Serbian Dinar Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

After analyzing the dataset that provided timestamps and corresponding RSD exchange rates, here are my findings:

1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The RSD exchange rate, over the period, seems to show a slight fluctuation between 0.0125 to 0.01254. It seems that a slight increase is going on as it first starts at around 0.01251 and by the end it is hovering around 0.01253. The data does not indicate a significant increase or decrease in the exchange rate over time and appears relatively stable.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

When looking at the data, it appears that the exchange rate does not show a clear-cut pattern or seasonality as the price consistently hovers around the same value over time. The exchange rate seems to be more random and less influenced by any distinct cyclical trends based on the timestamps.

3. Outliers in the Data

In this dataset, there does not appear to be clear outliers. Most of the rates vary within a very tight range of 0.0125 to 0.01254. There are no significant jumps or drops observed in the given period. This suggests consistency in the rates. However, without the context of market events or related financial news, it's hard to gauge dramatic changes or anomalies only from the given data.

Remember, this analysis is conducted based on the provided data and does not take into account other external factors related to economic indicators, fiscal policy, geo-political risks, or other factors that can significantly influence exchange rates. For a more comprehensive picture of RSD exchange rate behavior, a broader range of data along with the context would need to be considered.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

In this dataset, we collected the exchange rates (RSD) at different timestamps, spanning from 00:00:02 to 23:55:02 in 24th April 2024. Here is the comprehensive analysis:

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

The value of the exchange rate varied between 0.01247 and 0.01252 over the given period. It's important to note that these rates fluctuated within a very tight range, suggesting that exchange rate is quite stable for the given day. There was a minor increase from 0.01248 at the start of the day to 0.01251 by the end of the day, indicating a mild uptrend.

Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the change of exchange rates

The exchange rate data seem to have no specific recurring pattern within the day - it fluctuates slightly but generally maintains stability. However, we notice some degree of repetitive patterns such as periods where the exchange rate remains consistent, sometimes for an hour or so, followed by a minor fluctuation. These patterns repeat multiple times throughout the given timespan.

Outliers and unexpected fluctuations

The exchange rate data stays within a narrow band—around 0.01248 and 0.01252. Any significant deviation outside of this range could be considered as an outlier. From the given data, there are no drastic changes or outliers observed.

Overall, the analysis of the time series data of this specific date reveals a largely steady exchange rate, with minor fluctuations and no unexpected jumps or falls. The identified patterns and trends give an insight into the stability of the economy on this particular day.

Please note that for a more accurate understanding of the exchange rate's behaviour, a longer period may be required. This would help ascertain any long-term trends, cyclical patterns, and the potential impact of external factors not considered in this specific analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analysis of the Exchange Rate Trend

The exchange rate data provided is in a time series format consisting of values taken at evenly spaced intervals. Scanning through the datasets, it is noticeable that the exchange rate maintained a fairly stable movement throughout the period under review. The rate started at 0.01246 and drifted slightly downwards and upwards in minor fractions, signifying that the exchange rate during the period represented, has a somewhat horizontal or stagnant overall trend.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, the data provided does not show any distinctive cyclical pattern. The exchange rate remains fairly consistent throughout the observed period, with very minimal variation. This consistency suggests that there may not be any recurring patterns in the change of exchange rates based on the time of day or specific dates. Again, considering the stability and uniformity of the observed rates, no noteworthy seasonality can be identified.

Outliers within the Exchange Rates

Given the stability and consistency of the exchange rate throughout the dataset, any significant deviations would be considered as outliers. Such outliers can be spikes or troughs in the exchange rate that break away from the pattern of minor fluctuation displayed in the data set. In this particular dataset, there are no significant outliers present. All exchange rates observed have maintained a steady state, fluctuating between 0.01244 and 0.01249, which is a very narrow band. This consistency in the given time period signifies a pretty steady and stable exchange rate environment.

Additional Insights

Despite the data provided does not visibly show trends, patterns, or outliers, a more advanced statistical analysis could provide a deeper insight into the data. Techniques such as performing decomposition of the time series into trend, seasonality, and residuals or conducting a spectral analysis to identify any hidden cycles might potentially reveal more details. However, without incorporating external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, release of key financial news and reports, the analysis will be limited.

Summary of Last Month

• Opening:
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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The dataset reflects exchange rate movements from 0.01249 to 0.01246 over the span of a day. There is observable a very slight downward trend within the provided data. The exchange rate began at 0.01249 and gradually decrease to 0.01246. It is, however, important to note that while the overall trend shows a decrease, the fluctuations are very minor, and the exchange rate largely exhibits a strong level of stability.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, the provided dataset does not show any significant changes that indicate a regular, repeating pattern within the 24-hour period. While there are minor fluctuations throughout, they appear to be random rather than forming a discernible pattern. This suggests that there may not be significant seasonal or hourly impacts on this exchange rate for this specific day.

3. Noting any Outliers

Across the observed data, no significant outliers are apparent in the dataset. The exchange rate ranged from a high of 0.01250 and a low of 0.01245, which is a relatively minimal spread, suggesting that no radical fluctuations or unusual activities occurred in the market at those times. This further demonstrates the stability of the exchange rate within this specific day.

Please, note that while this analysis provides insights into the behavior of the exchange rate within the given day, these findings might not hold true for other periods, given the myriad of factors that can affect currency exchange rates.

Summary of Last Week

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

The data provided is a series of timestamped exchange rates. The following analysis examines general trends, potential patterns, and outliers, but does not consider specific events, market hours, or other external factors. Furthermore, no forecast will be provided as per request.

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

On observing the data, it can be seen that the exchange rates seem to have minor fluctuations. The range appears to lie primarily between 0.01243 to 0.01260. It seems like the rates have a general tendency to increase at the start, reach a peak, then decrease, only to rise again later. However, it's important to note the absence of any distinct and consistent upward or downward progression over the time frame presented.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Analysing time series data for recurring patterns or seasonality may not provide an accurate interpretation in the context of exchange rates as they can be impacted by a lot of factors external to this dataset. Nevertheless, no clear seasonality or repetitive patterns are apparent from the data provided.

3. Noting Outliers

No considerable outliers are noted in the given data. That is, all rates in the dataset fall within a narrow range and there are no remarkable instances where the exchange rate deviates significantly from the usual trend.

Overall, the exchange rates in this time series seem to fluctuate within a relatively stable range without exhibiting a specific trend, seasonality, or distinct outliers. However, a statistical analysis or visualization might be needed to shed more light on these conclusions.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analysis of RSD Exchange Rate

The dataset provided consists of timestamped RSD exchange rate data. The format of each entry is a date and time, followed by the corresponding exchange rate at that time. I have thoroughly analyzed the data, focusing on the overall trend, recurring patterns, and possible outliers. Here's what I've found:

1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The overall trend of the exchange rates is relatively stable, with minor fluctuations throughout the data. The rate starts at 0.01251 on 2024-04-15 and ends at 0.01250 on 2024-04-19, exhibiting a slight downward movement. Furthermore, the biggest change in the exchange rate was from 0.01255 on 2024-04-17 to 0.01253 on 2024-04-18, a difference of 0.00002. This suggests that this currency pair is potentially less volatile compared to other currency pairs during this specific period.

2. Seasonality of Exchange Rates

No clear seasonality is observable in this dataset. However, to conclusively determine the presence or absence of seasonality, we would need more extensive data covering multiple years and ideally, including data for all hours of the day. Given that some hours are missing in this dataset, it's challenging to draw a conclusion about any daily patterns that may be present.

3. Outliers

Considering the overall stability of the rate, very few outliers were observed. Every fluctuation in the exchange rate throughout this period is within the range of 0.01248 to 0.01255. However, on certain dates like 2024-04-16 and 2024-04-19, we see the exchange rate dropping to 0.01248, which could be considered an outlier considering the rest of the data.

Conclusion

In conclusion, this analysis presents a limited view of the currency's behavior as the dataset covers a short period and is not complete for all hours of the day. Nonetheless, the given dataset displays a general stability in the RSD exchange rate with minor fluctuations and occasional outliers. More comprehensive data would allow a further detailed understanding of trends, seasonality and volatility of this rate.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Based on dataset provided, it is important to note that the entirety of the analysis is purely predicated on the given data and does not consider external factors like opening and closing of market hours, weekends, holidays, and key financial news and reports.

Trend of the Exchange Rates

From the given set of timestamps, there is not a manifestly significant fluctuation. The range of data is between 0.01248 and 0.01253. The exchange rates appear to be generally stable over the range of the given data. There are minute changes, but no broadly noticeable upward or downward trend. Any increases or decreases are short-lived and quickly revert to the median exchange rate, reflecting a reasonable level of stability in this particular exchange rate.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Given the nature of the data and the limited insight that can be gathered within a singular day, there are not any discernible patterns or seasonal trends in the RSD's exchange rate from the data. While there are small fluctuations in the rate, they don't appear to consistently follow a particular trend.

Identifying Outliers

There are no significant outliers or instances where the provided data deviates from the established range of values. All of the observations fall within the narrow range from 0.01248 to 0.01253. There is no data point that could be considered an outlier, as the changes are both minimal and consistent. Hence, the exchange rate remains steadfast throughout this given period.

In summary, the exchange rate has remained fairly stable throughout the period in question. This stability can be beneficial in certain financial contexts, especially for those who value predictability over rapid fluctuation. The data, however, should be closely monitored for any significant variances in future.