Trinidad and Tobago Dollar Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend

The data shows a slight overall downward trend for the exchange rate over the given period. The exchange rate started at 0.20207 and ended at 0.20097, showing a decrease. However, it's worth noting that the changes are quite small, suggesting a relative stability in the rates despite the slight downward trend.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Regarding seasonality, the time series doesn't seem to show any clear recurring patterns at particular times of the day or specific intervals. The changes in the exchange rate appear to be random rather than cyclical. This suggests that the exchange rate changes are not strongly affected by any regular, predictable factors.

Outliers

Most of the exchange rates fall within a narrow range, with a minimum of 0.20087 and a maximum of 0.20209, indicating that large swings in the rate are rare. This suggests that most of the changes in the exchange rate can be considered normal, and there don't appear to be significant outliers in the data.

In conclusion, while the exchange rate shows a slight overall downward trend over the period, it largely remains stable. There don't appear to be any significant outliers or clear patterns of seasonality. Therefore, any fluctuations seem to be the result of random changes rather than predictable or recurring factors.

Summary of Yesterday

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  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

From the analysis of the dataset, we could observe that there was a slight fluctuation in the exchange rates over time. Initial exchange rate was 0.20239 and the rate at the end of the time series data was 0.20208. While there were minor increases and decreases along the way, the overall trend appears to remain relatively stable, with no prominent upward or downward pattern over the time period shown.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

As for seasonal patterns or recurrent behavior, it is challenging to identify any distinct patterns within the given data. Exchange rates are typically influenced by a wide range of factors, such as inflation rates, interest rates, country’s debt level, and political stability, thus changes may not necessarily follow regular patterns. But still, when referring to the dataset, there doesn't appear to be any clear repeated cycle or a noticeable trend which might suggest seasonality in our data.

3. Noting Any Outliers

Regarding outliers, the given data doesn’t seem to contain any extreme values. Most of the rates fall within the range of 0.2017 to 0.2027. There were no instances observed where the exchange rate differed significantly from the majority of the other rates which would potentially disrupt the overall trend.

Note: Truly understanding currency price patterns requires extensive and in-depth analysis often involving complex algorithms and models. It's also important to consider that the foreign exchange market is deeply influenced by external events and geopolitical news, which aren't included in this analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend of The Exchange Rates

The dataset presents an overall trend of fluctuating exchange rates for the time period provided. There seems to be no clear pattern of increasing or decreasing rates but rather a slight wave-like trend. The exchange rates typically move between 0.2015 and 0.2024. These fluctuations suggest that the exchange rates are affected by various economic factors and events, leading to the observed changes.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Upon analyzing the time series data, it seems there is no clear seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates. The rates fluctuate quite randomly over the specified time period. However, it is noted that there is a marginally increased frequency of higher rates towards the mid of the observation windows. Therefore, while there is no noticeable seasonal trend, a slight cyclical pattern can be suggested.

Noting Any Outliers

In the context of this data set, outliers are instances where the exchange rate significantly differs from the expected rate based on the past trend. Upon review, no significant outliers were spotted in this dataset. The TTD exchange rate remains within close range of the above mentioned values throughout the time period. There are no instances where the exchange rate significantly deviates from this range, suggesting that the currency is somewhat stable during this period.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates.

After analyzing the given time-series data, it is clear that the exchange rates have been slightly fluctuating throughout the given period. The TTD exchange rate starts from 0.20229 and goes up to 0.20265, then lowers to 0.20175, and again raises up to 0.20233. Although there are a few ups and downs, the exchange rate remains mostly stable. There's no clear increasing or decreasing trend in the exchange rates over the data period.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates.

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, the dataset do not appear to clearly exhibit typical seasonal trends or recurring patterns at first glance. The time-series is more or less stable around a certain value with only slight fluctuation above and below it. However, to thoroughly establish the absence of seasonality, a more advanced time-series analysis (like autocorrelation plots or Fourier analysis) would be required which is not conducted in this scope.

3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality.

There are a few slight spikes in the data, for instance, the spikes at around 08:35 (value 0.20265) and most values that are slightly out of the common range could be considered as mild outliers. But, as the overall data appears quite stable, these would not be significant outliers that warrant specific attention in this context.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Upon visual inspection of the data, it appears that the TTD exchange rate fluctuates within a fairly narrow range within the period covered by the data set while maintaining a generally stable trend. However, some minor increases and decreases are noticeable. It is important to note that the rate rarely exceeds the threshold of 0.205 or falls below 0.198. Therefore, it can be postulated that the currency was fairly stable within this period.

Identifying Any Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

From the provided time series data, it's difficult to explicitly identify any seasonal trends or recurring patterns without further statistical or graphical analysis. Time series data often exhibit patterns over longer periods, such as month-to-month or year-to-year trends, which the provided data does not seem to span enough for these types of patterns to emerge. Therefore, to ascertain any seasonality or recurring patterns, a more detailed analysis would be necessary.

Noting Any Outliers

Outliers in time series data are unusual values that do not seem to fit the overall pattern. Without additional visual or statistical analysis, it's challenging to identify concrete outliers in the provided data set based on the numerical data alone. No conspicuous jumps in exchange rates that would indicate sharp increases or decreases can be identified at first glance. However, more sophisticated statistical techniques would be needed for a definitive identification of outliers.

Overall, this preliminary analysis suggests a generally stable TTD exchange rate within the given time frame. Thus, it provides a suitable basis for further, more detailed analysis to gain a deeper understanding of the underlying patterns and trends in the data.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analysis of TTD Exchange Rate Time Series Data

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Upon analyzing the exchange rates provided for TTD, it appears that the rate over the given period does not show a very strong trend in any particular direction. It oscillates between the values of 0.20207 and 0.20383 with minor fluctuations. The highest observed exchange rate was 0.20383 while the lowest recorded was 0.20207. Used over the course of a few days, the data seems to neither indicate a consistent uptrend nor a downtrend. In fact, at a general level, the rates seem relatively stable, though with slight short-term fluctuations. However, for a robust trend analysis, a longer time series data would have been more beneficial.

2. Identifying any Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in the Changes of Exchange Rates

Analysis of the time series data does not show any distinct recurring pattern at hourly intervals. The rates do not display consistent cyclical or seasonal fluctuations that repeat after specific intervals. Although there are some hour-to-hour changes, these do not form a reliable pattern that could be classified as seasonal trends within the given timeframe. Similar to the trend analysis, correct identification of seasonal patterns would potentially require data spanning over several years, which would account for annual economic cycles or influences.

3. Noting Any Outliers or Instances Where The Exchange Rate Differs Significantly

Based on the data, there appear to be no significant outliers. The rates remain within a narrow range for the whole given period, neither surging nor dropping drastically at any point. Any minute-to-minute or hour-to-hour variation seems to be part of the normal fluctuation range and does not diverge excessively from the overall patterns observed. Thus, significant outliers – if any – are not present in the given data set.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while the TTD exchange rate shows minor hourly fluctuations, the general trend remains relatively stable within the provided dataset's range. There seem to be no pronounced seasonality patterns or prominent outliers in the data. It should be remembered that this analysis is solely based on the given dataset and the interpretation might change with additional data or factors not included in the analysis. As requested, external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, the release of key financial news, and reports were not considered in this analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Overall Trend

From an initial glance at the data, there does not appear to be a pronounced increase or decrease trend in the TTD exchange rates during the timeframe (2024-04-19 00:00:02 to 2024-04-19 14:55:01). The rate starts at 0.2023 at the beginning of the day and ends at 0.2025 on the end of this timeframe, depicting a relatively stable trend with minor fluctuations.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

The frequency of change in exchange rates indicates that this data might be intraday trading data. However, within the provided single day timeframe, it's not completely possible to decipher any seasonality or recurring patterns. For identifying seasonal trends, a dataset spanning multiple weeks, months, or years could be more informative.

3. Outliers

At 06:25:02 the exchange rate jumps up from 0.20216 to 0.20276, indicating a spike. This might be an outlier or due to a specific event during that timeframe, affecting the market temporarily. After this spike, the rate seems to stabilize again. A similar but less significant drop can be observed at 09:05:03, where the exchange rate falls from 0.20248 to 0.20231. These observations might be considered as outliers that diverge from the common stable trend.

4. External Factors

While you have requested to ignore external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, it's worth mentioning that these factors could significantly affect the exchange rates. However, the provided data, with minor fluctuations and a few outliers, does not show drastic swings that could be associated with such external influences within this one day period.

Note: The above analysis offers a basic understanding of the dataset you've provided. For a more robust and detailed analysis, longer-term data and consideration of external market-related factors would be necessary.

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