Kwanza Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Comprehensive Analysis of AOA Exchange Rate

After carefully examining the provided dataset, here are the observed highlights:

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

The data shows that the exchange rate generally remains the same at 0.00163 for the most part of the period. However, there is a slight increase to 0.00164 and then it drops back to 0.00163. There isn't a clear fluctuation trend in the rates as the value majorly stays at 0.00163.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

There is a minimal sign of a recurring pattern. The dataset does not show a clear cyclical or seasonal trend where the rates increase or decrease at specific times. The lone instance of a rate change happens without any link to a recurring event that suggests an observed seasonality.

3. Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly

The single instance of the rate change to 0.00164 could be considered as an outlier, as it defies the constant rate of 0.00163 found throughout the dataset. However, the absence of substantial fluctuations or extremities in the rate changes prevents a definitive statement on significant outliers.

It's important to highlight that this analysis solely leans on the provided data and the temporal value intervals. Although it offers a detailed understanding of the AOA exchange rate changes, including the consideration of external factors could lead to a more comprehensive analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend on the Exchange Rate

Looking at the provided dataset, the exchange rate of AOA has generally remained stable. It has mostly hovered around 0.00163 and 0.00164, slightly trending towards a slight increase to 0.00165 at certain points.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Analysing the time series data for patterns or seasonality, no considerable seasonality or recurring pattern is noticed within the provided data. The exchange rates fairly stay stable with a very limited fluctuation, indicating that the exchange rates seem less affected by the time of the day.

Noted Outliers

From the given dataset, there are no observable significant outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the supposed trend. The very slight changes noticed are within the expected limit for time series data of this sort. Nonetheless, it's important to note that unexpected economic events or shocks can cause significant variations, although such outliers do not appear to be present in this dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

After a careful examination of the data, it can be stated that the exchange rates have the same value (0.00164) for most of the provided timestamps. However, there was a slight decrease to 0.00163, which was noticed from 2024-04-23 09:05:02. It's vital to mention that although the fluctuation in the exchange value was small, it was persistent throughout the next timestamps after it occurred. The exchange rate remained steady at this value for the rest of the provided timestamps.

Seasonality or Recurring Pattern

Regarding seasonality or recurring patterns, no specific pattern could be discerned from the dataset. The exchange rate was steady at 0.00164 for a period and then dropped to 0.00163 for the remaining time. This doesn't signify any clear seasonality.

Outliers in the Exchange Rates

In this dataset, no significant outliers were observed. The rate did fluctuate slightly but remained constant at that new value for the rest of the timestamps. The fluctuation that did occur could have been influenced by factors unseen in the given dataset.

Summary of Last Month

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1. Understanding the overall trend

After analysing the dataset, the exchange rates appears to be stable across the period, staying consistently around the 0.00164 mark. There does not appear to be any significant increase or decrease in the exchange rate over the provided period.

2. Identifying Recurring Patterns

The data does not exhibit any clear recurring patterns or seasonality. The exchange rate is recorded as static at 0.00164 up until the timestamp "2024-04-22 09:35:03" from when it rose slightly to 0.00165. It maintained this increased rate up until at "2024-04-22 11:25:02", when it decreased back to the initial 0.00164 rate. Outside of this instance, the rates remained entirely consistent at the 0.00164 level throughout the rest of the dataset. This could potentially indicate a period of slightly increased volatility, though it does not recur enough times to confirm a pattern.

3. Outliers

From examining the data, it appears there are no significant outliers. The only change in the data at all occurs during the brief period mentioned previously, but the change is so small and short-lived, that it doesn't necessarily fit the standard definition of an outlier. The rates hover around the 0.00164 to 0.00165 mark across the entire dataset.

Additional Notes

While this analysis does not take into account external factors, such as market category opening/closing times, weekends/holidays, or instances of key financial news and report releases, it should be noted that these factors can and often do have significant impacts on exchange rates. Depending on the precision required and the seriousness of the investment or analysis, these factors may need to be included in a more comprehensive analysis.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Understanding The Overall Trend Of The exchange rates

Based on the provided time-series data of exchange rates (AOA), it appears that the exchange rate values generally stay stable across the period, fluctuating slightly between 0.00161 and 0.00166. There is no significant overall trend of consistent increase or decrease in the rates over the given period.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, given the limited variability in the data, it is challenging to identify any clear seasonal patterns from this text-based dataset. A more visual analytical approach such as plot graph might offer clearer insights regarding any recurring patterns in this data.

3. Noting Outliers or Unexpected Instances

Considering the narrow range of values and the absence of pronounced fluctuations, it is difficult to identify any clear outliers within the dataset. The exchange rate varies minimally around the common values and no instances of dramatically high or low rates can be reasonably termed as outliers.

Please note that this analysis is based solely on the numerical data provided and does not consider any potential contextual factors such as news events, market conditions, or economic reports.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

The provided dataset starts at an exchange rate of 0.00164 and ends at 0.00164, reflecting a stable rate. However, there is a minor upward and downward trend within this period. The exchange rate increases slowly to 0.00166, then decreases back to 0.00164. There does not seem to be a consistent increasing or decreasing rate over this time.

Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates

Based on the given data, there is little evidence of any seasonality or recurring patterns in the AOA exchange rates. The rate hovers between 0.00164 and 0.00166 throughout the period. The changes do not seem to follow a set pattern at certain times of the day or days of the month. This result may be different if a broader timeframe or a more granular time interval (like minutes or seconds) was considered.

Noting any outliers in the exchange rates

• The dataset does not show any clear outliers. The rates only fluctuate slightly within the small range of 0.00164 to 0.00166. This minimal variation reduces the chances of having significant outliers in this set of data.

To summarize, these findings suggest that the AOA exchange rate was fairly stable within the selected time frame, with minor fluctuations but no discernible seasonality pattern or notable outliers. However, this analysis is based strictly on the numerical data provided, without any consideration of external factors like market hours, weekends, holidays, or financial news impact.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Your data includes only two distinct exchange rates (0.00165 and 0.00164) changing over time. From this, it's challenging to determine a progress or pattern or identify outliers. However, based on the data's current status:

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates:

The exchange rate seems to fluctuate between 0.00165 and 0.00164, showcasing a relatively stable trend. There is no distinct increasing or decreasing pattern over the period.

Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates:

Given the limited amount of data and consistency of the exchange rate values, no significant seasonality or recurring patterns can be identified.

Instances where the exchange rate differs significantly:

Since the exchange rates showed no changes beyond 0.00164 and 0.00165, we don't have any outliers in the data or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected.

These interpretations are based solely on the dataset provided. Complex influences such as economic news, government policies, and market conditions might add nuances to this analysis, demanding more sophisticated prediction models and further data.