Kwacha Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

Based on the provided dataset, the overall trend of MWK exchange rate indicates more or less stable rates. Except when we look at data at 13:10:03-14:30:03, when it decreases from 0.00079 to 0.00078 and back to 0.00079 at 13:30:03, and then keeps falling till 20:10:02 from 0.00079 to 0.00078. However, these are minute variations that don't establish any significant upward or downward trend given that they return to stability.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

With respect to identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates, the given dataset does not provide enough information for this determination. The data provided spans a single day, and seasonality in exchange rates would typically be identified over longer periods of time, such as monthly or quarterly data, over multiple years.

Outliers and Unexpected Rates

As far as outliers are concerned, the dataset does not contain any extreme values that would suggest significant deviations from the average exchange rate. All values are either 0.00079 or 0.00078 which are close enough to not be considered outliers. It's probable that during the time period of the data collection, no major financial news or events occurred that significantly affected currency exchange rates.

Final Statement

It's important to note that while analyzing such data, it's always beneficial to have more diversified data spanning over a longer period of time. This would provide a better understanding of the rates and their fluctuations and might lead to more accurate insights. Remember that exchange rates are volatile and influenced by multiple local and global factors.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Upon examining the data, several key observations have been made:

Overall Trend

The exchange rate of MWK over the period has remained constant at a value of 0.00079. There do not appear to be any noticeable increasing or decreasing trends within the given time series data.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Considering the MWK rate is constant throughout the dataset, no seasonality or recurring patterns can be identified. The exchange rate has remained stable and unchanging over the entire period. Typically, factors such as market demand, political stability, and economic performance would cause fluctuations in this rate, but none of these factors appear to have an effect as per the given data.

Outliers

Given the entirety of the data shows a constant exchange rate, no outliers can be identified. An outlier in this context would be a significant departure from the 0.00079 value, which does not occur at any point in the dataset.

If the currency exchange data were not constant, a complex analysis through visual, statistical, and machine learning techniques would be required to identify trends, seasonality, and outliers in the data. However, given the unchanging nature of this dataset, such techniques are not necessary in this case.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Upon my analysis, the dataset from 2024-04-23 demonstrates a largely stable MWK exchange rate throughout the entire day. The MWK exchange rate remains constant at 0.00079 for the vast majority of the timestamps provided. It's noticeable that the exchange rate experienced a slight reduction at 12:10:02, decreasing from 0.00079 to 0.00078 where it remained constant till 20:00:02. At 20:05:02, the exchange rate returns back to the initial rate at 0.00079 persisting that till the end of the given period. While this analysis is based on a single day worth of data, it does show stability in the exchange rate with slight adjustments during the day.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Regarding the seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates, the data provided does not seem to exhibit any clear seasonal trends or recurring patterns. However, the change experienced on this specific day at 12:10:02 to 0.00078 and the subsequent change back to 0.00079 at 20:05:02 could indicate a possible daily pattern. More data spanning across multiple days/weeks would be required to conclusively establish this pattern.

Identification of Outliers

Based on the data provided, there is no outlier detected. An outlier in this context would be a significant deviation from the constant value of 0.00079 or 0.00078, and such deviation is not presented within this dataset. In summary, the data reflects a high degree of stability in the MWK exchange rate throughout the documented period.

Summary of Last Month

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analysis of MWK Exchange Rate Time Series Data

From the dataset provided, the exchange rates (MWK) throughout the period considered are constant at a value of 0.00079. Despite the extensive data in the given timestamp, the MWK exchange rate did not exhibit any changes.

Trend Analysis

• In terms of trends in the data, it can be inferred that the exchange rate has remained horizontal or stationary as it has been unchanged at the status quo of 0.00079 throughout the entire observed period.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

• Given that the data is stationary, we are unable to observe any seasonality or cyclic patterns in the data. The absence of variability or volatility in the exchange rate could be attributed to economic stability or a particularly stable period in the currency exchange market.

Outliers Analysis

• As the rates remain constant throughout, no outliers can be identified from this dataset. All observations are consistently at the noted exchange rate of 0.00079, hence no data points significantly deviate from the mean.

In conclusion, this analysis represents a rather unusual case of complete stability in currency exchange rates for the period observed. It may be important to further investigate the reasons behind such a static situation and check the reliability of the data source. It might also be beneficial to compare this with other metrics or datasets to identify potential reasons impacting this steadiness.

Summary of Last Week

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

Upon close inspection of the dataset, the exchange rate of MWK remains consistently stable throughout the time period analysed, maintaining a rate of 0.00078 for a significant duration. There is a slight change noticed on 2024-04-04 10:00:03, where the rate slightly drops to 0.00077. However, this drop seems temporary as the rate quickly recovers to its original value of 0.00078 in the subsequent data point. Later, from 2024-04-08 22:00:02 onwards, the exchange rate shows a slight increase, fluctuating between 0.00079 and 0.00080.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

For the given dataset, there does not appear to be any clear indicators of seasonality or recurring patterns. The MWK exchange rate seems to be independent of the timestamp as it remains remarkably steady throughout the entire period. This unvarying trend suggests that the rate doesn't fluctuate with respect to a specific time of the day or a specific day of the week.

Outliers and Significant Deviations

Considering the overall consistency of the exchange rate, there are a few instances where it deviates from the norm, slightly increasing or decreasing. On 2024-04-04 10:00:03, the value decreases to 0.00077 which can be considered an outlier since it's lower than the generally observed rate of 0.00078. Similarly, starting from 2024-04-08 22:00:02, the rates show a small increment, reaching 0.00080 on 2024-04-12 14:00:01, which is a deviation away from the usual rate.

Please note that these deviations are relatively minor, and may not significantly impact the overall exchange rate trend of MWK. However, they stand out due to the consistent nature of MWK's exchange rate in the given dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analysis of the MWK Exchange Rate Trend

The dataset provided is from April 15, 2024 to April 19, 2024. During this period, the MWK exchange rates ranged between 0.00079 and 0.0008. It started at 0.00079, went up to 0.0008, and then returned to 0.00079. Therefore, there was a fluctuation during this time, but the rate remained generally stable. There is no clear trend of continuous increase or decrease over this period.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Gauging from the data provided, there does not appear to be a strong seasonality or recurring patterns within the context of the date range given. The data provides exchange rates over a period of five days, which is short when trying to establish recurring patterns or seasonality. However, the data does alternate primarily between two values - 0.0008 and 0.00079. Over the five days, no particular day exhibited a consistently higher or lower value than the other days.

Outliers in the Exchange Rates

• On the first day (April 15), the exchange rate remained constant at 0.00079, thus there are no outliers.
• On the second day (April 16), while the exchange rate initially remained at 0.00079, it increased to 0.0008 at 07:00:02 and stayed there for nearly the rest of the day except for three instances at 16:00:02, 17:00:03, and 18:00:03.
• From the third day (April 17) to the fifth day (April 19), the exchange rate mainly remained at 0.0008, with a few instances at 0.00079. These moments where the rate dropped back to 0.00079 could be considered as minor outliers.

It's important to note that due to the minimal dataset provided, the fluctuations observed may be part of the normal fluctuations present in financial data and may not necessarily signify outliers. Further investigation would be needed with a more extensive dataset to make more robust observations and understand the broader trend and pattern.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Upon close inspection of the exchange rate dataset, a very stable pattern is observed. The exchange rates for MWK remain constant at 0.00079 throughout the provided timestamp record. There is no apparent increase, decrease, or significant fluctuations during this period. This suggests a stable exchange rate market for MWK at this time.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns Analysis

Given the static nature of the exchange rate for MWK, which remained constant at 0.00079 throughout, we are unable to identify any seasonality or recurring patterns from this dataset. Seasonality or recurring patterns typically exist when there are periodic and predictable changes in the exchange rate, which is not the case with this particular dataset.

Outliers Analysis

Since the exchange rate remains the same during the entire period, no outliers can be detected. Outliers typically present themselves as significant deviation from the established trend or pattern. In this instance, the constant exchange rate means there is no significant difference, hence no outliers.

Conclusion

In summary, the analysis of the time-series dataset for the MWK exchange rates revealed a highly stable trend with no observable seasonality, recurring patterns or outliers. However, this analysis is purely based on the historical data provided and does not take into account other possible macroeconomic factors that might affect currency exchange rates.