Kwanza Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Comprehensive Analysis of Exchange Rate

    Upon analyzing the provided data, it is evident that it represents the changing AOA exchange rates for a specific time period.

    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The overall trend for the exchange rate of the period provided is relatively stable. The rate, for most of the period, remains at 0.00164 but sees a very slight decline to 0.00163 eventually. However, given the very minor change, it can be said that the trend largely remained stable during this period.

    2. Recurring Patterns or Seasonality

    With regard to the seasonality or recurring patterns, the data doesn't show any visible fluctuations that would suggest a seasonal pattern or trend. Despite keeping an eye out for hourly, daily, or other regular recurring changes, the exchange rate remains consistent throughout. Hence, no notable recurring patterns, or seasonality is detected in the dataset.

    3. Outliers in Exchange Rates

    No notable outliers are evident in the dataset. There are instances of slight decreases in the exchange rate from 0.00164 to 0.00163, but these cannot be deemed as significant outliers. So, there are no notable instances where the rate deviates significantly from the trend.

    It's important to note that this analysis is purely based on the numerical information provided in the dataset and does not take into account any contextual information such as specific events or external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Therefore, the analysis might lack context-specific insights which can only be found considering these factors.

    Conclusion

    In conclusion, the dataset shows a mostly stable AOA exchange rate over the period. No discernible seasonality, recurring patterns, or significant outliers are detected. However, context-aware analysis may provide more insightful nuances about this trend.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The overall trend for this AOA exchange rate dataset appears to be relatively stable. Across all timestamps provided, the exchange rate fluctuates between 0.00163 and 0.00164 without showing a clear upward or downward trend. The stability of these rates suggests there were no significant changes in the market conditions affecting AOA during this period.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Given that the exchange rate within this period mostly oscillates between 0.00163 and 0.00164, it is challenging to identify any seasonality or recurring patterns. The dataset enlisted does not cover a sufficiently long period that may include potential seasonal fluctuations in the annual or semi-annual term. The time series provided spans over a 24 hour period without displaying any discernible cyclicality or recurrence characteristic of intraday market patterns.

    Outliers

    From the provided dataset, there doesn't appear to be any outliers. All recorded AOA exchange rates are within the narrow band of 0.00163 to 0.00164. Hence, no values significantly deviate from the average trend to be classified as outliers. This suggests that, within this period, the AOA exchange rate remained relatively consistent and did not experience substantial abnormal spikes or drops.

    Key Observations

    • Overall, AOA exchange rates remained in a static state during the observed period with minuscule fluctuations.
    • No observable seasonal or recurring pattern in the dataset within the duration covered.
    • No identifiable outliers, indicating a period of relative stability for the AOA exchange rate.

    Please notice that this analysis is purely based on the numerical data provided. For a more in-depth understanding or predictive analysis, factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, the release of key financial news, and economic indicators should ideally be considered even though it's out of the scope for this particular analysis situation.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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    Unfortunately, I'm not able to generate an HTML report. However, I can provide you with a detailed analysis that you can easily convert into HTML.

    Overall Trend Analysis:

    The data suggests that the exchange rate of the AOA over the period was fairly stable. The exchange rate appears to fluctuate between 0.00162 and 0.00163 throughout the whole period. It indicates a lack of significant upward or downward trend in the value of AOA.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns:

    Given the data, it may be challenging to assert any clear seasonal pattern due to limited variation in the rates over time. However, small fluctuations between 0.00162 and 0.00163 are notable, suggesting a potential pattern of constant, minor fluctuation. More in-depth statistical analysis may be required to present a significant seasonal pattern.

    Outliers Detection:

    The exchange rate data varies slightly around a minimal range, and no extreme or unexpected values are seen, suggesting a lack of outliers within this dataset.

    Other Observations:

    The data seems to show a lack of impact from external elements such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or financial news. This claim is based on the observable stability and limited variation in exchange rates across the times of day.

    Conclusion:

    The AOA exchange rate, as indicated from the data provided, is significantly stable, showing minimal fluctuations. It might reflect a steadiness in the foreign exchange market during this period or external factors effectively balancing each other out.

Summary of Last Week

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    I have evaluated the given dataset and here are the findings:

    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    The first step in analyzing the time series data is to examine the general trend in the data. Upon initial observation, the exchange rates of AOA seem relatively stable over the timeline. There are minor fluctuations with the rates hovering primarily between 0.00161 and 0.00163. The data does not depict a significant increasing or decreasing trend; instead, the rates oscillate marginally around a certain level indicating the market's relative stability during the observed period.

    Seasonality

    Traditionally, exchange rates exhibit a degree of seasonality, arising from regular flunctuations in economic activity. However, it is essential to note that the period available in this dataset (from late January to late February) is not long enough to clearly identify any seasonal trends. While we do see slight oscillations in the exchange rate, it remains inconclusive to assign these changes to a specific seasonality without more extended temporal data.

    Outliers

    An outlier in time-series data is a data point that differs significantly from other observations. No significant outliers are observed within this dataset. The exchange rate does not have any sudden spikes or drops, therefore, indicating consistent behavior in the AOA forex market during the observed period.

    External Factors

    The analysis carried out is purely based on past trends and does not consider external influences that could potentially affect exchange rates. Various factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, the release of key financial news, and reports will significantly impact the data, and hence their consideration would provide a more detailed and nuanced analysis of the AOA exchange rates. Also, remember, past performance does not guarantee future results.

    Please note that this visualization is purely a descriptive analysis of the dataset, providing oversight into past trends to help gain insights about the data.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Analysis of AOA Exchange Rate

    The following analysis is based off the AOA Exchange rate between 19th Feb 2024 and 23rd Feb 2024 based solely on the data provided. It takes into note the overall trend, seasonality patterns or recurring trends and any unexpected outliers. It does not take into account external factors such as market hours, weekends/holidays or financial news and reports.

    1. Overall trend of the exchange rates

    The AOA exchange rate over these few days has seen mainly slight variations, oscillating mainly between 0.00162 and 0.00163. There don't appear to be any pronounced increases or decreases during this period, signaling a relatively stable rate during these five days.

    2. Recurring patterns of the exchange rates

    From the given data, there doesn't seem to be a clear, repeating pattern. With the majority of the data points alternating between 0.00162 and 0.00163, the exchange rate's variation doesn't seem to possess an identifiable pattern. However, a more extensive dataset that traverses a more significant period might offer more insights into potential recurring patterns, if any.

    3. Outliers in the exchange rates

    Given the consistent alternation between 0.00162 and 0.00163 throughout the observed period, each data point falls within this range, and hence, no outliers are detected as per this dataset. Data points that would fall noticeably above or below this range would have been considered outliers. As such, the exchange rate remains within expectations based on the observed trend.

    In conclusion, it appears that the AOA exchange rate remained relatively stable over the observed period, with slight fluctuations observed on a regular basis. No clear recurring patterns were identified, and no outliers were observed.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    The exchange rate data provided indicate a stable trend throughout the period in consideration. The AOA exchange rate remained constantly at 0.00162 for a significant portion of the period, and then slightly increased to 0.00163. This trend offers two insights: the first part of the dataset shows that the rates are completely flat, suggesting low volatility in this period. The second part of the dataset, on the other hand, displays a tiny uptick. While such a small increase might not be significant in the big picture, it signifies that a change did occur.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns

    Throughout the dataset provided, no clear evidence of seasonality or recurring patterns can be detected. The exchange rates hover around the same value for a majority of the time, without notable changes that suggest a cycle or pattern. It is important to note that a more extensive dataset spanning multiple years might be necessary to confidently identify seasonality, as such trends involve changes that occur at fixed intervals over an extended period. Furthermore, identifying recurring patterns usually requires historical context and additional data points which are not available in the given dataset.

    3. Noting any outliers

    There doesn't appear to be any significant outliers in the given time series data. The exchange rate shows very minimal variation, maintaining at 0.00162 for the majority of the period and later slightly shifting to 0.00163 towards the end of the period. An outlier, in this context, would be a sudden and significant change in the exchange rate, which is absent in this dataset. The relatively flat trend also implies minimal volatility, suggesting stability in exchange rates during this period.

    In conclusion, the exchange rates have demonstrated remarkable stability in the observed period, with a negligible uptick towards the end. There were no discernable patterns or seasonality found within the dataset. Furthermore, the data contained no significant outliers indicating drastic or unexpected shifts in the exchange rate.