    With only about a day worth of minute by minute data, it's hard to firmly establish a pattern of seasonality in the exchange rates. However, I can mention that the data has a natural "wave" pattern visible with it slightly oscillating up and down. This can suggest the presence of intraday seasonality, where rates change based on the time of day and trading activity levels which can contribute to these cycles. However, without more extended dataset and analysis (i.e., over several months or years), we can not confirm it.

    3. Noted Outliers in the Data

    As for the potential outliers in the data, we should set a rule to define what 'outlier' means; for example, a value beyond 3 standard deviations from the mean can be flagged as an outlier. But again, with this small dataset and not significant difference between max, min, mean, and standard deviation, it would not be appropriate to define outliers. It would need a bigger dataset to deal with outliers.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Upon examination of the data, it is observed that the exchange rates presented have changed over time, showing a slight increase, then quite a bit of fluctuation, before increasing more steeply towards the end of the dataset. Taking into account the starting point (0.6699) and the endpoint (0.67303), the overall trend seems to be a very slight increase in the exchange rates throughout the time period. However, this does not provide a complete picture, as the exchange rate exhibits sizeable fluctuations within this period.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    Given the nature of financial markets, it is not uncommon to witness certain patterns or cycles recurring at specific intervals. However, due to the limited time frame captured in the provided dataset (a single day), it would be challenging to elucidate any seasonality confidently. Although, at a first glance no clear pattern seems to be observed within the hours of this single day.

    3. Noting any outliers

    The data does not contain any notable extreme values or 'outliers.' Everybody is fairly clustered around the average with no big leaps or drops in values. However, one noteworthy point is at timestamp 2024-02-28 06:20:02, where the exchange rate has a sudden increase from 0.67125 to 0.67278. This increase is the most significant single change in the dataset, though as exchange rates often fluctuate throughout the day, this is still within the expected range and wouldn't be classified as an outlier.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    Assessing the provided dataset, the overall trend of the exchange rate fluctuates within a marginal range. Though minor dips and raises are observed between 0.66840 and 0.66980, there doesn't seem to be any major escalation or depreciation pattern. Hence, during this period, the exchange rates can be considered relatively stable.

    Identifying Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    From the time series data, a clear seasonal trend or a recurring pattern isn't immediately evident. The timeframe of the data is limited to a single day with little variation in the exchange rate. It may require data across multiples trades, possibly over weeks or months, to draw a conclusion regarding seasonality or recurring patterns within the data effectively.

    Noticing Outliers in the Data

    Outliers are data points that differ significantly from other observations. An outlier may be due to variability in the data or anomalous changes. Given the exchange rates' relatively stable nature in this dataset, large jumps or drops could be considered outliers. For instance, the increase around 06:20:02 and the decrease around 20:05:03 could be viewed as outliers. But again, since the entire data set is for a day, this could just be normal volatility in exchange rate within that period. However, a more systematic approach of identifying outliers would require using statistical methods which is out of this analysis scope.

    In conclusion, while the data provides a good view of the BBD exchange rate's minute-by-minute performance for a specific day, we may need a broader dataset for a more holistic financial analysis. I recommend using longer historical data, ideally spanning multiple trade cycles, to identify detailed trends, patterns, and outliers.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understand The Overall Trend Of The Exchange Rates

    Upon examining the dataset, the overall trend of the BBD exchange rates show minor fluctuations, suggesting a somewhat stable rate over the given period. There doesn't seem to be a significant increasing or decreasing trajectory. However, there were instances of minor spikes and dips throughout the given time frame.

    2. Identify Seasonality Or Recurring Patterns In The Changes Of Exchange Rates

    On the topic of seasonality, it appears that there may not be a clear cut, visibly recurring pattern based on the available data. To be able to determine any seasonality, we would need to analyze full-year cycle of data, at the very least. However, the data presents no definitive pattern such as weekly or monthly regularity within this timeframe. Further in-depth analysis, perhaps involving Fourier transformation, could be performed given a more robust dataset.

    3. Note Any Outliers, Or Instances Where The Exchange Rate Differs Significantly

    At a glance, no significant outliers or irregularities are instantly noticeable from the dataset. There are some minor variances in value but these seem to align relatively well with the average, general trend. The data jumps slightly at specific intervals, but these fluctuations are still within a consistent range and do not stray considerably from the overall trend. These can likely be attributed to typical market fluctuation and do not stand out as significant outliers.

    Conclusion

    In conclusion, the BBD exchange rates presented show a relatively stable trend with minor changes. Based on the defined boundaries of this analysis, specific external factors and future forecasts were not considered. In terms of identifying patterns, no significant regularity was identified within this limited dataset, and despite minor fluctuations, no significant outliers were found. For a more in-depth analysis that could highlight seasonality and other patterns, a more extensive dataset would likely be required.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Understanding the Overall Trend

    The overall trend of the exchange rates shows a slight increase over time. The data starts with an exchange rate of 0.66743 and ends with 0.66851. However, the rate fluctuating back and forth shows that the increase in rates is not guaranteed or consistent throughout the dataset.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    There doesn't appear to be a distinct or consistent seasonality or recurring pattern in the exchange rates based solely on these data. However, a much-detailed analysis encompassing a bigger dataset might reveal daily or weekly recurring patterns.

    Identifying Outliers

    One potential outlier in the dataset is the exchange rate of 0.67101 on 2024-02-21 03:00:02. This value is significantly higher than the surrounding data points and might indicate a sharp increase in the exchange rate during this time. Similarly, the exchange rate of 0.6659 at 2024-02-22 21:00:02 is a lower outlier.

    Factors Affecting Exchange Rates

    While the trend, seasonality, and outliers can provide some insights into the changes in exchange rates, there are many other potential factors that may affect rates. These include market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, and the release of key financial news and reports. For a more accurate and comprehensive analysis, combining this time-series data with external factors should be considered.

    Please note, this analysis is based purely on the time-series data provided and does not take into account any external event or condition. It is also important to remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and this analysis does not generate any forecast for future rates.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    1. Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The data provided starts from a bbd exchange rate of 0.66584 and ends at 0.66858. The exchange rate appears to be generally increasing over the specified period. The rate moved from around 0.665 to approximately 0.668, indicating an overall upward trend for the BBD exchange rate over this timeframe. Throughout the period, the data show gradual increases combined with minor dips, consistent with the typical fluctuations seen in currency exchange markets.

    2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Regarding seasonality or recurring patterns, a more extended dataset would be preferred for an accurate analysis. However, based on the given data, there seem to be no evident recurring patterns. The rate regularly fluctuates, showing rises and falls, but these do not appear to follow a specific pattern regarding time or magnitude.

    3. Outliers in Exchange Rates

    While almost all rates range around 0.666 to 0.668, an apparent outlier is noticed at a point where the exchange rate jumps to 0.66745. After this spike, it seems to revert back to the previously observed range. Because this instance differs significantly from other data, it could be considered an outlier.

    Please note that this analysis is purely based on the dataset provided and does not take into effect potential impacts from external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports.