Pakistan Rupee Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Based on the given time series data, it can be seen that the PKR exchange rate remains relatively stable throughout the indicated period. The exchange rates range from 0.0049 to 0.00493, and a majority of the data points are hovering around 0.0049 and 0.00492. It should be noted that the rate does not show a clear upward or downward trend overall – rather, it seems to fluctuate slightly within the given range. Thus, the stability of the exchange rate is a prominent feature in this dataset.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

The data provided does not appear to display clear seasonality or regularly recurring patterns. This could possibly be due to the relatively consistent rate throughout the data period. While there are mild fluctuations, there is no evident pattern that repeats at specific regular intervals. It's also worth noting that due to the stable nature of the exchange rate in this dataset, any small deviations or fluctuations could potentially be the result of day-to-day market volatility or other short-term factors, rather than a recurring seasonal effect.

Outliers Analysis

Given the narrow fluctuation range of the PKR exchange rate in this dataset, there are no significant outliers identified. All observed rates fall within a very close range, from 0.0049 to 0.00493. None of the data points significantly stray from this range to be considered outliers. Therefore, no extreme exchange rate spikes or drops are detected in the provided data period.

In conclusion, the time series data of the PKR exchange rate from 2024-04-25 00:00:02 to 2024-04-25 23:55:02 demonstrates a consistent and stable rate with minor fluctuations, no clear seasonality or recurring patterns, and lacks significant outliers.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

After reviewing the data, it is observed that the exchange rates have been relatively stable throughout the time frame given. The rate starts at 0.00493 and has very slight fluctuation throughout. Towards the starting of the dataset until '2024-04-24 05:25:02', the rate remained constant at 0.00493. After that, a very minor increase to 0.00494 was observed for a brief period until '2024-04-24 06:20:02', but then it returned back to 0.00493 and remaining constant until the end of the day with only a slight dip to 0.00492 for particular intervals in the dataset. Thus, there was no significant increase or decrease in the rates over the presented duration.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Upon close inspection, it doesn't appear that there are any discernible seasonal or recurring patterns within this dataset. The exchange rate remains highly stable at 0.00493, with only occasional and minor changes to 0.00492 and 0.00494. The changes do not show any significant regularity or repetition that would suggest a seasonal or recurring pattern.

Outliers in the Dataset

In terms of outliers, given the very stable behaviour of the exchange rates, any rate that significantly deviates from 0.00493 can be considered an outlier. However, even the deviations observed in the dataset (0.00492 and 0.00494) are very minor and do not significantly differ from the common value of 0.00493. Hence, it could be said that this dataset does not contain any notable outliers.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
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Trend

1. Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The general trend of the PKR exchange rate across the dataset is essentially stable. For the time frame in question (from 2024-04-23 00:00:02 to 2024-04-23 23:55:02), there is a slight fluctuation in the PKR exchange rate, but it can be observed that the rate mostly varied around 0.00493 and 0.00491. There are no substantial increases or decreases indicating a volatile market, hence we can say the rates remained quite steady over the period shown.

2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

In the given dataset, it is difficult to discern any clear seasonality or recurring patterns just by looking at the data. The PKR exchange rate appears to be relatively continuous, with no obvious repeating fluctuations that could signify daily or weekly cycles. A more in-depth analysis with additional data would be required to confidently establish the presence of seasonality patterns.

3. Outliers

Again, with the data provided, there doesn't seem to be any major outliers. The exchange rate doesn't appear to have significant differences that would indicate the presence of surprise events or anomalies. However, exchange rates are influenced by a multitude of factors, and absence of outliers in this dataset does not mean that such outliers might not occur in the future.

Summary

In summary, during this period in discussion, the PKR exchange rate remained fairly stable, with no identifiable patterns or outliers present. However, this analysis is based solely on historical data of a single day and cannot predict future exchange rate patterns. External factors such as geopolitical events, economic indicators, and market sentiment could cause future rates to differ significantly from past trends.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates:

Based on the timestamp and associated exchange rate (PKR) provided in the dataset, the exchange rate mostly remained stable at around 0.00493, with a minor fluctuation between 0.00492 and 0.00494. There seem to be no significant increases or decreases in the exchange rates over the period provided.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns:

From the given dataset, there doesn't appear to be a clear seasonal pattern in the PKR exchange rates. However, there are minor variations in the exchange rate, which tend to fluctuate between 0.00492 and 0.00494. Due to the stable trend of the exchange rate over this period, it's hard to identify any recurring patterns solely based on this dataset.

3. Noting any Outliers:

In this dataset, no significant outliers or instances can be observed where the exchange rate deviates sharply from the stable trend observed. All exchange rates over the period provided are within a very tight range of 0.00492 to 0.00494.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Analysis of Time Series Data

Based on the given data, several aspects of trends, seasonality, and possible outliers can be analyzed about the PKR exchange rate over the span of the timestamp.

1. Overall Trends in Exchange Rates

The exchange rates data from 2024-03-22 to 2024-04-19, reveals that the overall trend of the PKR exchange rate appears to be relatively stable. The exchange rate started at 0.00485 at the beginning of the period and ended at 0.00493 near the end of the period. In between, there were mild fluctuations, with the highest rate being 0.00496 and the lowest rate being 0.00485. Therefore, there isn't a significant upward or downward trend over this time frame, but a slight increase can be observed.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Given the available data, it's challenging to clearly identify any seasonality or reoccurring patterns without further time series decomposition analysis. From the initial observation, there are no obvious regular intervals at which the exchange rate significantly increases or decreases which would indicate seasonality. If such patterns exist, they are likely masked by irregular fluctuations and noise. A more sophisticated time series analysis might reveal subtle patterns that can't easily be identified through simple observation.

3. Outliers Identification

Outliers are the observations that deviate significantly from the other values in the dataset. In this dataset, there don't appear to be any extreme outliers present. However, it is noted that the exchange rate rose to 0.00496 on a few occasions, which is slightly higher than the average of the data range but it's not significant enough to be considered a true outlier. A more technical statistical analysis would be required to accurately identify if there are any significant outliers given the narrow range of values.

In conclusion, based on the given exchange rates data, the PKR exchange rate has remained relatively stable over the provided period with slight variations. Further detailed and advanced statistical analyses, including time series decomposition and statistical tests, can provide deeper insights and possibly reveal more subtle trends, seasonalities, and outliers that can't be identified by simple observation.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analysis of PKR Exchange Rate

The provided dataset contains a time series of the PKR exchange rate over a given period. The first step is to organize the data in a readable and interpretable form. The data contains two key elements: the timestamp and the PKR exchange rate associated with that timestamp.

1. Understanding the Overall Trend

The exchange rate of PKR over the period has minor fluctuations. It starts with an exchange rate of 0.00495 and ends at 0.00493, showing a negligible decrease over the period. Overall, the exchange rate can be considered relatively steady, with minor fluctuations over this period.

2. Identifying Seasonality

With the data provided, it is difficult to identify a clear seasonality or recurring pattern based on the changes in exchange rates. Given the minor fluctuations, the data seems to be more noise than signal, suggesting there might not be a predictable seasonal effect impacting the PKR exchange rates within this timeframe. In other words, the daily oscillation within a 24-hour period doesn't reveal noticeable intra-day patterns, and the exchange rates seem stable.

3. Outliers and Instances of Significant Divergence

There does not appear to be any outliers or significant divergence from the general trend in the given data. The PKR exchange rates fluctuate within a very tight range and do not show significant increases or decreases that would suggest outliers.

Please note that this analysis is strictly confined to the provided data and does not factor in external influences such as socio-political changes, global financial news, or market opening/closing times which could potentially impact the exchange rates. Any conclusions drawn are solely data-driven and thus may not fully encapsulate the larger financial dynamics at play.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the PKR exchange rate remained relatively stable over the period under review, with minor fluctuations. There was no obvious seasonality or recurring pattern identifiable, and no obvious outliers were noted. However, for a more comprehensive understanding of the exchange rate behavior, it would be beneficial to include variables reflecting market conditions and global financial events in the analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall trend of the exchange rates

Based upon the provided data, the exchange rate of the Pakistani Rupee (PKR) appears to be relatively stable for the period represented. The PKR exchange rate starts at 0.00493 at the beginning of the period and ends at 0.00494, indicating only a slight increase. The general stability is also reflected in the bulk of the values situated around the same mark. However, there were minimal fluctuations within that range that may be significant in certain contexts, although no dramatic increases or decreases are present in this specific dataset.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Regarding seasonality or recurring patterns, from the provided data, no definite cyclic or periodic pattern can be observed. The data span for almost 24 hours, but without more days of data, any day-specific cycles won't be identified. One interesting point to notice is a small value decrease from 0.00493 to 0.00492 around the 02:00:02 timestamp and a rise back to 0.00493 at around the 05:20:01 timestamp. There is also a slight increase to 0.00495 at around 06:25:02 which lasts roughly an hour before decreasing again. More data would be necessary to make definite conclusions on patterns.

Outliers in Exchange Rates

In this dataset, there are no prominent outliers. The exchange rate fluctuates in a small range between 0.00492 and 0.00495. An outlier would be a value that falls significantly outside of this range. Given the overall stability of the rates during this period, any significant deviation would be easily noticeable and appears not to be present.

Additional Consideration

As per the directions, no further external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports were taken into account. Although, these variables often have consequential impacts on exchange rate fluctuations and could provide insight into more intricate patterns or trends in the data. Including such information in future analyses could substantiate the understanding of exchange rate patterns and deviations.