CFA Franc BCEAO Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis of the XOF Exchange Rate Time Series Data

    The given data represents the XOF exchange rates observed at different timestamp intervals on Feb 29th 2024. Over this day, the exchange rates have been recorded with a frequency of approximately every 5 minutes, providing high-resolution details into the hourly fluctuations.

    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Given the dataset, we observe that the XOF exchange rate remains remarkably stable at 0.00224 for the vast majority of the timeframe studied. There is a single instance, at 17:45:03, when the exchange rate slightly increased to 0.00225. However, it returned to the 0.00224 level in the next recorded timestamp. This suggests that the exchange rate of XOF is highly stable with no significant increases or decreases noticed over the observational period.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns

    With the data at hand, it is difficult to discern any clear seasonality or recurring patterns within the exchange rates. Since we only have data for one day and the rate remains mostly constant, any inference about daily trends or hourly fluctuations would not be reliable. For a more accurate understanding of any possible recurrent behaviors, we would need a more extensive dataset covering several months or years.

    3. Noting any outliers

    The one instance of the rate of 0.00225 at 17:45:03 stands out as an outlier in this dataset. For the entire day, the rate remained consistently at 0.00224 except for this single instance. Therefore, it is logical to label this observation as an outlier. However, it's worth mentioning that this deviation from the common rate is very slight and in a larger or more volatile dataset might not be considered as an outlier.

    To sum up, the XOF exchange rate on February 29, 2024, demonstrates high stability with an insignificant deviation at one point within the day. No discernable patterns or seasonality can be identified from this single-day data snapshot. The data indicates low volatility in the exchange rate for this particular day.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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    Analysis

    After a thorough inspection of the provided dataset, I have comprehensively analyzed the exchange rates over the given timestamps. Here are my findings:

    1. Overall Trend

    The general trend of the exchange rates (XOF) seems to be stable, with a slight increase periodically. Given the time period (just over a day from 2024-02-26 00:00:02 to 2024-02-26 23:55:02), it’s remarkable to note that the exchange rate, which started at 0.00223 raised to 0.00224 around 2024-02-26 06:20:02 and it has stayed almost consistently the same with minor fluctuations. This suggests that the market was quite stable and observed a tiny appreciation in the exchange rate during the mid-day which it sustained towards the end of the day.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    As the given dataset is limited to a single day's data, it's quite challenging to observe any significant seasonal trends or recurring patterns within this short time frame. We generally determine seasonality over a longer period in a time series analysis. Otherwise, the conclusions could be skewed. Therefore, in this dataset, it's hard to pinpoint any particular seasonality or definite recurring patterns.

    3. Outliers and Notable Incidents

    During the inspection of the given data set, no outliers or instances where the exchange rate differed significantly were noticed. The exchange rate remained within a relatively tight range, with the minimum rate recorded at 0.00223 and the maximum at 0.00224. Thus, it seems there weren't any major external shocks or market events that significantly affected the exchange rate during the period under observation.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Let's begin the analysis of the dataset you have provided and address each of your goals.

    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    From a preliminary review of the time series data, the exchange rates of XOF over the given period remain fairly stable. Most of the exchange rates range from 0.00220 to 0.00224. Occasionally, the rate increases to 0.00224 or decreases to 0.00220, implying a stability in exchange rates with slight fluctuations. However, a more comprehensive analysis with a graphical representation would be beneficial in understanding the currency trends over time.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates.

    Given the dataset, it's difficult to identify any obvious pattern or seasonality of exchange rates. The value appears to fluctuate within a small range (0.00220 - 0.00224) over the specified timeframe. With the addition of graphical methods or a deeper statistical analysis method such as autocorrelation, the identification of seasonal patterns might be more precise.

    3. Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality.

    Within the current dataset, significant outliers do not appear to exist. The exchange rate does not exhibit drastic fluctuations, but rather remains within the compact range of 0.00220 to 0.00224, indicating a low volatility. Thus, in this dataset, there are no apparent instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from its usual fluctuations.

    Please note, this analysis is based solely on the dataset provided and does not take into account any possible external influencing factors such as economic events, market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Furthermore, as per the request, no future forecasts for the exchange rates were generated.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Let's go ahead with the expectation that this data provided is accurate, comprehensive, and has no missing values from the timestamps. The following are the key observations made from the data:

    1. Understanding the Overall Trend

    The overall trend of the values shows minimal changes, staying within a very narrow range. The XOF exchange rate fluctuates between 0.00221 and 0.00223 throughout the data set's period. There's no significant appreciation or depreciation in the currency noted, indicating a stable and potentially strong economy. Therefore, one can say that the overall trend of the exchange rates within this period is relatively stable.

    2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    At a glance, it's challenging to identify seasonality directly from this data set because of the stable rates and the short period covered. However, it seems there's a slight rise to 0.00223 and a drop to 0.00221 approximately every day. This recurrence might not be notable in a broader context but may become an important routine if examined at a micro level. More data spanning across multiple years and covering different seasons would be even more helpful in identifying seasonality or recurring patterns.

    3. Noting Any Outliers

    In the provided data set, there appear to be no significant outliers. Each value falls within the narrow range of 0.00221 to 0.00223. Hence the exchange rate remains consistent, and no instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the established range are noted.

    Disclaimer and Suggestions for Further Investigations

    The analysis conducted doesn't consider any external factors like weekends/holidays, the opening/closing hours of financial markets, or the release of key financial news and reports. However, for a much more in-depth and insightful understanding of the XOF exchange rate, it's important to consider such factors in future analyses. But despite those limitations, the data provided offers an insightful snapshot of the exchange rate's behaviour over the period in question.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    General Trend of XOF Exchange Rates

    Looking at the data, it can be seen that the exchange rates (XOF) fluctuate within a very tight range, specifically between 0.00222 and 0.00224 during this entire cycle. It doesn't depict a clear increasing or decreasing trend; instead, the rates appear to be fairly stable. The minor fluctuations suggest neither a significant devaluation or appreciation of the currency.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    As observed from the data, there isn't any apparent seasonality or recurring patterns within the given time period. The exchange rate doesn't show any significant changes during different times of the day or on different days within the provided series. This could be attributed to the stability of the economy and the respective foreign exchange market.

    Outliers in the XOF Exchange Rates

    No prominent outliers were observed in the provided data. All rates seem fairly consistent and fall within close proximity of each other. Therefore, the instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the general trend are either non-existent or very few. However, the identification of outliers would require a more detailed statistical analysis which is beyond the scope of this evaluation based on what has been provided.

    Remarks

    Despite the minute fluctuations in the XOF exchange rates, it demonstrated relative stability. However, it's crucial to remember that this is purely a historical analysis. Other factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, etc., were not considered, which may affect the rates. Additionally, this analysis should not be used to forecast future rates.