Trinidad and Tobago Dollar Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    General Trend Analysis

    The data set provided reveals a general trend in exchange rates over the given time frame. The beginning value starts from 0.2002 and ends at 0.19972. This indicates a slight downward trend in the exchange rate for this period.

    Observations on Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    Regarding seasonality and recurring patterns, this dataset doesn't show a clear seasonal or repetitive pattern at first sight. The exchange rate oscillates around the 0.200 mark and slightly decreases over time, but it's difficult to decipher clear patterns or cycles in this raw data. A more in-depth statistical analysis or decomposition would be necessary to highlight any undetected patterns.

    Identifying Outliers

    There are certain data points within the dataset that could be considered as outliers. These data points are instances where the exchange rates have experienced significant changes compared to the surrounding data points. However, without additional information, it is hard to determine the specific reasons that caused these deviations. The potential outliers in the data may need further investigation to ascertain the causes of these sharp fluctuations.

    Overall, while a general downward trend can be inferred from this dataset, the data does not reveal any clear cyclical patterns or seasonality. While there are potential outliers in the data, without further information, it's not possible to explain these discrepancies based on the data alone.

    Please note that based on this initial analysis, more sophisticated forecasting models, additional data, or external market information may be required to achieve a more comprehensive understanding of these exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    1. Overall Trend Analysis

    Based on the data provided, there is a mild increasing trend in the TTD exchange rate during the period observed. The rate started at around 0.19926 and ended around 0.20016, which represents a slight rise. However, the changes were not drastic and there were periods of both increases and decreases, indicating some fluctuation. Overall though, the trend suggests a slight weakening of the TTD.

    2. Seasonality Analysis

    For recurring patterns, it is challenging to conclusively comment on this without data over multiple similar periods (for example, over multiple years or multiple months). Still, the data provided does not suggest any notable hourly or daily seasonality upon first examination. Some times show a minor increase in exchange rates, followed by minimal decreases, but these events don't seem to follow a particular pattern based on the provided timescale.

    3. Outliers Analysis

    In the given dataset, there are no significant outliers. All the values of the exchange rate cluster around the 0.199 - 0.201 range. No value deviates significantly from the others or from the overall trend that would indicate a notable event or error during the given period.

    However, future analysis should bear in mind that economic factors, market regulations, or unexpected events can all cause sharp changes or outliers in exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    The overall trend of the exchange rates appear to be generally stable throughout the given period as the rates seem to range between 0.19856 and 0.19901. While there are some minor fluctuations, they do not represent significant variations in the exchange rates. The rates started with around 0.19857 and ended up at around 0.19863. Although there is a slight increase over the period, the rate of increase is minimal and thus it can be concluded that the overall trend of the exchange rates remains largely constant.

    Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

    The data provided does not seem to show any pronounced seasonality or recurring patterns. The rates are fluctuating on a very narrow range which makes it difficult to find a regular pattern or seasonality. Typically, to identify seasonality in a series, one must have data which covers the full cycle of the suspected seasonal effect, such as a full day (24 hours), a week, or a year. Here, the dataset covers roughly a full day; but it shows a consistent oscillation, without a clear upward or downward trend.

    Outliers in the Data

    Looking at the dataset, there don't appear to be any instances of exceptionally high or low exchange rates, suggesting that there are no major outliers. While there are several instances where rates differ from the immediate previous or next rates, such differences are minor and do not deviate significantly from the overall trend, and thus they can't be classified as outliers. An outlier would represent a significant jump or drop in the exchange rates, and there is no evidence of that in the provided data.

    In conclusion, the TTD exchange rate data for the day presented appears to be relatively stable with minimal fluctuation. The dataset does not suggest any clear evidence of seasonality, recurring trends or significant outliers. These findings are based only on the available data and should be interpreted carefully in the larger context of more extended periods and other impacting factors.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend

    Upon analysis of the provided data, the overall trend of exchange rates appears to be stable over the period. The rate seems to fluctuate between the narrow range of 0.196 to 0.200, signifying slight fluctuations but relatively stable rates in general. We didn't observe a clear trend of consistent increase or decrease in the rates.

    Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    As for seasonality or recurring patterns, it is a bit hard to establish with the given sample of the data. Given the narrow range of the data, seasonal fluctuations, if any, are relatively minor. Any determination of seasonal patterns would require a longer temporal scope for the data and considering factors such as recurring economic events, market cycle, or policy changes.

    Outliers

    With respect to outliers, the data seems to remain fairly consistent, and no notable outliers are detected, suggesting a relatively steady market condition without abrupt changes.

    External Factors

    As you requested not to consider external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, our analysis is based on the pattern of rate changes alone.

    Summary

    In summary, the exchange rates over this period remained relatively stable with minor fluctuations, keeping within a narrow range. No clear patterns or outliers were found in the provided data. This signifies a market condition that remained quite steady without sudden changes. However, a more thorough analysis might require considering multiple potential impacting factors and a larger dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    Overall Trend of exchange rates

    The given financial time-series data, from 19th February 2024 to 23rd February 2024, shows slight fluctuation in TTD exchange rates. The lowest exchange rate during these five days was approximately 0.19785 and the highest being around 0.19957. The exchange rates, however, haven't experienced any major increase or drastic fall, instead they remained rather stable within the stated range of 0.19785 - 0.19957.

    Seasonality and Recurring patterns

    Despite the fair stability, there is some degree of oscillation in the value, which appears to have a daily cadence. As an instance, a general rise could be observed around 02:00, and then a slight fall around the 20:00 mark for most days. However, this pattern is not strongly consistent and there are deviations from it, suggesting other factors, beyond this time-series data, could be at play for these rate modifications.

    Noteworthy Outliers

    Regarding outliers, a close study of the fluctuations shows that the data largely plays within a steady range and no dramatic spikes or falls that can be identified as genuine outliers. However, around 21:00 on 20th February 2024, the TTD rate reached its peak value for this dataset - 0.19957, which could be seen as an exception from the prevalent moderate fluctuations.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Overall Trend

    The exchange rates shown in the dataset fluctuates within a small range. The rates started from 0.19792 and ended on 0.19861. This implies that there is no significant upward or downward trend in the exchange rates over the timestamps covered in the dataset. It's relatively stable with minor fluctuations.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Considering the hourly fluctuation in rates, there's no clear indication of any seasonality or recurring pattern within this specific period. The rates fluctuate slightly throughout the entire period but do not demonstrate a consistent pattern that repeats at regular intervals. It might be useful to have data for a longer time period in order to accurately determine the presence of any seasonality or recurring patterns.

    3. Outliers

    The data provided here does not seem to contain any significant outliers. The exchange rates consistently fluctuate within a narrow range, with no sudden spikes or drops in value that would be indicative of outliers. Most values stayed within the 0.197 - 0.199 range. Any minor deviations from the average could potentially be due to normal market volatility rather than being true outliers.