Bahamian Dollar Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of The Exchange Rates

The data shows a fluctuating trend in the BSD Exchange rate over the entire given period. The exchange rate peaked at 1.3725 on April 25th, 2024 at 08:15:02 but dropped to its lowest point 1.365 at April 25th, 2024, 14:15:03. Despite these drastic highs and lows, the exchange rate appears to mostly revolve around the 1.366 to 1.372 mark overall. This suggests that while the exchange rates do fluctuate significantly, they tend to revert back to a central range.

Seasonality in Exchange Rates

In a single day, the data does not clearly demonstrate any recurring seasonal patterns or trends. While there are fluctuations in the exchange rate throughout the day, these do not appear to follow a predictable or repeating pattern. It is plausible, however, that trends may emerge if compared over spans of several days or weeks.

Outliers in the Data

Several outliers in the data can be identified where the exchange rate differs significantly from the expected range based on the overall trend of the data. For instance, the spike to 1.3725 at 08:15:02 and the sharp decrease to 1.385 at 14:15:03. Such instances appear to be exceptions and do not align with the predominant trends in the data. The reasons behind these exceptions could potentially be due to a variety of factors, such as market volatility, unforeseen economic events, or large transactions that temporarily skewed the exchange rate.

Remember that these findings are based purely on the trends and patterns within the provided dataset and do not account for external factors or events which may have influenced the exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall trend analysis

The dataset begins with a BSD rate of 1.37354 at 12 AM and ends with a BSD rate of 1.37116 at 11:55 PM. The highest BSD rate is 1.3757, which occurred at 5:50 AM, and the lowest BSD rate is 1.36801, which occurred at 7:25 AM. There seems to be a general decline in the BSD rate during this period. Although there are periods of increase, the overall trend appears to be a decrease in the BSD rate.

Seasonality and recurring patterns

There appears to be some seasonality to the BSD exchange rate as it fluctuates throughout the day. Spikes in the rate can be seen around 5:50 AM and drop around 7:25 AM which may reflect regular market opening hours. However, more data would be needed to confirm these patterns.

Analysis of outliers

The most noticeable outliers are at 5:50 AM when the BSD reached its peak of 1.3757 and at 7:25 AM when it reached its lowest point of 1.36801. Both these points deviate significantly from the rates before and after them, and are outliers in the data set.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of BSD Exchange Rates

Based on the dataset provided, the exchange rate of BSD appears to be overall stable, however, it does fluctuate from a low of 1.36744 to a high of 1.3736 throughout the day. Initially, it starts with 1.37085 at midnight and registers a high value of 1.3736 towards the end of the day. This suggests that the exchange rate's trend is slightly increasing during this period.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

A detailed seasonality or recurring pattern analysis might be challenging due to the absence of a larger dataset. In this one-day data span, the data does not show a clear seasonality pattern. It is advisable to have data spanning multiple days, weeks, or months to identify significant patterns or seasonality.

Outliers or Significant Differences

Despite several fluctuation periods, there don't seem to be noteworthy outliers where the exchange rate differs significantly from the general pattern. The changes in exchange rates throughout the period relatively moderate. However, at around 8.00 PM, the exchange rate jumps from 1.36751 to 1.37288. This change is larger than most other fluctuations in the data, but as it only happens once, it's not clear if it's a regular occurrence or a one-time spike. More data would be needed to draw a conclusion.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

From the dataset provided, we realize there doesn't appear to be one clear overall trend in the BSD exchange rate. The rate starts at 1.3737, reaches a peak of 1.37471, drops to a minimum of 1.3676, and ends at 1.37084. This indicates that the exchange rate has fluctuations but doesn't show a significant general increasing or decreasing over the period.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns in Exchange Rates

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, it's challenging to draw any conclusions from this dataset without a longer period data. This data spans just over a day which is a relatively short period to judge the seasonality accurately. Long-term data, such as over a year or several months, would give a clearer picture of any seasonal patterns.

Outliers in the Exchange Rate

Considering this dataset, there don't appear to be major outliers in the data. The exchange rate stays within a relatively narrow range of 1.3676 and 1.37471. However, given the short period of the data, it's possible that unanticipated fluctuations in exchange rate can be present but not seen here.

External Factors

Please note that this analysis doesn't account for external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of crucial financial news and economic indicators. Such external factors play a significant role in determining exchange rates. As such, the lack of consideration for these factors might limit the accuracy of this analysis.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Analyzing the Trend of Exchange Rates

From observing the raw data, it seems the exchange rate of the BSD has been largely fluctuating within the range of 1.34885 to 1.37898 over the period shown. The highest recorded exchange rate during this period seems to be 1.37898, while the lowest recorded rate is 1.34885.

Although there were ups and downs throughout the period, the rates did not show a strong consistent trend of either increasing or decreasing. Instead, the rates fluctuated within a relatively narrow band, suggesting that the BSD exchange rate remained somewhat stable during this period.

Periodicity and Seasonality

Due to the nature of the data provided, it's difficult to identify any strong seasonality or recurring patterns without further in-depth analysis. It would require breaking down the data into different time frames, such as day, week, or month, and comparing the patterns within these time frames.

Spotting Outliers

Outliers in this data set would be values that stand out from the others because they are significantly higher or lower. It's not immediately obvious from the raw data if there are many significant outliers. However, the extremely high value of 1.37898 BSD on 2024-04-12 14:00:01 seems higher than most others and could be considered an outlier.

This kind of outlier analysis can be quite subjective and would likely require further statistical analysis to confirm. For example, we might consider a value to be an outlier if it is more than a certain number of standard deviations away from the mean.

By noting the overall trend, potential seasonality and any outliers, we've gained an understanding of this exchange rate dataset. However, for a more rigorous statistical analysis, we might want to use statistical and time-series analysis methods, and potentially utilize machine learning algorithms to predict future rates.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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Trend

Analysis of Exchange Rate Data

This time series data analysis provides a review of the exchange rate data provided, specifically assessing the BSD exchange rate over time. The research will focus on three key aspects including the overall trend over time, the identification of reoccurring trends, and any unexpected outliers.

1. Trend Analysis

When analyzing the overall trend of the BSD exchange rate, it generally fluctuates within a narrow range throughout the provided timeframe. The exchange rate starts at 1.3751 and ends at 1.37409, which implies a minor decrease. However, during this period, the rate demonstrates some significant highs and lows indicating that the value of BSD is not consistently increasing or decreasing, but varied.

2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

The data does not seem to exhibit clear indications of seasonality or recurring patterns. The fluctuations in exchange rates appear to be more sporadic and unpredictable rather than following a regular cycle. While there may be subtle patterns that can be detected through more sophisticated statistical methods, at this simplified level of analysis, noticeable daily or hourly cycles are not evident.

3. Outliers Identification

There are instances where the exchange rate differed significantly from the general trend observed. For example, there are several peaks and troughs throughout the data sequence revealing sudden increases and decreases in rates. These spikes and drops are significantly outside the norm based on the general flow of data, signifying these as potential outliers. Such significant changes in exchange rates could be due to various factors, the causes of which would require further investigation.

It's important to note that while this analysis provides insights into the overall trends and potential outliers, a more detailed statistical analysis might be able to provide more precise insights, including the identification of subtle patterns and cyclical aspects that aren't immediately evident in the data.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Overall Trend of the BSD Exchange Rate

Looking at the dataset, the overall trend of the BSD exchange rate fluctuates throughout the day. However, it can be observed that the changes aren't drastic. The maximum rate achieved is 1.37697 and the minimum rate is 1.36986 throughout the time series data provided. The stated instance indicates that the changes happen within a very narrow range and therefore, it can be said that the BSD exchange rates generally remain stable over the period shown.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Considering the short time span provided in the dataset, it's difficult to pinpoint any long-term seasonality or recurring patterns. However, on a micro level, we can see fluctuations happening seemingly randomly. The data does not display a strong trend within the day; instead, it exhibits a random walk-like pattern which is common in exchange rate data. Any specific pattern may require a longer time series data and advanced analyses.

3. Outliers in the Dataset

Considering the dataset, the most significant jump in exchange rates occurs near the timestamp "2024-04-19 06:25:02" where the rate abruptly rises from 1.37212 to 1.37686. This spike can be concluded as an outlier as the exchange rate differs significantly from adjacent data points. Nevertheless, without an understanding of the underlying reasons, it's challenging to assert whether this event is a statistical anomaly or driven by certain market dynamics.