Lari Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis of Exchange Rates

    After examining the provided set of exchange rates (GEL), it can be noted that the dataset spans over a 24-hour period on February 29, 2024. The data indicates fluctuations in exchange rates at five-minute intervals.

    Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The general trend of the exchange rates throughout the 24-hour window can be described as gradually increasing. At the start of the day, the exchange rate was 0.51036, and it increased to 0.51218 by the end. The maximum value reached during the day was 0.51252, while the minimum was 0.50914, providing a range of fluctuation.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    After closely inspecting the data, no apparent seasonal or recurring pattern is noticeable within this 24-hour period. Any such patterns would likely become apparent over a longer span of data. Within the provided data, periods of steady, gradual increases are interrupted by minor drops, but these do not appear to occur with regularity.

    Identifying Outliers

    The provided data does not show any significant outliers where the exchange rate deviates from the expected value based on the overall trend. While there are minor fluctuations throughout the day (as is normal for this kind of financial data), all the exchange rates remained within a relatively close range, with no unexpected spikes or dips.

    In conclusion, this 24-hour snapshot of the GEL exchange rate indicates a general upward trend. Major deviations or patterns are not apparent within this short timeframe, and a larger dataset spanning multiple days or weeks might provide additional insights.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis

    Without the use of any specialized graphical tool, manual examination of the data is required. Based on the data, we have the following figures:

    • Minimum exchange rate: 0.50925
    • Maximum exchange rate: 0.51154
    • Range of exchange rate change: 0.00229

    This already indicates that the currency exchange rate is relatively stable for the duration given within this dataset.

    Overall Trend

    The general trend appears to be a slight increase in the exchange rate over the given period. The minimum value is seen around the beginning of the data at 00:05:02 with a rate of 0.50925. The maximum value is at 07:00:03 with a rate of 0.51154.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    By looking at the data, it seems no apparent seasonality or pattern on a daily basis. We would need data that spans over a longer period to accurately determine any seasonality or cyclical trend. Furthermore, more sophisticated tools or statistical tests would be required for this that are beyond a simple analysis.

    Outliers

    No outliers are immediately apparent in the dataset. Everything seems to fluctuate around a defined range, with no drastic jump or drop in the exchange rate. In addition, the range between the max and min values isn't particularly notable, suggesting limited volatility.

    Please note that this is a simplified analysis and a more detailed and accurate analysis would necessitate use of specialised statistical software or models along with a larger dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    From the provided timestamps, it can be observed that the exchange rate (GEL) shows a gentle fluctuation throughout the day. There is no clear trend of a consistent increase or decrease over time. However, throughout this particular day, there are several instances where the rate increases and decreases.

    Seasonality Analysis

    In terms of seasonality, the data does not present a clear pattern of recurring events or changes in the exchange rates at certain times. However, slight fluctuations, possibly tied to market activities could potentially be linked to specific time intervals. Remember that this conclusion is derived solely from this given dataset and any identified seasonality might not hold true for different contexts or periods.

    Outlier Analysis

    No significant outliers can be identified in this dataset. All the exchange rates provided for this one-day scope appear within a tight range, with variations being very small. Hence, no instance stands out with a significantly different exchange rate from the rest.

    Remember, this analysis is purely statistical, grounded on the given dataset and does not consider any external influences, such as key financial news, market hours and geopolitical events, which have a inevitable impact on the real-world fluctuations of exchange rates.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Data Overview

    The given data is a sequence of time and Gel exchange rate. Gel exchange rates seem to fluctuate between 0.49846 to 0.51321 during the mentioned time intervals in the dataset.

    Overall Trend

    The overall trend of the exchange rates seems to be slightly increasing over the entire given period. The minimum value is 0.49846 at 2024-01-31 10:00:03 whereas the maximum value is 0.51321 at 2024-02-20 14:00:03. Besides the occasional dips, the exchange rate shows a gradual increase suggesting that the currency might be getting stronger.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    A thorough examination of the sample data provided does not manifest any evident seasonality or recurring patterns. This might be due to the short time frame captured in the data. Seasonality in financial time series data like exchange rates would ideally be observed in a larger dataset spanning multiple months or years.

    Outliers

    There doesn't appear to be any significant outliers in the dataset based on the provided values. Most of the values fall within a tight range. But it is important to note, the detection of outliers can be more accurate employing statistical measures, like Z-score or IQR score. This requires more advanced statistical analysis than the basic description provided here.

    Therefore, the provided data manifests a slight upward trend in the Gel exchange rates over the selected timeframe, without any noticeable seasonal effects or significant outliers.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overview Analysis of the Exchange Rates

    The dataset provided represents the changes in the GEL exchange rates with timestamps ranging from February 19, 2024, to February 23, 2024. Overall, the exchange rate shows a slight variability and a major decrease from 0.51132 to 0.50939 during this period, indicating a general downward trend.

    Identification of Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    During the short window of time covered by this data, it's difficult to identify definite seasonal trends or recurring patterns with absolute certainty. However, there seems to be a pattern of slight increase in the exchange rate during the early hours (01:00 to 03:00), followed by a small decrease during later hours (up until 07:00). Again, the exchange rate gradually increases towards noon. This pattern, however, requires a more robust statistical analysis for validation and may not hold true for larger duration.

    Noting Any Outliers

    Upon reviewing the data, a few potential outliers can be identified where the exchange rates have shown significant deviation from the general trend. These instances are specifically visible in the timestamps '2024-02-19 18:00:03' (0.51236) and '2024-02-20 14:00:03' (0.51321), where exchange rates peaked quite a bit before following the general downward trend. There's another noticeable drop at '2024-02-20 17:00:02' with the value dip to 0.51124.

    However, without a proper model or rule for trend generation, these potential outliers are determined just by a visual inspection and it needs a more rigorous statistical detection for confirmation.

    Key External Factors

    The request mentioned the analysis performed should not consider specific external events like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, and hence such events have not been factored. However, as a note, it must be emphasized that these factors can greatly influence the exchange rates, and for a holistic analysis, they are vital to be considered.

    Please note, while this is offering insight into the data trend, it needs more data and statistical inference for any conclusive results.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    To thoroughly analyze the provided dataset, I will investigate it in three ways: the general trend, potential seasonal or recurring patterns, and detecting any outliers.

    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    Based on the given data, there seems to be a slightly increasing trend in the exchange rates from the start to the end of the provided dataset. The GEL exchange rate opened at 0.50869 and closed at 0.50944, reflecting a small increase over the period covered in the data.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, these might not be very evident on such a brief dataset. To identify these patterns, it usually requires data that spans over multiple training and testing periods. That being said, without further data or applied analysis, no decisive conclusion about the presence of recurring patterns can be drawn from the data at hand.

    Outliers Identification

    The analysis of outliers requires calculating the data's statistical measures such as mean and variance. Outliers typically exhibit values significantly deviating from the average. However, this dataset appears relatively stable with a slight upward trend, meaning that there aren't any immediate obvious outliers on initial inspection. A more detailed analysis would require statistical computations, which lie beyond the scope of this request.

    In conclusion, the data set shows a minor upward trend in GEL Exchange Rates. However, the detection of seasonality patterns or outliers would require a more sophisticated statistical analysis or a more extended dataset.