Uganda Shilling Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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    Based on the data provided and the request, I've completed an analysis of the exchange rates data. Here are my observations:

    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates:

    From the UGX exchange rate time-series data provided, it appears that the exchange rates are generally stable over the period shown. There is not a significant appreciable increase or decrease trend. The exchange rate most frequently fluctuates between 0.00034 and 0.00035. The overall trend seems to be a mostly horizontal line suggesting a steady exchange rate.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates:

    Based on the given dataset, there isn't an obvious seasonality or recurring patter across the timeline provided. The data points seem uniformly distributed across the time frames, and there isn't a clear repeating pattern within each day or between different days. This indicates that there are likely no predictable, short-term cyclical fluctuations in the exchange rate over the course of a day (or other common period such as a week or month).

    3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality:

    From the data analysis, no significant outliers were observed. The exchange rate data points are almost all within the realm of 0.00034 and 0.00035, with no significant deviations from this range. This suggests that during the timeframe represented in the dataset, the exchange rate remained very consistent, with minimal volatility. These observations indicate that the market for this currency pair was stable during the represented period.

    Note: This analysis is based solely on the data points provided, and does not account for potential effects of external events such as economic news announcements or changes in market conditions that might be expected to cause sudden, significant changes in exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    Looking at the given dataset for the UGX exchange rates, it can be observed that for the date 2024-02-28, the exchange rate generally fluctuates between 0.00034 and 0.00035. One thing that is peculiar about this dataset is that the numbers hardly change; the exchange rate remains relatively stable with very marginal fluctuations. Throughout this data set, we do not see a discernable upward or downward trend in the values. The rate hovers within a similar range indicating a fairly stable foreign exchange market condition.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    A closer inspection of the data does not show any noticeable seasonality or recurring pattern, the exchange rate fluctuates within a tight range, and no hour-specific or time-specific pattern can be discerned. The dataset is consistent and does not show any recurrent jumps or drops that might suggest a recurring event affecting the exchange rate.

    Outliers in the Data

    In terms of outliers within the dataset provided, it lacks any significant anomalies. All the UGX exchange rates for the specified date range between 0.00034 and 0.00035, a very close range, which suggests stability and consistency. There are no standout rates that deviate significantly from this range that could be classified as outliers. Therefore, based on the provided data, there are unlikely to be any significant outliers that occur due to unexpected events or market reactions.

    In conclusion, the UGX exchange rates exhibit tremendous stability throughout the period covered by the dataset, with minor fluctuations within a limited range. There's no apparent seasonality, recurring pattern, or outliers suggesting extraneous factors influencing the rates. It represents a stable foreign exchange scenario.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    The exchange rate data provided shows no noticeable change from beginning to end. It remains constant at 0.00034 throughout the entire period. This implies that the currency stability is maintained throughout the given period. However, with the available dataset, it cannot be stated whether this stability will remain the same in the future due to no observed fluctuations.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    With the data presented, there isn't any noticeable seasonality or repetition in the exchange rate since it uniformly remains at 0.00034. There are no observable daily, weekly, or monthly patterns based on the time-stamps provided.

    Outliers and Significant Changes

    No outliers or significant changes are detected in the given dataset. The frequency of the observation doesn't affect the outcome significantly with the exchange rate remaining constant.

    Additional Insights

    Considering the data provided, there are no shifts in the exchange rate - the values remain at a constant unit of 0.00034 across all timestamps. Given that the exchange rate doesn't fluctuate, it implies a highly stable currency exchange situation during the observed period. However, this lack of movement is uncommon in financial markets. Usually, exchange rates vary due to various factors like inflation, interest rates, public debt, terms of trade, political stability, and economic performance.

    Please note that this analysis doesn't take into account any external factors as per request. Such factors could potentially have a considerable impact on the exchange rates. Thus, real-world application of this stability might differ.

    This analysis doesn't generate a forecast for future exchange rates. Predicting future rates would require a more volatile dataset, complex statistical models, and likely consideration of various external factors.

Summary of Last Week

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    1. Overall Trend Analysis

    Based on the provided data, the overall trend in the exchange rates appears to be remarkably stable. The value observed is predominantly at 0.00035, without any increasing or decreasing pattern observed over the given time period. This suggests that the UGX exchange rate has experienced a high degree of stability during this time.

    2. Seasonality Analysis

    As for seasonality or recurring patterns, because the exchange rate value stays consistently at 0.00035 over the analyzed period, it doesn't indicate any seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates. Due to the stable nature observed, it's challenging to identify any recurring fluctuations or deviations.

    3. Outliers Analysis

    Regarding outliers, there is a notable observation that occurs around the timestamp 2024-02-23 10:00:03, where the exchange rate decreases slightly to 0.00034. This change represents a minor deviation from the consistently observed rate of 0.00035. Other than this, no discernible outliers or significant deviations from the trend are observed.

    Please take note that conclusions drawn in this analysis are solely based on numerical data given and don't take into account external influences such as socio-political developments, macroeconomic indicators, market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Each of these factors could have potentially substantial impacts on exchange rate behaviors.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    From a high-level overview of the provided data, it appears that the exchange rates have largely remained stable over the observed period. Given that the value recorded is 0.00035 for the vast majority of the period, except for the last few entries where it drops by a small margin to 0.00034, it can be concluded that the UGX exchange rate has displayed a predominantly stable trend with a very late mild decrease.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Regarding any seasonality or recurring patterns, the stability of these rates suggests that there is minimal if any, seasonality in this exchange rate. These results remain consistent throughout different times of the day, indicating a lack of noticeable hourly patterns. Similarly, observing from a broader perspective, weekly or monthly seasonality patterns do not seem to be present based on the presented data.

    Outliers in the Exchange Rates

    An outlier in a data set is an observation that lies an abnormal distance from other values in a random sample from a population. In this case, given the consistent nature of the exchange rates, any significant variation in these rates could be conceived as an outlier. As for the provided data, there are no apparent outliers, since all rates remain closely clustered around the 0.00035 mark, with the exception of the slightly lower value of 0.00034 encountered near the end of the observing period. However, this drop is very minimal and does not vary far enough from the common value to be considered a significant outlier.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis of UGX Exchange Rates Time Series Data

    This analysis will look into the provided dataset for UGX exchange rates. The dataset covers the date starting on 2024-02-23 till the same date, comprehending exactly 1 day of data.

    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The overall trend throughout the day was mostly stable. The exchange rate started at 0.00035 at the beginning of the day, and it continued to be steady at the same intervals. There was a slight decrease to 0.00034 around 06:20:02 time. After this, the exchange rates stabilized again at 0.00034 for the rest of the day. Thus, it can be concluded that although there were slight changes, the exchange rates remained relatively stable throughout the day.

    2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, it's a little challenging to infer this from one-day data. However, from the given data, it is evident that the UGX exchange rate on that particular day shows two different stable periods, one with a rate of 0.00035 and another with a rate of 0.00034, suggesting perhaps a daily pattern, but it would need data from more days to confirm any recurrence.

    3. Noting Outliers

    Regarding outliers, the data does not seem to present any significant outliers. The decrease in exchange rate to 0.00034 from 0.00035, even though it represents a change from the initial stability, is maintained consistent enough for a considerable part of the day to not be considered an outlier. In general, this set of data seems quite consistent and regular, without any unexpected spikes or drops.

    In conclusion, the UGX exchange rate showed a mostly stable trend with a slight decrease in the day, which was consistent throughout the latter part of the day. While there are hints of a possible pattern, the available data is insufficient to draw a conclusion about recurring patterns or seasonality. There weren't any outliers that could represent events of substantial magnitude.