CFA Franc BCEAO Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

The dataset indicates that the overall trend of the exchange rate remained relatively stable throughout this period. For the majority of timestamps, the exchange rate held at a value of 0.00223. However, there were small increases to 0.00224 at certain points, indicating slight positive fluctuations in the exchange rate.

Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns

Based on the provided data, it is challenging to identify clear patterns of seasonality in the exchange rate changes given the high consistency of the dataset. However, there are instances where the rate increases to 0.00224 slightly, but these fluctuations do not appear to follow a discernible recurring sequence and could just be part of the normal variability of the financial markets.

Noting any outliers

Outliers in the dataset, or instances where the exchange rate deviated significantly from the 0.00223 trend, are minimal and do not appear to disrupt the dominant trend of stability in the exchange rate. There are slight increases in value to 0.00224 but these are relatively small and infrequent. Overall, the dataset doesn't show major outliers in the general trend.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Daily High:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Upon inspection of the dataset, the overall trend of the XOF exchange rate on April 24, 2024, appears to be stable. A majority of the data points suggest a constant exchange rate of 0.00223, with occasional fluctuations evident in the data. These fluctuating points occur at specific time points where the exchange rate changes briefly to 0.00224 before reverting to the dominant rate of 0.00223.

Seasonality Analysis

Given the time duration is limited within a day, long term seasonality could not be observed. The exchange rate presents a consistent behavior rather than obvious cyclical patterns throughout the day. It's suggested that higher frequency data (seconds or milliseconds) might be more suitable for seasonality analysis.

Outliers Analysis

Considering the general stability of the rate, variations in the data occur when the exchange rate temporarily shifts to 0.00224 could be treated as outliers. However, these variations are minor and not significant enough to deviate the overall pattern of stability. The dataset does not appear to contain any complex anomalies or instances of volatile fluctuation.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Trend of the Exchange Rates

Based on the given data, it appears that the exchange rate remained relatively stable throughout the observed period. Dispensing with minor fluctuations, the overall trend indicates a consistent exchange rate of 0.00223. There was a minor dip to 0.00222 observed on 2024-04-23 02:35:02 and a minor rise back to 0.00223 later on but these are minute changes and might not signify a significant trend.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in the Changes of Exchange Rates

The data shows no clear indication of any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates. Given that the exchange rate remained practically consistent (0.00223) throughout the entire observed period, it appears that there are no seasonal patterns that affected this rate noticeably. However, a more extended series of data would provide more insight into potentially hidden periodic variations.

3. Noting any Outliers in the Data

Considering the consistency in the exchange rate, it's hard to identify any outliers. The momentary dip to 0.00222 could be considered an irregularity, but it is hard to label it as an outlier given its close proximity to the consistent exchange rate of 0.00223. However, these minute differences might carry significant weight in high volume trading, but this is outside our current analysis.

Briefly stated, the data presents a largely consistent exchange rate with no obvious cyclical patterns or outliers. Further analysis would require a more extensive timeframe or inclusion of additional influencing factors.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overview of Overall Trend

According to the provided time series data, the value of the exchange rate has remained consistent at 0.00223. The rate has not shown any significant variations; hence, the trend did not generally increase, decrease or change. It remained stable throughout the period provided.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

With the given data on the XOF exchange rate, there is not sufficient evidence to note any seasonality or recurring patterns. The exchange rate showed a persistent figure during different time intervals. Hence, as per this dataset, we cannot determine any seasonality patterns.

Identification of Outliers

In the provided dataset, there is only one instance where the exchange value differs, which is 0.00222. This could be considered as a potential outlier as it significantly diverges from the general occurrence of 0.00223. Otherwise, the majority of the exchange rate remains the same. However, without sufficient variance in the data and additional context, it's challenging to confirm if this point is a true outlier or just a minor fluctuation.

Please note, given the nature of the series data and the relatively small changes in value, it would be helpful to have more larger deviations from the mean, in order to gain deeper insights and draw more comprehensive conclusions from the dataset.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

Over the provided period, the exchange rate (XOF) overall seems to remain relatively stable. It often oscillates between 0.00222 and 0.00227, which gives an impression of a non-trending influence over time.

The data does not suggest a persistent increasing or decreasing trend in the exchange rates (XOF) over the period shown. Despite the fluctuations being minor, they are dispersed throughout the whole period. This suggests that the exchange rate is relatively steady, often remaining in the vicinity of 0.00224.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Upon overviewing the dataset, there does not appear to be any obvious seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates. Whilst there exist fluctuations in the exchange rate, these occurrences do not necessarily follow a specific pattern or regular cycle. The reasons behind these changes may vary and could attribute to a multitude of different factors beyond the scope of this dataset.

Outliers and Significant Divergences

Looking through this dataset, the exchange rate values are relatively homogenized. There are a few instances where the rates reach the extremity at 0.00227. However, these occurrences are not significant enough to be considered outliers since the exchange rate often fluctuates within a relatively narrow band.

The exchange rate (XOF) does not appear to diverge too significantly from its average throughout the data. There are no considerable jumps or dives that would mark an unexpected change in the rate based solely on the existing trend and range of the given dataset.

Conclusion

In conclusion, this analysis suggests a generally stable exchange rate over time, with minor fluctuations that do not form an identifiable recurring pattern or seasonality. The range of rate changes is narrow and there were no extreme outliers detected within this dataset.

This high-level analysis provides an impression of steady exchange rates. It's important to remember that this does not consider external factors such as market forces, international financial news, or economic policy shifts, which could have additional effects on exchange rate patterns.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

The overall trend of the XOF exchange rates over the timeline provided in the dataset remains relatively stable. The range of the exchange rate is between 0.00223 and 0.00225. This stability suggests soundness and predictability within the system the rates are in. Despite minor fluctuations in the rate over the period, the noticeable variations remain within the range.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Given the data, it's not easy to confirm the presence of any significant seasonality or recurring patterns in terms of the hours of the day. However, further analysis with more data might uncover broader trends on a weekly, monthly, or yearly scale. It's crucial to proceed with caution, as these findings are based on the available data provided and any changes in this data might modify the outcome.

Outliers Identification

From the data provided, there don't appear to be notable outliers, which would represent instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the stable trend observed. The slight variations in the exchange rate that do occur are nominal and seem to be part of the normal fluctuation as opposed to being anomalies or outliers. Accordingly, the predictability of this rate could be deemed quite high based on this specific past data.

In conclusion, this data exhibits a stable exchange rate with subtle fluctuations but no visible recurring pattern or clear outliers. Please note that this trend analysis provides an understanding based on past data and it does not forecast future exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

The dataset provided is indeed a time series data that shows the changes in exchange rates (XOF) over time. Given the nature of the data, I am able to conduct the following analysis.

1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

From the dataset, the exchange rates seem to be relatively stable with only minor variations throughout the time period examined. There are two distinct values throughout the data set, 0.00223 and 0.00224 and these alternate with no discernable pattern. Thus, it can be concluded that the exchange rate remains stable for the majority of the duration covered by this dataset.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Observing the data, there is no obvious seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates. The exchange rate repeatedly alternates between 0.00223 and 0.00224 without a clear or predictable pattern. Therefore, we cannot assert that there is a discernable seasonal trend or recurring pattern in the dataset.

3. Outliers in the Dataset

Given the data, there don't appear to be any significant outliers. All values are either 0.00223 or 0.00224, which are very close to each other. There are no instances where the exchange rate deviates significantly from these two values. Thus, it can be concluded that there are no noticeable outliers in this dataset.

Based on this analysis, we see a remarkably stable exchange rate over time, with no clear patterns or outliers. This suggests that the XOF exchange rate was relatively consistent over the duration captured in the provided dataset. However, it should be noted that a deeper analysis or different time window selection may reveal trends or anomalies that are not immediately visible in this particular data set.