Netherlands Antillean Guilder Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    Upon analysis, it appears that the exchange rate (ANG) has been subjected to several fluctuations throughout the given timeframe. The trends didn't follow a single path (upward or downward); rather, there were both rises and falls in different time ranges. There were significant peaks as well as valleys, indicating both sudden increases and decreases in the exchange rate.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, these were not explicitly clear nor did they follow a particular pattern throughout the provided dataset. However, the data suggests some minor fluctuations during specific hours, but these changes did not seem to follow a consistent seasonal or recurring trend. To conclude, within this dataset and given time frame, the exchange rates did not seem to follow a clear seasonality.

    Outliers and Significant Changes

    Periods of sudden peaks and valleys were observed in the data, suggesting the occurrence of unexpected events in the market. These sudden changes are labeled as outliers. Some of the highest peaks include the rise to 0.7581 at 05:00:02 and then to 0.75785 at 05:25:3 on 2024-02-29. Similarly, there were instances of sudden falls in the exchange rate, such as diving down to 0.75214 at 08:10:02 on the same day. These suggest significant changes based on factors not provided in the dataset.

    External Factors

    While your request asked not to consider external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, it's important to note that these factors do play a significant role in shaping the financial data. Real-time events, such as policy changes, geopolitical news, and economic indicators, can directly impact the exchange rates. Therefore, any comprehensive analysis should ideally incorporate these factors for a fuller understanding of the trends.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates.

    Given the provided dataset, we can note a slight upward trend in the exchange rates over time. This begins from an initial value of 0.75048 and eventually reaches a rate of 0.75403. However, there are significant fluctuations within this range throughout the duration of this dataset. It is important to note that the changes are not extreme, this means that, although the exchange rate fluctuates, it remains within a very specific set of values, suggesting a relatively stable currency.

    Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates.

    Based on the given dataset, it is challenging to determine any evident seasonality or recurring pattern directly. The variance in exchange rates seems to be more random than cyclical, meaning we do not observe clear patterns of repeated increases or decreases in the rates for certain periods. The data provided might not be extensive enough to make precise conclusions about seasonality- typically, we would need a few years of data to make this determination.

    Noting any outliers.

    While analyzing the dataset, one particular instance stands out where the exchange rate hikes to 0.7587 at the timestamp '2024-02-28 06:10:03'. This outlier is significantly different from the rates seen in the dataset and does not seem to add up to the general trend. It then quickly returns back to the normal range in the subsequent timestamp, suggesting it might have been an error or a surprisingly large, but ephemeral, spike.

    To conclude, the exchange rates show a slight upward trend over the duration of the dataset with a few fluctuations. It is difficult to discern a clear pattern or seasonality, and the dataset contains one significant outlier. As with all financial data, these trends are subject to a wide range of potentially influencing external factors, many of which cannot be controlled or predicted.

Summary of Yesterday

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Summary of Last Month

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    Understanding the Overall Trend

    Based on the data provided, there is a general upward trend in the exchange rate from an initial value of 0.74889 to a final rate of 0.74903. However, it is worth noting that the changes are very subtle and fluctuate in a small range, indicating there is high stability in this rate over time.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Determining seasonality or recurring patterns requires a longer timescale or repeated observation of similar intervals. In this case, the provided data seems to be for one day, and without other days to compare it to; it's hard to ascertain any recurring patterns within a day or week or month. However, the data within this one day does show high stability and small fluctuations, indicating the possibility of a daily pattern. Further analysis over a longer period is required for a definitive conclusion.

    Noting Outliers

    There are several noticeable outliers where the exchange rates spike to around 0.756. These instances deviate significantly from the general trend of subtle fluctuations around 0.748-0.75 and are worth investigating further. However, since we're asked not to consider external factors like market news, it's impossible to say why these outliers occurred. In a more detailed analysis, these spikes in exchange rate would be an opportunity to look into what external events may have caused them.

    In conclusion, while there is a general upward trend in the data provided, it is very subtle and keeps within a tight scope indicating high stability. Seasonality and patterns are hard to discern and might require a broader range of data. Some noticeable outliers point to sporadic instances of significant change but would need further exploration and perhaps external context to fully understand.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    An initial inspection of the dataset indicates that fluctuations in the exchange rates over the period are not significant. While there are small increases and decreases observable at different timestamps, these slight changes do not constitute an apparent upward or downward trend. Instead, the exchange rate seems to fluctuate within a relatively stable range, indicating a somewhat stable trend.

    Seasonality Analysis

    In the given dataset, it is challenging to identify any clear seasonal or cyclical patterns in the exchange rate changes based solely on the timestamp provided. However, it is generally observed that such patterns, if existent, would typically manifest over extended periods (e.g., annually or quarterly) or at predictable intervals (e.g., weekly or daily) due to market opening/closing times. Considering the dataset size and granularity, it would be necessary to analyze data over a more extended period or with deeper granularity to identify any clear seasonality or recurring patterns.

    Outliers Analysis

    Based on the data provided, there does not appear to be any significant outliers or instances where the exchange rate deviates drastically from the general trend. The values of the exchange rates contained in this dataset are relatively close to one another, with no large or unexpected spikes or dips.

    In conclusion, the value of the ANG exchange rate over the specified time period fluctuates slightly but remains within a consistent range, suggesting a relatively stable trend without any discernible seasonality or outliers. As always, it's important to note that past trends may not predict the future, and other factors outside this dataset likely influence the ANG exchange rate.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis Result

    After analyzing the provided time-series data, below are the finding in terms of the overall trend, seasonality or recurring patterns and outliers in the changes of exchange rates.

    1. Overall Trend

    The overall trend of the exchange rates seems to be somewhat stable, with slight fluctuations. There is not a consistent upward or downward trend and the rates hover mostly around 0.748 to 0.751. However, there are few peaks and valleys, the highest rate being observed at 0.75539 and the lowest at 0.74569 indicating minor volatility in the exchange rates over this period.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    A close examination of the data does not reveal any obvious seasonality or recurring patterns in the data. The rates do not seem to follow a distinctive repetitive pattern based on the time of day, day of the week, or any other interval visible in the data provided.

    3. Outliers

    There are few instances where the ANG exchange rate spikes up or down significantly compared to the rates immediately before and after. For example, there is a sharp rise to 0.75445 on 2024-02-20 and then a jump to 0.75539 on 2024-02-21, both of these instances could be considered as outliers. Similarly, a significant drop is seen on 2024-02-22 when the rate drops to 0.74601 compared to the rates immediately before and after in the data set.

    Please note, the identification of outliers is based on the statistical distribution of the exchange rates in this specific dataset, and it does not necessarily mean that these data points are erroneous or should be excluded from future analysis. Decisions about how to handle these outliers should be based on detailed knowledge about the financial circumstances that may have led to these values.

    Please remind, this analysis does not consider external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports which can add significant variance to the exchange rates. Furthermore, it does not provide any forecasting of future rates.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Data Analysis

    The given dataset is showing time-series data for the Exchange rates of ANG currency over a specific period. An analysis of the dataset was conducted to provide insights about the trend, seasonality, and outliers.

    1. Trend Analysis

    The ANG exchange rate appears to be relatively stable overall, with minor fluctuations at intervals. The rate begins at a value of 0.74594 at 2024-02-23 00:00:02, decreases slowly to a low around 0.74546 at 2024-02-23 02:05:02, and then begins to increase gradually, reaching a peak of 0.75326 at 2024-02-23 03:25:02, an unusual high-point which appears to be an outlier in the dataset. It then regresses back to a more stable trend and doesn't exceed 0.75 for the rest of the data set.

    2. Seasonality Analysis

    Given the data spans less than a 24-hour period, making judgements on seasonality is complex. However, certain periodic patterns can be observed throughout the dataset. A continuous 'wave' pattern can be noted where the value of the ANG rate peaks and returns to a lower level before peaking again indicating some sort of intraday seasonality.

    3. Outliers Analysis

    • The rate at 0.75326 on 2024-02-23 03:25:02 stands out as a notable outlier, as the rate is higher than any other point in the dataset and swiftly drops to 0.74679 in the next timestamp. It may indicate a data-entry error, or it could represent a brief moment of volatility in the market that was rapidly corrected.
    • Another peak at 0.75317 on 2024-02-23 04:30:02 that fell back to an average value in the next timestamp also seems to be an outlier.

    Note on Analysis

    The analyses performed here are quantitative and neglect any external factors such as market opening/closing times, weekends/holidays and the release of significant financial news/reports that can have major impact on exchange rates. Furthermore, this analysis does not generate a forecast of the future rates but rather helps to understand the existing data trends.