Yemeni Rial Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

By looking at the dataset provided, it's quite evident that the exchange rates over the period have generally been stable. The exchange rate, however, did vary slightly throughout the time period observed. It ranged mostly between 0.00545 and 0.00548 with the majority of the time scarcely moving closer to the higher or lower end of this range. The overall stability suggests that the market conditions were mostly consistent and there were no major occurrences causing substantial swings in the exchange rate. This is perhaps because the time-series is too short to observe any significant variations.

Identifying Any Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Given this dataset, it's a bit challenging to determine any seasonality or recurring patterns. The exchange rate remained fairly stable throughout the period, and no clear daily, or weekly patterns were observed. Similarly, there doesn't seem to be an identifiable pattern in the slight fluctuation in rates as they keep around the same minimal pivot point (0.00545 - 0.00548). Any perceived pattern would likely be coincidental in this context, considering the short duration of the dataset.

Noting Any Outliers

Considering the exchange rates provided in the data, there do not appear to be any significant outliers. In fact, the rates seem to be somewhat adhering to a fairly tight oscillation around a central value. The notable changes are very marginal and don't seem to be significant enough to be considered as outliers. Most deviations from the central pivot point are less than 0.00003, which could be viewed more as a natural part of market volatility than a data outlier. Therefore, based on the available data, we can conclude that there are no significant outliers that need be factored into the analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Based on the dataset provided, it appears that there is a certain level of stability in the exchange rates. The exchange rate starts at the 0.00546 mark and maintains this position for a considerable length of time. Around the midway of the time series data - specifically timestamp 2024-04-24 05:50:02 - the exchange rate starts to witness a slight increase to 0.00547 and it stayed unchanged for a large portion of the data after this point. Thereafter, the exchange rate increased further to 0.00548 at timestamp 2024-04-24 07:45:03. Therefore, the general trend of the exchange rates over the given period is a slight increase.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

As for seasonal patterns or recurring behaviours, the dataset does not provide clear evidence of any obvious seasonality or cyclic behaviour in the exchange rate. For the majority of this dataset the exchange rate remains at a steady 0.00546 and 0.00547. These stable periods are broken by a few slight increases to a rate of 0.00548. These shifts do not appear to follow a clearly identifiable pattern in terms of timing or frequency.

Identification of Outliers

Examining the dataset at hand, there are no noticeable outliers or instances where the exchange rate significantly deviates from the general trend. The exchange rates tend not to fluctuate wildly, with the rates only shifting between 0.00546, 0.00547, and 0.00548 throughout the entire period.

The dataset does not show any dramatic or unexpected jumps in the exchange rates that would normally suggest the presence of outliers or anomalies. Therefore, based on the available data, we can conclude that there are no significant outliers in this dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Overall Trend

From the data provided, we can see that the YER exchange rate has been mostly stable throughout the time period observed. The exchange rate had hung around 0.00546 - 0.00548 with a little deviation. It implies that during this time period, there have been little to no significant changes in the exchange rate's overall trend.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

The data set does not indicate any clear seasonality or recurring patterns in the YER exchange rate. The rate seems to maintain a uniform pattern across all timestamps without any significant rises or falls. Such a pattern could suggest that the time of day, week, month, or year does not have a significant impact on the value exchange rate in this time series data.

3. Outliers

Although there is a slight variation within the dataset with a rate falling to 0.00545 at rare instances, it does not significantly deviate from the average. We could say that these instances classify as minor outliers within the data set, but the dataset predominantly reflects stability, rather than volatility.

Conclusion

This analysis focused solely on the numbers provided within the time series data set. It did not take into account external factors such as opening and closing times of the market, economic calendars, geopolitical events, or other such factors that may influence the exchange rate. Also, an essential point to note, this period appears to be relatively stable for the YER exchange rate. The analysis of your financial data shows it to be extremely steady with minimal variation outliers.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Exchange Rate Trend Analysis

The given dataset represents exchange rates at different points in time during the day. One of the key observations from the data is the stability of the exchange rate. Over the sampled period, the exchange rate for YER (Yemeni currency) varied only slightly between 0.00547 and 0.00549. This stability suggests a well-controlled currency with minor fluctuations within the sampled hours. Please note that this analysis is restricted to the provided data and does not account for broader-time scale changes in exchange rates.

Seasonality

There is no clear evidence of seasonality from the sampled data. The exchange rate seems stable and changes, where they occur, do not appear to follow any discernible cyclic pattern related to the time of the day or any other clear recurring time-based factors. Outside the given data, seasonality may be observable due to macroeconomic indicators, which are not reflected in these short intervals.

Outliers

From the given data, no significant outliers were observed. The exchange rate remained well within the mentioned range, aligned with the general trend of uniformity.

Note: This dataset spans mostly within 3 values of the exchange rate and doesn't show any significant changes to the rate within a single day. We may need data spanning over an extended timeframe such as months or years in order to detect any significant trends, patterns, or outliers.

This analysis is based purely on the dataset provided and does not consider external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial information. Hence the conclusions should be interpreted in light of this.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding The Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The overall trend of the exchange rates from the given dataset indicates a slight increase throughout the period. We start with an exchange rate of 0.00542 at timestamp "2024-03-22 02:00:02" and end with 0.00549 at timestamp "2024-04-19 12:00:03".

The changes are not large but by taking the initial and final data points into consideration, it can be said the exchange rate was generally on the rise. However, the increase is not steady or consistent. From time to time, the exchange rate shows minor drops but the general long-term trend exhibits a mild increase.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

From the dataset, it's hard to conclusively identify any seasonality or recurring patterns. The fluctuations in the exchange rates shown in the dataset are minimal and don't show a clear-cut pattern that can be linked with a specific time or recurring event.

However, there is some mild fluctuation that can often be seen within an interval of few hours or between timestamps on the following days. But such fluctuations are too minimal to be classified as a clear pattern or seasonality.

Noting Any Outliers

This dataset doesn’t seem to have any significant outliers. There are no instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend. The currency exchange rates seem to fluctuate mildly within a very close range.

No exchange rate value is too far removed from the others, and there's no specific point that dramatically disrupts the overall mild increase trend. Hence, no clear outliers can be identified from this dataset.

It's always a good practice to have a graphical visualization to understand time-series data better. But as per the limitations set, we're only confining the understanding to argumentative analysis here.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overview of the Trend in the Time-series Data

From the data provided, there seems to be a very slight upward trend in the exchange rate of the YER over the time period shown. The exchange rate starts at around 0.00549 and ends at around 0.0055. There are also several periods within the range where the exchange rate remains constant at 0.00549, 0.0055, or 0.00551 for some time, indicating periods of relative stability in the currency.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

No clear seasonality or recurring daily patterns can be identified from the data provided. The data does not show any significant peaks or valleys that recur at daily, weekly or monthly intervals. Thus, other than the very slight upward trend, the exchange rate seems to change in an irregular pattern over the period shown.

Outliers in the Data

The dataset provided does not contain any obvious outliers. Outliers are usually data points that differ significantly from the trend or expected values in a dataset. In this case, all the exchange rates provided fall within a narrow range between 0.00549 and 0.00552, with none of them deviating largely from these levels. Therefore, based on the data provided, there don't seem to be any outliers.

External Factors

The provided dataset contains timestamp information, but no other contextual details that could help to identify the effects of factors such as market operating hours, weekends, holidays, or the release of key financial news or reports on the YER exchange rate. However, as requested, this analysis does not consider these external factors. It is purely a review and analysis of the provided time series data.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analysis of the Exchange Rates Trend

From the dataset provided, overall, the exchange rates (YER) are largely stable, fluctuating slightly within a limited range. Most of the values are between 0.0055 and 0.00549. However, there are slightly more frequent observations of small increases from 0.0055 to 0.00551, but these changes are not consistent enough to indicate a strong, upward trend.

Identifying Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

In this dataset, no clear seasonality or recurring patterns can be identifed right away. Its variation is very minimal, and seems to fluctuate around a specific range, rather than following an apparent time-based pattern. Any detailed analysis to identify hidden patterns at a more granular level might require additional statistical techniques.

Noting Outliers in Exchange Rates

Outliers are those observations that deviate significantly from the other observations in the dataset. In this dataset, there are no significant outliers. All the exchange rates are near 0.0055 and closely grouped. In this span, the maximum value is 0.00551, and the minimum is 0.00548, which indicates that there are no significant jumps or drops, and the rates remain stable and consistent within this small range.