Uganda Shilling Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

From the data provided, the exchange rate (UGX) appears to be remarkably stable over the time series. There is no visible upward or downward trend. The rate has remained constant at 0.00036 throughout the timeframe, with no fluctuations. It's remarkable for any financial time series data, including foreign exchange rates, which typically experience some degree of volatility and change.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In regards to seasonality or recurring patterns, the data, again, is consistent throughout, with no clear recurring patterns or seasonal fluctuations evident. It's noteworthy to have such a level of stability in exchange rates, as they are usually affected by various factors including economic indicators, geopolitical events, and market demand.

Noting Outliers

Given the constant value of the UGX exchange rate in the data set, there are no outliers. An outlier in this context would be a significant departure from the prevailing exchange rate of 0.00036, and no such values exist in this dataset.

Lastly, since you specified that we should not consider external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or key financial news and reports, these elements weren't included in the analysis.

In conclusion, this dataset shows an unusual degree of stability in the UGX exchange rate. It might be beneficial to verify the integrity of the data, as such long-term consistency is uncommon for financial markets.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analysis of the Dataset

The dataset provided includes timestamped exchange rates (UGX) for the date of 2024-04-24, starting from 00:00:02 to 23:55:02. There are several questions to answer as we analyze these data.

Overview of Exchange Rates Trend

Within the provided dataset, the exchange rate (UGX) remains uniform at 0.00036 throughout all timestamps. There is no fluctuation observed during the period. Hence, the trend of exchange rates here can be characterized as extremely stable.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In the context of this dataset, there isn't any detectable seasonality or recurring patterns for the exchange rate. The rate, as stated previously, is exactly the same (0.00036) for all time points. For seasonality or any pattern to be recognized, there would need to be variation in data values during the timeframe, which is not the case here.

Outliers Identification

Without variance in data values, we can decisively state that there are no outliers in this dataset - each data value is a mirror of the others. Therefore from the dataset, no instances can be found where the exchange rate differs significantly, either high or low, from the standard 0.00036.

It's worth mentioning that this analysis is based solely on the given dataset and does not consider external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of vital financial news and reports. Incorporating such variables might reveal further insights that could modify the analysis outcomes.

Please note that this analysis does not generate any forecast for future rates. However, based on this dataset, unless changes such as external market factors or policy amendments are introduced, one could guess the stability might continue into the immediate future.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

From the given dataset, the UGX exchange rate shows a stable trend throughout. The rate stays constant at 0.00036 . There is no discernible variation, neither an increase nor decrease, over the timestamps provided. This might indicate that the currency pair in question remained stable within this timeframe.

Seasonality or Recurring Pattern Analysis

Due to the stability of the exchange rate throughout the dataset and based on the timestamps provided, there is no observable seasonality or recurring pattern in the changes of the UGX exchange rate. A flat and constant rate is encountered at all times, suggesting the absence of intraday seasonal movements, weekly oscillations, or any other chronological-related patterns.

Outliers Analysis

Given the identical values of the UGX exchange rate throughout the data points, there are no outliers present in the dataset. An outlier would indicate a significant deviation from the norm, but since the rate remains stable at 0.00036, there is no deviation from this norm. Therefore, an outlier analysis does not yield any results for this specific dataset.

Final Thoughts

Considering the constant exchange rate in the period covered in this dataset, it seems that the UGX has enjoyed a relatively consistent stability. While this kind of analysis illuminates the behavior of the exchange rate for this period, it is crucial to remember that currency exchange rates can be influenced by many factors not included in this dataset and can change over time. This analysis only represents the dataset provided and does not predict future behaviors.

Summary of Last Month

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Upon studying the dataset consisting of timestamped exchange rate data, it is evident that the exchange rate between the UGX and the dollar remains constant over time. Each timestamp in the data records indicates the exchange rate as 0.00036, with no variation. Therefore, it can be statistically inferred that the exchange rate remains steady over time and does not tend to increase or decrease over the duration in which the data has been captured.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

In terms of patterns and seasonality, due to the constant rate throughout the data set, there's no discernible recurring pattern or seasonality evident in the exchange rate of UGX. The value maintains a steady rate of 0.00036 throughout a wide range of timestamps marked over several hours of the day. Thus, it appears that the UGX exchange rate is not affected by seasonal changes or cyclical factors.

3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly

Similarly, this dataset contains no outliers, as the exchange rate remains fixed at 0.00036 continuously. Because no variation exists in the data set, no significant divergence, remarkable incidents, or anomalies disrupt the existing constant trend in the data set. This signifies a notably stable exchange rate regime for the UGX during this period.

Summary of Last Week

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analysis of exchange rates

Based on the data provided, here is the comprehensive analysis of the dataset:

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

The data does not suggest any significant changes or trends in exchange rates. The value is static at 0.00035 UGX for an extended period until it changes to 0.00036 UGX. As such, it is reasonable to infer that the exchange rate remained relatively stable throughout the period represented by the dataset.

Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns

The data does not exhibit any clear cyclic or seasonal patterns. The changes do not appear to be tied to any specific time or period, indicating a lack of significant fluctuation or trend. As such, the exchange rates seem to have remained consistent and steady throughout the times represented in the dataset.

Noting any outliers

Given the overall stability of the exchange rates in this dataset, it is challenging to identify any outliers. The exchange rates remain consistent at 0.00035 UGX for the vast majority of the timestamps. The rate only increases marginally to 0.00036 UGX towards the end of the time series data, which is not a substantial enough deviation to be considered an outlier.

Therefore, based on the static nature of the data, there is not enough variation in the exchange rates to establish any outliers that significantly differ from the expected trend.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Upon examining the entire dataset, it is immediately apparent that there is no noticeable fluctuation in the UGX exchange rate. Based on the information provided, the UGX exchange rate remained constant at 0.00036 throughout the period in question. Owing to this constancy, it's challenging to distinguish whether the rate is generally increasing or decreasing over the timeframe. Moreover, we can deduce that the exchange rate remained stable for the entire duration.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, given the uniform nature of the UGX exchange rate throughout the period, no significant seasonal patterns or trends can be recognized. In this case, since the exchange rate remains consistent each hour over several days, we are unable to identify any hourly or daily recurrence pattern. Consequently, it is not relevant to attribute any kind of seasonality to the dataset, because the data does not fluctuate or alter in cyclic manners.

Outliers in the Exchange Rates

Outliers are usually observed as significantly differing values from the norm. In the context of this dataset, because the exchange rate (0.00036) stays unchanged throughout all timestamps, no outliers can be identified. All the data points fit perfectly with the average, demonstrating zero variance. Therefore, our dataset does not contain any anomalies or outliers.

In summary, this dataset denotes a constant UGX exchange rate throughout different time points. The lack of observed fluctuations makes it impossible to identify a trend, recurring pattern, or outliers in the dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Based on the given data, the exchange rate for UGX across different timestamps on 2024-04-19 has been consistently stable at 0.00036. There was no increase or decrease observed throughout the data provided. This indicates that the UGX exchange rate was rather stable on this given date.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Typically, in financial analysis, indicators of seasonality or recurring patterns may be identified. However, in the case of this particular data set for UGX exchange rate, since the rate remains constant and static throughout the period, it is not possible to detect any noticeable seasonality or cyclical patterns.

Outliers in the Exchange Rates

Outliers in a data set are values that are significantly higher or lower than the rest. In this case, the UGX exchange rate remains consistent throughout the dataset at a value of 0.00036 for all timestamps. Therefore, there are no clear outliers in this dataset as there are no significant deviations from the observed value.