Yuan Renminbi Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

In reviewing the whole dataset, the exchange rate of CNY has demonstrated a gradual yet minor decrease from the starting value of 0.18893 to 0.18842 over the period in question. Although there are fluctuations in the data, the general trend appears to be a subtle downtrend. However, it's significant to acknowledge that the range of the movement is narrow, signifying a relatively stable exchange rate during the examined period.

2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Due to the limited scope of the provided data, and without including external factors such as weekdays/weekends and market opening/closing hours, definitive seasonal or cyclical patterns are difficult to ascertain. However, a certain level of intraday volatility can indeed be inferred, suggesting that minor fluctuations in the exchange rate are not unlikely. More extensive data or information on external factors would be necessary to identify clear patterns in exchange rate changes.

3. Outliers in the Data

With regard to outliers, or significant deviations from the anticipated values based on the identified trends or patterns, they seem not to be exceedingly apparent in the given dataset. This applies specifically when considering that the overall range of the exchange rate is narrow in the observed period. Nevertheless, any abrupt jumps or dips could have been influenced by factors not provided in the dataset like the effect of unforeseen news events or market reactions.

Please remember that this analysis is based solely on the data provided and does not consider other potentially influencing factors such as geopolitical events, policy changes, or economic indicators. Further, expert judgment and domain understanding are integral to enhance the interpretability and usability of this data analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
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Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

From a surface-level analysis of the dataset, it appears that there may be a mild upward trend, with the value of the exchange rate increasing slightly with time. The lowest value in the data is 0.18856 while the highest is 0.18947. The range is very small and while there are slight increases it does not appear that there are any dramatic shifts in either direction.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in Exchange Rates

Due to the short time frame of this data, there does not appear to be a clear seasonal or recurring pattern. The exchange rate seems to fluctuate slightly up and down with no consistent pattern, but without notable spikes or drops. We may need a larger dataset that spans over multiple years to determine any seasonal or recurring patterns, as such patterns often require a long-term data to be visible.

Outliers in the Dataset

There do not appear to be any outliers in this data set. All values fall within a very narrow range, and none deviate dramatically from the mean. This indicates that the exchange rate remained relatively stable over the period data was collected.

No Specific Event Consideration

We noted above that no guidelines on specific event consideration were to be taken into account. Hence, this report doesn't consider the effects of circumstances such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the releasing of key financial news and reports.

Forecasting

We were specifically instructed not to produce any forecast for future rates, so this analysis is concentrated on describing the patterns and characteristics of the historical data rather than predicting future trends.

Concluding Remarks

The exchange rate among the provided timestamp presents slight fluctuations, however, no prevalent upward or downward trend can be identified over this specific period. Also, there are no outliers identified and the absence of seasonal trends is likely due to the short time span of data.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Observing the trends in the provided timeseries data, the exchange rate mostly stays within the range of 0.1885 to 0.1892. This indicates a relatively stable exchange rate throughout the period. However, there is a slight decrease in the value starting at 0.1892 and dropping to approximately 0.1885 by the end of the given period. Although the trend is not significantly strong, it exists.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Upon examination of the provided data, there do not appear to be any distinct seasonal or cyclic patterns. The exchange rate's fluctuations are largely smooth and consistent, with no clear repeating trends that would indicate the presence of a seasonal cycle. This could be due to the nature of currency exchange rate, which is susceptible to numerous variables and spontaneous market adjustments.

Outliers Analysis

When considering outliers in this dataset, the most noticeable one occurs at date '2024-04-23 09:05:02' with a value significantly lower than the other values. There is a drop to 0.18863 from the more consistent value above 0.189 before this timestamp.

It is also important to note that no extreme deviations from the generally observed range occur, displaying the relative stability of the exchange rate during this particular period.

To summarize, the exchange rate of CNY in the provided period appears to be relatively stable despite a slight decrease trend. No clearly recurrent patterns are discernible in the given data, and there is one notable outlier.

Summary of Last Month

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Trend

Analysis of exchange rates

1. Understanding the Overall Trend

By examining the dataset, a clear trend is discernible. The overall exchange rate seems to have slight fluctuations, yet it remains generally stable over the time period. There's a slight increment at the start, with the initial value being 0.18953, which peaks at 0.1898 midway, and then slightly decreases to 0.18908 by the end of the dataset. The fluctuation range is very narrow which indicates a stable market.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Considering this data to identify any seasonality trends or recurring patterns is challenging due to the very short-term nature of the data, as it only encompasses one day. However, there is slight evidence of certain times having lower rates compared to others. For example, the rates tended to decrease slightly during the later hours of the day. But to establish a firm conclusion on seasonality, a larger dataset encompassing several months or years would be more helpful.

3. Presence of Outliers

Regarding outliers in the data, there does not appear to be any instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would generally be expected based on the pattern. The rates remain generally within the same narrow range throughout this day. There are minor short-term fluctuations, but nothing that appears significantly anomalous, implying the market was relatively stable during this period.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Upon analyzing the given data, it can be seen that the exchange rates have been relatively stable over time with slight fluctuations. From March 22, 2024, to April 19, 2024, the value has increased from 0.18768 to 0.1898 which is a slow upward trend. But the rate had a peak on April 12, 2024, where it reached 0.19044 after which there is a slight decrease and fluctuation.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Due to the tight timeframe of the dataset, it's a bit challenging to identify any clear seasonality or recurring patterns. However, based on the given dataset, it seems there is a slight pattern of increase in exchange rates during the start of the day, typically around 02:00:02 time, and again around 10:00:02 time. Conversely, there's a slight decline towards the later parts of the day, around 22:00:02 time.

Identifying Outliers

With respect to the overall trend and observed patterns, there are few outliers that could be spotted in the dataset.

• The exchange rate reached its peak value of 0.19044 on April 12, 2024, which is a bit higher than the rates observed around this date.
• Another noticeable outlier is seen on April 10, 2024, where the exchange rate jumped from 0.18745 to 0.18866 between 06:00:02 to 08:00:03 time, which is a significant increase within such a short period.
• Lastly, a significant drop could be observed on April 3, 2024 around 10:00:03 time, where the exchange rate fell from 0.18754 to 0.18683 within a short span.

These instances show fluctuations that are markedly different from the usual observed variations in the dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Observing the dataset provided, the overall trend of the exchange rates over the time period given is somewhat inconsistent but displays a general stability with minor fluctuations. The rates seem to start at approximately 0.18991, peaking at around 0.19108 before finally closing at around 0.18980. The lack of significant rises or drops throughout the timeline suggests a fairly stable exchange rate, although minor fluctuations are present.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

In terms of finding any seasonatility or recurring pattern, it's challenging based on this dataset as it covers a relatively short time frame from 15th April to 19th April and spans only for five days. Although specific hourly patterns or daily cycles might be detected with a more granular level of data, the presently provided data doesn't necessarily allow for the detection of longstanding seasonal trends or recurring patterns.

Outliers in the Exchange Rates

Regarding outliers within the dataset, a few can be noted while being aware that 'outliers' are somewhat subject to interpretation in financial data. Depending on the chosen measure of central tendency and spread, different data points may be considered extreme.

• On the 15th of April, the rate unexpectedly went up to 0.19053 from the previous value of 0.19013, which can be considered as an outlier because it is a considerable jump from the consistent minor changes we see otherwise.
• Similarly on the 16th April, the rate increased to 0.19108, from a previous rate of 0.19079, which can be considered as another outlier due to the substantial change.

Again, it's important to remember that within financial data, 'outliers' are less about being statistical anomalies and more about being significant deviations from expected behaviour.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

The overall trend of the CNY exchange rate in the provided data set appears to be relatively stable. The beginning rate starts at 0.19034 and ends at 0.18994. Although there are a few minor fluctuations between these points, the overall change is not significant. The minor changes in the rates suggest a somewhat steady market during this time period.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Upon analyzing the data, I was unable to identify clear evidence of any strong seasonality or recurring patterns within the exchange rate fluctuations. The rates seem to move with a random pattern instead, staying within a narrow range during the whole time period. This could be due to the short timeframe and the absence of any considerable external stimuli (as we are disregarding factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports).

Outliers Analysis

Outliers in this data set appear to be minimal, if any. Most fluctuations in the exchange rates remain within a tight span. This suggests that during this time period, the market was relatively stable and there weren't any significant events that could cause a dramatic increase or decrease in the rates.

Conclusion

Based on the provided data and within the stated constraints, the overall trend of the CNY exchange rate during this time period is stable, with no clear seasonality or outlier events affecting it substantially.