Kenyan Shilling Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Firstly, the `date_at` column represents timestamps, whereas the `kes` column represents the exchange rates. The dataset spans multiple days, and each particular day contains numerous timestamp records. Hence, a careful analysis can be made through an examination of the timestamped data.

Overall Trend Assessment

The kes exchange rates have mainly been consistent over the duration provided in the dataset, with the minor fluctuations in the rates. A specific pattern highlighting a general increase or decrease in the rates is not evident from the data. For a significant portion of the timestamps, the exchange rates are either 0.01012 or 0.01013. There were occasional periods in which it falls to 0.01011 or rises to 0.01014 and 0.01018. These observations suggest a relatively stable trend in the exchange rates over the examined period.

Seasonality and Patterns

Given that the rates stay largely consistent throughout the time span with minor fluctuations, it's challenging to identify any distinct seasonal patterns in the dataset based on the information at hand. However, the occurrence of certain rates (like 0.01011 or 0.01018) at certain times could demonstrate some level of predictable patterns. Detailed exploration may reveal possible relationships with specific times of day or intervals between changes in rates.

Outliers and Exceptions

From the analysis of the provided data, the exchange rates remained quite steady, with few variances. Hence no significant outliers have been observed or instances where the exchange rate strays greatly from the norm.

In conclusion, the dataset indicates a relative stability in the 'kes' exchange rates with minor fluctuations over the period in the dataset. Determining a straightforward trend, seasonal pattern, or identifying outliers is challenging as the rates remain fairly consistent with just slight variations.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Comprehensive Analysis of the Dataset

Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The overall trend of the exchange rates follows a relatively stable pattern. The majority of the data points are concentrated around the value of 0.0102, with slight fluctuations occurring within a very close range of this central value. This indicates that the exchange rates demonstrated a largely steady trend over the observed period, with neither a pronounced increase nor a pronounced decrease.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

With respect to seasonality or recurring patterns, this particular dataset does not appear to indicate any. The exchange rates don't seem to exhibit any consistently recurring peaks or troughs that might suggest a seasonal effect. However, this conclusion is subject to the caveat that this dataset spans only a limited timeframe (just over a day), and assessing seasonality typically requires data covering multiple cycles of the season in question. Thus, while no seasonality is apparent in this dataset, potentially the analysis could reveal different results if conducted over a longer timeframe.

Noting Outliers

In terms of outliers, the exchange rates in this dataset are very uniform, with minimal variation. This suggests there are no significant outliers where the exchange rate differs markedly from the overall trend, and the data is sterlingly consistent. That said, it should be noted that this lack of variation could indicate that the rates are subject to external control or regulation, which might serve to minimise fluctuations.

Summary

In conclusion, this dataset shows that the exchange rates represented remained exceptionally stable over the observed period, with no discernible trend toward either an increase or decrease. Similarly, there were no evident outliers, and no apparent seasonality or recurring pattern in the data.

Please note that this analysis is limited by the relatively narrow timeframe of the dataset, which covers just over a day. A more comprehensive analysis could potentially be achieved should additional data, covering a broader timeframe, be made available.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

From the provided dataset, Considering the exchange rate values, there appear to be minor fluctuations in the KES exchange rate values throughout. The overall trend appears to be relatively stable over time. The exchange rate starts around 0.01023 and ends around 0.0102, indicating a very slight decrease, although the values fluctuate between 0.01016 and 0.01026 in between. There is not a notable trend of consistent increase or decrease in the exchange rate throughout the period.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

The time series data does not span a long enough period to determine seasonality or recurring patterns with high accuracy. However, in the available data, no distinct daily or hourly patterns emerge - the exchange rates don't consistently rise or fall at specific times of the day. The minor fluctuations in the exchange rate values appear largely random and do not display a clear cyclical pattern.

3. Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly

Most of the exchange rate values lie within a very narrow range, so any significant deviations may be considered outliers. However, within the provided dataset, no such values are found. The exchange rate differences across all timestamps are very minor and do not vary notably from the general trend. There are no spikes or drops indicating unusual activity or significant extreme events within this timeframe. This suggests a relatively stable and predictable period for the exchange rate without drastic fluctuations or significant market events.

Summary of Last Month

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Overall trend of the exchange rates

From an initial overview of the data, it appears that the exchange rate for KES is generally stable, with a slight decreasing trend over the time period represented. In the beginning, the exchange rate remains static at 0.01045 before slightly dipping around the 03:30 mark, dropping to approximately 0.01044. In the subsequent timestamps, there is a more significant decrease, hitting a low at around 0.01023. Following that, the rate seems to fluctuate slightly but largely remains constant for the rest of the period.

Identification of any patterns in the exchange rates

As for seasonality or recurring patterns, time-series analysis usually implies a more extensive dataset that spans across multiple cycles (such as multiple years) for the identification of potential seasonality, which is not evident in this case because the data spans for a day. However, there are slight variations in the exchange rate noted during different parts of the day and more evident drops followed by stabilization can be recognized as a minor pattern, repeated few times throughout the day.

Outliers in the dataset

In terms of outliers in this dataset, it seems that there aren't any instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the trend. The rate changes are relatively minor and do not fall out of the general trend observed. This might indicate that the market was relatively stable and void of drastic economic news or events during this time period.

In summary, the exchange rate represented in the dataset reveals a generally stable market with minor decreasing trend & slight fluctuations throughout the day, but without any significant variances or outliers.

Summary of Last Week

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Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The overall trend of the exchange rate seems to be fairly steady with minimal fluctuations. The values of KES exchange rate ranges from approximately 0.01021 to 0.01068 over the given time period. There is a very slight increase in the exchange rate values from the beginning (0.01024) to the end of the time period (0.01029). However, the relatively small difference and the numerous fluctuations within this time range suggest that the overall trend is stable.

Seasonality or Recurring patterns

Regarding the seasonality or recurring patterns of the exchange rates, although there are some periods where the exchange rate increases or decreases for several consecutive observations, a definitive, recurring pattern is not readily apparent within the provided data. The majority of fluctuations seem to occur irregularly and do not show a consistent pattern. Although, a more nuanced analysis may require advanced time series techniques, particularly because exchange rates can be influenced by a myriad of complex and interconnected factors. However, this in-depth analysis is beyond the current scope as per your requirements.

Outliers in the Exchange Rates

Anomaly detection or identification of outliers was also performed on the data. The highest value observed in the data is 0.01068, which falls on 2024-04-08 22:00:02 and 2024-04-09 02:00:02. This value is notably higher than the mean exchange rate and can be termed as an outlier. Similarly, the lowest exchange rate value which is 0.01021 shows up multiple times in the data set (for example on 2024-03-22 10:00:04 and 2024-03-28 22:00:02) but given its recurrence it is not likely considered as an outlier. Mostly, the exchange rates are observed to be close to the mean value indicating lack of strong outliers.

In summary, the Kes exchange rate during the given period appears to be moderately stable, with no evident seasonal or recurring pattern. While there are instances of minor fluctuations and rare outliers, the overall variability of rates is relatively low.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Based on your request, here’s what I can discern from your data:

Trend Analysis

The general trend shown by this KES exchange rate data is slightly decreasing over the period from 2024-04-15 to 2024-04-19. The highest rate observed is 0.01078 at the beginning of the dataset, while the lowest is 0.01028 towards the end. However, the changes are slow and incremental, indicating a fairly stable currency exchange rate with a slight depreciation.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Any evidence of strong seasonality or recurring daily patterns in this data is not apparent from this snapshot. For recurring patterns, we'd expect to see a consistent increase or decrease at certain time increments, which we don't see here. However, given that this is a relatively small dataset covering only a few days, it might not be large enough to establish recurring daily patterns with certainty.

Notable Outliers

An outlier is a data point that differs significantly from other observations. Based on this dataset, no significant outliers can be discerned. All the exchange rates fall within a tight band of 0.01028 to 0.01078. It suggests a stable exchange rate during the given period. Although minor fluctuations exist, no single data point deviates highly from the observed range for us to classify it as an outlier.

Please note, identifying trends or seasonality accurately from a small dataset is inherently difficult. Ideally, we would have several weeks or months worth of data for a more comprehensive analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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Trend

Analysis of the Kes Exchange Rate Dataset

The data provided is time series data reflecting changes in the Kes exchange rate captured at different timestamps from 19th April 2024.

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

After analysis of the Kes exchange rate in the given time frame, the rate does not illustrate a clear increasing or decreasing trend. Specifically, the data begins at a rate of 0.01036 and concludes at a rate of 0.0103 - only a slight change in value. Most of the readings revolve around the 0.0103 - 0.01037 range suggesting a largely stable rate across the time series with minimal significant ups or downs.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Precise determination of seasonality would typically require a broader temporal scale of data (e.g., multiple years), however, within the single day of data provided, there does not appear to be an obvious repeating pattern. The rate stays relatively stable across the entirety of the day.

3. Outliers in the Exchange Rates

In terms of outliers, given the stability of the exchange rates throughout the data, it seems there are no significant shifts or outliers that stand out within this data set. The rate of change remains quite minimal between each timestamp, without any substantial spikes or drops.

Nevertheless, for a definitive and accurate understanding of the exchange rates, additional data and possible considerations of external factors may be beneficial. Although this analysis does not factor in external influences such as market open/close times or key financial news, these can significantly impact rates and offer a deeper understanding.

In conclusion, this provides a brief understanding of the Kes exchange rate over the period from 19th April 2024 00:00:02 to 14:55:01 of the same day. The exchange rates remained largely stable with no apparent pattern or extreme outliers within this dataset.