Serbian Dinar Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    In reviewing the provided data, the overall trend in exchange rates appears to be stable over the period shown. The exchange rate of RSD began at 0.01255 and remained generally at this value through a significant majority of the given period. Toward the middle of the time period, there were minute increases to an exchange rate of up to 0.01258 before it returned to around 0.01252 towards the end of the dataset. The minor fluctuations are within a very narrow band, implying a degree of stability throughout this period.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Upon investigating the presence of seasonality or recurring patterns, it appears no significant patterns exist. Given the stable nature of this dataset, with only very slight variations, a discernible pattern or cyclical behavior does not strongly emerge. The minor variations occurring do not appear to follow a predictable pattern, suggesting that other factors could be causing these shifts.

    Identification of Outliers

    In examining the dataset for any anomalies or outliers, it seems that the exchange rate data provided does not present any significant outliers. All rate fluctuations appear to be within a very narrow band, and there are no pronounced deviations from the expected figures based on the trend. Owing to the consistency of the rates throughout the provided period, it appears to be a stable dataset with no prominent outliers.

    Please note, these observations are subject to the data provided and do not take into account any external economic factors or events, market hours, or financial reports/releases that could potentially influence the exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

    From the dataset provided, it appears that the exchange rates (RSD) remain quite stable over the period in question. The rate starts at 0.01252 and ends at 0.01255. Although there are minor fluctuations throughout the dataset, the trend is very slight. The values fluctuate between 0.01251 and 0.01256. This indicates a very stable exchange rate with no significant increases or decreases observed at first glance.

    2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    With the data at hand, it is difficult to identify a clear seasonality or recurring pattern in the changes of exchange rates. Since the dataset covers a short duration (one day), detecting seasonality may require a longer timeframe. Also, the values are closely similar, making it even more difficult to identify any patterns. Thus, no clear seasonal patterns can be observed from this dataset.

    3. Noting Outliers or Significant Changes

    Given the very small range of exchange rate fluctuations (0.01251 - 0.01256) over the span of the dataset, it seems that there aren't any significant outliers or instances where the rate deviates substantially from the general trend. This suggests that the exchange rate remained very consistent throughout this particular date with no abnormal changes that deviated from its slight fluctuations.

    Note:

    The above observations are strictly drawn from the provided dataset and do not take into account any external market factors that may typically impact exchange rates such as market opening/closing hours, weekends or holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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    Overall Trend Analysis

    By analyzing the provided time-series data of changes in the RSD exchange rate, it's observed that the exchange rate has generally experienced a subtle, steady increase over the displayed timeframe. The RSD started from 0.01247 and gradually increased to about 0.01252. The trend does not exhibit any rapid growth or sharp declines, suggesting a stable economic environment during this period.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Upon close examination, no discernible seasonality trend or strong recurring patterns can be observed from the dataset. The values appear to rise slightly, then stabilize for a period before a slight rise again. While this minor fluctuation suggests a repeated pattern of a slow increase followed by a period of stability, it would require a more intensive frequency-based analysis (i.e., Fourier Analysis) to conclusively state the existence of conspicuous recurring fluctuations.

    Outliers Analysis

    Given the information that we have, it appears that there are no significant outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the general trend. The fluctuations remain within a narrow interval (approx 0.01247 - 0.01252), and no surge or plunge can be observed that would be considered as an outlier. However, a more rigorous statistical test would be needed for a certain classification of any extreme value as an outlier.

    Please note this analysis is based purely on the information provided and does not factor in external circumstances like market openness, weekends, holidays, or the release of any significant financial news and reports. Also, this observation does not predict any future trends in the exchange rates.

Summary of Last Week

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    Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Looking at the provided data, there are subtle fluctuations in the exchange rate over time. However, the overall trend seems to be relatively stable, as the rate starts at 0.01244 and ends at 0.01247. This indicates a minor increase, but the changes are not drastic over the studied period.

    Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns

    While the data provides timestamps down to the second, with the given data, it is challenging to identify a clear seasonal or cyclical pattern given the level of granularity in time. A minute-by-minute or even second-by-second analysis might be necessary to identify such patterns. It is also important to note that patterns at this level could be influenced by a significant number of factors, and a deeper, more granular analysis might be required.

    Noting any outliers or significant deviations from the trend

    In a cursory observation of the data provided, there don't seem to be any significant outliers or unusual instances where the exchange rate noticeably deviates from the overall pattern. All rates appear to fall within a very close range. However, for a more accurate analysis, a statistical approach might be required to precisely identify any outliers or deviations. Furthermore, given the high volume of data points, minor deviations might not immediately stand out.

    In conclusion, while there are subtle changes in the provided exchange rate over time, the overall pattern appears steady without any significant deviations. Further, more detailed analysis with additional or complementary data might yield more insights.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    The dataset portrays a very slightly increasing trend over the time period shown. It starts off at an exchange rate of 0.0124 and closes at a rate of 0.01248. This is a marginal increase, but it does suggest that the exchange rate is not completely stable and is inclined slightly towards growth. There were numerous instances where the rates remained stable for a substantial period of time, such as the stretch from 2024-02-19 01:00:02 to 2024-02-19 02:00:02 where the rate remained at 0.0124. But even the peak rate (0.01249) is not significantly higher than the initial and final rates, suggesting that the rate overall remained fairly steady.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

    While analyzing the given time series financial data, we observed no clear patterns suggesting seasonality. The movements of the rates appear to be random and unpredictable based on the current data. No cyclical pattern is identifiable through the provided timestamps.

    3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

    An outlier in this dataset is the rate of 0.01249 at 2024-02-20 09:00:04, which might be considered as the peak when studied against the general trend. However, considering the small value difference between this and other readings, this variation can still fall within plausible fluctuations in financial markets, and it may not be considered a significant divergence.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overview of Data

    This dataset contains the exchange rates (RSD) at different times (timestamps) over a specified duration. Nevertheless, the time data provided seems to be in minute intervals, which means it's high frequency data.

    Overall trend of exchange rates

    The overarching trend exhibits minimal volatility during the period under review. The RSD exchange rate remains relatively steady, but there do appear to be minor fluctuations, as the rates move between 0.01244 and 0.01248. The rate appears to be largely stable over the period displayed, especially between hours 00:00:02 and about 07:25:03 when the base rate is 0.01245. From this juncture, we can see a slight increase peaking at 0.01248 around 10:20:03. The rate subsequently experiences a minor decrease to 0.01247 around 11:20:02 and maintains that level for the remaining period.

    Seasonality or recurring patterns

    Given the short-time frame presented (essentially over a single day), it's challenging to definitively remark on any extended seasonality or recurring patterns as these typically emerge over a longer timeline. However, one discernable pattern is that the rate increases slightly from 0.01245 to 0.01248 between approximately 07:25:03 to 10:20:03 before it falls back to 0.01247 and maintains. This pattern could be a daily occurrence, but it would require more data across multiple days to confidently make this assertion.

    Identifying outliers

    In the context of exchange rate movements, outliers could be seen as sudden and drastic rate changes within a short period. In this dataset, such instances do not appear. The rates proceed in minor, gradual steps. Even when the rate changes, this adjustment takes place over several hours, which could indicate a natural market rise or fall rather than an unexpected outlier event.

    Please note that this analysis is purely based on the provided data and does not consider external factors like market opening/closure hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of essential financial news and reports. These factors could influence the market and the observed exchange rates.