Kenyan Shilling Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    Based on the dataset provided, the exchange rate experienced a slight decreasing trend from 0.00933 to 0.00923 over the course of the day on 29th February 2024. There were very minor fluctuations throughout the day, but no significant increases or drops were observed. It's worth noting that there were a few times when the exchange rate briefly increased, but these moments were fleeting and the general downward trend continued.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Upon closer inspection of the data, there may be potential presence of an intraday seasonality, however, it is not very strong and quite hard to identify due to the slight changes in the exchange rate. It would require a more granular data set (second or minute level) to determine if any solid pattern or seasonality exists.

    Outliers in the Exchange Rates

    Given the small standard deviation of the dataset and the lack of any major shifts, there doesn't appear to be any obvious outliers in this data. The dataset seems to be quite uniform with exchange rate values all falling within a narrow range.

    Important Considerations for the Analysis

    • Despite the general downward trend, this conclusion isn't implying a constant/continued decrease in the exchange rate beyond the scope of this data, additional data would be needed to make broader trend predictions.
    • Although this analysis did not consider external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, these are significant factors that typically have a meaningful impact on exchange rates in the real world.
    • The absence of clear seasonality doesn't mean that no cyclical patterns exist. Other factors like macroeconomic indicators, geopolitical events, or periods longer than one day might exhibit seasonality and would require data across a longer timespan.
    • Lastly, it's important to note that financial timeseries data like exchange rates can often be affected by numerous factors and is inherently hard to predict with complete accuracy due to its stochastic nature.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Overall Trend Analysis

    As per the data provided, over the course of a single day, the exchange rate is predominantly stable, hovering around a central value of 0.0093. There is a momentary spike at 12:25 that lasts until about 14:20, where the exchange rate briefly climbs to 0.00941 - 0.00942. However, this can be considered a small fluctuation rather than an overall increasing or decreasing trend.

    Recurring Patterns/Seasonality

    There aren't any clear instances of seasonality or recurring patterns that can be seen from this day's data. The exchange rate remains nearly identical throughout, with small spikes and lulls. However, a single day's data has a limited scope for seasonality analysis. Regular patterns may become visible when analyzed over a broader time frame such as weeks, months, and years.

    Outliers

    From the provided data, there are no extreme values that stand out from the rest, hence we can say that there are no outliers. The highest value for this day is 0.00942 and the lowest is 0.00924. The values do not seem to deviate significantly from the mean, there are no unexpected peaks or valleys post the observed spike within this single day data set.

    In conclusion, according to this single day dataset, the KES exchange is relatively stable and doesn't present any signs of seasonality, recurring patterns or notable outliers. But, this can be considered a very limited scope and a broader time frame is recommended for more insightful financial analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

Summary of Last Month

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Overview Of Dataset

    The dataset provided reflects exchange rates (KES) recorded at specific time intervals (5 to 15 minutes apart) for a 24-hour period on February 26, 2024. It appears to be high frequency data often used in intraday trading analysis.

    1. General Trend of Exchange Rates

    Upon initial visual inspection, the KES exchange rate varied between 0.00922 and 0.00941 throughout the day. After starting at 0.00941, it experienced a downward trend until it stabilized around 0.00929, it decreased slightly and maintained a little volatility around the 0.00929 rate for a significant part of the day. Towards the end of the day, the rate further decreased to 0.00922. On the whole, the general trend for this particular day was a slight decrease, with the rate relatively stable for large parts of the day at 0.00929 and later 0.00922.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Due to the nature of the dataset (one day of data), it is challenging to identify any significant seasonality or recurring patterns. Seasonality typically requires multiple points of data spread out over longer periods (e.g., months or years) to recognize repetitive cycles. However, an intraday pattern of relative stability during certain hours can be seen.

    3. Notable Outliers

    Throughout the given day, there appear to be no significant outliers in the dataset, with the exchange rate largely maintaining a range between 0.00922 and 0.00941. Any minor fluctuations within this range seem consistent with regular trading volatility rather than exceptional outliers.

    Additional Comments

    Keep in mind that any analysis conducted based on one day of data may not present a comprehensive understanding of long-term trends, recurring patterns, or potential outliers. A larger dataset covering a more extended period would give more robust, dependable results, accounting for external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, and possible reactions to financial news or economic developments.

    As specified, we didn't forecast future rates or consider specific events such as market news or holidays in this analysis and stuck strictly to the data and information provided.

Summary of Last Week

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The overall trend in the dataset provided indicates that there are fluctuations in the exchange rates, but it generally shows some degree of increment. The lowest exchange rate is 0.00821 (on 2024-02-05 02:00:03) and the highest being 0.00944 (on 2024-02-09 02:00:03). However, it should be noted that while the rates do show a rising trend, the changes are quite marginal.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Upon examining the dataset, there does not appear to be a clear seasonal or recurring pattern. The exchange rate does not consistently rise or fall during specific times of the day or days of the week. This suggests that the KES exchange rate may be influenced by a multitude of factors beyond simple time-based changes.

    Outliers

    As for outliers in this data set, there are a few instances where the exchange rate fluctuates more significantly. For example, on 2024-02-13 02:00:02, the exchange rate jumps to 0.0086 from 0.00844 and then rises even further to 0.00901 by 2024-02-14 10:00:02. These instances however are few and do not deviate drastically from the usual fluctuation of the exchange rates.

    Please note that exchange rates are highly volatile and influenced by a multitude of factors such as economic indicators, geopolitical events, changes in interest rates, and market sentiment. While this analysis provides an overview of the historical patterns, it does not predict future movements or respond to real-time changes in these influencing factors.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Analyzing the given time-series data:

    To have a comprehensive view, we need to consider different aspects of the time-sequence data of the exchange rates. The main purposes are: assessing the overall trend of the rate change, detecting possible recurring patterns, and locating noticeable outliers.

    Overall Trend

    The KES exchange rate seems to remain relatively stable throughout the given period. Indeed, the data fluctuates around the 0.0093 range. An occasional peak and trough can be seen, but these are exceptions rather than the rule. Overall, the data does not suggest a substantial increasing or decreasing trend.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Identifying a recurring pattern within such level of fluctuation can be challenging. Upon first observation, it does not seem to showcase a clear sign of daily or weekly patterns, hence seasonality may not be present in this given data set. Confirmation would require more detailed statistical tests.

    Outliers

    • The peak that stands out the most occurs at 2024-02-19 07:00:02 with a rate of 0.00953. This suggests an unusual increase in the value at that particular time.
    • However, consecutive timestamps with a rate of 0.00923 and lower could be considered as potential outliers, as they tend to deviate from the typical range of values. For instance, this includes the values registered at dates starting from 2024-02-21 01:00:02.

    Giving Recognition to Limitations

    As requested, this analysis has been carried out without considering external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. These factors could influence the exchange rate immensely, and their exclusion may impact the accuracy and completeness of this time-series analysis.

    Please note, these are preliminary findings and a more thorough analysis could be done using appropriate analytical tools to consider autocorrelation, lag analysis and to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the time-series data.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:
  • Trend

    Overview of Exchange Rate Trend

    From the data provided, the Kenyan Shilling (KES) exchange rate has demonstrated a minimal fluctuation within the recorded timestamp. The rate started at 0.0092 at the beginning of the given duration and presented small changes throughout. Overall, the dataset depicts relatively stable exchange rates, with minimal rise and decline moments over the period shown.

    Identification of Seasonality or Patterns

    Based on the time series data provided, there's no identifiable seasonality or recurring patterns. Nonetheless, the data showcases average fluctuations within an observed range. These fluctuations can be attributed to the varying economic activities that cause changes in exchange rate values. Given that the data was provided on a 5-minute interval basis, any potential pattern or trend within such a short duration can be attributed more to 'noise' rather than a meaningful 'signal' that might exhibit a clear pattern.

    Notable Outliers

    Considering a uniform distribution of the exchange rates, there are no significant spikes or drops within the dataset provided. In fact, there is minimal variability in the exchange rate with data oscillating within a minor range. Therefore, it's safe to say that it doesn't contain any considerable outliers. This signals relative stability in this short-term timeframe.

    Consideration of External Factors

    While external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports can significantly impact exchange rates, these aspects have not been considered in this analysis. The directive was to analyze the numeric data as it is and not to generate any forecast for future rates, nor consider specifics of any event-oriented factors, hence this single-direction analysis.