Lari Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Based on the provided dataset and timestamps, your exchange rates slightly fluctuate over time. The numerical values show small to negligible decreases or increases every time interval and there is no major significant increase or decrease noticed. The exchange rate started from 0.5099 at initial time and went to 0.5094 by the end, this gives somewhat a negative slope.

Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

It's a little challenging to spot any recurring patterns or seasonality just from this set of numbers without a chart or without aggregating and analysing the data at a larger time scale like per hour or per day. However, as per the provided data we can observe that there are minor fluctuations observed in the exchange rate and it oscillates up and down within a definite small range. This can potentially be a hint of some seasonality but it's not clear-cut without conducting a more thorough time series analysis.

Outliers in the Dataset

Overall, the dataset seems consistent and the value fluctuations are within a small range. Hence, it's hard to pinpoint any specific outliers based on the current dataset. The variations in the data seem to be sticking to a similar scale and perturbations, thus indicating lesser chances of unusual outliers.

Additional Factors

External factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports can considerably impact exchange rates, inducing irregular fluctuations or extreme outliers in the data. However, in absence of these external factors or specific instructions about considering them, the analysis was done only on the basis of the numbers provided in the dataset.

Please do note, for a more precise and detailed analysis, visualization of the trend and deploying some statistical analysis techniques could be necessary and beneficial.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend

From a cursory analysis, the exchange rate of GEL appears to show a slight upward trend over time. Despite the trend's slightness, the rate seems to be slightly increasing since the starting rate of 0.51085 and the ending rate of 0.50993 show a minimal decline.

Seasonality/Recurring Patterns

Due to the limited amount of data provided, identifying a definitive seasonality or recurring patterns can be challenging. Nevertheless, there are some fluctuations in the exchange rates that might hint at potential patterns - although these would need to be confirmed with more data. The exchange rate seems to demonstrate a short-term repetitive rise and fall pattern throughout the day, though further analysis would be required to establish the veracity and consistency of this pattern.

Outliers

There do not seem to be many dramatic outliers in this dataset - the exchange rates tend to stay within a relatively small range. However, there are a few instances where the exchange rate seems to fluctuate more markedly. For instance, around the timestamp '2024-04-24 06:50:02', there's a slight spike in the exchange rate at 0.51173, which might be considered outlier. Further statistical analysis would be required to identify if this value is a verified outlier.

Please note that this analysis is purely descriptive and based on the data provided. For a more detailed analysis, a larger dataset and integration of external factors like market conditions, financial news, and so on, may be helpful.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Financial Analysis Report

Overall Trend Analysis

Based on the data provided on the Georgian Lari (GEL) exchange rates for the date of 23rd April 2024, it can be noted that the exchange rates are showing a gradual decreasing trend throughout the day.The GEL opened at 0.51209 at the beginning of the day and closed at 0.51084, showing a marginal depreciation in value across the day.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, there is a slight fluctuation in exchange rates observed. The rates tend to show a certain rise after a certain number of time intervals and show a drop after another number of time intervals. The pattern does not seem to be seasonally dependent or time dependent as the movements are quite random. However, this would require a more in-depth temporal analysis to ascertain.

Outliers and Significant Differences

Outliers in the data, if any, are not easily discernible from the time series data as the movements are quite small. However, there are instances where the exchange rate differed slightly more than usual in a 5-minute time frame. These instances are not large enough to cause a significant impact on the overall trend analysis and may be due to regular market volatility. A more in-depth statistical analysis would be required to identify significant outliers in the data.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Upon analyzing the provided dataset, it appears that the GEL exchange rate has a generally stable trend throughout the day with minor fluctuations. The exchange rate sees marginal decreases and increases over the period but does not display a consistent, directional trend. This suggests a highly stable market for GEL in this given time period. It starts around a rate of 0.515 and fluctuates within relatively tight bounds throughout the day, with an occasional dip as low as 0.511 and rise as high as 0.5159. There does not appear to be a clear pattern of increasing or decreasing values over the day.

Seasonality and Patterns

Upon observing the dataset, there are no significant seasonal trends or recurring patterns within the day. The fluctuations within the exchange rate seem to be mostly random and do not follow a particular pattern that could be linked to specific hours of the day. The absence of noticeable patterns may hint at a market that responds more readily to immediate factors rather than cyclical or recurring influences.

Identification of Outliers

The dataset appears to have very few, if any, outliers. The majority of the rates are closely packed around an average value, with only a few instances of slight divergence. One possible outlier occurs around 13:50 where the rate drops to 0.51196, which is the lowest rate seen throughout the day. However, given the generally tight fluctuation observed, this dip may not be truly considered a significant outlier.

Overall, the dataset suggests a relatively stable exchange rate for the GEL with minor fluctuations throughout the day, with no significant trend or recurring patterns within the day.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

According to the provided time series data, here is the comprehensive analysis:

1. Overall trend of the exchange rates

Looking at the values of the GEL exchange rate, it appears to be an upward trend, meaning the value generally increases over the period. This is indicated by the rate value of 0.50042 at the start of the period on 2024-03-22, and 0.51563 at the end of the period on 2024-04-19. Although there are minor fluctuations in the rate at different timestamps, the overall picture suggests a consistent increase in the exchange rate value.

2. Seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

Due to the fact that the provided dataset only covers a short period of around a month and lacks any clear annual or seasonal timestamps (for example, it doesn't show the same dates across multiple years), it's difficult to ascertain any seasonal or recurring patterns. The data would need to be over a more extended time period, preferably over several years and with comprehensive daily values, to confidently detect annual or seasonal fluctuations.

3. Outliers of the exchange rate

From the provided data, there appears to be a significant drop in GEL on 2024-03-25 at 16:00:02, where the exchange rate falls to 0.49661 from the previous value of 0.5028. This is a noticeable deviation from the overall upward trend and can be considered an outlier. Another instance is at 2024-03-28 22:00:02 where it suddenly drops to 0.49459 from 0.49994 before immediately rebounding to 0.5034 at the next timestamp. However, judging outliers would require a more systematic approach, possibly using statistical analysis techniques to calculate standard deviation or interquartile ranges.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Overall Trend of the GEL Exchange Rates

Upon analyzing the provided dataset, it is observed that the trends in the exchange rates of GEL have shown a progressive increase over time. The rates escalated from 0.51482 on 2024-04-15 01:00:02 to 0.51563 on 2024-04-19 13:00:02. Despite some fluctuations occurring almost every hour, the general trend is a slight rise in the exchange rates.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns In Exchange Rates

In the timeframe provided, the data does not appear to contain any obvious seasonality or recurring patterns in hourly changes. The durations are too short for clear seasonality to assert itself. However, further analysis over a more extended time could reveal daily, weekly, or monthly patterns.

3. Significant Outliers In The Exchange Rate

As for outliers, noticeable deviations from the general trend include sudden spikes like the rise from 0.51723 on 2024-04-16 14:00:03 to 0.51987 on 2024-04-16 16:00:02. Additionally, drastic drops such as from 0.5187 on 2024-04-18 22:00:02 to 0.51682 on 2024-04-19 03:00:02 can also be classified as outliers.

Note:

This analysis relies solely on the time-series data provided, without consideration for external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. In addition, no forecasts for future rates were made as requested.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

The provided data is a time series data comprising of time stamps (date_at column) and corresponding currency exchange rates (gel column). Let's proceed to analyze the data to achieve your specified goals.

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates :

The data shows the variations in the gel exchange rates over time. At the start, the gel rate is 0.51795 and towards the end, the rate falls to 0.51601. The lowest gel rate seems to be 0.51468 while the highest is 0.51828 based on this data set. Although there are fluctuations throughout, the overall trend may indicate a slight decrease in the rates over the time window provided. Nevertheless, the change in rates isn't dramatic and may indicate a relatively stable currency exchange situation during this particular time window.

Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns :

Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rate data requires a more detailed analysis which usually involves decomposition of the time series into its components or using an autocorrelation function. However, at a simple visual level, it doesn't appear that there are specific recurring patterns that can be identified directly from the provided data. The rates seem to fluctuate throughout without a distinct repeating pattern.

Noting any outliers :

An outlier in this data set would be any exchange rate that stands out as being exceptionally different from the rest of the rates in level or trend. Given that the exchange rates in this data set do not vary greatly, identifying outliers may necessitate a statistical approach such as determining the mean and standard deviation, and then defining outliers based on a specified deviation from the mean. From a simple visual insight, no remarkable outliers seem to be present in the data provided.

It should be noted that for a more comprehensive evaluation, enhanced statistical methods need to be used for trend analysis, seasonality detection, and outlier identification. These methods can provide a more accurate analysis, including giving quantitative details about the trend, magnitude of seasonality, and statistical validation of identified outliers.